Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Week 6 Picks 2025

The week before the 5 and 6 team districts kick off district play always brings many idles to the schedule. So we'll hunt for the games of note and know that the playoff deciding games are just around the corner. Speaking of the playoffs, wonder when TAPPS might release a bracket...

This Week: (Season: 21-12)

Colleyville Covenant Christian @ Dallas Covenant School -- The Covenant battle is the only game for a team in Division III District 2. The Cougars strong offensive showing against Southwest Christian provides some additional intrigue for their chances in Division III. At just 1-4 it doesn't look like the Cougars are top contender, but 48 points can not be ignored. Particularly since it came against a squad that allowed just 7 to Dallas Christian in a half. The Knights have appeared to be the team that might challenge Dallas Christian in the district slate for a few seasons now. Will this year be the time they push DC to the edge? This result will tell us a lot. Both squads were soundly defeated by FBA. Both squads have won just 1 complete game in 2025 (Covenant played only a half at John Paul II). Which teams offense of a week ago was a mirage and which was an indicator of contending status? This space leans home teams, but I think the Cougars offense is the best unit in this game and the Knight scored just 7 in last season's visit to Colleyville. Last week's performance for the Cougars is too much to ignore. So I'll take Colleyville Covenant in a high-scoring battle. Cougars win, 48-38.

Tyler Grace Community @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard were thoroughly dominated in last week's district opener at Regents. A season ago Brook Hill had the same problem, dropping the district opener and needing a rivalry win over the Cougars. They failed in that mission in 2024, falling to 0-2 to start the district slate. This led to a 4th place finish and a trip to All Saints in Round 1. The Cougars are also highly motivated to avoid that fate and having the district win over Brentwood in their pocket sets them up to almost guarantee a top 3 finish with a win this week. The Cougars won a 28-21 battle last year in Tyler. Neither offense has displayed the consistency to score repeatedly against quality teams. So a similar "tweener" score seems like the way to go here. When you don't have a strong opinion in this space, we lean home team. I look at the Cougars close defeat by FBA and think that team would win this one, but I can't see that level of production happening in Bullard. Guard win, 27-22.

Episcopal School of Dallas @ Bellaire Episcopal -- The battle of Episcopal has a different feel than a season ago. The Eagles have already secured 3 wins on the campaign, besting last season's mark. Though swapping Prestonwood for Bishop Dunne on the schedule does help that. The margin of defeat against All Saints though ballooned from 3 to 17. So its hard to say where the Eagles slot. We will find out very quickly in the opener of SPC 4A play. The Knights are just 2-3 on the season. Having narrowly survived Austin St. Michael's and suffering a defeat at The Woodlands Christian. For me that loss was a surprise and leaves SPC 4A wide open. ESD is the only squad with less than 2 losses and I just can't make them the favorite here. A season ago in Dallas, the Knights walked out with a 25-20 win. I see nothing that makes me think either team will overwhelm the other. So home team is the choice, especially given the length of the trip. Knights win, 33-27.

Canyon West Plains @ Argyle Liberty -- With so many idle weeks across the state during Week 6, it can make for some strange matchups. So the Wolves return last year's visit by Liberty to start October. The Warriors played just 1 home game in September and it was last week's domination of TCA. Liberty will have to make sure they do not look too far ahead to next week's Prestonwood showdown. The Warriors quickly dispatched the Wolves a season ago, 56-7. This year's Warriors may not be quite as good as last season's 12-1 state champions, but still have plenty of firepower. West Plains went on to run the table in district play and reach the state semifinals after getting boatraced by the Warriors. A 4-0 start to 2025 means West Plains has lost just once in its last 14 outings since that bludgeoning. So this should be closer than last year, but I think Liberty remains on top. Warriors close out an interesting one, 40-30.

San Antonio Holy Cross @ Boerne Geneva -- The Knights were undefeated heading into the state championship game in 2024. That squad seemed to be on a mission from the opening kickoff in August, and only a historic run by Dallas Christian stopped them. At the end of 2024, Holy Cross had lost just twice in their last 25 games. Both times state championship games to Dallas Christian. So entering 2025 its a long mountain to climb back to the top and they've not started with the same punch. Particularly, the loss to San Antonio Christian pointed to some things to improve for the Knights. That broke a string of 9 straight wins over the Lions. The Knights responded with 3 tidy wins to right the ship. This includes dominating New Braunfels Christian in the district opener again. The Eagles of Geneva reached a couple of title games in the last decade, but even those seasons had 4 losses. So it seems Geneva lands right in the middle of whatever pack their in. They won't be easily ousted though as many playoff opponents found out. The 4-1 start though includes 3 road wins and points to the Eagles being the Knights strongest opposition on the district schedule. That said, in 2024 it was a 61-7 win for the Knights and I don't see that margin having been cleared by the Eagles. Holy Cross wins, 42-21.

Tulia @ Lubbock Trinity Christian -- The Lions had some interesting swaps in the middle of the schedule. This week they switch Merkel from 2024 for Tulia. After back-to-back shutouts Stratford knocked Trinity's record down to 2-2. Historically, Stratford has been the better team compared to Tulia. The Lions all or nothing performance on defense though will need to be more like the nothing for a win this week. The Hornets are 2-3 but played a quality group of West Texas opponents, including one literally named West Texas. Notably, both squads played Floydada this year. The Lions pitched a 33-0 shutout while the Hornets controlled the game as well, 46-14. I think both defenses will be ahead of the offenses in this one, and it should come down to who can make a late play on offense. We'll take a slugfest going to the Lions, 16-10.

Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian @ Shiner St. Paul -- The last game of the week brings in a favorite of this space. The Cardinals consistently have one of the lowest 11-man enrollments in TAPPS. The numbers game catches up to them sometimes, but they play well every year no matter the numbers. The Cardinals rank 3rd all-time with 10 championships. Including 2 in Division III when TAPPS played just 3 11-man divisions. Things seemed to be a bit low with a 10-8 win over KIPP Sunnyside and a loss to Bay Area Christian, but the Cardinals evened the record at 2-2 with dominant wins over Corpus Christi John Paul and Katy St. John XXIII. Now they move into the non-Pope category of opponents. The Eagles finally won one for the southern members of Division II, claiming the title in 2022. It seems FBCA and Second Baptist have battled forever for the District 4 crown. Last year, the pair once again split their matchups with Fort Bend taking the district title but losing the playoff game. Last season started 1-4 and this season started 1-4 so maybe the Eagles have us right where they want us. The numbers game catches up to the Cardinals late in this one. Eagles win, 35-21. 

Quick Hits: (Season: 34-16)

Lubbock Christian over Prosper Richland
New Braunfels Christian over Austin Hill Country Christian
Frisco Legacy Christian over Addison Trinity Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Dallas Bishop Lynch
Grapevine Faith Christian over Fort Worth Lake Country Christian
Arlington Grace Prep over Austin Hyde Park 
Arlington Pantego Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Houston Kinkaid over Dallas St. Mark's
Tomball Concordia Lutheran over Houston St. Pius X
Houston St. Thomas over San Antonio Central Catholic

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