Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Week 10 Picks 2017

This Week: (Season: 52-15)

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Tigers are rolling into this one heading for the district showdown with DC next week. Not the shortest of road trips out to Brook Hill, but shouldn't be too much to overcome. The Tigers have been scoring all of the points in district play with a low output of 48 thus far. Having just scored 75 against TKG last week and knowing that the Guard managed just 3 against the same TKG team this one does not look promising for the Orange and Blue. The Guard will likely have their own big game against Tyler Grace next week to decide 4th. A huge home upset would put them right in the middle of things, but I can't see them slowing the Tigers to any real effect. I think they can hold them under Grace's 60, but Tigers win this one big. TCCH wins 50-7.

Tyler Grace Community @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Cougars have had a tough season and road upset would almost certainly put them in the playoffs. A loss and they'll have to play for 4th next week. The Crusaders started 6-0 before DC and TCCH combined to put up 125 points in the last two weeks. TKG can secure a minimum of 3rd place with a win to close out its regular season. Until the last 2 blowout defeats the Crusaders appeared to have turned around previous seasons defensive struggles allowing just 125 points in 6 wins. Then the meat of the district schedule hit and it did not go well. The Cougars defense does not appear to pack the punch of DC or TCCH so I expect TKG to score quite a few in this one. Will the better defense return for the home finale? I think somewhere in the middle, but enough Crusader points to win at home. TKG wins 42-20.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals have been rolling since a home loss to DC in game #2. Racking up 48 points in 5 in a row before a slight decrease of 38 last week against Grapevine Faith. FWC has allowed 2 TDs or more in just 3 of 8 games, and in one of those, the defense pitched a 2nd half shutout. 19 is the highest score anyone has reached against the defenders from North Richland Hills. The trend has clearly been up for the Eagles in recent seasons. The 6 wins already this year is the most for Southwest since 2008. The Eagles did not embarrass themselves against Midland Christian but also were not about to win the game at any point, but also have not been shutout since 2015 despite a tough district slate. How will the defense hold up against a Cardinals offense that has been scoring at will in its last 6? FWC scores too many to be caught at home. Cardinals win 41-16.

Midland Christian @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- Some might ask why I include certain games in this section? The reason is I know the most about the Division II teams and particularly those in Districts 1 and 2, so pretty much all those district games make the list. I usually try to talk up the matchup here too. I just don't see how the Eagles are going to hold up to the challenge posed by the Mustangs. FWC scored 50 in the first half against the Eagles. Its a long trip to Frisco from the Basin, but that rarely fazes the Mustangs. MCS scored 55 last year in Midland and despite injuries is a heavy favorite here. The Eagles were the victims of John Paul's broken losing streak and have only found the win column twice on the season. Legacy I'm sure looking forward to its pseudo bowl game at the Star in Frisco next week. MCS runs away 55-6.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Rice -- The defending state champion Lions find themselves locked into finishing no better than 3rd and heading on the road for round 1. A 4-4 campaign has seen Faith struggle to score points at times reaching just 14 and 13 in two district losses. The Lions defense gave them a chance against MCS holding the Mustangs to just 24 points. The Bulldogs (I was hoping for a more interesting mascot from a town called Rice), have shown great offensive prowess scoring at least 47 in each of their last 5. No common opponents to draw much from for this one, but I think the Lions defense is a better unit than many featured in that streak. However, I think the firepower proves too much. Lions not quite able to keep pace on the road. Rice wins 42-30.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Bishop Dunne -- The Warriors defense continues to impress allowing just 7 last week to current district frontrunner Bishop Lynch. Unfortunately for Liberty, the offense has not been able to produce performances enough to capture victory against a top opponent. The Falcons really took it on the chin at Bishop Lynch to open district play in September. They responded with impressive wins over TCA and Nolan. Much like Liberty, Dunne could not manage much offensively against Prestonwood. The two teams in this one combined to allow just 36 points to the Lions but managed to score just 6 between them. After holding Lynch to just 7 but not finding the end zone themselves, the Warriors would appear a possibility for a road let down here. However, I think the Liberty defense is a candidate for the best in TAPPS and should keep them in every game (except Gilmer I guess). If you're betting on this one, the under is the play (but don't bet on high-school sports). Dunne squeaks by at home 15-10.

Bishop Lynch @ Fort Worth Nolan -- The Vikings have been struggling to have that big season since Dunne emerged as a top contender. In some ways, Nolan and Dunne switched places in the District 1 pecking order. If they don't wind up 4th or 5th the Vikings will be a handful for a District 2 or 3 team in the playoffs. Nolan returns to action after besting TCA last week just 14-6, which is high scoring next to Liberty-Lynch. An upset here could vault Nolan to a chance at 3rd place with a likely defensive battle with Liberty on deck in Week 11. The Friars have controlled the district all season. Opening with a notable win at historic power Texas High and then really announcing themselves with a 41 point victory over Bishop Dunne. The Friars are allowing an average of just 6 points per game in district play and that number drops to just 4.25 points per game for all 8 games this season. I don't see how the Vikings can find enough points to take this one, maybe Michael is saving some to deploy when needed. Friars control the game on defense and win 33-6

San Antonio Holy Cross @ Austin Hyde Park -- The Knights travel to the Quarries for the last before the Austin schools separate to their own district in realignment. Holy Cross defense has carried the day this season, pitching 4 shutouts and holding 6 of 8 opponents to 10 or less. Those games account for the Knights' 6 wins. Even in the 2 losses, Holy Cross has allowed just 45 points total. The Panthers found their stride once they hit district play, securing a quality victory over St. Mary's Hall to start district and consolidating that with 3 more victories. A win here would set up a Week 11 match with Regents for the district crown. On the one hand, the Knights dominated San Antonio Christian while Hyde Park posted a more modest result. The roles flip when looking at St. Mary's Hall. I think the swing is around 25 points in this one. If Hyde Park can get there I think they win. If the Panthers are stuck well under that number like many Holy Cross opponents then the Knights will prevail. I'll take the Holy Cross defense to hold up. Knights win 21-14.

Quick Hits: (Season: 70-20)

Plano Prestonwood Christian over Plano John Paul II
Trinity Christian - Addison over Parish Episcopal
Tomball Concordia Lutheran over Houston St. Thomas
San Antonio St. Mary's Hall over Austin St. Michael's
Austin Regents over San Antonio Christian
Corpus Christi John Paul II over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Houston Westbury Christian
Houston Lutheran South over Victoria St. Joseph
Division V Semifinals
El Paso Cathedral over Tyler All Saints
Houston Village School over Austin St. Dominic Savio

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Week 9 Picks 2017

Now that the big realignment dominos have fallen (well in a few hours when most people read this), let's get back to football. District races begin to solidify and some final showdowns will be set up by this week's results. Which one of these picks will be the one to break the streak of 35 in a row? Someone snags a big win this week for sure.

This Week: (Season: 44-14)

Bullard Brook Hill @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers really distanced themselves in the 2nd half at TKG and this is the last obstacle in the way before a Week 11 game with TCCH. The Guard has had an up and down 3-3 campaign thus far and are a bit tough to figure out. On the one hand, the defense has appeared to be a competitive unit including 2 shutouts, holding a potent TKG offense to 28, and Mt. Vernon to just 21. The trouble has been some of those defensive outings have been backed by offensive performances of just 3 and 6. The Charger defense held TKG last week to just 13, its hard to see where the points are going to come from for Brook Hill. Football is curious sometimes though and strange things can happen. The Guard are responsible for the last district loss for DC, 22 wins ago. Chargers offense is just too much here. DC wins 42-13.

Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Crusaders did not look good defensively in allowing 50 to DC last week. This comes after showing their best defensive teams in a decade in a 6-0 start to the year. The odd TKG schedule sees this as just their 2nd road game. The Tigers announced themselves early with a road win over Grapevine Faith and have only solidified that status with a win over Houston St. Thomas and a huge blowout at Tyler Grace. If the TKG defense is closer to the one they showed in the lead up to the DC game they will have a chance to keep this one tight. If their defense is the one DC scored at will against in route to 50 then the Tigers will do the same. The Tigers have only been held under 30 by St. Thomas and Brock. TCCH may not quite be ready to challenge for the state title, but we won't really know that until they matchup in November. Not enough defense for the Crusaders to take the road challenge. Tigers win 40-21.

Carrollton Prince of Peace @ Tyler Grace Community -- It has been a disappointing season for the Cougars as they've found the win column only 2 times thus far and finally return to district play after the 60-0 drubbing put on them by TCCH. The Eagles promising non-district wins have given way to the typical struggles in the district campaign. Unable to repeat the Brook Hill victory from a year ago, this is the last shot at a district win for the Eagles. The dropped schedule of All Saints and the already scheduled district bye in Week 11 makes this the last chance at getting rid of that 0. The Cougars offense has not had the same punch as recent seasons in the important district games. A loss here would appear to make it nearly impossible to reach the postseason and it will already be very difficult to not finish 4th and draw the District 1 champion in Round 1. At times the Cougars offense has shown signs of past glories, such as 47 against state-ranked Malakoff and 42 against Waskom. However, the bagel against TCCH and slog to 17 at DC leave a bad taste. The Eagles have scored just 22 points in their last 5 games and it appears unlikely they can challenge Grace on the road here. Cougars win 42-8.

Midland Christian @ Wall -- The Mustangs take a holiday from district play for a match with the undefeated Hawks. Wall has dropped 78 and 64 on their opponents in their most recent outings and sets up a stiff test for MCS. The Hawks entered last year's game with 2 losses before falling to the Mustangs 41-36. This Hawks squad appears to be a step better and the game is in Wall this season. The Mustangs appear to be up a notch too making for an intriguing pairing. The Mustangs have started a bit slow in their last two district games and such a start might be fatal to their chances this week. The MCS defense has only allowed more than 30 twice on the season, once in week 1 and once to FW All Saints who we expect to be right in the mix in Division I. If the MCS defense is up to the task I think the Mustangs will get to their usual 25 to 30 points. I think the Hawks just edge them at home, winning 35-29.

Fort Worth Christian @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Cardinals enjoyed a week off from district play by dominating Greenhill 57-7. The Lions thoroughly controlled a matchup with Legacy last week but were not as dominant as FWC had been the week before. A home game for Faith is critical here as they risk losing both games within the presumed top 3. An FWC win would almost certainly set up a district title game with MCS to close the season and relegate Faith to a Round 1 road trip. The Lions offense has struggled thus far against better opposition and managed at most 21 in their 3 losses. Getting back to the state title game would start with this win for Faith. The Cardinals have scored more than 40 in all 6 wins but managed just 14 in the loss to DC. That's where this game bends for me. If FWC can get to 30 they win. If they are stuck around 20 by Faith they're beatable. I'll take the Cardinals offense in a close one. FWC wins 31-28.

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- Another battle of Eagles will likely decide 4th place and the final playoff spot in District 1. The Southwest Eagles have looked much better on the season so far with a 5-2 mark compared with Legacy's 2-5 record. This is a challenging choice with the relative lack of common opponents. Southwest did down Colleyville Covenant 37-7 while Legacy went down 22-16 in their matchup. Legacy has allowed 102 points in two district losses to Faith and FWC but did look more competitive against Faith after going down 40 in the 1st half at FWC. Especially at home, with the Eagles (Legacy) making the long (by DFW standards) trip, Eagles (Southwest) win 40-20.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Bishop Lynch -- The Friars have controlled the district and division after losing Week 10 last year to Nolan. Including a dominant blowout of Bishop Dunne and much closer but still impressive defeat of Prestonwood, Lynch has run off 12 in a row dating back to last season's title. The Warriors defense has been among the best in the district, and maybe the top unit in the district holding 5 of their 7 opponents to 14 or fewer points. The 26 surrendered to a struggling Parish squad is not the best omen for taking on this group of Friars. All signs continue to point to an All Saints-Lynch showdown, but there are many hurdles left for both. The Warriors defense will keep this one interesting for most, but Lynch pulls away in the 2nd half. Friars win 31-7.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Bishop Dunne -- The Falcons have rebounded well after the blowout loss to Lynch, rolling off 3 district wins in a row. The winner here has a clear inside track to 2nd place and staying far away from the 4th place prize of hosting FW All Saints. Its a different season than normal for the Lions. Not to say their offense is anemic by any means, but the defense has carried the day thus far. The offense has struggled at times with only 14 and 13 against Liberty and Lynch. The defense has allowed just 33 points in their last 5 games. FW All Saints scored over half of all points the Lions have allowed this season. Dunne has allowed just 35 points in 3 district games since the Bishop Lynch debacle. The defenses should carry the day here and expect a big turnover and defensive score to turn the game. Falcons sneak by at home 24-21.

Shiner St. Paul @ Hallettsville Sacred Heart -- The last two Division IV champions (5 years between them) match up in a big district showdown. The Cardinals have run out to a 7-0 start including close wins over Geneva and Brentwood. The Indians have struggled to a 2-5 start and have struggled offensively, including being shut out twice and managing just 14, 14, and 17 in their other 3 losses. The St. Paul defense is not the unit you want to see when needing to find your offensive stride. Only likely Division II playoff team has scored more than 17 on the Cardinals all year. Expect the small school that can to move to 8-0 this week. Cardinals win 35-7.

Quick Hits: (Season: 63-16)

Fort Worth Nolan over Trinity Christian - Addison
Parish Episcopal over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Pius X over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
San Antonio Central Catholic over Brownsville St. Joseph
Austin Hyde Park over San Antonio Christian
Austin Regents over San Antonio St. Mary's Hall
Houston Lutheran South over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Dallas Shelton over Dallas First Baptist
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Austin Brentwood Christian over Schertz John Paul II
Waco Reicher over Bryan Brazos Christian

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Week 8 Picks 2017

The picks column briefly considered retirement after last week's 18-0 performance, but the tens of readers cannot be let down. Next week we'll stir the pot with realignment talk and the district standings will begin to solidify as we had to the playoffs. As always, feel free to chime in with your own thoughts. See you all on the road to basketball season...

This Week: (Season: 36-14)

Dallas Christian @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Chargers pounded Prince of Peace last week to regain their footing in district play. The Crusaders have reached this one undefeated. DC and TKG have met numerous times on the gridiron going back to before the creation of TAPS. Games played in near monsoon conditions, scoreless games to the final 6 minutes, various tales of field conditions on both sides of various match-ups, OT battles, 96-yard punts in playoff games. There are more stories than I can mention here. What tale will we tell about this game? The Crusader defense seems to have finally made the step forward to keep up with their offense though there are still signs of weakness. The Chargers defense did not rise to the occasion against All Saints and though TKG may not be as difficult a task they provide a stern test nonetheless. The 1st half Chargers that jumped to leads against Grace and @FWC should be enough to win this one, but they probably need to not see the 2nd half Chargers that saw the lead @FWC nearly evaporate and somewhat oozed through the later stages against Grace. If the Crusaders can score into the 30s here it will be a tough road to Tyler for the Chargers. DC is able to hold them off though and wins 31-21.

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Carrollton Prince of Peace -- The Tigers have moved up to #2 in the TAPPS Coaches' Poll edging past DC and appear to be a strong contender for a deep playoff run. The two big matchups with DC and TKG loom ahead on the district schedule for TCCH. The Eagles took an early deficit against DC last week and never approached recovering. The Eagles have simply not yet been able to raise their level to the standards of District 2 on a consistent basis. Upset wins have been snagged on occasion and likely will be again, but a path that leads to the Tigers dropping 60 and a shutout at Grace and then backing that with a loss to Prince of Peace seems very unlikely. If the Eagles turn the ball over it could be a big number for the Tigers. TCCH wins easily, 62-6.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs continue to point to toward a big December and see a visit from another Eagles. MCS did not look as dominant as we might have expected in last week's road test at Grapevine Faith. However, district games on the road always provide some unique challenges and frequently lead to closer games. Maybe some dents in the Mustang armor, but still plenty of firepower for the Mustangs going the rest of the way. The Eagles have definitely been on the uptick and a 5-1 start to the season is no exception. However, this matchup sees their first game against a Division II for this season. In their 4 game winning streak, the Eagles have allowed just 21 points to 4 Division III opponents. They will need to be every bit that good and more to do the same to the Mustangs. The Mustang defense should continue its good form after hold Faith to just 7 points in each half last week. MCS wins handily, 48-12.

Fort Worth Christian @ Dallas Greenhill School -- The Cardinals scored early and often in their district-opening win over Frisco Legacy. The Hornets should provide a slightly tougher test but are tricky to place with only playing 6 SPC opponents so far. Greenhill dropped a decision against Trinity Valley who had lost earlier in the year to Southwest Christian. The pecking order I believe to be established in District 1 where FWC, MCS, and Faith are clearly separated from Legacy and Southwest leads me to think the Cardinals are well ahead of the Hornets on paper. Both teams played FW Country Day earlier this season. FWC was not challenged in a 41-0 victory and Greenhill handled them easily with a 31-7 win. The Cardinals offense has scored at least 41 in their 5 wins and just 14 in their lone loss. A similar output to the wins should lead to a clear victory here. FWC wins 42-16.

San Antonio Holy Cross @ Austin Regents -- The rare game between teams with the same mascot and it's not the Eagles. The Regents Knights have won 19 in a row in the regular season and are working a streak of 2 shutouts and allowing just 32 points in their last 4 games combined. Holy Cross was the ruler of the District 3 roost before Regents current run began. These Knights have long been defensive stalwarts and this season is no different. In their 6-1 start, the Holy Cross Knights have not allowed 11 points in a game and have pitched 4 shutouts. Some alarm might have been triggered by only scoring 17 points against Cornerstone but then were erased with a 43-0 shutout of San Antonio Christian last week. So neither team has allowed a point in October. The relatively recent rise of Regents in the classification means these two have only met 6 times previously with the road team winning the 5 regular season games. Regents won the last two meetings including last year's semifinal. The defenses should carry the day here, and don't expect either team to run away. Regents win 22-10.

Fort Worth Nolan @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions fell in a big road matchup with Bishop Lynch last week and have had some uncharacteristicc struggles on offense this season. Scoring just 14 and 13 in district games with BL and Liberty. To compare the Lions scored 57 and 45 in those matchups last year. How do we then adjust expectations for this game against the Vikings? Prestonwood took down Nolan 54-36 last year. The Vikings have looked good on offense against the lower portion of the district, against JP2 and Parish. They've also struggled to slow Prestonwood in recent meetings. The Lions should find enough of a stride at home to take this one but expect the Vikings to hang around a while. I'd say 3 Lion turnovers would make this one tight to the end. I do not think it will happen though. Lions win at home 45-20.

Bishop Dunne @ Parish Episcopal -- The Falcons returned from their massive defeat against Lynch too dominate TCA last week. The Panthers have struggled all year but showed signs of progress dropping only a 5 point decision against Liberty last week. The Parish defense has not been up to the standard of District 1 so far allowing 129 points in 3 district games. The Falcons may be finding their stride after some out of state opponents and that awful showing against Bishop Lynch. The Parish offense will need to show a form it has not shown against TAPPS opposition this year to win this one. Maybe a little blue field magic will bring this one closer, but I think the Falcons run away with this one. Dunne wins 49-13.

Sherman Texoma Christian vs. Dallas Shelton School @ Plano John Paul II -- The Chargers earn their spot in the picks with a 5-0 start for the first time in program history and the first 5 game win streak in program history. The Eagles (another one) are new to the 11-man football scene in just their 2nd district campaign after a long run as a Fall Soccer power. Texoma has matched last year's win total with a 4-1 start. Interestingly, the Eagles defeated First Baptist last year and then took a 39 point defeat last week from First Baptist for their first loss this year. The Eagles have nursed home a couple of victories against Division V opponents and may not be up to Shelton's level for this one. The Chargers have won some close ones but ran away with a victory over the newly named Lone Star North (formerly Gainesville State School) with 47 points last week. Chargers run away again winning 42-12.

Quick Hits: (Season: 54-16)

Argyle Liberty Christian over Trinity Christian - Addison
Bishop Lynch over Plano John Paul II
Grapevine Faith Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Austin Hyde Park over San Antonio Cornerstone
San Antonio St. Mary's Hall over San Antonio Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Houston Lutheran South
Waco Reicher over Marble Falls Faith
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Arlington Pantego Christian
Shiner St. Paul over San Antonio St. Gerard
Boerne Geneva over Austin Brentwood Christian

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Week 7 Picks 2017

Just 2 weeks from realignment and all but the smallest Division I districts reach district play. The common opponents will start to pile up and we'll know more in a couple of weeks. Good luck and safe travels!
This Week: (Season: 28-14)
Carrollton Prince of Peace @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers return to district play after being defeated soundly by All Saints. The TCCH domination of Tyler Grace takes a bit of shine off the district-opening win for DC. The DC vs. TCCH matchup waits until Week 11 so both teams will be looking to pile up wins and not need a win that night to secure a playoff spot. The Eagles were shutout last week against Brook Hill to start district play at 0-2. Prince of Peace had scored a big upset in that game a year ago. The DC defense has been able to control district opponents during the current district winning streak. In their last 14 district games, TCCH reached the highest score for any district opponent last year with 27. They lost the game by 35. It seems incredibly unlikely that the POP offense will be the team to put up bunches of points on the road at DC. There's always room for the unexpected, but I don't see it here. Chargers win 42-6.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Crusaders see their first road game of the season in Week 7 after a 5-0 start. The Guard has had an up and down 2-2 start, but against opposition that is difficult to match-up to TKG's opposition. Its unclear to this point if Brook Hill will be a team fighting for 1st or fighting for 4th in district play. The 43 points allowed to Houston St. John's is probably most concerning for the Guard defense, but holding a 6-0 Mt. Vernon squad to just 21 suggests Brook Hill is far from playing with an empty deck. The Crusaders have been much better defensively than in recent seasons. Last year TKG allowed 213 points in their first 5 games. This year just 125 against the same 5 opponents. The usually strong Crusader offense is back though maybe not on 91 point form from a year ago. Gorman squeaks by a game Brook Hill squad, 42-30.
Tyler Grace Community @ Irving Cistercian -- The Cougars have to still be feeling the sting of the 60 spot put on them in a home district game and heading to a 1-5 start to the season. A somewhat lengthy trip (at least for us non-west Texas folk) awaits them to visit the Hawks. Cistercian has started 5-1 against mostly SPC opposition holding 4 of 6 opponents to under 20 points. The Cougars nearly took down a state-ranked Malakoff squad before falling behind DC and then being dominated by TCCH. The Hawks have wins against teams that are probably behind the likes of Malakoff but the size of defeat by TCCH leaves many questions about Grace and Cistercian seems a possibility to be able to capitalize on those deficiencies, particularly at home. I think the Cougars sneak this one out though. Just enough offense to win, 30-27.
Midland Christian @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Mustangs favored status was further cemented with last week's dominant victory for All Saints at DC. Earlier MCS took down a Brock squad that went on to beat both Faith and TCCH in consecutive weeks. The Mustang defense appears to be a tall order for the Lions to overcome. MCS held Brock to just 9 points and next week they put up 42 on the Lions. This one goes a long way to determining who is in the top 2 of District 1 and Faith gets both MCS and FWC at home. Faith has not appeared to be quite up to the standard of last year's state championship team. Mustangs overpower the Lions 42-20.
Frisco Legacy Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals have dropped only the DC game entering district play. The Eagles have really struggled in the past 3 seasons after losing close games to seemingly the entirety of District 2 in 2014. A road game at FWC does not look like the ideal place to try to get on track. The Cardinals 4 wins have not come against the strongest of opposition it appears, but FWC will undoubtedly be in the mix come November. I just can not see where the struggling Legacy offense finds much of the end zone in this one. Cardinals run away 40-12.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Bishop Lynch -- The big game of the week in District 1. After the Friars pounded Bishop Dunne this was known to be the next big task for Lynch. The Friars have not lost since Week 10 last year to FW Nolan. The Lions have looked its usual dominant self on offense but perhaps hasn't shown the strongest defense, but also have only allowed 7 points in the last three games. So perhaps the Lions have turned a corner there. Lynch played a surprisingly low scoring game against TCA last week maybe indicating the first sign of weakness. The Friars would be in a prime position for the top playoff spot with wins over Dunne and Prestonwood in their pocket. If the Lions can score in the 40s I think they will upset the Friars. However, I think Lynch will hold them in check. Friars win 35-21.
Boerne Geneva @ San Antonio St. Gerard -- The Eagles at 4-1 enter off their loss to small school juggernaut Shiner St. Paul. Last year Geneva upset St. Paul on their way to a 9-1 regular season. The Royals finished 1-9 a year ago and have historically struggled to raise their game to match the quality opposition. Already 2 wins this season for St. Gerard and a much better showing defensively against Sacred Heart than in the past. The Eagles will still be too much for the Royals to overcome, but expect St. Gerard to hold them below last year's 47 point total. Geneva wins 35-8.
San Antonio Christian vs. San Antonio Holy Cross @ Harlandale Memorial Stadium -- With Regents off last week, Holy Cross positioned itself at 2-0 and a logical contender for 2nd in District 3. The Knights need this one to set up a battle with Regents next week for the driver's seat in the southern half of Division II. Regents appears to be the class of the district but the Lions have reached 2-0 as well. Neither the Lions nor their opponents have scored 30 yet this season and the Knights have done so only once. Expect the defenses to carry the day, and Holy Cross has allowed just 26 points in 6 games. Knights slide by in a trench battle, 17-6. 
Quick Hits: (Season: 44-16)
Bishop Dunne over Trinity Christian - Addison 
Argyle Liberty Christian over Parish Episcopal
Fort Worth Nolan over Plano John Paul II
Austin Regents over San Antonio Cornerstone
Houston Lutheran South over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Fort Worth All Saints over Pearland Shadow Creek
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Arlington Grace Prep
Waco Reicher over Central Texas Christian
Shiner St. Paul over Schertz John Paul II
Tyler All Saints over Irving The Highlands

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Week 6 Picks 2017

Another week of district play will undoubtedly see a few blowouts and a few barnburners. The downhill stretch run starts next week. Who will position themselves to lead the pack into the final run to the playoffs? The picks are surging after an undefeated week in the top section in Week 5.

This Week: (Season: 25-10)

Fort Worth All Saints @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers took a big victory 35-17 to open district play against Tyler Grace. The loss of Tyler All Saints from the district slate opens up this slot on the schedule to slide in a different All Saints. The Saints have staked their claim to a de facto District title by beating Prestonwood, TCA, and Nolan to open the season. Bishop Lynch will have plenty to say about that in the playoffs, but backing those wins up with a victory at Midland Christian certainly stamps All Saints as a Division I contender. The Charger defense is where they have won games in recent years, and last week's early stops put Grace in a hole, and then they never led in the game. The lead is critical for the Chargers in this one. The Saints offense is likely to score more than a few every time they take the field, averaging 47 points a game. Trying to run them down from behind seems to be a fool's errand. The author of the picks has a reputation to uphold. Chargers win 42-39.

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars took a tough road loss to open district play at DC last week. The Tigers sat on a bye before opening district play this week. The Cougars defense has struggled so far this season in Grace's 1-4 start allowing 28 in every game and more than 42 in weeks 2 through 4. The Tigers promising start hit a bit of a bump with a loss to Brock. Early returns suggested some offensive prowess that last year's 5th place squad did not possess. All signs point to a high scoring contest. An 0-2 start for Grace would put them in a tight spot to stay out the possible 4th place trip to Midland or in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. There is probably more on the line for the Cougars in this one, and the game is in Tyler. I'll take Grace 42-39.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Carrollton Prince of Peace -- The Eagles were not able to stick with TKG as they did last year but played reasonably well in 2 non-district wins. The Guard had an up and down 2-2 non-district slate to lead into their district opener. An 0-2 start for POP would make it very difficult for them to reach the playoffs with DC and TCCH still to play. Brook Hill scored 40+ in its two wins and 21 or less in the two losses. The Eagles rushing attack makes the lead critical to success or failure for both them and their opponents. Will the Guard be able to squash the Eagles rally early or will the Eagles hold the Guard offense in check as they did a year ago? Brook Hill managed just 7 points in last year's home defeat but still reached the playoffs. If the Guard score 30 in this one, they win easily. If the Eagles keep them in range, they will probably surprise us again as they did last year. Brook Hill finds its offensive stroke and wins 38-16.

Fort Worth Nolan @ Bishop Dunne -- The Falcons took their worst defeat since a shutout playoff loss in 2013 last week at Bishop Lynch. The Vikings are off to a better start than recent seasons including a dominant victory over Parish Episcopal last week. Nolan's defense allowed just 15 points in their two wins but 108 in their two losses. Can the Vikings hold the Falcons in check the way Lynch did? Unlikely that the Nolan defense is up to that standard. A win here for Nolan would get them a 2-0 start in district and a home game with JP2 next week. A prime playoff seeding seems to await the winner with Lynch already out of Dunne's way and Nolan poised for a 3-0 start. The Dunne offense I think responds at home following last weeks drubbing. Falcons win 35-20.

Parish Episcopal @ Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions offense was held to just 14 points by a potent Liberty defense to open district play. This after non-district outings of scoring 50, 48, and 41. The 50 came against All Saints who we feel is a definite contender for the title while the jury may still be out on Liberty. The Panthers defense allowed 45 to Nolan in last week's road defeat. Two road games provide a tough start to any district schedule, but even more so in District 1. The Panther's offense is going to have to be much better to outpace Prestonwood. Replicating Liberty's defensive performance in Plano would appear to be too difficult a task for Parish. Prestonwood runs away with this one 42-7.

Lubbock Trinity Christian @ Willow Park Trinity Christian -- The Lions have begun to make inroads on the football scene after years of basketball prowess. A strong early defensive showing before last week's loss to Lubbock Christian indicates the strength for Lubbock. The Eagles of Parker County dominated Lake Country to open district play and look again to be one to figure into the late playoff picture in Divisions III or IV. Willow Park's offense has scored at least 46 in 4 of 5 outings. I do not think the Lions defense has reached the heights needed to take this road challenge. Eagles win 43-14.

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Austin St. Dominic Savio -- The Legacy Eagles travel to Division V opponent Savio after starting 1-3. The three losses have come by just 14 points though. The Savio Eagles (really people stop choosing Eagles for the mascot) opened 0-3 including two losses to Division III opponents. Both teams have been unable to produce significant offensive outputs except for their blowout wins. Neither has appeared to be a sieve defensively, and that makes this for an intriguing pairing. Legacy needs to show some signs of improvement to find a district win and a playoff spot, while Savio needs to score some wildcard points to reach the Division V playoffs. Savio takes this one at home 22-20.

Quick Hits: (Season: 37-13)

Fort Worth Christian over TACA
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Colleyville Covenant
San Antonio St. Mary's over Austin Hyde Park
Argyle Liberty Christian over Plano John Paul II
Bishop Lynch over Trinity Christian - Addison
Arlington Oakridge over Fort Worth Country Day
Houston Christian over Episcopal School of Dallas
Tomball Concordia Lutheran over Houston Lutheran South
Austin Brentwood Christian over Hallettsville Sacred Heart
Houston Northland Christian over The Woodlands Christian