The road has reached its end once again. There have been a few twists and turns. Some expected participants (TCCH, Regents, Dunne), a few newcomers (Lake Country, Geneva, Willow Park), and some we wrote off earlier but they got here anyway (Lynch, St. Paul). There year includes entirely too many Eagles, but interestingly all three are in their first 11-man state final. TAPPS will be streaming the games this year on tapps.biz, for the low price of $14.99 per game. You can also purchase access to all 4 for $36. Special shout to the Tornadoes of Lone Star North and the Defenders of Austin Veritas for reaching the 6-man title game with interesting mascots. Its too much for me to do 6-man every week so I'm not going to jump in the state finals, but best of luck and congratulations to those programs on a fantastic season. Good luck and safe travels to Waco.
Division I: Dallas Bishop Lynch vs. Dallas Bishop Dunne -- Friday 7:00 PM -- The Friars and Falcons met for the title just 2 seasons ago. That season the Friars had finished 5th in the always tough District 1 before upsetting Prestonwood in the semifinals. In 2016, the Falcons had just squeaked out a 4th place finish in the same district after a 5-5 regular season. This year, Bishop Lynch has taken a similar path to the final. The Friars exploded for 50 points in the Week 10 surprise over Prestonwood but still wound up 4th after losing to Parish and Dunne in the district slate. They appeared to be in deep trouble last week against Liberty before a 27 point 4th quarter paced them to a 65-45 victory. The Falcons "Red Swarm" defense has controlled the opposition all year, even in defeat. In Bishop Dunne's 3 losses the opponent scored just 17, 19, and 17. Only Parish last week managed 3 touchdowns against the Falcons this year. No one else reached 20. Not Desoto, not St. Pius X (twice), not Prestonwood, and not Bishop Lynch. How the Friars get on the scoreboard is the main question for this one. If they find the 65 point form of last week or the 50 point form from the Prestonwood game, even if they don't post that many the Falcons will have a hard time keeping pace. However, if the Falcons do what they do to most teams and turn them over and stifle a rushing attack they may only need 17 to win. Falcons defense holds strong and they repeat the result from Oct. 26. Dunne wins their 5th state title 21-14.
Division II: Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill vs. Regents School of Austin -- Saturday 7:00 PM -- Once the brackets came out, the list of expected finalists in 2018 started with the Tigers and Knights. The Tigers have been the clear favorites for the 2018 title since they beat Dallas Christian in the 2017 regular season. The Knights are in their 3rd consecutive state title game having fallen to Grapevine Faith in 2016 and these Tigers in 2017. Regents dropped a lone game on the season to San Antonio Central Catholic. The first regular season loss for the Knights since 2015. They rebounded nicely with no opponent passing 18 points after that. The Knights were held to under 34 just once in that strech and only 3 times in 12 games this season. They will need at least that many point and probably more to track down the potent Tigers attack. TCCH looks to complete the 14-0 perfect season and capture a 2nd straight state title. Only Bishop Lynch and Melissa have kept the Tigers under 30 and the same two are the only ones to play the Tigers to closer than 21 points. Against Division II opposition the Tigers have been overwhelming, winning by an average score of 51.75 to 9.5. They've won the three playoff games by a combined 154-14. Regents probably has the best defense among those opponents and maybe learned a thing or two last year. I just can't see it being enough. Tigers win their 6th state title, 40-20.
Division III: Willow Park Trinity Christian vs. Geneva School of Boerne -- Friday 12:00 PM -- The Eagles claim their first state title...ok I have more than that, but it is Eagles vs. Eagles and both in their 1st 11-man state championship game. The Eagles have been an up and coming program, winning at least 10 games in all 3 seasons they've been in an 11-man district. This year they dropped 3 of their first 4 but to top programs, including Division II semifinalist Second Baptist. Against Division III and smaller opponents Geneva is undefeated, including a 38-6 pounding of Division IV finalist Shiner St. Paul. No one in the division has managed to score more than 19 either. The Eagles of Parker County have posted a matching 10-3 record and also have yet to lose to a Division III opponent. They dealt Coram Deo their only 2 losses of the season including last weeks semifinal victory. Trinity has won offensive games against good teams (37-14 over Lubbock Christian) they've won defensive games (13-7 over Coram Deo) and they've won blowouts (42-7 over Pantego). These are both well rounded teams and this should be a tight game. Willow Park Trinity Christian claims their 1st state title, 30-27.
Division IV: Fort Worth Lake Country Christian vs. Shiner St. Paul -- Saturday 12:00 PM -- One team is in its 10th state final. The other in its 1st. Shiner St. Paul is a favorite of this space for playing great 11-man football for years despite an enrollment below that of many 6-man programs. This year it seemed the good run for the Cardinals had come to an end. After reaching 5 out of 8 state finals, the Cardinals started 0-7. They were dominated by Geneva, who they beat the year before. Managed just 7 points against the Austin Saints. After finally reaching the win column they were held to 7 in defeat again by Halletsville Sacred Heart. Then after a 1-8 start, the Cardinals won 4 in a row including 3 playoff games and avenging the loss to Sacred Heart. I'm not sure what to make of this bunch other than never count out a champ. The Eagles have reached their 1st state final after an 8-4 season. Most thought First Baptist would be the one in this slot, but the Eagles soared past the Saints with 56 points. With that blowout, the Eagles have not played a close game late since their loss to Colleyville Covenant. There is actually a common opponent for these two. Way back in week 2, the Eagles fell to Central Texas Christian 15-14. Those Lions provided the opposition in St. Paul's first win of the season, 34-13 in Week 8. I'm not sure this is much to go on, but I don't foresee either team controlling this one from the kickoff. Should be an exciting finish and that is what the Cardinals are great at, exciting close finishes in state championship games. Cardinals capture their 7th state title, 28-26.
Season: 84-22
Quick Hits: 102-28
So we reach the end of another season. Thank you all for reading, participating, and indulging my quirks in these picks each week. Hopefully we'll be back next season, as once Sunday hits everyone's undefeated again.
Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Semifinal Playoff Picks 2018
The semis are here. Who will finish their journey to state? We start the week with a chance for 4 of 8 finalists to be the Eagles. Hopefully we avoid that. Can anyone surprise us more than Liberty's upset of Prestonwood? Good luck and safe travels.
Division I
Dallas Parish Episcopal School vs. Dallas Bishop Dunne High School @ SMU -- When we haven't been pushing Prestonwood as the favorite in the top division we've had the Falcons as the favorite in Division I. Of course Bishop Lynch slid in and grabbed a state title one year when we were hyping Dunne and Prestonwood. The Falcons have won 6 in a row since losing a national TV game at St. Pius. Dunne avenged that loss last week with a 35-0 1st quarter to pace to a regional win. The "Red Swarm" defense has lived up to billing never allowing 20 points in any game this season, including holding these Panthers to 7 in their meeting on Oct. 12. The Parish offense will have to find a way around this dominant unit to reach the final. The Panthers have had an up and down season at times, dominating the likes of Fort Worth Christian and notching a win over Bishop Lynch, but then also dropping games to Liberty when the Warriors were not going well. The Panthers shouldn't get blown out by any means as they held the Falcons to 16 in their first meeting. However, I thought that about St. Pius X last week. If Parish can find a way to score in the high 20s the Falcons offense should have trouble matching that. I just don't see the Dunne defense getting picked apart in game 13 after their dominant season. Dunne wins a trench battle, 22-8.
Dallas Bishop Lynch High School vs. Argyle Liberty Christian School @ Irving -- The Warriors stunned us all by sending Prestonwood home in round 2. The Liberty defense posted an amazing season last year that led us to think they could be a surprise team in the playoffs. It turns out we were a year early. The Warriors started just 1-3 with the win being a rain shortened shutout, but over a notable opponent in Brock. Included in those 3 losses was a 49-20 drubbing at the hands of Prestonwood. The Warriors would reach 2-4 after Nolan put up another 49 on Warriors defense in the district opener. It just didn't seem to be Liberty's year. They've won 6 in a row since including last weeks revenge win over Prestonwood. The Friars figured to be a contender in Division I, but maybe in the 2nd group behind the trio of Dunne, Prestonwood, and St. Pius. Well, only Dunne remains of that group and the Friars are still standing. The Friars chances appeared to take a substantial hit when they lost the district opener to Parish and Dunne forced them to 0-2 in the district slate. Then despite digging an early hole Lynch responded with a 50-40 shocker of undefeated Prestonwood. On tiebreakers though the Friars still finished 4th, but the Friars won their most recent state title from a 5th place finish. If the Friars can score like they have in their big wins (Prestonwood, Nolan, MCS, St. Thomas) then they will be a tough out for the Warriors. If the Liberty defense can produce an outing like last week, they will be a similar mountain for the Friars. I think Lynch is the better team, but they've struggled in close games this year. Friars squeak past the Warriors 30-27.
Division II
Fort Worth Christian School vs. Cedar Hill Trinity Christian School @ Grand Prairie -- The Cardinals dominated Dallas Christian defensively last week, scoring first and never relinquishing that lead. DC managed just a 1st half field goal and a trick play touchdown in the 2nd half. While the Cardinals offense hasn't been a highlight unit all season, they feature one of the Division's best playmakers at QB. They've also run off 6 in a row since falling to Parish Episcopal in the non-district. While the defense has led them to key victories over Faith and DC. It almost got them in trouble seeing Brook Hill score 50 in the playoff opener. The Tigers have been the favorites for this year's title since probably Week 10 of last season and nothing in the current 12-0 campaign has changed that. A season opening win over DI semifinalist Bishop Lynch continues to look better each week. A blowout of St. Thomas looks more impressive after St. Thomas took their district title over St. Pius. The Brook Hill team that scored 50 at FWC, scored just 12 against TCCH. While FWC features one of the top playmakers, the Tigers feature 4 or 5 of the best playmakers in Division II. Could there be an upset? The Cardinals defense will have to lead the way and keep the Tigers out of the endzone. Maybe a short field or two could stem the tide. The Tigers are just too much on paper though. TCCH goes back to the final, 40-21.
Houston Second Baptist School vs. Regents School of Austin @ Brenham -- Regents and Second Baptist has been the expected South matchup for a couple of seasons. While the Knights and Eagles squared off in the regular season for two straight years, someone always got in the way of the playoff meeting. The Knights will look to return to the Division II Final for the 3rd consecutive season, having lost to Grapevine Faith and then being handled by TCCH last year. The regular season win streak fell for Regents in a surprise loss to San Antonio Central Catholic. They posted their usual two victories over a competitive Holy Cross squad and have held the opposition to 20 or less in all 10 of their wins. The Eagles bring their usual potent offense to the 3rd round having posted 93 points in 2 playoff victories. Last season the Knights held that attack to just 10 points and the playoff defeats have come when the Eagles offense has gone MIA. Just 9 points in last year's loss to Hyde Park, 10 in the 2016 loss to Holy Cross. 18 and 17 in the 2 playoff defeats before that. Second Baptist needs a big output to pass by Regents and take their shot at TCCH. The Knights I think are too much for the Eagles. Regents gets a 3rd shot, wins 30-17.
Division III
Willow Park Trinity Christian Academy vs. Flower Mound Coram Deo Academy @ Pennington Field -- These two met just three weeks ago with the Eagles taking a 20-14 road victory. Trinity has ascended the 11-man ranks very quickly, reaching the semifinals in all three seasons on the large field. McKinney Christian ousted the Eagles last year. The Lions struggled in 11-man until 2016 and now have secured at least 8 wins in three straight seasons. The 2018 Lions already have 11 wins and just the lone loss to these Eagles. Since that loss in Week 11 the Lions have rolled off 94 points in 2 playoff wins. Just 4 teams have held Coram Deo under 30 points. One is Shelton who the Lions posted 42 on the playoffs. Division II Frisco Legacy held the Lions to 14, and the Trinity's, Lubbock and Willow Park held the Lions down. The Eagles need to repeat that effort to reach the final. The Eagles offense is no slouch either, being only limited by Coram Deo among Division III opposition. I think in the rematch the offenses will show a little more prowess than in their first meeting. Look for a high scoring affair with Coram Deo claiming revenge, 41-35.
Geneva School of Boerne vs. League City Bay Area Christian @ Giddings -- The Eagles have been a force in whatever division they've been in, playing at least 12 games every season since 2012 outside of a transition season from 6-man to 11-man (they went undefeated against that outlaw schedule too). This year they've won 8 in a row after a 1-3 start, including 110 points in 2 playoff games. Only Shiner St. Paul held the Eagles under 40 during the win streak and that was just 38. The Broncos sport a matching 9-3 record after losing their first 3. Only Northland managed more than 14 against the Broncos among the 9 wins. Both teams limited TSD to just 2 touchdowns making me expect a defensive struggle in this one. Eagles finally reach a state final, winning 20-12.
Division IV
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian School vs. Dallas First Baptist Academy @ Pennington Field -- TAPPS smallest division brings us another Eagles. Lake Country struggled in the non-district slate going just 3-4, but have allowed only 34 points in their last 5 games including 4 DIV opponents. The Eagles have always tested themselves in the non-district leading to some less than stellar records, but multiple playoff appearances. The Saints have found their niche after school changes lowered their enrollment significantly. FBA won a 2013 state championship and have been a playoff team each of the past 7 seasons. The Saints in 2018 have scored at least 19 in every full game and at least 32 in every win that went 48 minutes. Both teams offenses should put up some numbers here and the depth in the smaller divisions can make matching up defensively quite the task. Look for a shootout, Saints win 42-35.
Hallettsville Sacred Heart Catholic School vs. Shiner St. Paul High School @ Columbus -- The Indians and Cardinals face off in the usual playoff rivalry. Sacred Heart claimed what looked like it would be the last Division IV state title in 2011 with a win over St. Paul, but St. Paul went ahead and won 2 titles in Division III in the mean time despite having an enrollment under 100 (smaller than some 6-man champions). The Cardinals are a favorite of this space due to their relatively low numbers and willingness to take on just about anyone anyway. This season though the Cardinals are just 4-8, and that is with 2 playoff wins. They are still very much a threat for the title though and are 4-1 against Division IV opponents. Of course the loss is to these Indians, by a score of 28-7 in Week 9. Among private school opponents the Indians 28 was a season low. Only Nixon-Smiley and Flatonia held Sacred Heart to fewer. In a rematch with short rosters I think you have to expect an offensive showdown. Cardinals get revenge, 36-32.
Season: 78-20
Quick Hits finishes the season at 102-28.
Division I
Dallas Parish Episcopal School vs. Dallas Bishop Dunne High School @ SMU -- When we haven't been pushing Prestonwood as the favorite in the top division we've had the Falcons as the favorite in Division I. Of course Bishop Lynch slid in and grabbed a state title one year when we were hyping Dunne and Prestonwood. The Falcons have won 6 in a row since losing a national TV game at St. Pius. Dunne avenged that loss last week with a 35-0 1st quarter to pace to a regional win. The "Red Swarm" defense has lived up to billing never allowing 20 points in any game this season, including holding these Panthers to 7 in their meeting on Oct. 12. The Parish offense will have to find a way around this dominant unit to reach the final. The Panthers have had an up and down season at times, dominating the likes of Fort Worth Christian and notching a win over Bishop Lynch, but then also dropping games to Liberty when the Warriors were not going well. The Panthers shouldn't get blown out by any means as they held the Falcons to 16 in their first meeting. However, I thought that about St. Pius X last week. If Parish can find a way to score in the high 20s the Falcons offense should have trouble matching that. I just don't see the Dunne defense getting picked apart in game 13 after their dominant season. Dunne wins a trench battle, 22-8.
Dallas Bishop Lynch High School vs. Argyle Liberty Christian School @ Irving -- The Warriors stunned us all by sending Prestonwood home in round 2. The Liberty defense posted an amazing season last year that led us to think they could be a surprise team in the playoffs. It turns out we were a year early. The Warriors started just 1-3 with the win being a rain shortened shutout, but over a notable opponent in Brock. Included in those 3 losses was a 49-20 drubbing at the hands of Prestonwood. The Warriors would reach 2-4 after Nolan put up another 49 on Warriors defense in the district opener. It just didn't seem to be Liberty's year. They've won 6 in a row since including last weeks revenge win over Prestonwood. The Friars figured to be a contender in Division I, but maybe in the 2nd group behind the trio of Dunne, Prestonwood, and St. Pius. Well, only Dunne remains of that group and the Friars are still standing. The Friars chances appeared to take a substantial hit when they lost the district opener to Parish and Dunne forced them to 0-2 in the district slate. Then despite digging an early hole Lynch responded with a 50-40 shocker of undefeated Prestonwood. On tiebreakers though the Friars still finished 4th, but the Friars won their most recent state title from a 5th place finish. If the Friars can score like they have in their big wins (Prestonwood, Nolan, MCS, St. Thomas) then they will be a tough out for the Warriors. If the Liberty defense can produce an outing like last week, they will be a similar mountain for the Friars. I think Lynch is the better team, but they've struggled in close games this year. Friars squeak past the Warriors 30-27.
Division II
Fort Worth Christian School vs. Cedar Hill Trinity Christian School @ Grand Prairie -- The Cardinals dominated Dallas Christian defensively last week, scoring first and never relinquishing that lead. DC managed just a 1st half field goal and a trick play touchdown in the 2nd half. While the Cardinals offense hasn't been a highlight unit all season, they feature one of the Division's best playmakers at QB. They've also run off 6 in a row since falling to Parish Episcopal in the non-district. While the defense has led them to key victories over Faith and DC. It almost got them in trouble seeing Brook Hill score 50 in the playoff opener. The Tigers have been the favorites for this year's title since probably Week 10 of last season and nothing in the current 12-0 campaign has changed that. A season opening win over DI semifinalist Bishop Lynch continues to look better each week. A blowout of St. Thomas looks more impressive after St. Thomas took their district title over St. Pius. The Brook Hill team that scored 50 at FWC, scored just 12 against TCCH. While FWC features one of the top playmakers, the Tigers feature 4 or 5 of the best playmakers in Division II. Could there be an upset? The Cardinals defense will have to lead the way and keep the Tigers out of the endzone. Maybe a short field or two could stem the tide. The Tigers are just too much on paper though. TCCH goes back to the final, 40-21.
Houston Second Baptist School vs. Regents School of Austin @ Brenham -- Regents and Second Baptist has been the expected South matchup for a couple of seasons. While the Knights and Eagles squared off in the regular season for two straight years, someone always got in the way of the playoff meeting. The Knights will look to return to the Division II Final for the 3rd consecutive season, having lost to Grapevine Faith and then being handled by TCCH last year. The regular season win streak fell for Regents in a surprise loss to San Antonio Central Catholic. They posted their usual two victories over a competitive Holy Cross squad and have held the opposition to 20 or less in all 10 of their wins. The Eagles bring their usual potent offense to the 3rd round having posted 93 points in 2 playoff victories. Last season the Knights held that attack to just 10 points and the playoff defeats have come when the Eagles offense has gone MIA. Just 9 points in last year's loss to Hyde Park, 10 in the 2016 loss to Holy Cross. 18 and 17 in the 2 playoff defeats before that. Second Baptist needs a big output to pass by Regents and take their shot at TCCH. The Knights I think are too much for the Eagles. Regents gets a 3rd shot, wins 30-17.
Division III
Willow Park Trinity Christian Academy vs. Flower Mound Coram Deo Academy @ Pennington Field -- These two met just three weeks ago with the Eagles taking a 20-14 road victory. Trinity has ascended the 11-man ranks very quickly, reaching the semifinals in all three seasons on the large field. McKinney Christian ousted the Eagles last year. The Lions struggled in 11-man until 2016 and now have secured at least 8 wins in three straight seasons. The 2018 Lions already have 11 wins and just the lone loss to these Eagles. Since that loss in Week 11 the Lions have rolled off 94 points in 2 playoff wins. Just 4 teams have held Coram Deo under 30 points. One is Shelton who the Lions posted 42 on the playoffs. Division II Frisco Legacy held the Lions to 14, and the Trinity's, Lubbock and Willow Park held the Lions down. The Eagles need to repeat that effort to reach the final. The Eagles offense is no slouch either, being only limited by Coram Deo among Division III opposition. I think in the rematch the offenses will show a little more prowess than in their first meeting. Look for a high scoring affair with Coram Deo claiming revenge, 41-35.
Geneva School of Boerne vs. League City Bay Area Christian @ Giddings -- The Eagles have been a force in whatever division they've been in, playing at least 12 games every season since 2012 outside of a transition season from 6-man to 11-man (they went undefeated against that outlaw schedule too). This year they've won 8 in a row after a 1-3 start, including 110 points in 2 playoff games. Only Shiner St. Paul held the Eagles under 40 during the win streak and that was just 38. The Broncos sport a matching 9-3 record after losing their first 3. Only Northland managed more than 14 against the Broncos among the 9 wins. Both teams limited TSD to just 2 touchdowns making me expect a defensive struggle in this one. Eagles finally reach a state final, winning 20-12.
Division IV
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian School vs. Dallas First Baptist Academy @ Pennington Field -- TAPPS smallest division brings us another Eagles. Lake Country struggled in the non-district slate going just 3-4, but have allowed only 34 points in their last 5 games including 4 DIV opponents. The Eagles have always tested themselves in the non-district leading to some less than stellar records, but multiple playoff appearances. The Saints have found their niche after school changes lowered their enrollment significantly. FBA won a 2013 state championship and have been a playoff team each of the past 7 seasons. The Saints in 2018 have scored at least 19 in every full game and at least 32 in every win that went 48 minutes. Both teams offenses should put up some numbers here and the depth in the smaller divisions can make matching up defensively quite the task. Look for a shootout, Saints win 42-35.
Hallettsville Sacred Heart Catholic School vs. Shiner St. Paul High School @ Columbus -- The Indians and Cardinals face off in the usual playoff rivalry. Sacred Heart claimed what looked like it would be the last Division IV state title in 2011 with a win over St. Paul, but St. Paul went ahead and won 2 titles in Division III in the mean time despite having an enrollment under 100 (smaller than some 6-man champions). The Cardinals are a favorite of this space due to their relatively low numbers and willingness to take on just about anyone anyway. This season though the Cardinals are just 4-8, and that is with 2 playoff wins. They are still very much a threat for the title though and are 4-1 against Division IV opponents. Of course the loss is to these Indians, by a score of 28-7 in Week 9. Among private school opponents the Indians 28 was a season low. Only Nixon-Smiley and Flatonia held Sacred Heart to fewer. In a rematch with short rosters I think you have to expect an offensive showdown. Cardinals get revenge, 36-32.
Season: 78-20
Quick Hits finishes the season at 102-28.
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Regional Playoff Picks 2018
One round closer to the finish line. Just 28 games left in 11-man for the year.
This Week: (Season: 72-19)
Dallas Christian vs. Fort Worth Christian @ Gopher-Warrior Bowl -- The Chargers and Cardinals are long time rivals dating back to before the creation of TAPPS. There have been a number of great battles through the years. FWC once led 20-0 before DC had an offensive snap before DC came back to win 28-20. The Cardinals bested the Chargers in the state title game 3 seasons ago in both schools most recent appearance in the final. The Chargers won last year's regional playoff game 45-35 in Burleson and the regular season meeting 19-14 (after leading 19-0). For this year's matchup, both teams may be lacking some key players from last year's shootout. The defense has led the way for Dallas Christian this season allowing more than 14 in just 2 of 11 games on their way to a 10-1 record. The Cardinals posted an 8-3 campaign including a loss at TK Gorman 54-42. In contrast the Chargers bested TKG 35-0 on a rainy night in Tyler. However, FWC dominated Frisco Legacy 41-13, while the Chargers struggled to get on track offensively in a 17-3 playoff win. The battle appears to be between the Cardinals offense and the Chargers defense. FWC has scored 38 or more in each game of its current five game win streak. In contrast, DC has scored 38+ just 3 times all year. The Cardinals playoff win over Brook Hill may provide the best example. FWC posted 56 while DC managed just 21 against the same squad. Brook Hill scored 50 at FWC but just 7 at DC. If the game gets in the 30s DC will have a very difficult time. Chargers win the slugfest, 26-21.
Grapevine Faith Christian vs. Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Farrington Field -- The Lions looked to be the best challenger to the Tigers throne through 9 games. Then FWC bested them and the Lions needed a missed FG to squeak out a 2 point win against TK Gorman. Now its hard to see the Tigers as anything other than overwhelming favorites to repeat. TCCH was held under 44 points just 3 times this season, by DC, Melissa, and Bishop Lynch. The Faith defense is no pushover, but allowing 33 to TKG who managed just 6 combined against DC and TCCH is not an encouraging sign. The Lions best win was a neutral site win over Canadian, along with a stretch of 3 district wins over various Eagles by a combined margin of 162-10. Recapturing that offensive form will be needed to out gun the Tigers. There can certainly be playoff upsets in high school football, but I don't see it here. Tigers march continues, 48-20.
Houston Second Baptist vs. Houston Cypress Christian @ Delmar Stadium -- The Warriors are the other state champion in the Division II bracket and the only road team to spring an upset last week. The Eagles are the long time favorite in the Houston area in the TAPPS 2nd largest division. Second Baptist is also the last school south of the I-20 corridor to win the Division II (then 4A) state title way back in 1999, for perspective now closed Carrollton American Heritage won the 2A title that year. The Eagles have posted a 10-1 record on the season, losing only at Van Vleck (Leopards by the way) who is still in the UIL playoffs. The Warriors struggled some in the move up to Division II, but after getting blasted by Regents in Week 1 posted 8 wins including some tight battles, 4 point win at Hyde Park, 3 point win over Westbury, and a 4 point win at Victoria St. Joseph. When these two met in Week 9, the Eagles dominated in a 38-10 victory. That game was at Second Baptist and it always feels like beating the same team again can be a challenge. Cypress will be a force for Second Baptist to deal with in the years to come, but will not have enough this week. Second Baptist wins, 38-17.
San Antonio Holy Cross vs. Austin Regents @ Buda -- The battle of Knights reasserts itself for the 2nd time this season, marking the 3rd straight season Holy Cross and Regents will square off in both the regular season and the playoffs. Regents has won 6 in a row in this series, including a 34-7 win this year. You have to go back to 2014 to find a Holy Cross win. The Regents offense has really gotten loose on the Holy Cross Knights scoring 41, 34, and 32 in the last three meetings. The Regents Knights continue to be a hard out for anyone south of the I-20 corridor (and they were playing 6-man when Second Baptist won that 1999 title). Second Baptist is probably the best chance to break the Regents hold on the southern half of Division II, but Holy Cross will get past the Regents juggernaut at some point, but hasn't delivered on the promise that the Central Catholic win seemed to hold. Regents continues it march back to the title game, 30-12.
Fort Worth Nolan vs. Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Gopher-Warrior Bowl -- The Vikings have quietly amassed a 9-1 record and have to be considered a contender in the next tier of Division I. That top tier was probably just Prestonwood and Dunne, but Lynch forced their way in with their win over Prestonwood. The Panthers also have to be considered in that next group having beaten Lynch. In earlier results the Vikings ran over Liberty while the Panthers fell to the Warriors just 2 weeks ago. Nolan has not had the excitement statewide that many 9-1 teams would get, probably a product of not winning more than 5 games for the last 4 seasons. The blowout loss to Lynch was another blow to the Vikings ratings. The Dunne-Pius winner will not get a pushover either way, but I'll take the Panthers in a close one, 30-28.
Houston St. Pius X vs. Bishop Dunne @ Manor -- Probably the main event in the Division I bracket this week is the rematch of Panthers and Falcons. When these two last met, St. Pius took a 17-7 victory in Houston in front of a national audience. These two meet up in the playoffs for the 4th straight season, with the Panthers winning last year after the Falcons took the first two. The Falcons "Red Swarm" defense has been a top unit all season allowing no more than 19 in any game this season. The Dunne defense has done this against top competition, including Desoto, Prestonwood, and St. Pius. Now given that defense the record does include 3 losses. The offense has not always kept pace, getting past 23 on the scoreboard just 4 times in 11 games. The Panthers offense is the dominant unit, having been held under 40 just twice on the season. Somewhat curiously they won both of those games including the previously mentioned game against Dunne. St. Thomas and Prestonwood tripped up the Panthers this year with the former defeat bringing this matchup forward to the Regional round. If this game gets up in the 40s then Dunne will struggle to keep up, but St. Pius bested Dunne in a defensive slugfest last time out so I don't think it goes in reverse. Dunne gets enough points to get over the top this time. Falcons win 23-19.
Austin Texas School for the Deaf vs. League City Bay Area Christian @ Sealy -- Reaching into the smaller divisions, the Broncos enter this 2nd round contest with an 8 game winning streak after they lost their first 3. Bay Area positioned themselves as a Division III contender by squeaking out a 14-6 district opening win over The Woodlands Christian and then dominating the rest of the district slate winning each game by 27 or more. The Broncos posted a 48-7 thrashing of Schertz JPII to open the postseason. The Rangers 8 wins is already their most since 2007 and have responded with four big wins since falling to Boerne Geneva. The TSD offense has been a high powered unit posting 59, 59, and 62 in their last three including a 38 point victory over Northland in round 1. These two offenses should produce quite the shootout. Broncos sneak by 48-40.
Quick Hits: (Season: 94-27)
Dallas Bishop Lynch over Houston St. Thomas
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Argyle Liberty Christian
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Arlington Pantego Christian
Flower Mound Coram Deo Academy over Arlington Grace Preparatory Academy
Boerne Geneva over The Woodlands Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Dallas Covenant
Dallas First Baptist Academy over Muenster Sacred Heart
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Tomball Rosehill Christian School
Shiner St. Paul over Beaumont Legacy Christian
This Week: (Season: 72-19)
Dallas Christian vs. Fort Worth Christian @ Gopher-Warrior Bowl -- The Chargers and Cardinals are long time rivals dating back to before the creation of TAPPS. There have been a number of great battles through the years. FWC once led 20-0 before DC had an offensive snap before DC came back to win 28-20. The Cardinals bested the Chargers in the state title game 3 seasons ago in both schools most recent appearance in the final. The Chargers won last year's regional playoff game 45-35 in Burleson and the regular season meeting 19-14 (after leading 19-0). For this year's matchup, both teams may be lacking some key players from last year's shootout. The defense has led the way for Dallas Christian this season allowing more than 14 in just 2 of 11 games on their way to a 10-1 record. The Cardinals posted an 8-3 campaign including a loss at TK Gorman 54-42. In contrast the Chargers bested TKG 35-0 on a rainy night in Tyler. However, FWC dominated Frisco Legacy 41-13, while the Chargers struggled to get on track offensively in a 17-3 playoff win. The battle appears to be between the Cardinals offense and the Chargers defense. FWC has scored 38 or more in each game of its current five game win streak. In contrast, DC has scored 38+ just 3 times all year. The Cardinals playoff win over Brook Hill may provide the best example. FWC posted 56 while DC managed just 21 against the same squad. Brook Hill scored 50 at FWC but just 7 at DC. If the game gets in the 30s DC will have a very difficult time. Chargers win the slugfest, 26-21.
Grapevine Faith Christian vs. Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Farrington Field -- The Lions looked to be the best challenger to the Tigers throne through 9 games. Then FWC bested them and the Lions needed a missed FG to squeak out a 2 point win against TK Gorman. Now its hard to see the Tigers as anything other than overwhelming favorites to repeat. TCCH was held under 44 points just 3 times this season, by DC, Melissa, and Bishop Lynch. The Faith defense is no pushover, but allowing 33 to TKG who managed just 6 combined against DC and TCCH is not an encouraging sign. The Lions best win was a neutral site win over Canadian, along with a stretch of 3 district wins over various Eagles by a combined margin of 162-10. Recapturing that offensive form will be needed to out gun the Tigers. There can certainly be playoff upsets in high school football, but I don't see it here. Tigers march continues, 48-20.
Houston Second Baptist vs. Houston Cypress Christian @ Delmar Stadium -- The Warriors are the other state champion in the Division II bracket and the only road team to spring an upset last week. The Eagles are the long time favorite in the Houston area in the TAPPS 2nd largest division. Second Baptist is also the last school south of the I-20 corridor to win the Division II (then 4A) state title way back in 1999, for perspective now closed Carrollton American Heritage won the 2A title that year. The Eagles have posted a 10-1 record on the season, losing only at Van Vleck (Leopards by the way) who is still in the UIL playoffs. The Warriors struggled some in the move up to Division II, but after getting blasted by Regents in Week 1 posted 8 wins including some tight battles, 4 point win at Hyde Park, 3 point win over Westbury, and a 4 point win at Victoria St. Joseph. When these two met in Week 9, the Eagles dominated in a 38-10 victory. That game was at Second Baptist and it always feels like beating the same team again can be a challenge. Cypress will be a force for Second Baptist to deal with in the years to come, but will not have enough this week. Second Baptist wins, 38-17.
San Antonio Holy Cross vs. Austin Regents @ Buda -- The battle of Knights reasserts itself for the 2nd time this season, marking the 3rd straight season Holy Cross and Regents will square off in both the regular season and the playoffs. Regents has won 6 in a row in this series, including a 34-7 win this year. You have to go back to 2014 to find a Holy Cross win. The Regents offense has really gotten loose on the Holy Cross Knights scoring 41, 34, and 32 in the last three meetings. The Regents Knights continue to be a hard out for anyone south of the I-20 corridor (and they were playing 6-man when Second Baptist won that 1999 title). Second Baptist is probably the best chance to break the Regents hold on the southern half of Division II, but Holy Cross will get past the Regents juggernaut at some point, but hasn't delivered on the promise that the Central Catholic win seemed to hold. Regents continues it march back to the title game, 30-12.
Fort Worth Nolan vs. Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Gopher-Warrior Bowl -- The Vikings have quietly amassed a 9-1 record and have to be considered a contender in the next tier of Division I. That top tier was probably just Prestonwood and Dunne, but Lynch forced their way in with their win over Prestonwood. The Panthers also have to be considered in that next group having beaten Lynch. In earlier results the Vikings ran over Liberty while the Panthers fell to the Warriors just 2 weeks ago. Nolan has not had the excitement statewide that many 9-1 teams would get, probably a product of not winning more than 5 games for the last 4 seasons. The blowout loss to Lynch was another blow to the Vikings ratings. The Dunne-Pius winner will not get a pushover either way, but I'll take the Panthers in a close one, 30-28.
Houston St. Pius X vs. Bishop Dunne @ Manor -- Probably the main event in the Division I bracket this week is the rematch of Panthers and Falcons. When these two last met, St. Pius took a 17-7 victory in Houston in front of a national audience. These two meet up in the playoffs for the 4th straight season, with the Panthers winning last year after the Falcons took the first two. The Falcons "Red Swarm" defense has been a top unit all season allowing no more than 19 in any game this season. The Dunne defense has done this against top competition, including Desoto, Prestonwood, and St. Pius. Now given that defense the record does include 3 losses. The offense has not always kept pace, getting past 23 on the scoreboard just 4 times in 11 games. The Panthers offense is the dominant unit, having been held under 40 just twice on the season. Somewhat curiously they won both of those games including the previously mentioned game against Dunne. St. Thomas and Prestonwood tripped up the Panthers this year with the former defeat bringing this matchup forward to the Regional round. If this game gets up in the 40s then Dunne will struggle to keep up, but St. Pius bested Dunne in a defensive slugfest last time out so I don't think it goes in reverse. Dunne gets enough points to get over the top this time. Falcons win 23-19.
Austin Texas School for the Deaf vs. League City Bay Area Christian @ Sealy -- Reaching into the smaller divisions, the Broncos enter this 2nd round contest with an 8 game winning streak after they lost their first 3. Bay Area positioned themselves as a Division III contender by squeaking out a 14-6 district opening win over The Woodlands Christian and then dominating the rest of the district slate winning each game by 27 or more. The Broncos posted a 48-7 thrashing of Schertz JPII to open the postseason. The Rangers 8 wins is already their most since 2007 and have responded with four big wins since falling to Boerne Geneva. The TSD offense has been a high powered unit posting 59, 59, and 62 in their last three including a 38 point victory over Northland in round 1. These two offenses should produce quite the shootout. Broncos sneak by 48-40.
Quick Hits: (Season: 94-27)
Dallas Bishop Lynch over Houston St. Thomas
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Argyle Liberty Christian
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Arlington Pantego Christian
Flower Mound Coram Deo Academy over Arlington Grace Preparatory Academy
Boerne Geneva over The Woodlands Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Dallas Covenant
Dallas First Baptist Academy over Muenster Sacred Heart
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Tomball Rosehill Christian School
Shiner St. Paul over Beaumont Legacy Christian
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Area Playoff Picks 2018
We have reached the postseason again. Cold has descended across the state, football weather is here for sure. Who will go on the road on surprise a host this week? We'll find out very soon.
This Week: (Season: 64-17)
Division II is where my allegiances lie, so they get the preferential treatment. Michaeljw has an excellent rundown for the Division I playoffs in another thread.
Division II Playoff Preview:
Frisco Legacy Christain @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers return to the playoffs as the runner up from District 2, having lost only to defending champion TCCH this season. DC will take on an Eagles in the 1st round for the 4th time in 5 years and host a 1st round game for the 8th consecutive season and the 12th time in the last 13 years. The Eagles are a familiar foe for the Chargers having shared District 2 in 2014 and 2015, but also having been district mates in the non-football sports for the last 4 seasons. The Eagles lost both football match-ups with DC in their brief time together, but had the Chargers on the ropes in a 2014 game in Frisco. The 5-4 Eagles will have to be much better than they have been to secure a regional spot. If POP and Shelton are able to reach the 20s on your defense its hard to see holding DC down in the teens. The Eagles likely need that type of defensive against the Chargers who only allowed more than 20 to TCCH. The DC offense has been up and down at times this year, and the turnover bug could be what keeps the Eagles in it. Chargers win at home, 38-15.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals were pushed down the list of contenders after starting just 3-3 including losses to TKG, MCS, and Parish. Less than inspiring wins over Southwest Christian and Country Day while Faith was bulldozing similar squads and scoring victories over UIL powers Canadian made FWC the underdog for the District 1 title. As always though, "That's why they play the games." A 38-27 win in the de facto district title game gets the Cardinals out of the TCCH quarter of the bracket. The Cardinals offense should give them a strong chance in the playoffs, having been held under 20 by only Parish Episcopal. The Guard saw 4 losses in the campaign this year, but scored the home win over Grace that ultimately put them in the playoffs at 6-4. The Guard played one of the better games against DC, holding the Chargers to just 21 but managed just 7 of their own. They will need 30 points or more to be in the this one on the road. Brook Hill's win at Southwest Christian actually looks a little better than FWC's. However, 20 points allowed to McKinney Christian makes slowing the Cardinals look pretty arduous for the Guard. Brook Hill will battle in this one, but won't have enough to steal a road win. Cardinals win 38-28.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Lions appeared to be marching to a showdown of undefeateds in the semifinals with TCCH. Then last week's district title game blemished the Faith record finishing just 8-1. The huge offensive performance in a neutral site game against Canadian really announced the Lions as a contender in 2018, but the loss to close the regular season makes for a interesting game in round 1. The Crusaders will like their chances to score an upset, having posted a win over FWC back in September and seeing FWC best the Lions last week. The Crusaders though have struggled in the late season for the last couple seasons. Dropping 3 in a row in district play this year and starting 6-0 last year before finishing 6-4. TKG has also dropped its last three playoff games allowing 83 (but scoring 68), 64, and 56 (to FWC last year). The Crusaders defense has betrayed them in the biggest moments and will need to rise to the occasion to score a road upset. TKG has held just 3 opponents under 28 points in 10 games this year while while Faith has posted 28 or more in 7 of 9 outings (and 27 in one other). The Lions offense overwhelms the Crusaders. Faith wins 44-30.
Austin Brentwood Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers are the defending state champions and have won 19 in a row and 22 of 23 dating back to last year. TCCH has scored 40+ in 7 of 10 this season and in the other 3 posted 37, 26, and 23, against DC, Melissa, and Lynch respectively. The Tigers are going to be heavy favorites this postseason, and sometimes the weight of expectations is the heaviest. The Bears have posted a banner campaign in their first season in Division II and just 4th football season. After reaching the regional round last year, falling to eventual champion Cypress, the Bears started 7-0 before dropping back to back games to Regents and Hyde Park. Those early wins though brought the Bears enough points to beat out District 4-3rd for the last playoff spot. Brentwood is likely in for more than they can take with a road game in Cedar Hill but look to be building a competitive program that will challenge in the years to come, not enough this week though. Tigers win 45-8.
Brownsville St. Joseph @ Houston Second Baptist -- The southern half of the bracket starts with perennial contender Second Baptist. The Eagles at 9-1 have posted their 12th consecutive winning season and are riding high after besting Lutheran South in OT to claim the district title. The Eagle offense has been a little slower than previous seasons, scoring 40 in just 2 of 10 games. When your offense wanes a bit and you still win 9 games that means your defense is a strong unit with the Eagles allowing 20 or more in just 3 games. The Bloodhounds have had a difficult season, posting a 2-7 record. The Bloodhounds scored the victory agasinst San Antonio Christian that put them in the playoffs and geography makes judging them against the rest of the Division pretty challenging. St. Joseph was only beaten 19-0 by district champion Holy Cross and so despite the record I doubt will be blownout. The trip to Houston will be too much, but no pushover the Eagles. As much as I want to move an Eagles out of the playoffs for a Bloodhounds, Second Baptist wins 29-7.
Houston Cypress Christian @ Austin Hyde Park -- The Panthers host last year's Division III champion at The Quarries to open the playoffs. Hyde Park posted a 6-3 record on the season, but just narrow victories against St. Michael's and Brentwood. The latter victory gets the Panthers out of a trip to Cedar Hill and keeps them home to open the playoffs. The best win for the Panthers is probably the season opener at Holy Cross, and the Panthers have won every game they've held the opposition under 30. The Warriors have experienced a very similar season to the Panthers posting a 7-3 record, winning in Victoria the last week to move to 3rd place. Regents punished both teams with the Panthers taking a 44-12 loss and the Warriors a 48-7 loss. This should be one of the most competitive games of the weekend, but its difficult to see them beating the winner of the above game in round 2. When in doubt go with the home team. Hyde Park wins 28-27.
Houston Lutheran South @ San Antonio Holy Cross -- The Knights might look ahead to the annual playoff matchup with Regents but find a staunch test in Lutheran South. The Pioneers lost last week's district title game to Second Baptist in OT, but finished the regular season 8-2. The Pioneers have been to OT 3 times this season, winning twice. Preparing these previews shows me what a hard luck season Westbury had, dropping 4 district games by 3, 3, 6 in OT, and 13. The Knights lost their opener to Hyde Park and then scored an upset win in the famed Holy Bowl against Central Catholic. They didn't really consolidate that win losing to Boerne the next week and falling 34-7 in the annual match with Regents. If Cypress-Hyde Park is the most competitive game, then this one is the most competitive with best chance at reaching the title game. 3 of the best 4 teams in the southern half of the division are in this quarter and the winner will probably be favored against Second Baptist in the semis. We are getting ahead of ourselves though, The Knights defense has 2 straight shutouts coming into this one and the Pioneers do not have the high flying group of 3 seasons ago. This should be a defensive battle. I'll take the game under a total of 40 points (don't bet on high school football please). Also, I need a road upset somewhere. Pioneers squeak by the Knights, 21-18.
Victoria St. Joseph @ Austin Regents -- The other Knights at Regents have reached the last 2 state title games, falling in 2OT to Faith and then being beaten handily by TCCH last season. The regular season win streak was broken this year, sending the Knights to postseason at just 8-1. The defense has led the way for Regents allowing more than 20 in just one game, the loss to San Antonio Central. The Flyers have been in a bad way in recent years, posting just 7 wins in the last 3 years before responding with a 6-4 campaign this season. VSJ has come up a bit small in the big games this year though, being shutout by LSA, and scoring just 9 in a 31 point defeat against Second Baptist. Geography makes it hard to judge the non-district wins, but the Flyers are definitely better than they've been in recent seasons. The Knights are going to be too much though and will reach round 2 for the 4th straight year. Knights win 30-7.
I used to pick the rest of the bracket, but we all know who I'm picking to win it all so that seems silly. So that finishes the D2 playoff preview. So I bring you the 5th annual rundown of the playoff teams. Some realignment brought us a couple nice mascots to include, but the vinyl "Beat the Eagles" still gets plenty of run though not as much in the playoffs. Only 2 duplicate mascots this year. Good luck on the road to state to everyone. We first find a few staples, 2 Eagles, 2 Knights, and the Panthers. Further, the Cardinals, the Crusaders, the Lions, and the Pioneers will certainly be threats for the top. The bracket finds 2 champions, the Tigers and the Warriors. Realignment has brought us the Bears and the Bloodhounds. Then, returning to playoffs after an absence is the Guard and the the Flyers. And as always, best of luck to the Chargers!
Additional Area Round Picks:
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Midland Christian -- The Friars scored the huge upset victory against Prestonwood 2 weeks ago, but had already put themselves behind the 8-ball losing to Parish and Dunne to start district play and so still wind up traveling to the Permian Basin to start the postseason. The Mustangs jumped to a 7-0 start but won four of those seven by single digits. The stalwart Mustang defense then saw Liberty post 41 points at Awtry Field. That lax form will probably not see MCS to a playoff win. The Friars 50 point outing against Prestonwood would serve them well in this road test. The team that managed just 20 and 13 in district losses might struggle to get past the battle tested Mustangs. The long trip is certainly a test, but I think the Friars showed what they're capable of in the Prestonwood win. They turned a 5th place finish into a state championship just 2 seasons ago. After last year's undefeated campaign ended in a semifinal loss maybe the Friars need a little adversity for playoff success. Friars pull out a close one, 41-36.
Lubbock Christian @ Arlington Pantego Christian -- The Panthers secured a host position coming off their best season since 2014, winning 6 games for the first time since then. They can exceed 6 wins for the first time since 2009 with a home victory. The Eagles are a perennial contender in Division III, but several contenders have slid past them this year. Notably, Coram Deo posted a 2OT victory back in Week 7 and nearly finished undefeated. Coram Deo was bested by Willow Park Trinity, who also topped the Eagles in district play. Those losses send Lubbock Christian east to start the playoffs. Perhaps moving home games back to campus has led the resurgence for the Panthers who scored a bunch of points against many Division III opponents. In Pantego's 6 wins they scored 42 or more in 5 of them. They were held to 7, 14, and 28 in their 3 losses. The Eagles held opponents under 20 in 5 of their 6 wins and allowed 55, 56, 35, and 35 in their 4 losses. If the Panthers reach 28 they win, otherwise I think the Eagles will prevail. Pantego gets it done at home, 36-20.
BYE @ Fort Worth Nolan -- Bye remains unscored on this season, posing approximately 1000 shutouts this season. However, the offense has struggled. Vikings sneak by with a 1-0 forfeit.
Quick Hits: (Season: 83-27)
Dallas Parish Episcopal over San Antonio Antonian
Houston St. Pius X over Fort Worth All Saints
Dallas Bishop Dunne over Trinity Christian - Addison
Houston St. Thomas over Plano John Paul II
Argyle Liberty Christian over San Antonio Central Catholic
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Dallas Shelton
Austin Texas School for the Deaf over Houston Northland Christian
Dallas Covenant School over Sherman Texoma Christian
Shiner St. Paul over The Woodlands Legacy Prep
This Week: (Season: 64-17)
Division II is where my allegiances lie, so they get the preferential treatment. Michaeljw has an excellent rundown for the Division I playoffs in another thread.
Division II Playoff Preview:
Frisco Legacy Christain @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers return to the playoffs as the runner up from District 2, having lost only to defending champion TCCH this season. DC will take on an Eagles in the 1st round for the 4th time in 5 years and host a 1st round game for the 8th consecutive season and the 12th time in the last 13 years. The Eagles are a familiar foe for the Chargers having shared District 2 in 2014 and 2015, but also having been district mates in the non-football sports for the last 4 seasons. The Eagles lost both football match-ups with DC in their brief time together, but had the Chargers on the ropes in a 2014 game in Frisco. The 5-4 Eagles will have to be much better than they have been to secure a regional spot. If POP and Shelton are able to reach the 20s on your defense its hard to see holding DC down in the teens. The Eagles likely need that type of defensive against the Chargers who only allowed more than 20 to TCCH. The DC offense has been up and down at times this year, and the turnover bug could be what keeps the Eagles in it. Chargers win at home, 38-15.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals were pushed down the list of contenders after starting just 3-3 including losses to TKG, MCS, and Parish. Less than inspiring wins over Southwest Christian and Country Day while Faith was bulldozing similar squads and scoring victories over UIL powers Canadian made FWC the underdog for the District 1 title. As always though, "That's why they play the games." A 38-27 win in the de facto district title game gets the Cardinals out of the TCCH quarter of the bracket. The Cardinals offense should give them a strong chance in the playoffs, having been held under 20 by only Parish Episcopal. The Guard saw 4 losses in the campaign this year, but scored the home win over Grace that ultimately put them in the playoffs at 6-4. The Guard played one of the better games against DC, holding the Chargers to just 21 but managed just 7 of their own. They will need 30 points or more to be in the this one on the road. Brook Hill's win at Southwest Christian actually looks a little better than FWC's. However, 20 points allowed to McKinney Christian makes slowing the Cardinals look pretty arduous for the Guard. Brook Hill will battle in this one, but won't have enough to steal a road win. Cardinals win 38-28.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Lions appeared to be marching to a showdown of undefeateds in the semifinals with TCCH. Then last week's district title game blemished the Faith record finishing just 8-1. The huge offensive performance in a neutral site game against Canadian really announced the Lions as a contender in 2018, but the loss to close the regular season makes for a interesting game in round 1. The Crusaders will like their chances to score an upset, having posted a win over FWC back in September and seeing FWC best the Lions last week. The Crusaders though have struggled in the late season for the last couple seasons. Dropping 3 in a row in district play this year and starting 6-0 last year before finishing 6-4. TKG has also dropped its last three playoff games allowing 83 (but scoring 68), 64, and 56 (to FWC last year). The Crusaders defense has betrayed them in the biggest moments and will need to rise to the occasion to score a road upset. TKG has held just 3 opponents under 28 points in 10 games this year while while Faith has posted 28 or more in 7 of 9 outings (and 27 in one other). The Lions offense overwhelms the Crusaders. Faith wins 44-30.
Austin Brentwood Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers are the defending state champions and have won 19 in a row and 22 of 23 dating back to last year. TCCH has scored 40+ in 7 of 10 this season and in the other 3 posted 37, 26, and 23, against DC, Melissa, and Lynch respectively. The Tigers are going to be heavy favorites this postseason, and sometimes the weight of expectations is the heaviest. The Bears have posted a banner campaign in their first season in Division II and just 4th football season. After reaching the regional round last year, falling to eventual champion Cypress, the Bears started 7-0 before dropping back to back games to Regents and Hyde Park. Those early wins though brought the Bears enough points to beat out District 4-3rd for the last playoff spot. Brentwood is likely in for more than they can take with a road game in Cedar Hill but look to be building a competitive program that will challenge in the years to come, not enough this week though. Tigers win 45-8.
Brownsville St. Joseph @ Houston Second Baptist -- The southern half of the bracket starts with perennial contender Second Baptist. The Eagles at 9-1 have posted their 12th consecutive winning season and are riding high after besting Lutheran South in OT to claim the district title. The Eagle offense has been a little slower than previous seasons, scoring 40 in just 2 of 10 games. When your offense wanes a bit and you still win 9 games that means your defense is a strong unit with the Eagles allowing 20 or more in just 3 games. The Bloodhounds have had a difficult season, posting a 2-7 record. The Bloodhounds scored the victory agasinst San Antonio Christian that put them in the playoffs and geography makes judging them against the rest of the Division pretty challenging. St. Joseph was only beaten 19-0 by district champion Holy Cross and so despite the record I doubt will be blownout. The trip to Houston will be too much, but no pushover the Eagles. As much as I want to move an Eagles out of the playoffs for a Bloodhounds, Second Baptist wins 29-7.
Houston Cypress Christian @ Austin Hyde Park -- The Panthers host last year's Division III champion at The Quarries to open the playoffs. Hyde Park posted a 6-3 record on the season, but just narrow victories against St. Michael's and Brentwood. The latter victory gets the Panthers out of a trip to Cedar Hill and keeps them home to open the playoffs. The best win for the Panthers is probably the season opener at Holy Cross, and the Panthers have won every game they've held the opposition under 30. The Warriors have experienced a very similar season to the Panthers posting a 7-3 record, winning in Victoria the last week to move to 3rd place. Regents punished both teams with the Panthers taking a 44-12 loss and the Warriors a 48-7 loss. This should be one of the most competitive games of the weekend, but its difficult to see them beating the winner of the above game in round 2. When in doubt go with the home team. Hyde Park wins 28-27.
Houston Lutheran South @ San Antonio Holy Cross -- The Knights might look ahead to the annual playoff matchup with Regents but find a staunch test in Lutheran South. The Pioneers lost last week's district title game to Second Baptist in OT, but finished the regular season 8-2. The Pioneers have been to OT 3 times this season, winning twice. Preparing these previews shows me what a hard luck season Westbury had, dropping 4 district games by 3, 3, 6 in OT, and 13. The Knights lost their opener to Hyde Park and then scored an upset win in the famed Holy Bowl against Central Catholic. They didn't really consolidate that win losing to Boerne the next week and falling 34-7 in the annual match with Regents. If Cypress-Hyde Park is the most competitive game, then this one is the most competitive with best chance at reaching the title game. 3 of the best 4 teams in the southern half of the division are in this quarter and the winner will probably be favored against Second Baptist in the semis. We are getting ahead of ourselves though, The Knights defense has 2 straight shutouts coming into this one and the Pioneers do not have the high flying group of 3 seasons ago. This should be a defensive battle. I'll take the game under a total of 40 points (don't bet on high school football please). Also, I need a road upset somewhere. Pioneers squeak by the Knights, 21-18.
Victoria St. Joseph @ Austin Regents -- The other Knights at Regents have reached the last 2 state title games, falling in 2OT to Faith and then being beaten handily by TCCH last season. The regular season win streak was broken this year, sending the Knights to postseason at just 8-1. The defense has led the way for Regents allowing more than 20 in just one game, the loss to San Antonio Central. The Flyers have been in a bad way in recent years, posting just 7 wins in the last 3 years before responding with a 6-4 campaign this season. VSJ has come up a bit small in the big games this year though, being shutout by LSA, and scoring just 9 in a 31 point defeat against Second Baptist. Geography makes it hard to judge the non-district wins, but the Flyers are definitely better than they've been in recent seasons. The Knights are going to be too much though and will reach round 2 for the 4th straight year. Knights win 30-7.
I used to pick the rest of the bracket, but we all know who I'm picking to win it all so that seems silly. So that finishes the D2 playoff preview. So I bring you the 5th annual rundown of the playoff teams. Some realignment brought us a couple nice mascots to include, but the vinyl "Beat the Eagles" still gets plenty of run though not as much in the playoffs. Only 2 duplicate mascots this year. Good luck on the road to state to everyone. We first find a few staples, 2 Eagles, 2 Knights, and the Panthers. Further, the Cardinals, the Crusaders, the Lions, and the Pioneers will certainly be threats for the top. The bracket finds 2 champions, the Tigers and the Warriors. Realignment has brought us the Bears and the Bloodhounds. Then, returning to playoffs after an absence is the Guard and the the Flyers. And as always, best of luck to the Chargers!
Additional Area Round Picks:
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Midland Christian -- The Friars scored the huge upset victory against Prestonwood 2 weeks ago, but had already put themselves behind the 8-ball losing to Parish and Dunne to start district play and so still wind up traveling to the Permian Basin to start the postseason. The Mustangs jumped to a 7-0 start but won four of those seven by single digits. The stalwart Mustang defense then saw Liberty post 41 points at Awtry Field. That lax form will probably not see MCS to a playoff win. The Friars 50 point outing against Prestonwood would serve them well in this road test. The team that managed just 20 and 13 in district losses might struggle to get past the battle tested Mustangs. The long trip is certainly a test, but I think the Friars showed what they're capable of in the Prestonwood win. They turned a 5th place finish into a state championship just 2 seasons ago. After last year's undefeated campaign ended in a semifinal loss maybe the Friars need a little adversity for playoff success. Friars pull out a close one, 41-36.
Lubbock Christian @ Arlington Pantego Christian -- The Panthers secured a host position coming off their best season since 2014, winning 6 games for the first time since then. They can exceed 6 wins for the first time since 2009 with a home victory. The Eagles are a perennial contender in Division III, but several contenders have slid past them this year. Notably, Coram Deo posted a 2OT victory back in Week 7 and nearly finished undefeated. Coram Deo was bested by Willow Park Trinity, who also topped the Eagles in district play. Those losses send Lubbock Christian east to start the playoffs. Perhaps moving home games back to campus has led the resurgence for the Panthers who scored a bunch of points against many Division III opponents. In Pantego's 6 wins they scored 42 or more in 5 of them. They were held to 7, 14, and 28 in their 3 losses. The Eagles held opponents under 20 in 5 of their 6 wins and allowed 55, 56, 35, and 35 in their 4 losses. If the Panthers reach 28 they win, otherwise I think the Eagles will prevail. Pantego gets it done at home, 36-20.
BYE @ Fort Worth Nolan -- Bye remains unscored on this season, posing approximately 1000 shutouts this season. However, the offense has struggled. Vikings sneak by with a 1-0 forfeit.
Quick Hits: (Season: 83-27)
Dallas Parish Episcopal over San Antonio Antonian
Houston St. Pius X over Fort Worth All Saints
Dallas Bishop Dunne over Trinity Christian - Addison
Houston St. Thomas over Plano John Paul II
Argyle Liberty Christian over San Antonio Central Catholic
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Dallas Shelton
Austin Texas School for the Deaf over Houston Northland Christian
Dallas Covenant School over Sherman Texoma Christian
Shiner St. Paul over The Woodlands Legacy Prep
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Week 11 Picks 2018
We have reached the end of a long season, but as always it comes too soon. When I played, I always found going out to warm-up when it was already dark for the first game after the time change a different tone setter for that week. 2018 will always be one of the wettest season in memory, lets make it a memorable finish.
This Week: (Season: 60-14)
Dallas Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Chargers head east for the 2nd time in district play, and actually head to the same field they visited the first time. Perhaps it will be a drier visit to the Rose City. The DC defense has led the charge allowing only 7 points combined in their three district wins. The offense has been up and down, last week's 56 points was an up. Scoring just 21 at home against Brook Hill or 16 against TCCH were downs. The Cougars have had a curious campaign that sees them at just 5-4, but a win would likely get them into 2nd place in the district standings. In Grace's nine games, both teams have scored at least 28 in seven of them. One game saw the Cougars post a 21 point victory yet still allow 54, then the same team that scored 54 managed just 8 against TKG. The Cougars of course then beat TKG to position themselves to reach 2nd place possibly. The Cougars offense will probably keep them in this to the late stages, but they will have to find the big stops to win. While they've shown they can get those I think the Chargers run their series win streak to 7 in a row. DC wins 35-24.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard will welcome the defending state champs to Herrington Stadium with their own chance to climb into a tie for 2nd. They could also land in a 3-way tie for 3rd where one team will be out of the playoffs. In a game you need to win, seeing the 9-0 Tigers across the way is certainly not ideal. In four district games the closest an opponent has been at the end is 21 points and the Guard lost to both DC and TKG who TCCH controlled in their respective meetings. TCCH has only been held under 40 by DC, Melissa, and Bishop Lynch. The Guard may still reach the postseason out of the tie for 3rd, but I can't see where they get enough points to reach the playoffs by any other path. If you only scored 19 against TKG how are you going to post 40 against the Tigers. Tigers reach 10-0 with a 42-14 win.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ McKinney Christian -- The Crusaders have to win this road tilt to have a chance at the playoffs. A win and losses by Grace and Brook Hill would leave the Cru in a 3-way tie for 3rd and their dominant win over Brook Hill would likely be favorable. A win and a loss by only Brook Hill would definitely put the Cru in the playoffs. The Crusaders are just 5-4 after starting a promising 4-1 including a win over Fort Worth Christian. District play was not kind to TKG scoring just 6 points combined against stalwarts DC and TCCH and dropping a 2 point decision at Tyler Grace. The Mustangs have struggled in their first season in Division II, coming in with just a 2-6 record following a 56-0 shutout against DC. They did have a promising showing against Brook Hill posting 20 on the scoreboard. The Mustangs will have to find a new offensive gear to keep pace with the Crusaders. TKG wins 42-14.
Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Lions travel to North Richland Hills as Division II's other undefeated team. Faith also enters well rested, having played just 3 games since October 1st. The Cardinals enter at 6-3 with two losses to Division I squads and the previously mentioned loss to TK Gorman. Both Faith and FWC have punished the district opposition with the lowest offensive output between the two being 40. The Cardinals have been less impressive with really just 2 blowouts on the season over Legacy and Prince of Peace. The Lions meanwhile have at least 41 in their last 5 games, and have an impressive showing besting Canadian in a neutral site clash. If FWC can keep the game in the 30s they have a great chance, especially at home. I think the Faith offense is too much and the potential showdown with TCCH looms on the playoff horizon. Lions win a close one 44-38.
Houston Second Baptist @ Houston Lutheran South -- The Pioneers had a memorable year last year for all the worst reasons after Hurricane Harvey. This season is a memorable one for much better reason as LSA has gone 8-1 and sets up for a district title game at Pioneer field. Only a 2 point loss to Concordia Lutheran blemishes the Pioneers season thus far. The Eagles should provide the strongest test since that loss. Second Baptist brings their own 8-1 record to this district title game, but didn't get to play last week when Fort Bend Christian forfeited. Both teams struggled to put away a Westbury squad that has yet to post a district win. The Pioneers needed OT and the Eagles scored just 22. This should be tight contest with ample points, but probably not a true shootout where the total exceeds 100. SBS beat Concordia Lutheran while LSA lost to them, so I'll go with the Eagles 35-32.
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions appeared to be an obvious favorite in Division I with an 8-0 record, a high powered offense, and an excellent defense. With wins over Liberty, Parish, and St. Pius already posted who was going to beat Prestonwood this year? The answer was Bishop Lynch who posted 50 on the home side of the scoreboard last week at Roffino Stadium, and could actually still finish 5th in the district. The Falcons bested that Bishop Lynch squad 21-13 the week prior and enter this district title clash off a bye week. Dunne lost their matchup with St. Pius but held the high powered SPX offense to just 17. No one has reached 20 against the Falcon defense this season, but the record is just 6-3. So the game hinges on how well the Dunne defense can control the Prestonwood offense. If the Lions post 40 like they did in last week's loss to Lynch they will beat the Falcons. If the Falcons can keep the Lions in that 21-27 area they will have a chance to push past the Lions. Prestonwood wins at home, but its going to be tight one. Lions win 30-26.
Tomball Rosehill Christian @ Beaumont Legacy Christian -- The Eagles head for the coast to settle Division IV District 4 in a matchup with the Warriors. Rosehill enters at 8-0 with having tossed 7 shutouts this season. They've not allowed a point since September 7th, 6 consecutive shutouts. Legacy is just 5-4 but started 0-3 before hitting their stride. They will have to find the scoring touch against the Eagles to secure the district crown and they have reached 30+ in their last 3. The Eagles defense should be a tougher unit than they've seen lately, and this should position Rosehill for a deep playoff run after securing the first round bye. Eagles win 24-0.
Quick Hits: (Season: 75-24)
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Argyle Liberty Christian
Midland Christian over Fort Worth All Saints
Fort Worth Nolan over Trinity Christian - Addison
Bishop Lynch over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Pius over Houston St. Thomas
San Antonio Holy Cross over Brownsville St. Joseph
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Boerne Geneva over Waco Reicher
The Woodlands Christian over Houston Northland Christian
Shiner St. Paul over San Antonio St. Gerard
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Temple Central Texas Christian
This Week: (Season: 60-14)
Dallas Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Chargers head east for the 2nd time in district play, and actually head to the same field they visited the first time. Perhaps it will be a drier visit to the Rose City. The DC defense has led the charge allowing only 7 points combined in their three district wins. The offense has been up and down, last week's 56 points was an up. Scoring just 21 at home against Brook Hill or 16 against TCCH were downs. The Cougars have had a curious campaign that sees them at just 5-4, but a win would likely get them into 2nd place in the district standings. In Grace's nine games, both teams have scored at least 28 in seven of them. One game saw the Cougars post a 21 point victory yet still allow 54, then the same team that scored 54 managed just 8 against TKG. The Cougars of course then beat TKG to position themselves to reach 2nd place possibly. The Cougars offense will probably keep them in this to the late stages, but they will have to find the big stops to win. While they've shown they can get those I think the Chargers run their series win streak to 7 in a row. DC wins 35-24.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard will welcome the defending state champs to Herrington Stadium with their own chance to climb into a tie for 2nd. They could also land in a 3-way tie for 3rd where one team will be out of the playoffs. In a game you need to win, seeing the 9-0 Tigers across the way is certainly not ideal. In four district games the closest an opponent has been at the end is 21 points and the Guard lost to both DC and TKG who TCCH controlled in their respective meetings. TCCH has only been held under 40 by DC, Melissa, and Bishop Lynch. The Guard may still reach the postseason out of the tie for 3rd, but I can't see where they get enough points to reach the playoffs by any other path. If you only scored 19 against TKG how are you going to post 40 against the Tigers. Tigers reach 10-0 with a 42-14 win.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ McKinney Christian -- The Crusaders have to win this road tilt to have a chance at the playoffs. A win and losses by Grace and Brook Hill would leave the Cru in a 3-way tie for 3rd and their dominant win over Brook Hill would likely be favorable. A win and a loss by only Brook Hill would definitely put the Cru in the playoffs. The Crusaders are just 5-4 after starting a promising 4-1 including a win over Fort Worth Christian. District play was not kind to TKG scoring just 6 points combined against stalwarts DC and TCCH and dropping a 2 point decision at Tyler Grace. The Mustangs have struggled in their first season in Division II, coming in with just a 2-6 record following a 56-0 shutout against DC. They did have a promising showing against Brook Hill posting 20 on the scoreboard. The Mustangs will have to find a new offensive gear to keep pace with the Crusaders. TKG wins 42-14.
Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Lions travel to North Richland Hills as Division II's other undefeated team. Faith also enters well rested, having played just 3 games since October 1st. The Cardinals enter at 6-3 with two losses to Division I squads and the previously mentioned loss to TK Gorman. Both Faith and FWC have punished the district opposition with the lowest offensive output between the two being 40. The Cardinals have been less impressive with really just 2 blowouts on the season over Legacy and Prince of Peace. The Lions meanwhile have at least 41 in their last 5 games, and have an impressive showing besting Canadian in a neutral site clash. If FWC can keep the game in the 30s they have a great chance, especially at home. I think the Faith offense is too much and the potential showdown with TCCH looms on the playoff horizon. Lions win a close one 44-38.
Houston Second Baptist @ Houston Lutheran South -- The Pioneers had a memorable year last year for all the worst reasons after Hurricane Harvey. This season is a memorable one for much better reason as LSA has gone 8-1 and sets up for a district title game at Pioneer field. Only a 2 point loss to Concordia Lutheran blemishes the Pioneers season thus far. The Eagles should provide the strongest test since that loss. Second Baptist brings their own 8-1 record to this district title game, but didn't get to play last week when Fort Bend Christian forfeited. Both teams struggled to put away a Westbury squad that has yet to post a district win. The Pioneers needed OT and the Eagles scored just 22. This should be tight contest with ample points, but probably not a true shootout where the total exceeds 100. SBS beat Concordia Lutheran while LSA lost to them, so I'll go with the Eagles 35-32.
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions appeared to be an obvious favorite in Division I with an 8-0 record, a high powered offense, and an excellent defense. With wins over Liberty, Parish, and St. Pius already posted who was going to beat Prestonwood this year? The answer was Bishop Lynch who posted 50 on the home side of the scoreboard last week at Roffino Stadium, and could actually still finish 5th in the district. The Falcons bested that Bishop Lynch squad 21-13 the week prior and enter this district title clash off a bye week. Dunne lost their matchup with St. Pius but held the high powered SPX offense to just 17. No one has reached 20 against the Falcon defense this season, but the record is just 6-3. So the game hinges on how well the Dunne defense can control the Prestonwood offense. If the Lions post 40 like they did in last week's loss to Lynch they will beat the Falcons. If the Falcons can keep the Lions in that 21-27 area they will have a chance to push past the Lions. Prestonwood wins at home, but its going to be tight one. Lions win 30-26.
Tomball Rosehill Christian @ Beaumont Legacy Christian -- The Eagles head for the coast to settle Division IV District 4 in a matchup with the Warriors. Rosehill enters at 8-0 with having tossed 7 shutouts this season. They've not allowed a point since September 7th, 6 consecutive shutouts. Legacy is just 5-4 but started 0-3 before hitting their stride. They will have to find the scoring touch against the Eagles to secure the district crown and they have reached 30+ in their last 3. The Eagles defense should be a tougher unit than they've seen lately, and this should position Rosehill for a deep playoff run after securing the first round bye. Eagles win 24-0.
Quick Hits: (Season: 75-24)
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Argyle Liberty Christian
Midland Christian over Fort Worth All Saints
Fort Worth Nolan over Trinity Christian - Addison
Bishop Lynch over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Pius over Houston St. Thomas
San Antonio Holy Cross over Brownsville St. Joseph
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Boerne Geneva over Waco Reicher
The Woodlands Christian over Houston Northland Christian
Shiner St. Paul over San Antonio St. Gerard
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Temple Central Texas Christian
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Week 10 Picks 2018
Plenty up for grabs this week with 2 games to play for almost everyone. Maybe not the most attractive group of matchups, but sometimes that's where to look for the upsets. Somehow the picks this week features two Eagles and three schools named Trinity. Lets try and work on our variety going forward.
This Week: (Season: 55-12)
McKinney Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers return to the home gridiron after taking their first loss. TCCH really put the screws to the DC offense and they rarely escaped the tight grip. When you put the game back together it wound up with the DC offense at 16, the TCCH offense at 21, but the TCCH defense had its own 16. The Chargers defense has been the better unit all year, but the offense will have to catch up when we get later in the month. Its been a tough season for the Mustangs in Division II at just 2-5 and also taking a 4 game losing streak. After allowing 54 to Tyler Grace in the district opener, holding Brook Hill to 39 last week was an improvement. TCCH blasted the Mustangs 49-0 and DC defeated Brook Hill 21-7. Its hard to see where the Mustangs score enough to keep themselves in this one. There are certainly no guarantees though. Chargers win big at home 42-9.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Crusaders find the temselves in the basement of District 2 after 3 weeks. The opening pair against DC and TCCH was always going to be a challenge, but following that with a loss to Tyler Grace has made this a must win for the Crusaders. They aren't out of the race if they can win this week since Tyler Grace still has both DC and TCCH to play. The Guard can virtually lock up 3rd place with a win, having already beaten McKinney Christian and Tyler Grace. When the defense hasn't betrayed them the Guard have been a good team. Holding DC to 21, Albany to 14, and Tyler Grace to 28 are among the good outings. On the negative ledger, Plano JP2 scored 48 in a home defeat. If the Crusaders score 40 like that the Guard will be beaten. Rather the Crusaders can regain that form remains to be seen. I think they will at home with their backs to the wall. Crusaders win 35-27.
Tyler Grace Community @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers defense squashed DC at every corner last week in securing their most important win of the season so far. The Tigers have been dominant in 6 of their 8 wins. The closest opponents have been Bishop Lynch and Melissa, and it is difficult to see the Cougars being on that level and stopping the quest for 14-0 and back-to-back titles. The Cougars did wonders for their playoff chances with a win over TKG last week that they definitely needed with DC and TCCH still to play. Slowing the Tigers offense will be a mountain to climb for Grace. The Cougars best defensive game was holding McKinney Christian to 18. Each of the 7 other opponents have scored at least 28. TCCH will probably score more than that. Tigers dominate at home 45-12.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Lions have met every challenge as the defending state champion, putting up bundles of points in the last 4 weeks particularly. Perhaps Parish scoring 24 last week is sign of weakness, but more likely its just that they are one of the best opponents seen thus far and Prestonwood still held all the cards in the result. The Friars are probably a better squad than a 3-4 record would suggest, given the largest margin of defeat on the year is 8. The dominant win over Nolan on Oct. 5 suggests that the top 4 teams in District 2 might all win District 1. The Friars defense is probably the best the Lions have seen in a while, and maybe even the best of the season. A trip to Roffino Stadium makes this a little more difficult for the Lions, but I think they'll still get over the hump to 9-0. Another close loss for the Friars 35-21.
Argyle Liberty Christian @ Trinity Christian - Addison -- The Trojans actually had one of the better games played against Prestonwood this year, but its come undone in a bad way since, winning just once in eight tries. The Warriors are out at 4-4, but have won big district games the last two times out. A win here would assure Liberty of the 2nd slot in District 1 and they'll be heavily favored to achieve that. The usually strong Liberty defense has been showing weakness in recent weeks, allowing 34 and 36 in their last 2. The Warriors won both games though. In simpler terms, Liberty beat All Saints 49-36 while TCA lost 20-7. Warriors win on the road, 35-21.
Victoria St. Joseph @ Houston Westbury Christian -- The Flyers have enjoyed a resurgent campaign, winning five games for the first time since 2009. They've won only one district game though and need a win to move up the standings. The Wildcats were a playoff team a year ago, but have managed just one win this season. Westbury has lost three district games, by 6 in OT, by 3, and by 14. St. Joseph on the other hand has been blown out by Second Baptist and Lutheran South before besting Fort Bend Christian. On the road this looks to be an uphill climb for the Flyers, but that's weird to say when the opposition has just a single win. Westbury finally wins a close one, 30-26.
Lubbock Christian @ Willow Park Trinity Christian -- Eagles descend on Parker County for an early start in a key Division III contest. Both Trinity and LCS are 5-3 and the winner will move into 2nd place in District 1. Lubbock Christian already had their shot at Coram Deo, falling by a single point 35-34. Trinity will play Coram Deo next week and a win this week sets up a winner-take-all game for the district title. A road win for LCS would make things very interesting at the top and set up a possible 3-way tie. The West Texas slant in the LCS non-district slate makes comparing difficult. Both teams have dominated the lesser squads in district play. Lubbock Christian has scored 150 more points than Trinity this season while allowing just 1 point more. The LCS offense must be the difference if they are going to win on the road here. I don't think they'll have enough. Trinity wins 42-35.
Quick Hits: (Season: 67-22)
Fort Worth Christian over Carrollton Prince of Peace
Grapevine Faith Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Fort Worth Nolan over Fort Worth All Saints
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin Hyde Park
Austin Regents over Austin St. Michael's
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Cypress Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Plano John Paul II
San Antonio Central Catholic over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Austin Texas School for the Deaf over Waco Reicher
Beaumont Kelly over Tyler All Saints
This Week: (Season: 55-12)
McKinney Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers return to the home gridiron after taking their first loss. TCCH really put the screws to the DC offense and they rarely escaped the tight grip. When you put the game back together it wound up with the DC offense at 16, the TCCH offense at 21, but the TCCH defense had its own 16. The Chargers defense has been the better unit all year, but the offense will have to catch up when we get later in the month. Its been a tough season for the Mustangs in Division II at just 2-5 and also taking a 4 game losing streak. After allowing 54 to Tyler Grace in the district opener, holding Brook Hill to 39 last week was an improvement. TCCH blasted the Mustangs 49-0 and DC defeated Brook Hill 21-7. Its hard to see where the Mustangs score enough to keep themselves in this one. There are certainly no guarantees though. Chargers win big at home 42-9.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Crusaders find the temselves in the basement of District 2 after 3 weeks. The opening pair against DC and TCCH was always going to be a challenge, but following that with a loss to Tyler Grace has made this a must win for the Crusaders. They aren't out of the race if they can win this week since Tyler Grace still has both DC and TCCH to play. The Guard can virtually lock up 3rd place with a win, having already beaten McKinney Christian and Tyler Grace. When the defense hasn't betrayed them the Guard have been a good team. Holding DC to 21, Albany to 14, and Tyler Grace to 28 are among the good outings. On the negative ledger, Plano JP2 scored 48 in a home defeat. If the Crusaders score 40 like that the Guard will be beaten. Rather the Crusaders can regain that form remains to be seen. I think they will at home with their backs to the wall. Crusaders win 35-27.
Tyler Grace Community @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers defense squashed DC at every corner last week in securing their most important win of the season so far. The Tigers have been dominant in 6 of their 8 wins. The closest opponents have been Bishop Lynch and Melissa, and it is difficult to see the Cougars being on that level and stopping the quest for 14-0 and back-to-back titles. The Cougars did wonders for their playoff chances with a win over TKG last week that they definitely needed with DC and TCCH still to play. Slowing the Tigers offense will be a mountain to climb for Grace. The Cougars best defensive game was holding McKinney Christian to 18. Each of the 7 other opponents have scored at least 28. TCCH will probably score more than that. Tigers dominate at home 45-12.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Lions have met every challenge as the defending state champion, putting up bundles of points in the last 4 weeks particularly. Perhaps Parish scoring 24 last week is sign of weakness, but more likely its just that they are one of the best opponents seen thus far and Prestonwood still held all the cards in the result. The Friars are probably a better squad than a 3-4 record would suggest, given the largest margin of defeat on the year is 8. The dominant win over Nolan on Oct. 5 suggests that the top 4 teams in District 2 might all win District 1. The Friars defense is probably the best the Lions have seen in a while, and maybe even the best of the season. A trip to Roffino Stadium makes this a little more difficult for the Lions, but I think they'll still get over the hump to 9-0. Another close loss for the Friars 35-21.
Argyle Liberty Christian @ Trinity Christian - Addison -- The Trojans actually had one of the better games played against Prestonwood this year, but its come undone in a bad way since, winning just once in eight tries. The Warriors are out at 4-4, but have won big district games the last two times out. A win here would assure Liberty of the 2nd slot in District 1 and they'll be heavily favored to achieve that. The usually strong Liberty defense has been showing weakness in recent weeks, allowing 34 and 36 in their last 2. The Warriors won both games though. In simpler terms, Liberty beat All Saints 49-36 while TCA lost 20-7. Warriors win on the road, 35-21.
Victoria St. Joseph @ Houston Westbury Christian -- The Flyers have enjoyed a resurgent campaign, winning five games for the first time since 2009. They've won only one district game though and need a win to move up the standings. The Wildcats were a playoff team a year ago, but have managed just one win this season. Westbury has lost three district games, by 6 in OT, by 3, and by 14. St. Joseph on the other hand has been blown out by Second Baptist and Lutheran South before besting Fort Bend Christian. On the road this looks to be an uphill climb for the Flyers, but that's weird to say when the opposition has just a single win. Westbury finally wins a close one, 30-26.
Lubbock Christian @ Willow Park Trinity Christian -- Eagles descend on Parker County for an early start in a key Division III contest. Both Trinity and LCS are 5-3 and the winner will move into 2nd place in District 1. Lubbock Christian already had their shot at Coram Deo, falling by a single point 35-34. Trinity will play Coram Deo next week and a win this week sets up a winner-take-all game for the district title. A road win for LCS would make things very interesting at the top and set up a possible 3-way tie. The West Texas slant in the LCS non-district slate makes comparing difficult. Both teams have dominated the lesser squads in district play. Lubbock Christian has scored 150 more points than Trinity this season while allowing just 1 point more. The LCS offense must be the difference if they are going to win on the road here. I don't think they'll have enough. Trinity wins 42-35.
Quick Hits: (Season: 67-22)
Fort Worth Christian over Carrollton Prince of Peace
Grapevine Faith Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Fort Worth Nolan over Fort Worth All Saints
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin Hyde Park
Austin Regents over Austin St. Michael's
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Cypress Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Plano John Paul II
San Antonio Central Catholic over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Austin Texas School for the Deaf over Waco Reicher
Beaumont Kelly over Tyler All Saints
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
Week 9 Picks 2018
Just three weeks remain in the regular season. The weather has begun to turn, it might not rain this week, times are good in Texas. Good luck and safe travels.
This Week: (Season: 50-10)
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Dallas Christian -- The Division II favorite Tigers travel around 635 to Mesquite for the key district tilt in District 2. Both teams enter at 7-0 records with DC lacking the wow factor in their 7 wins. The Tigers have really nice looking wins over Bishop Lynch and Melissa in their first 4 games and some nice offensive outputs of 66, 52, and 49 in their last three outings. The Chargers in comparison posted only 35 in last week's Tyler monsoon and managed just 21 against Brook Hill. The weather is a wildcard this year as they scored 54 in good weather at Kemp. DC will have to score to get the upset of the defending state champions. Perhaps the road slows the Tigers but its going to be a big test for the Chargers. If you are a regular visitor to this space you know who is getting picked to win no matter the analysis. Chargers pull the upset 28-27.
Bullard Brook Hill @ McKinney Christian -- The Guard secured a big district win over Tyler Grace last week, leveling their district record at 1-1. The Mustangs appear to have an uphill climb to reach the postseason after starting 2-4 and 0-2 in district. Wins over Fort Worth Temple and Waco Reicher are not enough to inspire much hope in this one. Both squads have matched up with Tyler Grace early in the district slate with the Mustangs falling by 36 and the Guard winning by 3. The McKinney Christian defense will have to reach a new level to keep Brook Hill in range. Its a pretty long road trip for Brook Hill (insert West Texas laughter here), and Plano John Paul II did put up 48 on both teams. Brook Hill should have enough to notch this win though. Guard win 35-13.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Crusaders visit Clyde-Perkins Stadium for the 2nd straight week. This time they actually take on the host Cougars. TKG has dropped both games against district favorites DC and TCCH to open the district slate and scored just 6 points in the process. The Crusaders were off to a much better start than their cross-town rivals going 4-1 in the non-district with wins over quality opponents in Fort Worth Christian and Garrison. TKG also dominated Redwater by a 49-8 margin, the week after they had posted 54 against Tyler Grace. The Cougars did win that game, scoring 75 of their own. The Cougars put at least 42 on the scoreboard in 5 of their first 6 games, but dropped a key district game at Brook Hill last week. The road to the playoffs gets very murky for Grace if they can't get this one at home, since they finish with DC and TCCH for their final 2. The Grace defense must improve to best TKG, but perhaps the blueprint for slowing the Crusaders has been shown. I think the Crusaders score too many to be caught this week though. TKG wins 42-30.
Austin Brentwood Christian @ Austin Regents -- The Bears have been on an upstart campaign in District 3 charging to 7-0 and winning their district opener against St. Michael's. Brentwood though lacks the big win over opposition with the Regents pedigree, and so we enter with a bit of an unknown. There have been dominant wins including posting at least 40 in three of the last five weeks. The Knights will not go into the postseason with the weight of an undefeated record this year after falling to San Antonio Central, but have recorded three excellent defensive showings since that defeat, allowing just 32 points in three weeks after the Buttons scored 36. That defense should be enough to win at the clearing known at the Regents football field, but don't expect an easy out of the Bears. Knights win 30-12.
Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Nolan -- I thought we'd be looking at the likely district title game after the Mustangs would go to 8-0 by besting Liberty at home, but the Warriors shot down that idea. The Mustangs appear to be the toughest opposition left for the Vikings and the main thing standing in the way of earning the 1st round bye on offer to the District 1 champ. Nolan enters at 6-1 having only lost to Bishop Lynch in the non-district slate and having bested Liberty 49-21 in their district opener. The Mustangs fell at home to the same Liberty squad last week 41-34. In a game now dominated by offense, the Mustangs reached 7-0 without scoring 40 in any game. I wouldn't call their offense a struggle though, as they've posted at least 20 in every game. If the Mustangs can score they will be tough for Nolan to match. The road shouldn't phase the Permian Basin travelers, but I think the Vikings are just too much given the Liberty results and MCS close games with teams I think Nolan is better than. Vikings win 35-27.
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Catholic showdown visits Rugged Drive as the Friars search for their first district win this season. In some ways, all of this is a prelude to the real action given every team will be in the playoff bracket come November. After besting Nolan by 24, I was surprised to see Lynch fall to Parish last week and the Falcons' defense is not the unit you'd like to see after a disappointing loss. The Falcons have not had a bye week yet in matching Lynch's three loss total, recording close low-scoring defeats against Shreveport Byrd, Desoto, and Houston St. Pius. All 3 setback came on the road. The Falcons stay home for this test where they beat Parish Episcopal just 2 weeks ago. The most anyone has scored on Dunne is 19, so if the Falcons reach 20 they win this one. No easy task in this rivalry showdown though. Falcons get just enough and win 26-19.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Lions have reached 7-0 and current favorite status by winning last year's state title and putting up at least 49 points in their last 4 games. Curiously TCA was the last to hold Prestonwood to just 30. The weather problems of this season make examining margins of victory a little problematic though. Keeping up with that potent offense will be the task for the Panthers. They do get the Lions on the blue turf this week but probably need to find an offensive form that they haven't showed in the last 3 weeks, averaging just 22 points per game in that short stretch. I can't see 22 being enough for either side to win this one. The Lions offense will score too many, but the Panthers should find the scoreboard some. Prestonwood eases away in the 2nd half, winning 49-22.
Quick Hits: (Season: 59-20)
Fort Worth Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Carrollton Prince of Peace over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Austin Hyde Park over Austin St. Michael's
Argyle Liberty Christian over Fort Worth All Saints
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Westbury Christian
Victoria St. Joseph over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Lubbock Trinity Christian
Lubbock Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Fort Worth Trinity Valley over Irving Cistercian
Katy St. John XXIII over Tyler All Saints
This Week: (Season: 50-10)
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Dallas Christian -- The Division II favorite Tigers travel around 635 to Mesquite for the key district tilt in District 2. Both teams enter at 7-0 records with DC lacking the wow factor in their 7 wins. The Tigers have really nice looking wins over Bishop Lynch and Melissa in their first 4 games and some nice offensive outputs of 66, 52, and 49 in their last three outings. The Chargers in comparison posted only 35 in last week's Tyler monsoon and managed just 21 against Brook Hill. The weather is a wildcard this year as they scored 54 in good weather at Kemp. DC will have to score to get the upset of the defending state champions. Perhaps the road slows the Tigers but its going to be a big test for the Chargers. If you are a regular visitor to this space you know who is getting picked to win no matter the analysis. Chargers pull the upset 28-27.
Bullard Brook Hill @ McKinney Christian -- The Guard secured a big district win over Tyler Grace last week, leveling their district record at 1-1. The Mustangs appear to have an uphill climb to reach the postseason after starting 2-4 and 0-2 in district. Wins over Fort Worth Temple and Waco Reicher are not enough to inspire much hope in this one. Both squads have matched up with Tyler Grace early in the district slate with the Mustangs falling by 36 and the Guard winning by 3. The McKinney Christian defense will have to reach a new level to keep Brook Hill in range. Its a pretty long road trip for Brook Hill (insert West Texas laughter here), and Plano John Paul II did put up 48 on both teams. Brook Hill should have enough to notch this win though. Guard win 35-13.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Crusaders visit Clyde-Perkins Stadium for the 2nd straight week. This time they actually take on the host Cougars. TKG has dropped both games against district favorites DC and TCCH to open the district slate and scored just 6 points in the process. The Crusaders were off to a much better start than their cross-town rivals going 4-1 in the non-district with wins over quality opponents in Fort Worth Christian and Garrison. TKG also dominated Redwater by a 49-8 margin, the week after they had posted 54 against Tyler Grace. The Cougars did win that game, scoring 75 of their own. The Cougars put at least 42 on the scoreboard in 5 of their first 6 games, but dropped a key district game at Brook Hill last week. The road to the playoffs gets very murky for Grace if they can't get this one at home, since they finish with DC and TCCH for their final 2. The Grace defense must improve to best TKG, but perhaps the blueprint for slowing the Crusaders has been shown. I think the Crusaders score too many to be caught this week though. TKG wins 42-30.
Austin Brentwood Christian @ Austin Regents -- The Bears have been on an upstart campaign in District 3 charging to 7-0 and winning their district opener against St. Michael's. Brentwood though lacks the big win over opposition with the Regents pedigree, and so we enter with a bit of an unknown. There have been dominant wins including posting at least 40 in three of the last five weeks. The Knights will not go into the postseason with the weight of an undefeated record this year after falling to San Antonio Central, but have recorded three excellent defensive showings since that defeat, allowing just 32 points in three weeks after the Buttons scored 36. That defense should be enough to win at the clearing known at the Regents football field, but don't expect an easy out of the Bears. Knights win 30-12.
Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Nolan -- I thought we'd be looking at the likely district title game after the Mustangs would go to 8-0 by besting Liberty at home, but the Warriors shot down that idea. The Mustangs appear to be the toughest opposition left for the Vikings and the main thing standing in the way of earning the 1st round bye on offer to the District 1 champ. Nolan enters at 6-1 having only lost to Bishop Lynch in the non-district slate and having bested Liberty 49-21 in their district opener. The Mustangs fell at home to the same Liberty squad last week 41-34. In a game now dominated by offense, the Mustangs reached 7-0 without scoring 40 in any game. I wouldn't call their offense a struggle though, as they've posted at least 20 in every game. If the Mustangs can score they will be tough for Nolan to match. The road shouldn't phase the Permian Basin travelers, but I think the Vikings are just too much given the Liberty results and MCS close games with teams I think Nolan is better than. Vikings win 35-27.
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Catholic showdown visits Rugged Drive as the Friars search for their first district win this season. In some ways, all of this is a prelude to the real action given every team will be in the playoff bracket come November. After besting Nolan by 24, I was surprised to see Lynch fall to Parish last week and the Falcons' defense is not the unit you'd like to see after a disappointing loss. The Falcons have not had a bye week yet in matching Lynch's three loss total, recording close low-scoring defeats against Shreveport Byrd, Desoto, and Houston St. Pius. All 3 setback came on the road. The Falcons stay home for this test where they beat Parish Episcopal just 2 weeks ago. The most anyone has scored on Dunne is 19, so if the Falcons reach 20 they win this one. No easy task in this rivalry showdown though. Falcons get just enough and win 26-19.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Lions have reached 7-0 and current favorite status by winning last year's state title and putting up at least 49 points in their last 4 games. Curiously TCA was the last to hold Prestonwood to just 30. The weather problems of this season make examining margins of victory a little problematic though. Keeping up with that potent offense will be the task for the Panthers. They do get the Lions on the blue turf this week but probably need to find an offensive form that they haven't showed in the last 3 weeks, averaging just 22 points per game in that short stretch. I can't see 22 being enough for either side to win this one. The Lions offense will score too many, but the Panthers should find the scoreboard some. Prestonwood eases away in the 2nd half, winning 49-22.
Quick Hits: (Season: 59-20)
Fort Worth Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Carrollton Prince of Peace over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Austin Hyde Park over Austin St. Michael's
Argyle Liberty Christian over Fort Worth All Saints
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Westbury Christian
Victoria St. Joseph over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Lubbock Trinity Christian
Lubbock Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Fort Worth Trinity Valley over Irving Cistercian
Katy St. John XXIII over Tyler All Saints
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Week 8 Picks 2018
Everyone board your boats as we travel to our games this week. District standings will start to sort themselves out very quickly. Its rare I move a game in DC's district to the Quick Hits section, but too many other good games (or at least good mascots) this week.
This Week: (Season: 45-8)
Dallas Christian vs. Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Tyler Grace -- The rain moves this one slightly around Loop 323 to Tyler Grace from the previously planned visit to McCallum Stadium. The Chargers toppled Brook Hill last week in a 21-7 slog. The weather this season has been plagued with makes every week that much trickier to analyze. DC has reached 6-0 and now has the two big games in back to back weeks. The Chargers must not look past the Crusaders and ahead to TCCH next week. The Chargers have allowed no more than 14 points in any game this season, but somewhat curiously have no shutouts through 6 games. The Crusaders fell to 4-2 after being pounded by TCCH last week. TKG has posted at least 42 points in each of their 4 wins while TCCH limited them to just 6 points last week. The Chargers and Crusaders have played many classic games, 7-0, overtime thrillers, 97 yard punts, just to name 3. The author is not totally unbiased, but the Chargers defense should win the day. DC wins 33-14.
Tyler Grace Community @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Cougars travel across Smith County to Herrington Stadium to matchup with the Guard. The Guard secured 4 non-district wins before falling 21-7 at DC to open district play. The lack of common opponents makes this a hard to forecast. The Cougars have 4 nice wins of their own, but have been a bit porous defensively allowing numbers like 54, 40, and 34 in wins. The Guard may not be a juggernaut offense, but there is certainly some ability with outputs of 42, 42, and 50 among their winning efforts. The best I can point to is to expect a high scoring game. There is plenty at stake here with the winner having a leg up on the 4th playoff spot and a shot at the DC-TKG loser to shoot for 3rd. The Cougars won this one a year ago 63-13. The Guard should be closer than that, but the Cougars are still the pick. Grace wins 46-32.
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Friars recorded 3 consecutive wins before their bye and opening district play. The Panthers unbeaten season came to a end with a 16-7 loss to Bishop Dunne. The Parish offense posted outputs of 56 the first two weeks, but has taken a steady tumble falling first to 48 then 31 then the Dunne limited them to just 7. Bishop Lynch is probably not who you want to see when you are trying to get on track offensively based on track records. The Panthers offense may be the top unit we expected before last week, but with so few common data points its hard to compare. Look for a turnover or special teams play to swing things in a low scoring battle. Panthers win at home 20-17.
Grapevine Faith Christian @ Carrollton Prince of Peace -- The week's only battle of unbeaten private schools heads to Midway Road as the Lions visit the Eagles. The Lions may not have been the pick to be undefeated at this point, but after winning the state title in 2016 its not a shock. The Eagles are a more surprising addition to the undefeated ranks, but have been impressive on offense to reach 6-0. The opposition definitely ramps up here for the Eagles, but they do enter district play off a bye. Outputs in the 60s will certainly win you a lot of games, but its very much an open question if they can do it against the likes of Faith. The Lions blasted Frisco Legacy 56-0 to open the district slate last week and hopefully kept any "Beat the Eagles" signage to reuse this week. Faith's best result to this point is a neutral site win over Canadian and they going to be a force to be reckoned with in Division II this year. History suggests that the Lions will be too much for the Eagles, but I think the Prince of Peace style will keep it interesting for much of the 1st half. Lions run away with this one later on and win 45-18.
Argyle Liberty Christian @ Midland Christian -- The longtime rivals head to Awtry Field to renew this matchup. The two have actually played very few times on the MCS campus despite playing at seemingly every stadium in Denton and Midland Counties. The "game of inches" was played at what is not the UNT soccer field. "Showergate" was at Bronco Stadium in Denton. This is at least 3rd different field the Mustangs have hosted the Warriors at in Midland. The Mustangs are off to what I consider a surprising 7-0 start and can be one of the first in the state to reach 8-0. They will set themselves up to secure a district title if they can win the next t2o against Liberty and Nolan. The Warriors have notched just 2 wins in 6 outings, but besting Brock is one of the better wins in the division even if rain shortened. Nolan held the Liberty offense in check after the Warriors blasted Hyde Park with 51. If the Warriors can not get to 30 they will have a hard time with MCS who has posted close win after close win this season. Can't see the Warriors stealing this one in the Tall City. Mustangs win 33-24.
Austin Hyde Park @ Austin Regents -- The Knights have reached the last 2 state championship games, but suffered at setback against Central Catholic in Week 4. The Regents offense has posted over 40 in 3 wins this year with other victories over Holy Cross and FW All Saints. The All Saints win appeared to be a possible upset at the time, but things have played out differently for the Saints. The Panthers started with 3 nice looking wins over Holy Cross, Comfort, and Houston St. John's before hitting times with Rockdale and allowing 51 points at Argyle Liberty. This is the district opener for both teams with just 4 teams in District 3. The Regents offense should be too much at home, but the Panthers are never pushover. Knights win 35-21.
Houston Lutheran South @ Victoria St. Joseph -- The Pioneers take a long district road trip by their standards as they head toward the Coastal Bend. The Flyers have experienced a bit of resurgence this year starting 4-2. They were dominated by district favorites Second Baptist last week in the district opener. An offensive performance like the 59 they posted in the opener will be needed this week. LSA opened district play by blowing out Fort Bend Christian and the Pioneer offense has rolled up the points since a 16-15 opening win and a 33-31 loss in Week 2. The Flyers have definitely improved and should figure into the playoff spots in District 5, but I don't think they'll have enough this week. This battle of great mascots goes to the Pioneers 40-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 49-19)
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill over McKinney Christian
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Dallas Bishop Dunne over Plano John Paul II
Fort Worth All Saints over Trinity Christian - Addison (Can't say I thought these two would have 2 wins between them in Week 8)
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Kennedale Fellowship Academy
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin St. Michael's
San Antonio Holy Cross over San Antonio Christian
Houston Cypress Christian over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Houston Westbury Christian
Houston St. Pius X over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
This Week: (Season: 45-8)
Dallas Christian vs. Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Tyler Grace -- The rain moves this one slightly around Loop 323 to Tyler Grace from the previously planned visit to McCallum Stadium. The Chargers toppled Brook Hill last week in a 21-7 slog. The weather this season has been plagued with makes every week that much trickier to analyze. DC has reached 6-0 and now has the two big games in back to back weeks. The Chargers must not look past the Crusaders and ahead to TCCH next week. The Chargers have allowed no more than 14 points in any game this season, but somewhat curiously have no shutouts through 6 games. The Crusaders fell to 4-2 after being pounded by TCCH last week. TKG has posted at least 42 points in each of their 4 wins while TCCH limited them to just 6 points last week. The Chargers and Crusaders have played many classic games, 7-0, overtime thrillers, 97 yard punts, just to name 3. The author is not totally unbiased, but the Chargers defense should win the day. DC wins 33-14.
Tyler Grace Community @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Cougars travel across Smith County to Herrington Stadium to matchup with the Guard. The Guard secured 4 non-district wins before falling 21-7 at DC to open district play. The lack of common opponents makes this a hard to forecast. The Cougars have 4 nice wins of their own, but have been a bit porous defensively allowing numbers like 54, 40, and 34 in wins. The Guard may not be a juggernaut offense, but there is certainly some ability with outputs of 42, 42, and 50 among their winning efforts. The best I can point to is to expect a high scoring game. There is plenty at stake here with the winner having a leg up on the 4th playoff spot and a shot at the DC-TKG loser to shoot for 3rd. The Cougars won this one a year ago 63-13. The Guard should be closer than that, but the Cougars are still the pick. Grace wins 46-32.
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Friars recorded 3 consecutive wins before their bye and opening district play. The Panthers unbeaten season came to a end with a 16-7 loss to Bishop Dunne. The Parish offense posted outputs of 56 the first two weeks, but has taken a steady tumble falling first to 48 then 31 then the Dunne limited them to just 7. Bishop Lynch is probably not who you want to see when you are trying to get on track offensively based on track records. The Panthers offense may be the top unit we expected before last week, but with so few common data points its hard to compare. Look for a turnover or special teams play to swing things in a low scoring battle. Panthers win at home 20-17.
Grapevine Faith Christian @ Carrollton Prince of Peace -- The week's only battle of unbeaten private schools heads to Midway Road as the Lions visit the Eagles. The Lions may not have been the pick to be undefeated at this point, but after winning the state title in 2016 its not a shock. The Eagles are a more surprising addition to the undefeated ranks, but have been impressive on offense to reach 6-0. The opposition definitely ramps up here for the Eagles, but they do enter district play off a bye. Outputs in the 60s will certainly win you a lot of games, but its very much an open question if they can do it against the likes of Faith. The Lions blasted Frisco Legacy 56-0 to open the district slate last week and hopefully kept any "Beat the Eagles" signage to reuse this week. Faith's best result to this point is a neutral site win over Canadian and they going to be a force to be reckoned with in Division II this year. History suggests that the Lions will be too much for the Eagles, but I think the Prince of Peace style will keep it interesting for much of the 1st half. Lions run away with this one later on and win 45-18.
Argyle Liberty Christian @ Midland Christian -- The longtime rivals head to Awtry Field to renew this matchup. The two have actually played very few times on the MCS campus despite playing at seemingly every stadium in Denton and Midland Counties. The "game of inches" was played at what is not the UNT soccer field. "Showergate" was at Bronco Stadium in Denton. This is at least 3rd different field the Mustangs have hosted the Warriors at in Midland. The Mustangs are off to what I consider a surprising 7-0 start and can be one of the first in the state to reach 8-0. They will set themselves up to secure a district title if they can win the next t2o against Liberty and Nolan. The Warriors have notched just 2 wins in 6 outings, but besting Brock is one of the better wins in the division even if rain shortened. Nolan held the Liberty offense in check after the Warriors blasted Hyde Park with 51. If the Warriors can not get to 30 they will have a hard time with MCS who has posted close win after close win this season. Can't see the Warriors stealing this one in the Tall City. Mustangs win 33-24.
Austin Hyde Park @ Austin Regents -- The Knights have reached the last 2 state championship games, but suffered at setback against Central Catholic in Week 4. The Regents offense has posted over 40 in 3 wins this year with other victories over Holy Cross and FW All Saints. The All Saints win appeared to be a possible upset at the time, but things have played out differently for the Saints. The Panthers started with 3 nice looking wins over Holy Cross, Comfort, and Houston St. John's before hitting times with Rockdale and allowing 51 points at Argyle Liberty. This is the district opener for both teams with just 4 teams in District 3. The Regents offense should be too much at home, but the Panthers are never pushover. Knights win 35-21.
Houston Lutheran South @ Victoria St. Joseph -- The Pioneers take a long district road trip by their standards as they head toward the Coastal Bend. The Flyers have experienced a bit of resurgence this year starting 4-2. They were dominated by district favorites Second Baptist last week in the district opener. An offensive performance like the 59 they posted in the opener will be needed this week. LSA opened district play by blowing out Fort Bend Christian and the Pioneer offense has rolled up the points since a 16-15 opening win and a 33-31 loss in Week 2. The Flyers have definitely improved and should figure into the playoff spots in District 5, but I don't think they'll have enough this week. This battle of great mascots goes to the Pioneers 40-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 49-19)
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill over McKinney Christian
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Dallas Bishop Dunne over Plano John Paul II
Fort Worth All Saints over Trinity Christian - Addison (Can't say I thought these two would have 2 wins between them in Week 8)
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Kennedale Fellowship Academy
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin St. Michael's
San Antonio Holy Cross over San Antonio Christian
Houston Cypress Christian over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Houston Westbury Christian
Houston St. Pius X over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Week 7 Picks 2018
Many districts reach district play and the tensions ramp up. Who will announce themselves as a contender and who will slip?
This Week: (Season: 40-6)
Bullard Brook Hill @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers enter the district slate with a 5-0 record and coming off a bye week. The Guard are the last team to come to Wheeler Field and leave with a district victory, besting the Chargers in 2014. The Guard have started 4-1 and also enter off a bye week into the district slate. Brook Hill has posted a plethora of points scoring 42, 42, and 50 in three of their wins. The Guard will need all of those points to succeed this week and score a big road upset. The Chargers have allowed no more than 14 in all five wins (though one was just a half). If the Guard can roll up 4 touchdowns, they'll have a great chance. In common opponents both teams played Plano JP2, with Brook Hill falling at home 48-29 and DC winning a road contest 37-7. If the Chargers do not get caught looking ahead to TKG next week they should run away with this one. Chargers win 38-13.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Tigers take the show to the Rose City having started 5-0. TCCH has picked right where they left off with the state championship last season and have only cemented their favorite status thus far. The Crusaders return home after winning blow out road games against Redwater and Reicher in their last two outings. A one point loss to Tenaha is the only blemish on either record entering district play. The Tigers offense overwhelmed Houston St. Thomas last time we saw them, posting 66 point before the bye week. The season opening win over Bishop Lynch still looks a great win, but blowing out All Saints seems very common this season. This looks to be TKG's best defense in several seasons, but last year's team looked that way too. When the Crusaders reached the tough district games, it fell apart. I think TKG should hold TCCH under last season's output of 75 when they met head-to-head, but the Tigers will be too much. TCCH wins 42-21.
Tyler Grace Community @ McKinney Christian -- The Cougars head to new district mate McKinney Christian at a 3-2 mark. The best defensive performance for Grace thus far is holding Wills Point to 34. Given those numbers its a testament to their offense that they've won more than they've lost. The Mustangs are off to a 2-2 start with just 1 home game thus far thanks to the weather. After a shutout win over Reicher showed some spark, being blown out by Plano JP2 does not bode well for the district slate. The Cougars offense has a stalwart unit, scoring 42+ in every game except for the trip to Parish Episcopal. The non-district slate has put DC, TKG, and of course TCCH as the top teams in the District 2. The winner here will have the first shots at ascending into that group, and Grace gets 2 of 3 at home if they can get past the Mustangs and Guard. I think the Grace offense will be too much for the Mustangs, but if they are not in usual 42 point form then the home team will be in it. Grace wins 48-28.
Trinity Christian - Addison @ Midland Christian -- Certainly no one had the Mustangs as a pushover in Division I this year, but I'm not sure many had them at 6-0 to start district play. MCS has not been dominant in any of their 6 wins, but they haven't played any pushovers either. Two wins over UIL 6A opposition and road wins at FWC and an always strong Monahans team. All Saints struggles probably has MCS pointing toward two big games with Liberty and Nolan and eyes on possibly a district title. The Trojans have long been the underdog that will beat you in the former District 1 of Division I and they appear to be that in this new District 1 too. They've only found the win column once in 6 outings and dropping last week's game to Plano JP2 has to be very concerning for the district slate ahead. TCA will not be a walkover, but this looks to be a tall task for the Trojans. The long trip and the staunch Mustang defense appear to be too much to overcome. Mustangs win 35-19.
Fort Worth Nolan @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Warriors and Vikings are both in position to benefit from All Saints struggles in the non-district and this district opener has large implications toward the district title given its 25% of these teams district records. The Vikings dropped their first game of the season last week to Bishop Lynch, but posted nice wins over Kinkaid and Celina earlier on. The Warriors did not get their chance at Celina due to the weather, but scored a quality rain-shortened shutout win over Brock before blowing out Hyde Park last week to complete a 2-3 non-district slate. The Warriors allowed at least 37 in each of 3 losses and just 10 points combined in their 2 wins. If the Vikings can put the ball in the endzone I can't see Liberty keeping pace. With early district favorite status on the line, I think Nolan scores an early road win. Vikings win 38-20.
Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Panthers had a down campaign last year, finishing just 5-7. They've returned with a vengeance this year, starting 5-0 and averaging over 48 points per game offensively and allowing just over 7. The Falcons took a tough road loss to Houston St. Pius X before a national audience, but only by 17-7. The teams were a bit offensively challenged, but plenty can be credited to both defenses. In their 3 losses the Falcons have struggled offensively and will have to be better to best the Panthers. If Dunne can get to 30 they should have a chance, as that will keep the Parish offense off the field. I think the Panthers are too good on this day. Parish wins 40-22.
Flower Mound Coram Deo @ Lubbock Christian -- The Lions have started 5-0 allowing just 12 points in the last 4 weeks. The Eagles are off to a 3-2 start but comparing their non-district results is always tough given the geography. Losses to Sundown and Tulia space between three wins where the Eagles scored 51, 52, and 56. The Eagles certainly have the historical success edge, but winning last year really doesn't get you any wins this year. The Lions have to hold the Eagles under 30 to win I think, especially considering the bus ride to Lubbock. I can't see enough stops to pull this one off though. Eagles win 38-25.
Quick Hits: (Season: 38-19)
Grapevine Faith Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Central Catholic
San Antonio Holy Cross over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Austin Hyde Park over San Antonio Christian
Houston Lutheran South over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
The Woodlands Christian over Houston Lutheran North
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Midland Trinity Christian
Austin Brentwood Christian over Shiner St. Paul
This Week: (Season: 40-6)
Bullard Brook Hill @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers enter the district slate with a 5-0 record and coming off a bye week. The Guard are the last team to come to Wheeler Field and leave with a district victory, besting the Chargers in 2014. The Guard have started 4-1 and also enter off a bye week into the district slate. Brook Hill has posted a plethora of points scoring 42, 42, and 50 in three of their wins. The Guard will need all of those points to succeed this week and score a big road upset. The Chargers have allowed no more than 14 in all five wins (though one was just a half). If the Guard can roll up 4 touchdowns, they'll have a great chance. In common opponents both teams played Plano JP2, with Brook Hill falling at home 48-29 and DC winning a road contest 37-7. If the Chargers do not get caught looking ahead to TKG next week they should run away with this one. Chargers win 38-13.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Tigers take the show to the Rose City having started 5-0. TCCH has picked right where they left off with the state championship last season and have only cemented their favorite status thus far. The Crusaders return home after winning blow out road games against Redwater and Reicher in their last two outings. A one point loss to Tenaha is the only blemish on either record entering district play. The Tigers offense overwhelmed Houston St. Thomas last time we saw them, posting 66 point before the bye week. The season opening win over Bishop Lynch still looks a great win, but blowing out All Saints seems very common this season. This looks to be TKG's best defense in several seasons, but last year's team looked that way too. When the Crusaders reached the tough district games, it fell apart. I think TKG should hold TCCH under last season's output of 75 when they met head-to-head, but the Tigers will be too much. TCCH wins 42-21.
Tyler Grace Community @ McKinney Christian -- The Cougars head to new district mate McKinney Christian at a 3-2 mark. The best defensive performance for Grace thus far is holding Wills Point to 34. Given those numbers its a testament to their offense that they've won more than they've lost. The Mustangs are off to a 2-2 start with just 1 home game thus far thanks to the weather. After a shutout win over Reicher showed some spark, being blown out by Plano JP2 does not bode well for the district slate. The Cougars offense has a stalwart unit, scoring 42+ in every game except for the trip to Parish Episcopal. The non-district slate has put DC, TKG, and of course TCCH as the top teams in the District 2. The winner here will have the first shots at ascending into that group, and Grace gets 2 of 3 at home if they can get past the Mustangs and Guard. I think the Grace offense will be too much for the Mustangs, but if they are not in usual 42 point form then the home team will be in it. Grace wins 48-28.
Trinity Christian - Addison @ Midland Christian -- Certainly no one had the Mustangs as a pushover in Division I this year, but I'm not sure many had them at 6-0 to start district play. MCS has not been dominant in any of their 6 wins, but they haven't played any pushovers either. Two wins over UIL 6A opposition and road wins at FWC and an always strong Monahans team. All Saints struggles probably has MCS pointing toward two big games with Liberty and Nolan and eyes on possibly a district title. The Trojans have long been the underdog that will beat you in the former District 1 of Division I and they appear to be that in this new District 1 too. They've only found the win column once in 6 outings and dropping last week's game to Plano JP2 has to be very concerning for the district slate ahead. TCA will not be a walkover, but this looks to be a tall task for the Trojans. The long trip and the staunch Mustang defense appear to be too much to overcome. Mustangs win 35-19.
Fort Worth Nolan @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Warriors and Vikings are both in position to benefit from All Saints struggles in the non-district and this district opener has large implications toward the district title given its 25% of these teams district records. The Vikings dropped their first game of the season last week to Bishop Lynch, but posted nice wins over Kinkaid and Celina earlier on. The Warriors did not get their chance at Celina due to the weather, but scored a quality rain-shortened shutout win over Brock before blowing out Hyde Park last week to complete a 2-3 non-district slate. The Warriors allowed at least 37 in each of 3 losses and just 10 points combined in their 2 wins. If the Vikings can put the ball in the endzone I can't see Liberty keeping pace. With early district favorite status on the line, I think Nolan scores an early road win. Vikings win 38-20.
Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Panthers had a down campaign last year, finishing just 5-7. They've returned with a vengeance this year, starting 5-0 and averaging over 48 points per game offensively and allowing just over 7. The Falcons took a tough road loss to Houston St. Pius X before a national audience, but only by 17-7. The teams were a bit offensively challenged, but plenty can be credited to both defenses. In their 3 losses the Falcons have struggled offensively and will have to be better to best the Panthers. If Dunne can get to 30 they should have a chance, as that will keep the Parish offense off the field. I think the Panthers are too good on this day. Parish wins 40-22.
Flower Mound Coram Deo @ Lubbock Christian -- The Lions have started 5-0 allowing just 12 points in the last 4 weeks. The Eagles are off to a 3-2 start but comparing their non-district results is always tough given the geography. Losses to Sundown and Tulia space between three wins where the Eagles scored 51, 52, and 56. The Eagles certainly have the historical success edge, but winning last year really doesn't get you any wins this year. The Lions have to hold the Eagles under 30 to win I think, especially considering the bus ride to Lubbock. I can't see enough stops to pull this one off though. Eagles win 38-25.
Quick Hits: (Season: 38-19)
Grapevine Faith Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Central Catholic
San Antonio Holy Cross over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Austin Hyde Park over San Antonio Christian
Houston Lutheran South over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
The Woodlands Christian over Houston Lutheran North
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Midland Trinity Christian
Austin Brentwood Christian over Shiner St. Paul
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Week 6 Picks 2018
Maybe a little lighter schedule this week, but still plenty of games to take note of. No Eagles making the top section this week, but somehow three different Panthers.
This Week: (Season: 34-5)
Austin Regents @ San Antonio Holy Cross -- The Knights returned to the win column by dominating Wimberly last week. Regents has been a force in Division II for multiple seasons now and this one will tell us plenty about what this season holds. The Holy Cross Knights (I guess I need to specify) scored a big rivalry win over Central Catholic but dropped games to Hyde Park and Boerne on either side of it. They've gone on to best Antonian and St. Michael's in back-to-back weeks. Central Catholic then beat Regents. So on common opponents you would have to take Holy Cross. Regents has taken five in a row from Holy Cross in the last three seasons, including two playoff wins. There is much to like in both squads to this point, and despite their inconsistency I think I have to go with the home team. Holy Cross wins 35-28.
Austin Hyde Park @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- Division II Hyde Park visits Argyle in a Thursday night tilt. The Division I Warriors scored a big win in dominating Brock in a rain shortened game, but then followed it with a blasting at the hands of Prestonwood and then a handy China Spring win to push Liberty to 1-3. The Panthers have been a perennial playoff program in recent years, but have appeared to be a step behind the main South contenders in Regents and Holy Cross. This season though the Panthers defeated Holy Cross in the opener and have parlayed that to a 3-1 start. The lone loss came to a good Rockdale team in which Hyde Park still scored 36. This is a tricky one to call. The best Warriors defense, as featured against Brock, would likely win this one. The unit that saw 86 points against the last two weeks would seem to have a tough time getting past the Panthers. I'll take the Warriors at home, but no easy win here for sure. Liberty wins 30-26.
Fort Worth Nolan @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Vikings were less talked about as a state title contender entering the year. Lynch, Dunne, All Saints, St. Pius and maybe even Midland Christian would have been predicted as ahead of Nolan on paper this season. The I-30 Catholic title game though finds Nolan as the undefeated team at 5-0 entering the game. The Friars have started just 2-2 with a season opening loss to Division II champion TCCH, and loss in Shreveport to a Louisiana school. Lynch has followed with 2 wins though to even their record and scored 98 points between the two games. Contrast this with the 37 combined in the two losses. The Vikings have scored a couple of less impressive victories over FW Eastern Hills and Dallas Lincoln, but did take care of business in dominating fashion. Wins over Houston Kinkaid and Celina showcase plenty to think Nolan is a contender in Division I, particularly with All Saints struggles to start the year. In the Twitter picks I went against the rest by taking Lynch, and so I must consolidate that pick here. This should be close, but at Roffino Stadium I think the Lynch defense does enough. Friars win 28-22.
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Houston St. Pius X -- The Panthers dropped another close one to Prestonwood last week after a one point loss in the state final last year. The offense put up by St. Pius this season is plenty to make them a contender. The Panthers low output of the season is 42, and based on the score I bet they could have scored more. Scoring 48 at Prestonwood means Dunne will have their hands full on defense. The Falcons dropped a 7 point decision in the semifinals against St. Pius last year, but won a 3 point decision in 2016. A 3-2 start this season leaves some questions for Dunne, but with losses to only Desoto and an out of state opponent it doesn't leave too many questions. Several were answered with last weeks destruction of All Saints, 52-7. The Panthers will need to be great on offense to beat the Panthers on the road. I can't see Dunne having quite enough to get this away win. St. Pius wins 49-38.
Fort Worth Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The homestanding Panthers dominated Division II Tyler Grace last month and this will give the Cardinals a nice measuring stick heading to district play. Parish's 4-0 start has seen at least 48 points on the board in each game. Only the weather has slowed the Panther offense. The Cardinals have started 3-2, and lost a tight one to Midland Christian last week. A road loss to TKG suggests FWC may have a tall test with the Panther offense. History and recent results would suggest that allowing 54 points to TKG will lead to at least that many for Parish. I think the Cardinals offer more resistance that Tyler Grace did, but not enough to get over the hump. Panthers win 48-24.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Waco Reicher -- Its been a notable 3-1 start for the Crusaders, who travel to Waco after taking their bye week. Perhaps the defense may finally be on par with the offense as TKG held Redwater to just 8 after the same group scored 54 at Tyler Grace. Besting FWC certainly positions the Crusaders as one of the teams in the tier chasing Division II champion TCCH. The Cougars managed to lose twice in two days to Bosqueville based on MaxPreps, but it seems pretty likely their start is really just 2-3 and not 2-4. The Cougars two wins have come by just 3 points combined and Grace Prep scoring 35 last week does not bode well for slowing the Crusaders. Its been a struggle for Reicher so far on defense with the opposition scoring at least 33 every week. TKG should be too much on offense even on the road. Crusaders win 44-19.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- This game looked to be a huge indicator of things to come when the season started. Two contenders, if not favorites, in Districts 1 and 2 matching up right before district play. However, the season hasn't played out that way. The Lions are all of the contender they've been, and appear to have a stronger defensive unit this year to go with the always potent offense. Even allowing 48 points to St. Pius doesn't take the shine of a strong squad. The Saints have struggled out of the gates to just a 1-3 start. Falling to each of Regents, TCCH, and Dunne. They'll be excited to be back home after two road games (both on grass interestingly). The Lions though appear to be too much. Prestonwood wins 48-23.
Quick Hits: (Season: 31-16)
Carrollton Prince of Peace over Beaumont Legacy Christian
Trinity Christian - Addison over Plano John Paul II
Midland Christian over San Antonio Cornerstone
Houston Kinkaid over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Houston St. Thomas over China Spring
Cameron Yoe over Katy St. John XXIII
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin St. Dominic Savio
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Arlington Pantego Christian
Yorktown over Victoria St. Joseph
Boerne Geneva over Shiner St. Paul
This Week: (Season: 34-5)
Austin Regents @ San Antonio Holy Cross -- The Knights returned to the win column by dominating Wimberly last week. Regents has been a force in Division II for multiple seasons now and this one will tell us plenty about what this season holds. The Holy Cross Knights (I guess I need to specify) scored a big rivalry win over Central Catholic but dropped games to Hyde Park and Boerne on either side of it. They've gone on to best Antonian and St. Michael's in back-to-back weeks. Central Catholic then beat Regents. So on common opponents you would have to take Holy Cross. Regents has taken five in a row from Holy Cross in the last three seasons, including two playoff wins. There is much to like in both squads to this point, and despite their inconsistency I think I have to go with the home team. Holy Cross wins 35-28.
Austin Hyde Park @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- Division II Hyde Park visits Argyle in a Thursday night tilt. The Division I Warriors scored a big win in dominating Brock in a rain shortened game, but then followed it with a blasting at the hands of Prestonwood and then a handy China Spring win to push Liberty to 1-3. The Panthers have been a perennial playoff program in recent years, but have appeared to be a step behind the main South contenders in Regents and Holy Cross. This season though the Panthers defeated Holy Cross in the opener and have parlayed that to a 3-1 start. The lone loss came to a good Rockdale team in which Hyde Park still scored 36. This is a tricky one to call. The best Warriors defense, as featured against Brock, would likely win this one. The unit that saw 86 points against the last two weeks would seem to have a tough time getting past the Panthers. I'll take the Warriors at home, but no easy win here for sure. Liberty wins 30-26.
Fort Worth Nolan @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Vikings were less talked about as a state title contender entering the year. Lynch, Dunne, All Saints, St. Pius and maybe even Midland Christian would have been predicted as ahead of Nolan on paper this season. The I-30 Catholic title game though finds Nolan as the undefeated team at 5-0 entering the game. The Friars have started just 2-2 with a season opening loss to Division II champion TCCH, and loss in Shreveport to a Louisiana school. Lynch has followed with 2 wins though to even their record and scored 98 points between the two games. Contrast this with the 37 combined in the two losses. The Vikings have scored a couple of less impressive victories over FW Eastern Hills and Dallas Lincoln, but did take care of business in dominating fashion. Wins over Houston Kinkaid and Celina showcase plenty to think Nolan is a contender in Division I, particularly with All Saints struggles to start the year. In the Twitter picks I went against the rest by taking Lynch, and so I must consolidate that pick here. This should be close, but at Roffino Stadium I think the Lynch defense does enough. Friars win 28-22.
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Houston St. Pius X -- The Panthers dropped another close one to Prestonwood last week after a one point loss in the state final last year. The offense put up by St. Pius this season is plenty to make them a contender. The Panthers low output of the season is 42, and based on the score I bet they could have scored more. Scoring 48 at Prestonwood means Dunne will have their hands full on defense. The Falcons dropped a 7 point decision in the semifinals against St. Pius last year, but won a 3 point decision in 2016. A 3-2 start this season leaves some questions for Dunne, but with losses to only Desoto and an out of state opponent it doesn't leave too many questions. Several were answered with last weeks destruction of All Saints, 52-7. The Panthers will need to be great on offense to beat the Panthers on the road. I can't see Dunne having quite enough to get this away win. St. Pius wins 49-38.
Fort Worth Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The homestanding Panthers dominated Division II Tyler Grace last month and this will give the Cardinals a nice measuring stick heading to district play. Parish's 4-0 start has seen at least 48 points on the board in each game. Only the weather has slowed the Panther offense. The Cardinals have started 3-2, and lost a tight one to Midland Christian last week. A road loss to TKG suggests FWC may have a tall test with the Panther offense. History and recent results would suggest that allowing 54 points to TKG will lead to at least that many for Parish. I think the Cardinals offer more resistance that Tyler Grace did, but not enough to get over the hump. Panthers win 48-24.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Waco Reicher -- Its been a notable 3-1 start for the Crusaders, who travel to Waco after taking their bye week. Perhaps the defense may finally be on par with the offense as TKG held Redwater to just 8 after the same group scored 54 at Tyler Grace. Besting FWC certainly positions the Crusaders as one of the teams in the tier chasing Division II champion TCCH. The Cougars managed to lose twice in two days to Bosqueville based on MaxPreps, but it seems pretty likely their start is really just 2-3 and not 2-4. The Cougars two wins have come by just 3 points combined and Grace Prep scoring 35 last week does not bode well for slowing the Crusaders. Its been a struggle for Reicher so far on defense with the opposition scoring at least 33 every week. TKG should be too much on offense even on the road. Crusaders win 44-19.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- This game looked to be a huge indicator of things to come when the season started. Two contenders, if not favorites, in Districts 1 and 2 matching up right before district play. However, the season hasn't played out that way. The Lions are all of the contender they've been, and appear to have a stronger defensive unit this year to go with the always potent offense. Even allowing 48 points to St. Pius doesn't take the shine of a strong squad. The Saints have struggled out of the gates to just a 1-3 start. Falling to each of Regents, TCCH, and Dunne. They'll be excited to be back home after two road games (both on grass interestingly). The Lions though appear to be too much. Prestonwood wins 48-23.
Quick Hits: (Season: 31-16)
Carrollton Prince of Peace over Beaumont Legacy Christian
Trinity Christian - Addison over Plano John Paul II
Midland Christian over San Antonio Cornerstone
Houston Kinkaid over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Houston St. Thomas over China Spring
Cameron Yoe over Katy St. John XXIII
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin St. Dominic Savio
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Arlington Pantego Christian
Yorktown over Victoria St. Joseph
Boerne Geneva over Shiner St. Paul
Tuesday, September 25, 2018
Week 5 Picks 2018
Maybe this week it won't rain? Maybe? Nah probably not. Everyone stay safe and stay dry as we inch closer to district play.
This Week: (Season: 28-3)
Dallas Christian @ Kemp -- The Chargers held a 10 point lead when the storms reached Mesquite and finalized a 20-10 victory over TCA. Its been a nice 4-0 start for DC but not without concerns. Lulls in the offense will need to sorted out as district play looms on the horizon. The Yellowjackets enter off their second close win in as many weeks, reaching 2-1 with a 35-27 victory over Commerce. The Kemp defense has been consistently mediocre to this point in the season allowing 35, 28, and 27 in three outings. A stronger performance will likely be needed to best the Chargers. A year ago the Yellowjackets made it all the way to the state semifinals before falling to Brock. Particularly on the road, this is a challenging test for the Chargers. The tools are there to get a victory. Minimize turnovers and play sound defense for the 5th week in a row. Chargers win 35-28.
Center @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars responded from being blown out by Parish with a strong 42-14 win at Wills Point. The Roughriders reached the playoffs last year despite winning just 3 games, and have opened this season just 1-3. Center has seen 30 or more points posted against them in each of their four games thus far. The Cougars offense should be excited for the opprutunity having scored 42, 63, and 75 in Grace's three wins. The Cougars defense will be looking to improve seeing Redwater score just 8 against TKG after scoring 54 against the Cougars. The Grace defense will need to be on its 'A' game to make noise in district play, but likely doesn't need its best to win this week. Cougars win 48-20.
Houston St. Thomas @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers have opened with 4 wins against varied opposition. Bishop Lynch and FW All Saints among the private schools and a nice looking win over Melissa on the public school side last week. The Tigers bested the Eagles by a single point a year ago and have opened this season just 1-3 despite averaging over 45 points per game. 58 and 63 were not enough to get St. Thomas a win over Needville and Kinkaid respectively. The Eagles are going to have a difficult time containing the Tigers offense based on their results to this point. Trinity has done nothing since winning last year's title to move them off of favored status. Tigers put up a bunch and win 58-28.
Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Mustangs have enjoyed one of their better starts to a season despite coming in as more of an unknown than recent seasons. In contrast to St. Thomas, MCS has reached 4-0 despite averaging just 26 points per game and only reaching a season high of 35. You have to wonder a little if the road miles might start to wear on the Mustangs who do not get their bye week until Week 10, but the reality of West Texas is that they are pretty much used to this. The Cardinals are a familiar foe for MCS with FWC taking each of the last 2 meetings in district play including a 42-7 drubbing in the Tall City last year. FWC appears to have a good team, but a loss at TKG makes me think they may be behind the Mustangs this year. This is a tricky choice and I hesitate to pick road teams in games I think will be close, but I think the MCS defense is good enough to win here. Mustangs win 30-27.
Grapevine Faith Christian vs. Canadian @ Vernon -- The Lions find themselves with an interesting non-district neutral site Saturday game. The Wildcats are a strong UIL 3A side with multiple state titles in the last decade. Canadian is off to a 4-0 allowing just 35 points total across the four games. Canadian's last regular season loss came in Week 3 of 2016, so this will be a challenge for the Lions. The Lions have also started the season 4-0 and have allowed just 34 points in four games. The offense has been a bit slower but ran off 51 last week against Lincoln. This is a long ride from Grapevine to the barren lands of West Texas, and I think its too much for them. Canadian wins 28-21.
Houston St. Pius X @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Panthers and Lions rematch last season's Division I title game, won by Prestonwood 42-41. Both squads have started strong this season, running to 4-0 starts. The Panthers have posted 42 or more in every game so far, but perhaps showed some weakness allowing 34 to Manor last week. The Lions have allowed just 6, 7, 10, and 20 in four outings thus far, and the a chunk of the 20 was last week after the game was clearly decided. The game would appear to hinge on the Lions defense against the Panthers offense. Prestonwood should score, but will there defense prove to be as strong as it appears through 4 weeks? I like the Lions at home and to limit St. Pius to fewer than the 41 posted in last year's final. Prestonwood wins 40-28.
Wimberly @ Austin Regents -- The Knights run of regular season dominance came to an end at the hand of the Central Catholic Buttons last week. This week the Texans of Wimberly visit the rustic campus on Foster Ranch Road. The Texans have struggled in the early going, dropping their last 3 contests allowing at least 33 points in each of them. The Knights must score to be able to not only win this one but make a strong run in the Division II playoffs. The team that dominated Cypress Christian and bested FW All Saints on the road should have the tools to win this one. A road trip would make this one more concerning for the Knights, but among the trees of Southwest Austin this is a game Regents should win. However, we see every week that you never know what happens on Friday night (this year, probably a thunderstorm). Knights win 42-19.
Fort Worth All Saints @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Saints have had a difficult opening to the season. Dropping back to back games to Regents and TCCH. Now those are not bad losses by any stretch, but when district mates Midland and Liberty are posting victories over notable public schools Brock and Wall it makes you wonder where the Saints fit in the picture. The Falcons routed San Antonio Cornerstone 48-0 last week after dropping two close one with Shreveport Byrd and Desoto. Just a the 19-7 Desoto loss would seem to place Dunne ahead of All Saints on paper. A matchup with St. Pius will provide a nice measuring stick with Prestonwood, but the Falcons best not look ahead. The Saints need to find more than the 20 points they've scored the last 2 games on offense. If they do they will give the Falcons a stiff test. If they do not Dunne will slide away I believe. Falcons win 38-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 27-10)
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Carrollton Prince of Peace
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Albany over Bullard Brook Hill
Fort Worth Country Day over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Trinity Christian - Addison
Argyle Liberty Christian over China Spring
San Antonio Holy Cross over Austin St. Michael's
Houston Christian over Houston Westbury Christian
Waco Reicher over Arlington Grace Prep
Shiner St. Paul over Weimar
This Week: (Season: 28-3)
Dallas Christian @ Kemp -- The Chargers held a 10 point lead when the storms reached Mesquite and finalized a 20-10 victory over TCA. Its been a nice 4-0 start for DC but not without concerns. Lulls in the offense will need to sorted out as district play looms on the horizon. The Yellowjackets enter off their second close win in as many weeks, reaching 2-1 with a 35-27 victory over Commerce. The Kemp defense has been consistently mediocre to this point in the season allowing 35, 28, and 27 in three outings. A stronger performance will likely be needed to best the Chargers. A year ago the Yellowjackets made it all the way to the state semifinals before falling to Brock. Particularly on the road, this is a challenging test for the Chargers. The tools are there to get a victory. Minimize turnovers and play sound defense for the 5th week in a row. Chargers win 35-28.
Center @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars responded from being blown out by Parish with a strong 42-14 win at Wills Point. The Roughriders reached the playoffs last year despite winning just 3 games, and have opened this season just 1-3. Center has seen 30 or more points posted against them in each of their four games thus far. The Cougars offense should be excited for the opprutunity having scored 42, 63, and 75 in Grace's three wins. The Cougars defense will be looking to improve seeing Redwater score just 8 against TKG after scoring 54 against the Cougars. The Grace defense will need to be on its 'A' game to make noise in district play, but likely doesn't need its best to win this week. Cougars win 48-20.
Houston St. Thomas @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers have opened with 4 wins against varied opposition. Bishop Lynch and FW All Saints among the private schools and a nice looking win over Melissa on the public school side last week. The Tigers bested the Eagles by a single point a year ago and have opened this season just 1-3 despite averaging over 45 points per game. 58 and 63 were not enough to get St. Thomas a win over Needville and Kinkaid respectively. The Eagles are going to have a difficult time containing the Tigers offense based on their results to this point. Trinity has done nothing since winning last year's title to move them off of favored status. Tigers put up a bunch and win 58-28.
Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Mustangs have enjoyed one of their better starts to a season despite coming in as more of an unknown than recent seasons. In contrast to St. Thomas, MCS has reached 4-0 despite averaging just 26 points per game and only reaching a season high of 35. You have to wonder a little if the road miles might start to wear on the Mustangs who do not get their bye week until Week 10, but the reality of West Texas is that they are pretty much used to this. The Cardinals are a familiar foe for MCS with FWC taking each of the last 2 meetings in district play including a 42-7 drubbing in the Tall City last year. FWC appears to have a good team, but a loss at TKG makes me think they may be behind the Mustangs this year. This is a tricky choice and I hesitate to pick road teams in games I think will be close, but I think the MCS defense is good enough to win here. Mustangs win 30-27.
Grapevine Faith Christian vs. Canadian @ Vernon -- The Lions find themselves with an interesting non-district neutral site Saturday game. The Wildcats are a strong UIL 3A side with multiple state titles in the last decade. Canadian is off to a 4-0 allowing just 35 points total across the four games. Canadian's last regular season loss came in Week 3 of 2016, so this will be a challenge for the Lions. The Lions have also started the season 4-0 and have allowed just 34 points in four games. The offense has been a bit slower but ran off 51 last week against Lincoln. This is a long ride from Grapevine to the barren lands of West Texas, and I think its too much for them. Canadian wins 28-21.
Houston St. Pius X @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Panthers and Lions rematch last season's Division I title game, won by Prestonwood 42-41. Both squads have started strong this season, running to 4-0 starts. The Panthers have posted 42 or more in every game so far, but perhaps showed some weakness allowing 34 to Manor last week. The Lions have allowed just 6, 7, 10, and 20 in four outings thus far, and the a chunk of the 20 was last week after the game was clearly decided. The game would appear to hinge on the Lions defense against the Panthers offense. Prestonwood should score, but will there defense prove to be as strong as it appears through 4 weeks? I like the Lions at home and to limit St. Pius to fewer than the 41 posted in last year's final. Prestonwood wins 40-28.
Wimberly @ Austin Regents -- The Knights run of regular season dominance came to an end at the hand of the Central Catholic Buttons last week. This week the Texans of Wimberly visit the rustic campus on Foster Ranch Road. The Texans have struggled in the early going, dropping their last 3 contests allowing at least 33 points in each of them. The Knights must score to be able to not only win this one but make a strong run in the Division II playoffs. The team that dominated Cypress Christian and bested FW All Saints on the road should have the tools to win this one. A road trip would make this one more concerning for the Knights, but among the trees of Southwest Austin this is a game Regents should win. However, we see every week that you never know what happens on Friday night (this year, probably a thunderstorm). Knights win 42-19.
Fort Worth All Saints @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Saints have had a difficult opening to the season. Dropping back to back games to Regents and TCCH. Now those are not bad losses by any stretch, but when district mates Midland and Liberty are posting victories over notable public schools Brock and Wall it makes you wonder where the Saints fit in the picture. The Falcons routed San Antonio Cornerstone 48-0 last week after dropping two close one with Shreveport Byrd and Desoto. Just a the 19-7 Desoto loss would seem to place Dunne ahead of All Saints on paper. A matchup with St. Pius will provide a nice measuring stick with Prestonwood, but the Falcons best not look ahead. The Saints need to find more than the 20 points they've scored the last 2 games on offense. If they do they will give the Falcons a stiff test. If they do not Dunne will slide away I believe. Falcons win 38-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 27-10)
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Carrollton Prince of Peace
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Albany over Bullard Brook Hill
Fort Worth Country Day over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Trinity Christian - Addison
Argyle Liberty Christian over China Spring
San Antonio Holy Cross over Austin St. Michael's
Houston Christian over Houston Westbury Christian
Waco Reicher over Arlington Grace Prep
Shiner St. Paul over Weimar
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Week 4 Picks 2018
The goal for this week is no weather delays. So all rain and storms are requested to hold until at least 11 PM local time on Friday night. Thank you for your consideration.
This Week: (Season: 21-3)
Trinity Christian - Addison @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers and Trojans rematch the 1987 state championship game, a 19-14 DC win. This will certainly have no effect on the outcome of this one but fun to know. The Chargers have scored in spurts so far this year and that's led to some handy victories but its also been followed by some lulls in play. DC still looking for that complete game of play to go with the 21 or 28 point quarter. The Trojans have started a sluggish 1-2 through 3 week, beating ESD but falling to China Spring and Prestonwood. Now that is certainly not a group of opponents that would be considered weak but you'd like to score more than 10 when you hold China Spring to 13. The Trojans offense will have to manage more than 10 to go by the Chargers here, and think probably needs at least the 28 they allowed to ESD. The Chargers should be in a similar spot. If they can get the 33 they've reached in each game so far they should have enough to win, but leaving it to the defense that has been mostly untested to this point would seem unwise. Chargers win at home 34-24.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Melissa -- The Tigers posted another strong victory a week ago, besting All Saints 44-20 and extending their win streak to 12. The Cardinals also enter at 3-0 including a victory of Liberty Christian in Week 1. Melissa should offer a decent resistance to the Tigers. Its a surprisingly long trip between the two schools with at least an hour drive awaiting the Tigers and likely more on a Friday evening. Its no West Texas travel but a decent haul none the less. The Cardinals have scored 42, 63, and 27 in their 3 outings. To keep pace with TCCH they are going to need something more than the 27. The Tigers appear to be too much on offense, but this one shouldn't be a laugher. TCCH wins on the road 35-25.
Tyler Grace @ Wills Point -- The Cougars explosive offense of the first two weeks vanished quickly on the blue turf at Parish as they were routed on a stormy night in Dallas. Returning the 50+ point form of the opener is going to be needed on the road here. The Tigers are off to a 1-1 start after losing the 1st round of the playoffs last season. The 42 points scored by Mineola in Week 1 against Wills Point bodes well for Grace, but the mere 7 scored by Mabank does not. Which team is Grace closer too? The team that scored 75 against Redwater or the one that scored 7 against Parish? I think the Grace offense returns to form. Cougars win 40-23.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Redwater -- The Crusaders travel to Redwater giving us a common opponent with Grace for comparing down the road. The Dragons option attack put up plenty of yards and points in a Week 2 defeat at Grace posting 54 but still losing by 3 touchdowns. TKG has not been known for its defense in recent years and leaves the proximity of Loop 323 for the first time this season. The Crusaders lost by a point to Tenaha last week following a 12 point win over Fort Worth Christian. Look for their to be lots of points posted in this one. The Crusaders and Dragons both are strong on offense and suspect defensively. I'll take the Crusaders to squeak by 48-42.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Lions and Warriors find themselves in a non-district matchup for the first time. The Warriors dominated Brock defensively in a rain shortened win. Shortened or not holding Brock scoreless for 2.5 quarters is a good defensive outing. Liberty was in a similar mode entering the clash with Prestonwood last year. The defense looks great, the offense was a bit suspect last year and this year is more of an unknown with just 2 games under their belts. The Lions offense has been a force for a decade or more in Division I including 42 or more points in 4 playoff games last year on the way to a state championship. The Warriors held them to just 14 last season but scored 0 of their own. If Liberty can reach 30 they should have a chance to win, but they probably need all of those points to win. I just can't see the Warriors scoring enough to win this one. Lions win 34-14.
Midland Christian @ Monahans -- The Mustangs reached 3-0 by hanging on for a 1 point win against Wall last week and now renew an old acquaintance in the Loboes. Monahans won 9 games and reached round 2 last season and have opened 2-1 this year including a 21 point win at Big Spring last week. The Wall victory suggests this should be a promising season for the Mustangs, but there are plenty of unknowns to this point. Nolan looks better than expected, All Saints looks a little worse than expected, Liberty's defense looks excellent, it will be quite the district schedule ahead. This game is also a mystery. I'll take MCS to stay undefeated, but it should be close. Mustangs win 35-28.
Falls City @ Boerne Geneva -- The Eagles get to the wildcard in this week's picks becuase the opponent is the Beavers. The Beavers reached round 4 last year and have opened this season 3-0. The Geneva Eagles reached round 3 before being ousted by Cypress Christian. Its been a less than stellar start at 1-2 for the Eagles but losses to 2nd Baptist and Cornerstone are no shame by any means. Its going to take the Eagles best game to best the Beavers and avoid 1-3, and even then it may not be enough to win this week. Beavers just too much for Geneva in my opinion. Falls City wins 42-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 20-9)
Brook Hill over Willow Park Trinity Christian
McKinney Christian over Colleyville Covenant
Grapevine Faith Christian over Dallas Lincoln
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Maypearl
Fort Worth Nolan over Fort Worth Eastern Hills
Bishop Lynch over Fort Worth O.D. Wyatt
Austin Regents over San Antonio Central Catholic
Austin Brentwood Christian over San Antonio TMI
Houston Cypress Christian over Shiner St. Paul
This Week: (Season: 21-3)
Trinity Christian - Addison @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers and Trojans rematch the 1987 state championship game, a 19-14 DC win. This will certainly have no effect on the outcome of this one but fun to know. The Chargers have scored in spurts so far this year and that's led to some handy victories but its also been followed by some lulls in play. DC still looking for that complete game of play to go with the 21 or 28 point quarter. The Trojans have started a sluggish 1-2 through 3 week, beating ESD but falling to China Spring and Prestonwood. Now that is certainly not a group of opponents that would be considered weak but you'd like to score more than 10 when you hold China Spring to 13. The Trojans offense will have to manage more than 10 to go by the Chargers here, and think probably needs at least the 28 they allowed to ESD. The Chargers should be in a similar spot. If they can get the 33 they've reached in each game so far they should have enough to win, but leaving it to the defense that has been mostly untested to this point would seem unwise. Chargers win at home 34-24.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Melissa -- The Tigers posted another strong victory a week ago, besting All Saints 44-20 and extending their win streak to 12. The Cardinals also enter at 3-0 including a victory of Liberty Christian in Week 1. Melissa should offer a decent resistance to the Tigers. Its a surprisingly long trip between the two schools with at least an hour drive awaiting the Tigers and likely more on a Friday evening. Its no West Texas travel but a decent haul none the less. The Cardinals have scored 42, 63, and 27 in their 3 outings. To keep pace with TCCH they are going to need something more than the 27. The Tigers appear to be too much on offense, but this one shouldn't be a laugher. TCCH wins on the road 35-25.
Tyler Grace @ Wills Point -- The Cougars explosive offense of the first two weeks vanished quickly on the blue turf at Parish as they were routed on a stormy night in Dallas. Returning the 50+ point form of the opener is going to be needed on the road here. The Tigers are off to a 1-1 start after losing the 1st round of the playoffs last season. The 42 points scored by Mineola in Week 1 against Wills Point bodes well for Grace, but the mere 7 scored by Mabank does not. Which team is Grace closer too? The team that scored 75 against Redwater or the one that scored 7 against Parish? I think the Grace offense returns to form. Cougars win 40-23.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Redwater -- The Crusaders travel to Redwater giving us a common opponent with Grace for comparing down the road. The Dragons option attack put up plenty of yards and points in a Week 2 defeat at Grace posting 54 but still losing by 3 touchdowns. TKG has not been known for its defense in recent years and leaves the proximity of Loop 323 for the first time this season. The Crusaders lost by a point to Tenaha last week following a 12 point win over Fort Worth Christian. Look for their to be lots of points posted in this one. The Crusaders and Dragons both are strong on offense and suspect defensively. I'll take the Crusaders to squeak by 48-42.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Lions and Warriors find themselves in a non-district matchup for the first time. The Warriors dominated Brock defensively in a rain shortened win. Shortened or not holding Brock scoreless for 2.5 quarters is a good defensive outing. Liberty was in a similar mode entering the clash with Prestonwood last year. The defense looks great, the offense was a bit suspect last year and this year is more of an unknown with just 2 games under their belts. The Lions offense has been a force for a decade or more in Division I including 42 or more points in 4 playoff games last year on the way to a state championship. The Warriors held them to just 14 last season but scored 0 of their own. If Liberty can reach 30 they should have a chance to win, but they probably need all of those points to win. I just can't see the Warriors scoring enough to win this one. Lions win 34-14.
Midland Christian @ Monahans -- The Mustangs reached 3-0 by hanging on for a 1 point win against Wall last week and now renew an old acquaintance in the Loboes. Monahans won 9 games and reached round 2 last season and have opened 2-1 this year including a 21 point win at Big Spring last week. The Wall victory suggests this should be a promising season for the Mustangs, but there are plenty of unknowns to this point. Nolan looks better than expected, All Saints looks a little worse than expected, Liberty's defense looks excellent, it will be quite the district schedule ahead. This game is also a mystery. I'll take MCS to stay undefeated, but it should be close. Mustangs win 35-28.
Falls City @ Boerne Geneva -- The Eagles get to the wildcard in this week's picks becuase the opponent is the Beavers. The Beavers reached round 4 last year and have opened this season 3-0. The Geneva Eagles reached round 3 before being ousted by Cypress Christian. Its been a less than stellar start at 1-2 for the Eagles but losses to 2nd Baptist and Cornerstone are no shame by any means. Its going to take the Eagles best game to best the Beavers and avoid 1-3, and even then it may not be enough to win this week. Beavers just too much for Geneva in my opinion. Falls City wins 42-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 20-9)
Brook Hill over Willow Park Trinity Christian
McKinney Christian over Colleyville Covenant
Grapevine Faith Christian over Dallas Lincoln
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Maypearl
Fort Worth Nolan over Fort Worth Eastern Hills
Bishop Lynch over Fort Worth O.D. Wyatt
Austin Regents over San Antonio Central Catholic
Austin Brentwood Christian over San Antonio TMI
Houston Cypress Christian over Shiner St. Paul
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Week 3 Picks 2018
A couple of interesting showdowns this week and as we try to figure how who is getting better and who is rebuilding. At some point there will be a big upset we don't see coming. Will it be this week?
This Week: (Season: 13-3)
Dallas Christian @ Plano John Paul II -- The Chargers dominated the first half last Thursday against Bryan Adams. The second half was more a malaise and then everyone enjoyed not being out in the storm on Friday. The Cardinals have long been the back marker of Division I, breaking a 30+ game losing streak last year and winning just 2 district games since their first varsity season in 2006. Last year though was a better year, but still led to just 2 wins. A 2-0 start stands as the best in program history for the Cardinals and winning at Brook Hill last week certainly gives notice that there will be no guarantees in facing John Paul this year. The Chargers malaise of the 2nd half last week will almost certainly get them beat, particularly on the road. The team that ran off 28 points in the 3rd quarter against Westbury would be favored in this one. I don't think the Cardinals have quite reached Chargers but the gap is narrowing. However, the author may not be totally objective. Chargers win 35-10.
Fort Worth All Saints @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Saints fell at home to the Regents regular season juggernaut. The Tigers dominated a Florida school on ESPNU after opening with a win over Bishop Lynch. In returning home the Tigers find an opponent that appears to be having a disappointing start. Going into the year I had All Saints as a definite contender for the title in Division I and losing to Regents certainly dosen't mean they can't be in the mix, but it certainly wasn't what I saw coming. The Saints were 11-0 last year before Prestonwood turned the tables on them in Round 2. Trinity would seem to have the upper hand at home here especially having beated Regents in last year's title game. Its still early and there is much to be figured out among these teams, but I'll take the Tigers 35-20.
Tyler Grace Community @ Parish Episcopal -- The Cougars have run off 138 points in 2 weeks and Parish would appear to be the strongest test so far. The Panthers were rained out against ESD last week and haven't played a Division II opponent since the opener last season (a loss to Regents). If Grace runs off another 60 points I don't see where Parish finds that kind of firepower as they couldn't last year. The Panthers have never been a pushover after their first varsity season and certainly won't be this week. I really don't have a good feeling either way here. On one side, Parish should be a very good team but we just haven't seen it this year or last. On the other, Grace's offense looks strong but the quality of the defenses the points were scored on is unknown. I barely know where Redwater is let alone how good their defense is. Give me Parish at home 30-27.
Tenaha @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Crusaders have opened with a 2-0 start again and while not scoring as many as Grace have been sterling on offense including putting 54 points up on Fort Worth Christian. The trouble for TKG is they've allowed 83 points in 2 games. The Tigers dropped their opener to Troup despite scoring 39 points but responded with a 14-2 (yes 2) win over Lovelady in their 2nd outing. For long term success this season the Crusaders defense will have to improve especially with three road games to follow. The Tigers fell in the 2A D2 state final last year and should a difficult task for TKG. However, the results through two weeks suggest the Tigers may not out class the Crusaders as much as they would have a year ago. The Crusaders offense is good, but I don't think they're defense will have enough this week. Tenaha wins 42-37.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Huntington -- The Guard travel to take on a struggling program in Huntington. The Red Devils won just a single game a year ago, but have already matched that win total this year. Brook Hill dropped last week's home contest against Plano John Paul, allowing 48 points in the process. The game also included a tweet from a reporting indicating the referees signaled a PAT good just before half and then called the press box at half to correct it to no good. Sounds exciting. The Red Devils were beaten soundly 55-0 last week and the Guard should be able to get things back on track this week. Brook Hill wins 40-14.
Wall @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs take on a Hawks team that bested them 40-21 and reached the 3rd round of the playoffs. Interestingly, Wall lost that playoff game to Brock who MCS defeated in the regular season. The Hawks have played just once so far this year losing 27-21 to the Mason Punchers (I had to work in Punchers). MCS has defeated two good El Paso schools despite scoring just 42 points between the two games. If the Mustangs find their offensive stride they should be quite dangerous heading to November, but they will need that offense in this game and going forward. I don't think that 20 points is going to be enough to win this one or many once we reach district play. This should be a good West Texas battle, and I think the Mustangs win at home. MCS 30-25.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Trinity Christian - Addison -- The Lions and Trojans line up as opponents for the first time in a non-district matchup. The Trojans have started 1-1 after a 3 point win over ESD and a 3 point loss at China Spring. The Lions have opened 2-0 with wins over Wylie and Greater Atlanta Christian. The Lions offense has long been the calling card taking the state title last year while scoring 42 or more in all 4 playoff games. Prestonwood also produced some great defensive outings including a stretch of 11 straight games last year where the opposition scored 20 or less. One of those teams was TCA who was held to just 7 and 15 in two meetings with the Lions last year. I can't see where the Trojans find enough offense to run down Prestonwood. Probably not a laugher, but Lions win handily. I'll say 42-14.
Fort Worth Trinity Valley @ Austin Regents -- The Knights secured a big win over All Saints last week storming (pun intended) to a 20-0 lead in Fort Worth. 34 straight regular season wins is the streak for Regents. Since 10-16-15 the Knights have lost just 3 games, one semifinal and two state championship games. The Trojans were dispatched easily by Grapevine Faith before putting Southwest Christian in their rear view. With a trip to Austin in the cards, I can't see how the team that defeated All Saints and the most recent Division III champion falters here. Knights run away and hide, 42-6.
Quick Hits: (Season: 14-4)
Grapevine Faith Christian over Caddo Mills (I really wanted to get the Foxes in but could not)
Fort Worth Christian over Valley View
McKinney Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Frisco Legacy Christian over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Dallas Shelton over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Colleyville Covenant over Dallas First Baptist Academy
Brock over Argyle Liberty Christian
Dallas Bishop Lynch over Frisco Centennial
Desoto over Dallas Bishop Dunne
Shiner St. Paul over Austin Saints
Celina over Fort Worth Nolan
This Week: (Season: 13-3)
Dallas Christian @ Plano John Paul II -- The Chargers dominated the first half last Thursday against Bryan Adams. The second half was more a malaise and then everyone enjoyed not being out in the storm on Friday. The Cardinals have long been the back marker of Division I, breaking a 30+ game losing streak last year and winning just 2 district games since their first varsity season in 2006. Last year though was a better year, but still led to just 2 wins. A 2-0 start stands as the best in program history for the Cardinals and winning at Brook Hill last week certainly gives notice that there will be no guarantees in facing John Paul this year. The Chargers malaise of the 2nd half last week will almost certainly get them beat, particularly on the road. The team that ran off 28 points in the 3rd quarter against Westbury would be favored in this one. I don't think the Cardinals have quite reached Chargers but the gap is narrowing. However, the author may not be totally objective. Chargers win 35-10.
Fort Worth All Saints @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Saints fell at home to the Regents regular season juggernaut. The Tigers dominated a Florida school on ESPNU after opening with a win over Bishop Lynch. In returning home the Tigers find an opponent that appears to be having a disappointing start. Going into the year I had All Saints as a definite contender for the title in Division I and losing to Regents certainly dosen't mean they can't be in the mix, but it certainly wasn't what I saw coming. The Saints were 11-0 last year before Prestonwood turned the tables on them in Round 2. Trinity would seem to have the upper hand at home here especially having beated Regents in last year's title game. Its still early and there is much to be figured out among these teams, but I'll take the Tigers 35-20.
Tyler Grace Community @ Parish Episcopal -- The Cougars have run off 138 points in 2 weeks and Parish would appear to be the strongest test so far. The Panthers were rained out against ESD last week and haven't played a Division II opponent since the opener last season (a loss to Regents). If Grace runs off another 60 points I don't see where Parish finds that kind of firepower as they couldn't last year. The Panthers have never been a pushover after their first varsity season and certainly won't be this week. I really don't have a good feeling either way here. On one side, Parish should be a very good team but we just haven't seen it this year or last. On the other, Grace's offense looks strong but the quality of the defenses the points were scored on is unknown. I barely know where Redwater is let alone how good their defense is. Give me Parish at home 30-27.
Tenaha @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- The Crusaders have opened with a 2-0 start again and while not scoring as many as Grace have been sterling on offense including putting 54 points up on Fort Worth Christian. The trouble for TKG is they've allowed 83 points in 2 games. The Tigers dropped their opener to Troup despite scoring 39 points but responded with a 14-2 (yes 2) win over Lovelady in their 2nd outing. For long term success this season the Crusaders defense will have to improve especially with three road games to follow. The Tigers fell in the 2A D2 state final last year and should a difficult task for TKG. However, the results through two weeks suggest the Tigers may not out class the Crusaders as much as they would have a year ago. The Crusaders offense is good, but I don't think they're defense will have enough this week. Tenaha wins 42-37.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Huntington -- The Guard travel to take on a struggling program in Huntington. The Red Devils won just a single game a year ago, but have already matched that win total this year. Brook Hill dropped last week's home contest against Plano John Paul, allowing 48 points in the process. The game also included a tweet from a reporting indicating the referees signaled a PAT good just before half and then called the press box at half to correct it to no good. Sounds exciting. The Red Devils were beaten soundly 55-0 last week and the Guard should be able to get things back on track this week. Brook Hill wins 40-14.
Wall @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs take on a Hawks team that bested them 40-21 and reached the 3rd round of the playoffs. Interestingly, Wall lost that playoff game to Brock who MCS defeated in the regular season. The Hawks have played just once so far this year losing 27-21 to the Mason Punchers (I had to work in Punchers). MCS has defeated two good El Paso schools despite scoring just 42 points between the two games. If the Mustangs find their offensive stride they should be quite dangerous heading to November, but they will need that offense in this game and going forward. I don't think that 20 points is going to be enough to win this one or many once we reach district play. This should be a good West Texas battle, and I think the Mustangs win at home. MCS 30-25.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Trinity Christian - Addison -- The Lions and Trojans line up as opponents for the first time in a non-district matchup. The Trojans have started 1-1 after a 3 point win over ESD and a 3 point loss at China Spring. The Lions have opened 2-0 with wins over Wylie and Greater Atlanta Christian. The Lions offense has long been the calling card taking the state title last year while scoring 42 or more in all 4 playoff games. Prestonwood also produced some great defensive outings including a stretch of 11 straight games last year where the opposition scored 20 or less. One of those teams was TCA who was held to just 7 and 15 in two meetings with the Lions last year. I can't see where the Trojans find enough offense to run down Prestonwood. Probably not a laugher, but Lions win handily. I'll say 42-14.
Fort Worth Trinity Valley @ Austin Regents -- The Knights secured a big win over All Saints last week storming (pun intended) to a 20-0 lead in Fort Worth. 34 straight regular season wins is the streak for Regents. Since 10-16-15 the Knights have lost just 3 games, one semifinal and two state championship games. The Trojans were dispatched easily by Grapevine Faith before putting Southwest Christian in their rear view. With a trip to Austin in the cards, I can't see how the team that defeated All Saints and the most recent Division III champion falters here. Knights run away and hide, 42-6.
Quick Hits: (Season: 14-4)
Grapevine Faith Christian over Caddo Mills (I really wanted to get the Foxes in but could not)
Fort Worth Christian over Valley View
McKinney Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Frisco Legacy Christian over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Dallas Shelton over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Colleyville Covenant over Dallas First Baptist Academy
Brock over Argyle Liberty Christian
Dallas Bishop Lynch over Frisco Centennial
Desoto over Dallas Bishop Dunne
Shiner St. Paul over Austin Saints
Celina over Fort Worth Nolan
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