The Chargers may have been eliminated, but that doesn't mean we stop trying to pick some winners. Just 12 games left in the private school 11-man season. With 16 teams left, there are 5 Eagles including at least 1 in each division. Will this be the year every division is won by the Eagles? I doubt it and I hope not.
This Week: (Season: 80-18)
Division I
Plano John Paul II vs. San Antonio Antonian @ Georgetown -- This may be the least likely semifinal I could have imagined when the year started. The Apaches entered 2019 having won 9 games in the last two seasons, they've now won 9 this year after defeating Prestonwood on a game ending Hail Mary. The Cardinals are the perennial losers in Division I, having never won a playoff game in program history until this year. Prior to Coach Teague's arrival John Paul had lost 32 in a row an had never won more than 3 games in a season. In his first year, they broke the steak but still won just 2. In year two, the Cardinals reached 4 wins for the first time. This year, they've exploded for a 7-3 regular season and 2 playoff wins. With 9 vicotries in 2019, John Paul II has as many wins this season as they did from 2012-2018 combined. Given these histories it should come as no surprise the school have never met in football. Now that we've done the history lets look at the teams. The 3 defeats for the Cardinals came to Dallas Christian by 11, Prestonwood by 12, and a blowout by Parish Episcopal. The Apaches took 3 losses in a row to Beeville Jones, Boerne, and Houston St. Thomas. The struggles of the schools south of I-20 in the Division I playoffs led to us pretty much counting out the District 3 runner-up. Of course, 3rd place in District 2 didn't really inspire confidence yet here we are. The Cardinals offense has been dynamic against inferior opponents and generally struggled against the best opposition. Then, they dominated Nolan last week in posting 49 points. They also snuck by Central Catholic, but similar margin that Antonian playd with them. The Apaches beat Prestonwood which JP2 could not do in the regular season. I really don't know about this one, mainly because I wouldn't have imagined them playing in the semifinals. Blind guess, the Cardinal run continues. John Paul II to the state final 33-30.
Dallas Parish Episcopal vs. Houston St. Thomas @ The Star -- In the other half of the bracket we get the teams we expected. The Panthers have been the best team in Division I all year, except for the loss to All Saints in Week 4. Given what has taken place since, I'm just considering that the aberration. While many teams have not played well off the 1st round bye, the Panthers likely benefited as they had played 10 games in 10 weeks leading up to that bye. Only the All Saints loss saw the Panthers fail to reach 30 points, and a 44-6 blowout of Midland Christian certainly announces to the field the Panthers readiness. The Eagles managed 9 wins after dropping their first 2. Some years it seems the big games with Strake Jesuit and St. Pius are all that interests in the Eagles. This year has been different with their first semifinal appearance since 2014. St. Thomas is another squad that snuck by Central Catholic. The Buttons lost to 3 of the 4 semifinalists by a combined 9 points. They may have been better than a 5-6 team. The weather will not be a factor in this one which I think only helps the Panthers. Parish beat TCCH in Week 2 to open their season while St. Thomas lost to the Tigers 50-0. The Eagles beat Bishop Lynch by 4 to reach Round 3, but the Panthers bested them by 40 earlier in the year. While it is a year of upsets in the Division I playoffs, Parish gets to its first Division I title game 42-21.
Division II
Grapevine Faith Christian vs. Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ TC-Addison -- The Lions slid by DC with 2 late touchdowns to turn a 17-14 deficit into a 28-17 win, and at 10-1 will certainly have their shot at the king. The Tigers are the back-to-back state champions and have been largely unchallenged this season after losing to Parish in Week 2 in OT. Dallas Christian closed to within 4 early in the 2nd half, but the Tigers galloped away in the later stages. At 24 points, it was the closest margin of victory for TCCH on the season. The Lions have only been beaten by UIL power Canadian. Admittedly the Tigers level of dominance is hard to match, but the Lions have not had the same margin in their wins. Just a 4 point win over FWC makes it hard to pick Faith here. A win over SPC champion Country Day is a nice one, and they did wind up with not too dissimilar score against DC. However, the champs are on top until someone can knock them off. Tigers try for 3 in a row after winning 42-21.
Regents School of Austin vs. Houston Second Baptist @ Waller -- The Eagles and Knights meet for a spot in the title game for the 2nd straight year. Regents took home a shutout win, 35-0, last year. The Eagles are the only undefeated team left Divisions I or II and have lit up the scoreboard all year. Only Victoria St. Joseph held Second Baptist under 38 points, and they did it twice. I suspect the Knights will be the best defense the Eagles have seen this year. The Knights have scored 29 or more in every game this year. There are a few common opponents. Regents bested Brentwood, Fort Bend, and Lutheran South by scores of 35-6, 45-14, and 34-13. Second Baptist won 43-29, 56-12, and 42-14. There isn't much there to go on there. The upset here will be if its a blowout. Neither side would surprise me as a winner. I think they'll hold each other relatively in check. I'll go low scoring, and with Regents to reach a 4th straight title game. Knights win 22-19.
Division III
Lubbock Christian vs. Colleyville Covenant Christian @ ACU -- The Eagles are 12-0 again and a prime contender for the Division III title and will break a streak of taking on the Lions three weeks in a row. The Cougars are a more surprising Round 3 participant. Reaching the semis after a 3-6 regular season. Both squads won road games at Lubbock Trinity. The Eagles were much more dominant early on, but have regained offensive prowess with 52 and 56 in their two playoff games. This shouldn't be the day Lubbock Christian is knocked off, but the Cougars did just reverse a regular season loss to Pantego. No turkeys left after thanksgiving, so it won't be easy. Eagles return to the state final, 31-21.
Boerne Geneva vs. The Woodlands Christian @ Bastrop -- The Eagles are back in the semis for a 3rd straight season. Willow Park Trinity bested them in the final last season. The Warriors are the other 12-0 team in Division III. Perhaps a battle of 13-0 squads for a title next Saturday? The Eagles had a ugly 1-4 start, but against good opponents. Now Geneva is a 7-0 run and have been excellent against Division III opposition this year. TWCA's low game of the season was 34 points. Geneva will not be an easy out, but this should be the Warriors year. I think the TWCA offense is too much, but the playoffs do strange things. Warriors reach their first state title game, 42-21.
Division IV
Muenster Sacred Heart vs. Hallettsville Sacred Heart @ Riesel -- The Sacred Heart showdown pits two teams on opposite ends of the playoff expectations. The Indians came into the playoffs at 4-5 before posting wins over First Baptist and Brazos Christian. The Tigers came off a 1st round bye at 10-0 and got by Legacy Prep 20-12. At one point illness led to cancelling a game with lack of players for the Indians. The Tigers have looked to be a top contender in Division IV all year. Only 3 of 11 opponents reached 20 against the Tigers. The Indians scored 20 or more just 6 times in 11 games, but have done so in their last 3. The Northern Sacred Heart's are a clear favorite, but the Southern variety did play the defending champion to a 7 point game. I feel like I've picked too many favorites this week, but I'll take another. Tigers reach another state final, 32-22.
Shiner St. Paul vs. Fort Worth Lake Country Christian @ Temple -- Last year's championship was both expected and unexpected for the Cardinals. On the one hand, they are always in the mix in Division IV, deserving to be complimented for making the most of their relatively small enrollment (almost certainly smaller than a 6-man champion this year). On the other hand, they finished the regular season at 2-8. Accomplishing the rare 6-8 state championship. It was a better year for the Cardinals, posting a 7-3 regular season and earning a 1st round bye. The three losses to much larger schools in Geneva, Victoria St. Joseph, and Weimar. Lake Country enters at 8-4 having just taken out the District 4 champion in Rosehill. Muenster Sacred Heart and Dallas Covenant account for two of the Eagles losses. Covenant was the Cardinals most recent playoff opponent. St. Paul scored 63 while Lake Country just 14. The Eagles have been playing well to reach this point, but St. Paul should have enough. The Cardinals reach yet another state final with a 35-20 win.
Historical Results:
2015: 94-16
2016: 79-25
2017: 78-32
2018: 88-22
Quick Hits finishes the year at 103-27. Amazingly consistent from year to year.
2015: 60-15
2016: 103-26
2017: 101-29
2018: 102-28
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Regional Playoff Picks 2019
Ready for another week of playoff football? The trophies are on the horizon, but who will reach Waco?
This Week: (Season: 76-16)
Division II
Grapevine Faith Christian School vs. Dallas Christian School @ Wildcat-Ram Stadium -- The Chargers and Lions meet in the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. In 2016, the Lions took a 2OT victory. In 2017, the Chargers dealt a shutout to advance to Round 2. Dallas Christian has enjoyed a largely dominant season, reaching 10 wins for the 7th time in 8 season. The Chargers held there first 6 opponents to 14 or less while 4 of the last 5 have scored at least 21. This has included the best of DC's opposition and the lone defeat at TCCH. The Lions fell just once on the season, in a neutral site game against UIL stalwart Canadian. The Lions have also posted strong defensive performances with just 4 opponents scoring more than 18. Both teams are strong at the quarterback position, and that seems to be the key in this game. Which QB will get the upper hand on the other's defense? I think this is a low slow scoring battle with a big surge late. In common opponents both teams saw Tyler Grace and FWC in the last two week. Each team played a similar game against Tyler Grace. Each established a sizable lead for a handy victory. A 45-27 win for DC is remarkably similar to a 48-28 win for Faith. The Chargers built a big lead over FWC before landing on a 46-21 victory. Faith edged FWC 27-23 for the district title. Not a ton of mystery in the punch line for this author. Chargers win 30-28.
Bullard Brook Hill School vs. Cedar Hill Trinity Christian School @ Athens -- The Guard and Tigers met just 2 weeks ago to close the regular season. Only two opponents scored more than 14 against TCCH this year. DC posted just 16 while Parish scored 33 in the Tigers lone defeat. The Guard have surged late in the season reaching 8-3 on the season. After securing two district wins and showing well in a 21-3 defeat to DC, Brook Hill was pounded 44-7 by the Tigers. The Tigers are the back-to-back state champions for a reason and I doubt the Guard can turn around 37 points in just 2 weeks. Maybe a bit of overconfidence could get in the way, but I doubt it. Tigers win handily, but a bit closer in Round 2. A nice road win in Round 1 for Brook Hill, TCCH to the semis 38-8.
Regents School of Austin vs. Houston Lutheran South Academy @ Hallettsville -- The Knights have reached the last 3 state championship games, losing all 3. Unfortunately, that means they are entering Buffalo Bills territory. The Pioneers have been a next level contender for several seasons in a row now, but have been unable to secure the big win. Most notably, a 2014 regional round game saw a Monday finish due to weather and a disappointing 44-41 loss for their best team. Both teams have posted impressive records this season, with Regents at 9-1 and LSA at 9-2. In the Knights 9 wins, the most points allowed is 14. Only Division I FW All Saints posted more than 2 TDs and took a victory from the Knights. The Pioneers 2 defeats came at the hands of undefeated Second Baptist (expected) and in OT to Concordia Lutheran (unexpected). The lack of overlapping opponents makes this one a tricky contest. LSA saw the Centurions score 36 last week, which makes me think Regents will score plenty this week. The Knights defense should be good enough to keep the Pioneers in check too. Regents back to the semis, 33-21.
Victoria St. Joseph High School vs. Houston Second Baptist School @ Wharton -- The Eagles have been the dominant force south of I-20 this year in Division II, reaching 11-0. The Flyers snagged a road win to reach Round 2 for the first time since 2009 where they lost a tight one to Parish Episcopal (17-15). St. Joseph has always been impressive for their ability to take long road trips and be ready to play. The Flyers had real chances to beat the eventual champions in both the 2008 and 2009 playoffs. This year's squad is probably more of an upstart that likely can not match the Eagles this week. The Flyers are just 6-3 thanks to some cancellations and limited Second Baptist to just 30 in their first meeting, the Eagles lowest output of the season. Last week's saw Brentwood give the Eagles a quality fight. Falling just 43-29 at SBS. The Eagles probably need a better defensive game to secure this win, but I also think Brentwood's offense might be stronger than the Flyers. A close battle to the end, but Second Baptist wins to set up the expected Regents-SBS showdown for a spot in the title game. Eagles to the semis, 30-20.
Division I
Fort Worth Nolan Catholic High School vs. Plano John Paul II High School @ Grapevine -- The Cardinals scored their first ever playoff win last week with a 21-16 victory over San Antonio Central. The Cardinals 8 wins is 4 more than any other season in program history. DC, Prestonwood, and Parish are the 3 to best JP2 this season. Only Parish blew out the Cardinals. The Vikings were back on track last week by dominating the defending state champion 45-14 and are now 11-0. In common opponents, the Vikings dominated Bishop Lynch 37-6. The Cardinals scored their first ever win over the Friars to close the regular season, 21-13. While these are not the Cardinals that lost 35 in a row and didn't win a game for 3 straight seasons. The Vikings are a well balanced team succeeding with both offense and defense on the road to 11-0. The form that Nolan showed to blast past Dunne is enough to win here, but it will not be a walkover. I just do not see the Cardinals posting enough points to win this week. Vikings win 35-21.
Dallas Parish Episcopal School vs. Midland Christian School @ Abilene Christian University -- The Panthers were the recipients of the first round bye this season after Nolan fell in Round 2 last year after having the bye. The team that knocked off Nolan last year? Parish. The Panthers knocked off TCCH to start the season and then were shocked by Fort Worth All Saints, who exited in Round 1. Parish has been incredibly dominant in their 8 game win steak since then, scoring at least 40 in every game and allowing fewer than 19 in every game. Just one of the 8 opponents past 14 points and the Panthers won by at least 23 every week. The Mustangs had an up-and-down season, currently sitting at 7-4. A dominant 2nd half saw the MCS push to round 2 with a 46-22 win over St. Pius. The Mustangs secured that home game with a season closing win over Fort Worth All Saints, the lone squad to beat Parish. Each of MCS 4 losses was closely contested with only Nolan scoring a double-digit win. MCS is rarely blown out and I doubt they will be here. The struggles offensively against the Mustangs best opponents makes it hard for me to pick them here. It won't be a rout, but the Panthers win. Parish to the semis, 32-24.
Quick Hits: (Season: 97-23)
Dallas Bishop Lynch over Houston St. Thomas
Plano Prestonwood Christian over San Antonio Antonian
Lubbock Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Arlington Pantego Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Boerne Geneva over League City Bay Area Christian
The Woodlands Christian over Austin Texas School for the Deaf
Muenster Sacred Heart High School over The Woodlands Legacy Prep
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Bryan Brazos Christian
Shiner St. Paul High School over Dallas Covenant School
Tomball Rosehill Christian over Fort Worth Lake Country Christian
This Week: (Season: 76-16)
Division II
Grapevine Faith Christian School vs. Dallas Christian School @ Wildcat-Ram Stadium -- The Chargers and Lions meet in the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. In 2016, the Lions took a 2OT victory. In 2017, the Chargers dealt a shutout to advance to Round 2. Dallas Christian has enjoyed a largely dominant season, reaching 10 wins for the 7th time in 8 season. The Chargers held there first 6 opponents to 14 or less while 4 of the last 5 have scored at least 21. This has included the best of DC's opposition and the lone defeat at TCCH. The Lions fell just once on the season, in a neutral site game against UIL stalwart Canadian. The Lions have also posted strong defensive performances with just 4 opponents scoring more than 18. Both teams are strong at the quarterback position, and that seems to be the key in this game. Which QB will get the upper hand on the other's defense? I think this is a low slow scoring battle with a big surge late. In common opponents both teams saw Tyler Grace and FWC in the last two week. Each team played a similar game against Tyler Grace. Each established a sizable lead for a handy victory. A 45-27 win for DC is remarkably similar to a 48-28 win for Faith. The Chargers built a big lead over FWC before landing on a 46-21 victory. Faith edged FWC 27-23 for the district title. Not a ton of mystery in the punch line for this author. Chargers win 30-28.
Bullard Brook Hill School vs. Cedar Hill Trinity Christian School @ Athens -- The Guard and Tigers met just 2 weeks ago to close the regular season. Only two opponents scored more than 14 against TCCH this year. DC posted just 16 while Parish scored 33 in the Tigers lone defeat. The Guard have surged late in the season reaching 8-3 on the season. After securing two district wins and showing well in a 21-3 defeat to DC, Brook Hill was pounded 44-7 by the Tigers. The Tigers are the back-to-back state champions for a reason and I doubt the Guard can turn around 37 points in just 2 weeks. Maybe a bit of overconfidence could get in the way, but I doubt it. Tigers win handily, but a bit closer in Round 2. A nice road win in Round 1 for Brook Hill, TCCH to the semis 38-8.
Regents School of Austin vs. Houston Lutheran South Academy @ Hallettsville -- The Knights have reached the last 3 state championship games, losing all 3. Unfortunately, that means they are entering Buffalo Bills territory. The Pioneers have been a next level contender for several seasons in a row now, but have been unable to secure the big win. Most notably, a 2014 regional round game saw a Monday finish due to weather and a disappointing 44-41 loss for their best team. Both teams have posted impressive records this season, with Regents at 9-1 and LSA at 9-2. In the Knights 9 wins, the most points allowed is 14. Only Division I FW All Saints posted more than 2 TDs and took a victory from the Knights. The Pioneers 2 defeats came at the hands of undefeated Second Baptist (expected) and in OT to Concordia Lutheran (unexpected). The lack of overlapping opponents makes this one a tricky contest. LSA saw the Centurions score 36 last week, which makes me think Regents will score plenty this week. The Knights defense should be good enough to keep the Pioneers in check too. Regents back to the semis, 33-21.
Victoria St. Joseph High School vs. Houston Second Baptist School @ Wharton -- The Eagles have been the dominant force south of I-20 this year in Division II, reaching 11-0. The Flyers snagged a road win to reach Round 2 for the first time since 2009 where they lost a tight one to Parish Episcopal (17-15). St. Joseph has always been impressive for their ability to take long road trips and be ready to play. The Flyers had real chances to beat the eventual champions in both the 2008 and 2009 playoffs. This year's squad is probably more of an upstart that likely can not match the Eagles this week. The Flyers are just 6-3 thanks to some cancellations and limited Second Baptist to just 30 in their first meeting, the Eagles lowest output of the season. Last week's saw Brentwood give the Eagles a quality fight. Falling just 43-29 at SBS. The Eagles probably need a better defensive game to secure this win, but I also think Brentwood's offense might be stronger than the Flyers. A close battle to the end, but Second Baptist wins to set up the expected Regents-SBS showdown for a spot in the title game. Eagles to the semis, 30-20.
Division I
Fort Worth Nolan Catholic High School vs. Plano John Paul II High School @ Grapevine -- The Cardinals scored their first ever playoff win last week with a 21-16 victory over San Antonio Central. The Cardinals 8 wins is 4 more than any other season in program history. DC, Prestonwood, and Parish are the 3 to best JP2 this season. Only Parish blew out the Cardinals. The Vikings were back on track last week by dominating the defending state champion 45-14 and are now 11-0. In common opponents, the Vikings dominated Bishop Lynch 37-6. The Cardinals scored their first ever win over the Friars to close the regular season, 21-13. While these are not the Cardinals that lost 35 in a row and didn't win a game for 3 straight seasons. The Vikings are a well balanced team succeeding with both offense and defense on the road to 11-0. The form that Nolan showed to blast past Dunne is enough to win here, but it will not be a walkover. I just do not see the Cardinals posting enough points to win this week. Vikings win 35-21.
Dallas Parish Episcopal School vs. Midland Christian School @ Abilene Christian University -- The Panthers were the recipients of the first round bye this season after Nolan fell in Round 2 last year after having the bye. The team that knocked off Nolan last year? Parish. The Panthers knocked off TCCH to start the season and then were shocked by Fort Worth All Saints, who exited in Round 1. Parish has been incredibly dominant in their 8 game win steak since then, scoring at least 40 in every game and allowing fewer than 19 in every game. Just one of the 8 opponents past 14 points and the Panthers won by at least 23 every week. The Mustangs had an up-and-down season, currently sitting at 7-4. A dominant 2nd half saw the MCS push to round 2 with a 46-22 win over St. Pius. The Mustangs secured that home game with a season closing win over Fort Worth All Saints, the lone squad to beat Parish. Each of MCS 4 losses was closely contested with only Nolan scoring a double-digit win. MCS is rarely blown out and I doubt they will be here. The struggles offensively against the Mustangs best opponents makes it hard for me to pick them here. It won't be a rout, but the Panthers win. Parish to the semis, 32-24.
Quick Hits: (Season: 97-23)
Dallas Bishop Lynch over Houston St. Thomas
Plano Prestonwood Christian over San Antonio Antonian
Lubbock Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Arlington Pantego Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Boerne Geneva over League City Bay Area Christian
The Woodlands Christian over Austin Texas School for the Deaf
Muenster Sacred Heart High School over The Woodlands Legacy Prep
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Bryan Brazos Christian
Shiner St. Paul High School over Dallas Covenant School
Tomball Rosehill Christian over Fort Worth Lake Country Christian
Thursday, November 14, 2019
Area Playoff Picks 2019
My apologies for the delay this week, its a busy time as things ramp up to the postseason. A long season has given way to a four week sprint to the finish. There are some clear favorites and some wide open divisions. Let's dive in to Week 12!
This Week: (Season: 67-15)
Division II Playoff Preview
Fort Worth Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The long time rivals clash again in Mesquite. Many games have come down to the end or the years. Punters have been called down inside their own 20, teams have been made to wait 10 minutes for a pre-game ceremony to start, blowouts have left bad feelings, just your typical rivalry. The Chargers finished a 9-1 season with a mostly dominant win over Tyler Grace. The 4th quarter was not DC's best though, and 27 points was the worst performance in regulation of the season against non-TCCH opponents. After opening a 31-0 lead on the 1st offensive play of the half, DC seemed to ease off the throttle opening the door. This is a bit of a disturbing trend for the Chargers. A 21-0 lead over Cornerstone turned into a 21-21 tie and 2OTs. After scoring on the 1st play of the 2nd half to make it 20-16 against TCCH, DC did not score again in a 40-16 loss. Then the slow finish against Tyler Grace. The starts have been good against the best teams, but the finishes suspect. The Cardinals have an uncharacteristic 5-5 season, including a pretty surprising loss to Frisco Legacy that left the Cardinals heading on the road in Round 1. Which team will visit Mesquite? The one that was shut out in the 2nd half against Legacy? The one that had Grapevine Faith in a 4 point game with the ball and a chance for the lead? The one that managed just 19 against Fort Worth Southwest? The one that beat SPC champ Country Day? I really don't know. I think Chargers are the better team, and the game is at DC. However, DC managed just 10 in last year's regional playoff loss against FWC. I'm expecting a close memorable game like so many between these two are. Chargers win 21-18.
Tyler Grace Community @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Lions took back the district crown from FWC with a 27-23 win to close the season at 8-1. With such a heavy favorite in Division II and Faith in the opposite district from TCCH, its been easy to lose track of them. The only blemish came to UIL power Canadian while still scoring 35 points. The Lions have scored 27 or more in all 9 games this season. The Cougars have been unable to get that big win for the last few seasons. A 5-5 campaign ended with a 45-27 loss at DC. They posted a strong 2nd half in that one, but had dug too big a hole early on. A better start is imperative for the Cougars in this road clash. Also, the Cougars defense is going to need to find its best performance of the year. Three district losses in a row with each opponent scoring at least 33 points does not bode well to take on the previously detailed Lions offense. Faith wins at home 42-21.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- The Guard were once again the team expected to probably only beat McKinney Christian in the district slate, and once again they beat Tyler Grace to secure a better finish. The Eagles surprised me when they dominated the 2nd half against FWC to move up to 2nd place in the district. A much improved 8-2 season sets up an interesting game in Round 1. Last week's struggle in defeating Prince of Peace just 18-14 does not speak well for the playoff success. For comparison, FWC beat the same POP squad 50-11. Legacy beat FWC though and earned their spot. Brook Hill's 7-3 season with losses to Division I John Paul II, DC, and TCCH makes them an interesting road team in Round 1. The Guard had some impressive offensive outputs early on this season, but just 20 total points in their 3 losses. If the Guard scores 28 in this one I think its a win, but that is far from a given. I feel like I always need at least one road win pick in this round. I'll take the Guard 28-24.
Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers remain the dominant power in Division II and little appears will change this season. TCCH has been a little less dominant this year than last, but still only being really tested by Bishop Lynch and Parish Episcopal in the opening pair of games this season. Only Lynch and a thunderstorm held the Tigers under 27 points this year. The Eagles made it back to the playoffs with the 4th place spot going back to District 1 this year. They also improved from 3-7 to 6-4. Southwest lost the first two district games to FWC and Legacy by just 7 points combined, and secured a win over SPC champion Country Day. Good to see the Eagles improving, but its not going to happen this week. Tigers win big, 44-7.
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian @ Austin Regents -- The Knights will look to reach a 4th straight title game in these playoffs and seek another shot at the king. Regents has lost just 2 regular season games in 4 years. This year only Fort Worth All Saints got the better of the Knights and that was by just 5 points. The Knights offense has scored at least 29 in all 9 games this season and should be primed for a big playoff push. The Eagles have had a much improved season after 2018 saw them not finish the season due to low numbers. While a 5-4 season is not one to put down as their best, it is a step in the right direction. The Eagles have scored quite a few points themselves, scoring at least 28 in 7 of 9 games. Regents will be a tough task for 1st year head coach Jordan Black (Dallas Christian and NFL alum). Knights win 38-14.
Houston Lutheran South vs. Corpus Christi John Paul II @ Edna -- The nature of having 5 districts in Division II has not been kind to the Pioneers. For the 2nd time in as many seasons, Lutheran South finishes 2nd but does not get a home game. The Pioneers really burst into the Division II mix in 2014 with a high powered offense that lost a thriller in the regional round that was held over to Monday due to storms. 2019 has been a 8-2 campaign with a loss last week to Second Baptist keeping them from the district title. The Pioneers recovered nicely after a disappointing loss to Tomball Concordia early on the Pioneers ran off 7 in a row. Only Second Baptist has been able to limit the Lutheran South attack that posted at least 35 points in all other outings. The Centurions have made great strides this year posting just its 2nd 7-win season and 1st since 2011. With no overlap in opponents this is a tricky one to project. I commend both schools for picking interesting mascots, but I'll go with LSA just on reputation. Pioneers win 35-20.
Victoria St. Joseph @ San Antonio Holy Cross -- The Knights won another district title among the San Antonio grouping with the usually strong defense leading the way. Only Regents cleared 30 on the Knights this season. Despite this success Holy Cross finished the regular season just 6-3. Finding the offense to get the big win will be the challenge for Holy Cross as it has been for a while. For example, Holy Cross has lost 7 in a row to Regents and in the last 4 meetings combined they managed just 13 points. The Flyers are a long time TAPPS program that had three 10-win seasons in 4 years around the late 2000s. Things have been turning up for St. Joseph after a 1-9 season just 2 years ago in 2017. The Flyers have beaten teams they should and lost when punching up. I think they are fighting up hill here, particularly on the road. That said, a 1-point loss to Lutheran South and holding Second Baptist to just 30 points suggests they should be in this one. I think Holy Cross wins at home, but if the Flyers can score in the 30s I doubt the Knights can keep up. I'll take the Knights 22-19.
Austin Brentwood Christian @ Houston Second Baptist -- The Bears reached the 2018 playoffs in their first season in Division II, and just 4th season of 11-man football overall. Their prize was a 57-0 drubbing at the hands of eventual champion and undefeated TCCH. This year's prize for reaching the playoffs is not much better with 10-0 Second Baptist. A very competitive 8-2 season has led Brentwood back to the postseason, falling to Shiner St. Paul and Regents during the year. The Bears had their first bye week after playing 10 weeks in a row, and they'll need it for this road trip. The Eagles have posted at least 41 points in 8 of 10 wins this year. Just Victoria St. Joseph and Tomball Concordia held SBS under 41 with 30 and 38 respectively. Regents would probably be the only team in this half of the bracket I think can slow the Eagle attack. I just can't see Brentwood being the team to spring this shocker. Good season for the Bears who continue to improve, but Eagles dominate. Second Baptist wins 42-14.
Some years I've projected the other rounds, but I think we know what my leanings are so it feels silly. The Division II playoff preview always ends with a rundown of the playoff teams. For the 6th year in a row here we go...
A few bracket changes and team defections changes the participants a bit. Only 2 duplicate mascots this year, though the usual offender is in top form. There are 2 Knights taking their usual places in the bracket, but 4 Eagles invading the tournament. Probably more contenders in the Knights group than Eagles though.
Good luck to everyone on the road to state, 4 Eagles, 2 Knights, the defending champ Tigers, the Cardinals, the Cougars, the Lions, the Guard, the Pioneers, the Flyers, and the Bears are all in the mix. A special best of luck to the best mascot in the tournament, the Centurions. Then we always finish with wishing the best of luck to the Chargers!
Bonus Division I Picks
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Fort Worth Nolan -- This one feels like it should be later than the 1st round, but that's what happens when you lose your district games. The defending champs head to Fort Worth with the defense formerly known as the Red Swarm. The Falcons had flashes of that state title form, holding All Saints and St. Pius to 2 and 8 each, but then district play hit with teams scoring 37, 37, 43, and 49, in the four outings. The bad outweighed the good with a 4-6 finish for Dunne in the regular season. The Vikings put together the only 10-0 season in Division I, and appear to be set for a good run. Seeing Dunne as the opener is probably not what they had in mind though. With some close losses, byes, and trips to Brownsville, the Vikings have not won a playoff game since 2015. Nolan has appeared to be a dominant team all year. Piling up points, impressive wins, great defense, have all been the norms in 2019. However, then 0-9 TCA had Nolan backing up into the ropes. The Vikings passing game vanished with a different QB in the game. The game against TCA will get the Vikings beat here. Their other 9 performances are probably all good for a victory. If Nolan gets to 28 they win easily. If Dunne can hold that score to 20 or so they just might pull the upset. I'll take Nolan at home though. Vikings win 32-14.
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Friars travel west as well, but see a less vaunted opponent in All Saints. The Saints are just 5-4 on the season, but have played close contests much of the season. Matching a good offensive game with a strong defensive stand has been the challenge for All Saints. The Friars have been equally mysterious. To open the season they limited TCCH to just 16 points in a 3 point defeat. Exciting and impressive wins over Ennis and Frisco Centennial put the Friars in the mix for high rankings. Then San Antonio Cornerstone scored 50, and Nolan blasted the Friars 37-6. Losses to John Paul II and Prestonwood where the Friars scored just 10 and 13 points leaves this writer wondering which offense shows up to this one. The good Lynch offense (41 against Ennis, 43 against Dunne) has a real shot at glory. The bad Lynch offense will be quickly dispatched in this tournament. This is a coin flip game to me. If Lynch gets to 28 they win, otherwise All Saints does. Big turnover wins it late for the Friars. Road upset for Lynch, 28-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 90-20)
Plano John Paul II over San Antonio Central Catholic
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
San Antonio Antonian over Argyle Liberty Christian
Midland Christian over Houston St. Pius X
Houston St. Thomas over Trinity Christian - Addison
Dallas Shelton over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Austin Texas School for the Deaf over Houston Lutheran North
Temple Central Texas Christian over The Woodland Legacy Prep
Dallas Covenant over Beaumont Legacy Christian
This Week: (Season: 67-15)
Division II Playoff Preview
Fort Worth Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The long time rivals clash again in Mesquite. Many games have come down to the end or the years. Punters have been called down inside their own 20, teams have been made to wait 10 minutes for a pre-game ceremony to start, blowouts have left bad feelings, just your typical rivalry. The Chargers finished a 9-1 season with a mostly dominant win over Tyler Grace. The 4th quarter was not DC's best though, and 27 points was the worst performance in regulation of the season against non-TCCH opponents. After opening a 31-0 lead on the 1st offensive play of the half, DC seemed to ease off the throttle opening the door. This is a bit of a disturbing trend for the Chargers. A 21-0 lead over Cornerstone turned into a 21-21 tie and 2OTs. After scoring on the 1st play of the 2nd half to make it 20-16 against TCCH, DC did not score again in a 40-16 loss. Then the slow finish against Tyler Grace. The starts have been good against the best teams, but the finishes suspect. The Cardinals have an uncharacteristic 5-5 season, including a pretty surprising loss to Frisco Legacy that left the Cardinals heading on the road in Round 1. Which team will visit Mesquite? The one that was shut out in the 2nd half against Legacy? The one that had Grapevine Faith in a 4 point game with the ball and a chance for the lead? The one that managed just 19 against Fort Worth Southwest? The one that beat SPC champ Country Day? I really don't know. I think Chargers are the better team, and the game is at DC. However, DC managed just 10 in last year's regional playoff loss against FWC. I'm expecting a close memorable game like so many between these two are. Chargers win 21-18.
Tyler Grace Community @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Lions took back the district crown from FWC with a 27-23 win to close the season at 8-1. With such a heavy favorite in Division II and Faith in the opposite district from TCCH, its been easy to lose track of them. The only blemish came to UIL power Canadian while still scoring 35 points. The Lions have scored 27 or more in all 9 games this season. The Cougars have been unable to get that big win for the last few seasons. A 5-5 campaign ended with a 45-27 loss at DC. They posted a strong 2nd half in that one, but had dug too big a hole early on. A better start is imperative for the Cougars in this road clash. Also, the Cougars defense is going to need to find its best performance of the year. Three district losses in a row with each opponent scoring at least 33 points does not bode well to take on the previously detailed Lions offense. Faith wins at home 42-21.
Bullard Brook Hill @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- The Guard were once again the team expected to probably only beat McKinney Christian in the district slate, and once again they beat Tyler Grace to secure a better finish. The Eagles surprised me when they dominated the 2nd half against FWC to move up to 2nd place in the district. A much improved 8-2 season sets up an interesting game in Round 1. Last week's struggle in defeating Prince of Peace just 18-14 does not speak well for the playoff success. For comparison, FWC beat the same POP squad 50-11. Legacy beat FWC though and earned their spot. Brook Hill's 7-3 season with losses to Division I John Paul II, DC, and TCCH makes them an interesting road team in Round 1. The Guard had some impressive offensive outputs early on this season, but just 20 total points in their 3 losses. If the Guard scores 28 in this one I think its a win, but that is far from a given. I feel like I always need at least one road win pick in this round. I'll take the Guard 28-24.
Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers remain the dominant power in Division II and little appears will change this season. TCCH has been a little less dominant this year than last, but still only being really tested by Bishop Lynch and Parish Episcopal in the opening pair of games this season. Only Lynch and a thunderstorm held the Tigers under 27 points this year. The Eagles made it back to the playoffs with the 4th place spot going back to District 1 this year. They also improved from 3-7 to 6-4. Southwest lost the first two district games to FWC and Legacy by just 7 points combined, and secured a win over SPC champion Country Day. Good to see the Eagles improving, but its not going to happen this week. Tigers win big, 44-7.
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian @ Austin Regents -- The Knights will look to reach a 4th straight title game in these playoffs and seek another shot at the king. Regents has lost just 2 regular season games in 4 years. This year only Fort Worth All Saints got the better of the Knights and that was by just 5 points. The Knights offense has scored at least 29 in all 9 games this season and should be primed for a big playoff push. The Eagles have had a much improved season after 2018 saw them not finish the season due to low numbers. While a 5-4 season is not one to put down as their best, it is a step in the right direction. The Eagles have scored quite a few points themselves, scoring at least 28 in 7 of 9 games. Regents will be a tough task for 1st year head coach Jordan Black (Dallas Christian and NFL alum). Knights win 38-14.
Houston Lutheran South vs. Corpus Christi John Paul II @ Edna -- The nature of having 5 districts in Division II has not been kind to the Pioneers. For the 2nd time in as many seasons, Lutheran South finishes 2nd but does not get a home game. The Pioneers really burst into the Division II mix in 2014 with a high powered offense that lost a thriller in the regional round that was held over to Monday due to storms. 2019 has been a 8-2 campaign with a loss last week to Second Baptist keeping them from the district title. The Pioneers recovered nicely after a disappointing loss to Tomball Concordia early on the Pioneers ran off 7 in a row. Only Second Baptist has been able to limit the Lutheran South attack that posted at least 35 points in all other outings. The Centurions have made great strides this year posting just its 2nd 7-win season and 1st since 2011. With no overlap in opponents this is a tricky one to project. I commend both schools for picking interesting mascots, but I'll go with LSA just on reputation. Pioneers win 35-20.
Victoria St. Joseph @ San Antonio Holy Cross -- The Knights won another district title among the San Antonio grouping with the usually strong defense leading the way. Only Regents cleared 30 on the Knights this season. Despite this success Holy Cross finished the regular season just 6-3. Finding the offense to get the big win will be the challenge for Holy Cross as it has been for a while. For example, Holy Cross has lost 7 in a row to Regents and in the last 4 meetings combined they managed just 13 points. The Flyers are a long time TAPPS program that had three 10-win seasons in 4 years around the late 2000s. Things have been turning up for St. Joseph after a 1-9 season just 2 years ago in 2017. The Flyers have beaten teams they should and lost when punching up. I think they are fighting up hill here, particularly on the road. That said, a 1-point loss to Lutheran South and holding Second Baptist to just 30 points suggests they should be in this one. I think Holy Cross wins at home, but if the Flyers can score in the 30s I doubt the Knights can keep up. I'll take the Knights 22-19.
Austin Brentwood Christian @ Houston Second Baptist -- The Bears reached the 2018 playoffs in their first season in Division II, and just 4th season of 11-man football overall. Their prize was a 57-0 drubbing at the hands of eventual champion and undefeated TCCH. This year's prize for reaching the playoffs is not much better with 10-0 Second Baptist. A very competitive 8-2 season has led Brentwood back to the postseason, falling to Shiner St. Paul and Regents during the year. The Bears had their first bye week after playing 10 weeks in a row, and they'll need it for this road trip. The Eagles have posted at least 41 points in 8 of 10 wins this year. Just Victoria St. Joseph and Tomball Concordia held SBS under 41 with 30 and 38 respectively. Regents would probably be the only team in this half of the bracket I think can slow the Eagle attack. I just can't see Brentwood being the team to spring this shocker. Good season for the Bears who continue to improve, but Eagles dominate. Second Baptist wins 42-14.
Some years I've projected the other rounds, but I think we know what my leanings are so it feels silly. The Division II playoff preview always ends with a rundown of the playoff teams. For the 6th year in a row here we go...
A few bracket changes and team defections changes the participants a bit. Only 2 duplicate mascots this year, though the usual offender is in top form. There are 2 Knights taking their usual places in the bracket, but 4 Eagles invading the tournament. Probably more contenders in the Knights group than Eagles though.
Good luck to everyone on the road to state, 4 Eagles, 2 Knights, the defending champ Tigers, the Cardinals, the Cougars, the Lions, the Guard, the Pioneers, the Flyers, and the Bears are all in the mix. A special best of luck to the best mascot in the tournament, the Centurions. Then we always finish with wishing the best of luck to the Chargers!
Bonus Division I Picks
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Fort Worth Nolan -- This one feels like it should be later than the 1st round, but that's what happens when you lose your district games. The defending champs head to Fort Worth with the defense formerly known as the Red Swarm. The Falcons had flashes of that state title form, holding All Saints and St. Pius to 2 and 8 each, but then district play hit with teams scoring 37, 37, 43, and 49, in the four outings. The bad outweighed the good with a 4-6 finish for Dunne in the regular season. The Vikings put together the only 10-0 season in Division I, and appear to be set for a good run. Seeing Dunne as the opener is probably not what they had in mind though. With some close losses, byes, and trips to Brownsville, the Vikings have not won a playoff game since 2015. Nolan has appeared to be a dominant team all year. Piling up points, impressive wins, great defense, have all been the norms in 2019. However, then 0-9 TCA had Nolan backing up into the ropes. The Vikings passing game vanished with a different QB in the game. The game against TCA will get the Vikings beat here. Their other 9 performances are probably all good for a victory. If Nolan gets to 28 they win easily. If Dunne can hold that score to 20 or so they just might pull the upset. I'll take Nolan at home though. Vikings win 32-14.
Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Friars travel west as well, but see a less vaunted opponent in All Saints. The Saints are just 5-4 on the season, but have played close contests much of the season. Matching a good offensive game with a strong defensive stand has been the challenge for All Saints. The Friars have been equally mysterious. To open the season they limited TCCH to just 16 points in a 3 point defeat. Exciting and impressive wins over Ennis and Frisco Centennial put the Friars in the mix for high rankings. Then San Antonio Cornerstone scored 50, and Nolan blasted the Friars 37-6. Losses to John Paul II and Prestonwood where the Friars scored just 10 and 13 points leaves this writer wondering which offense shows up to this one. The good Lynch offense (41 against Ennis, 43 against Dunne) has a real shot at glory. The bad Lynch offense will be quickly dispatched in this tournament. This is a coin flip game to me. If Lynch gets to 28 they win, otherwise All Saints does. Big turnover wins it late for the Friars. Road upset for Lynch, 28-21.
Quick Hits: (Season: 90-20)
Plano John Paul II over San Antonio Central Catholic
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
San Antonio Antonian over Argyle Liberty Christian
Midland Christian over Houston St. Pius X
Houston St. Thomas over Trinity Christian - Addison
Dallas Shelton over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Austin Texas School for the Deaf over Houston Lutheran North
Temple Central Texas Christian over The Woodland Legacy Prep
Dallas Covenant over Beaumont Legacy Christian
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Week 11 Picks 2019
As the time changes we reach another season's end. Its been a much drier season though we do seem to be set for a cooler finish this week. Good luck and safe travels on the road to state.
This Week: (Season: 60-15)
Dallas Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Chargers used a dominant 2nd half to put away McKinney Christian last week and return to the win column. DC is certainly favored heading into this finale, but the Cougars are no easy out. Grace is in the playoffs, but an upset win here could vault them up the standings. A loss would put the Cougars on the road to the District 1 champion, likely a heavily favored Grapevine Faith. The Cougars have rarely matched a good offensive outing and a good defensive outing in the same game. Wills Point and Canton victories feel a very long time ago at this point. The Cougars have held just 3 of 9 opponents under 20 points. The Chargers defense has been the dominant unit again this season, holding 7 of 9 opponents under 15 points. The Cougars will have to find a way to score to take this road win. If Grace can not reach 28, I can't see how they win. Chargers secure 2nd place with a 35-19 victory.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard have secured a playoff spot, but with one shocking upset could find themselves with the district crown. Most likely it will be a 3rd place finish for Brook Hill, but the Guard will stand a decent chance at a road upset in Round 1. This leaves a reasonable chance these two could meet twice in 3 weeks. The Tigers have not looked as good as 2018, but that is more a commentary on the dominance of the 2018 squad than a negative for the 2019 bunch. In three district wins the Tigers have won by a combined 124 points. DC managed to "limit" the Tigers to 40. Now the Brook Hill defense has shown to be a unit that can battle having held 5 opponents to a touchdown or less. Limiting DC to 21 is another good performance. However, only scoring 3 against DC while TCCH managed 40 to go with just 27 scored against Southwest Christian (likely TCCH Round 1 opponent) makes it hard to see Brook Hill scoring in this one. Guard defense keeps it close for a while, but a tidy home win for the Tigers is to be expected. TCCH wins 38-0.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ McKinney Christian -- The Crusaders withdrew from Division II to start the year and will be in Division III for next season. TKG chose to maintain this date with McKinney Christian to close the season. The stakes are low here, but the Mustangs have shown improvement in 2019. With a decent chance that 4 of 5 teams will make the playoffs in MCA's district next alignment, the Mustangs could be pointing toward a playoff appearance next alignment. To that end, keeping the Crusaders from their 2nd win this year would be a start. The Mustangs struggled against the 4 playoff teams of District 2, but the Crusaders have just struggled in general. All 7 defeats have seen the Crusaders opposition score at least 40 points. The Mustangs scored just 12 points in 4 district games, but in their 4-0 start they were a high powered offense with outings of 49, 44, and 54 to open the season. The Mustangs should close the season with a good feeling. MCA wins 42-14.
Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- At the start of the season, and even the start of district play this seemed to be destined for a 3-0 vs. 3-0 district title game. However, the Cardinals were bounced by Frisco Legacy in Week 9. The small size of the district slate though leaves an opprutunity still. Only UIL power Canadian has gotten the better of the the Lions this season while its been an up and down 5-4 season for FWC. The Cardinals really only dominated Prince of Peace and Valley Mills this season while Faith really put the screws to Southwest (a 3 point victory for FWC) and Legacy (a loss for FWC). Faith has played just 3 games since the loss to Canadian on September 28th. Particularly with the game in Grapevine, I just do not see FWC scoring anywhere close to enough to keep up with the Lions offense that has scored 35 in 7 of 8 games and scored 27 in the other game. However, I thought Faith was a clear favorite in this game last year and it bit me. Lions win at home 42-20.
Houston Second Baptist @ Houston Lutheran South -- With all the rightful hype of TCCH going for 3rd straight title, its easy to lose track of the Eagles that are the only 9-0 team in Division II. Second Baptist is the last school south of the I-20 corridor to win TAPPS 2nd largest division when they won then 4A in 1999. Nobody playing in this one was even born then. That's how long its been since the "North" was not on top in Division II. The Eagles have run off several district titles, but have been snake bit in the playoffs. The Pioneers have also suffered playoff disappointments for their best teams, including a regional game held over to Monday due to rain in 2014. Last year's matchup went to OT before Second Baptist prevailed. The Eagles have flown high all season long scoring at least 30 points in all 9 victories and posting 41 or more in 7 outings. The Pioneers may be the best opponent of the season, entering at 8-1. Both teams largely controlled district opposition with Victoria St. Joseph being the lone exception. The Flyers lost by only a point at Lutheran South and were the team to hold Second Baptist to 30. Notably Tomball Concordia provided the lone defeat for the Pioneers while the Eagles bested them 38-13 the next week. I do not think the Pioneers can slow the Eagles offense enough to win, but should put up some points to make it interesting. With the game at Second Baptist, I just can't pick the upset here. Eagles finish a 10-0 regular season with a 42-28 win.
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- Realignment telling us Dunne's enrollment is down a bit helps explain some of the Falcons struggles. Its a curious game this week for Dunne, Nolan, and Prestonwood, as they each know who they will play next week. Tomball Concordia is also locked in, but has the week off. The Lions have long been thought of as a dominant offense, but this year has been a slower paced group using their defense to win games. In their last 5 only Parish has posted more than 17 points, including good teams in John Paul, Lynch, and All Saints. That is not a recipe for success for the Falcons who have struggled offensively this year. Even last season's state title depended heavily on the defense. There have been signs of that defense that won the state title, such as holding All Saints to 2 and St. Pius to 8. However, it has not been consistent enough including allowing 43 to Lynch and 37 to John Paul (admittedly in 11OT). With game on Rugged Dr. at Bishop Dunne, I can't see the Falcons getting blown out. Expect a defensive battle, Lions win 17-14.
Lubbock Christian @ Lubbock Trinity Christian -- The Eagles are no stranger to district championships, including back-to-back 10 win seasons in 2016 and 2017. 2018 saw Lubbock Christian drop 2 district games to the eventual state champion and by a single point in 2OT. The Lions are newcomers to this space, playing just their 6th season of football. Trinity has been a long time state contender in the gym, but football is a new world. The Lions will host just their 2nd game in their new on campus stadium having found their offensive mojo since district play started. After a 1-4 start, Trinity has won 3 district games averaging over 41 points per game and allowing just 11 points per game. The 9-0 Eagles are going to be a stiff challenge though. The Lions may also relax a bit knowing they've secured a home game in Round 1. The district championship is a nice carrot to play for though. The Eagles appear to be the better team, but I can't see the Lions getting boatraced in this one. The Lions put up a fight, but not enough. Lubbock Christian wins 38-22.
Quick Hits: (Season: 82-18)
Dallas Parish Episcopal over San Antonio Cornerstone Christian
Midland Christian over Fort Worth All Saints
Bishop Lynch over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Thomas over Houston St. Pius X
San Antonio Holy Cross over Brownsville St. Joseph
Victoria St. Joseph over Houston Cypress Christian
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
SPC 4A: Bellaire Episcopal over Houston Kinkaid
SPC 3A: Fort Worth Country Day over The Woodlands John Cooper
TAPPS DV: Houston Village School over Austin St. Dominic Savio
This Week: (Season: 60-15)
Dallas Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Chargers used a dominant 2nd half to put away McKinney Christian last week and return to the win column. DC is certainly favored heading into this finale, but the Cougars are no easy out. Grace is in the playoffs, but an upset win here could vault them up the standings. A loss would put the Cougars on the road to the District 1 champion, likely a heavily favored Grapevine Faith. The Cougars have rarely matched a good offensive outing and a good defensive outing in the same game. Wills Point and Canton victories feel a very long time ago at this point. The Cougars have held just 3 of 9 opponents under 20 points. The Chargers defense has been the dominant unit again this season, holding 7 of 9 opponents under 15 points. The Cougars will have to find a way to score to take this road win. If Grace can not reach 28, I can't see how they win. Chargers secure 2nd place with a 35-19 victory.
Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard have secured a playoff spot, but with one shocking upset could find themselves with the district crown. Most likely it will be a 3rd place finish for Brook Hill, but the Guard will stand a decent chance at a road upset in Round 1. This leaves a reasonable chance these two could meet twice in 3 weeks. The Tigers have not looked as good as 2018, but that is more a commentary on the dominance of the 2018 squad than a negative for the 2019 bunch. In three district wins the Tigers have won by a combined 124 points. DC managed to "limit" the Tigers to 40. Now the Brook Hill defense has shown to be a unit that can battle having held 5 opponents to a touchdown or less. Limiting DC to 21 is another good performance. However, only scoring 3 against DC while TCCH managed 40 to go with just 27 scored against Southwest Christian (likely TCCH Round 1 opponent) makes it hard to see Brook Hill scoring in this one. Guard defense keeps it close for a while, but a tidy home win for the Tigers is to be expected. TCCH wins 38-0.
Tyler T.K. Gorman @ McKinney Christian -- The Crusaders withdrew from Division II to start the year and will be in Division III for next season. TKG chose to maintain this date with McKinney Christian to close the season. The stakes are low here, but the Mustangs have shown improvement in 2019. With a decent chance that 4 of 5 teams will make the playoffs in MCA's district next alignment, the Mustangs could be pointing toward a playoff appearance next alignment. To that end, keeping the Crusaders from their 2nd win this year would be a start. The Mustangs struggled against the 4 playoff teams of District 2, but the Crusaders have just struggled in general. All 7 defeats have seen the Crusaders opposition score at least 40 points. The Mustangs scored just 12 points in 4 district games, but in their 4-0 start they were a high powered offense with outings of 49, 44, and 54 to open the season. The Mustangs should close the season with a good feeling. MCA wins 42-14.
Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- At the start of the season, and even the start of district play this seemed to be destined for a 3-0 vs. 3-0 district title game. However, the Cardinals were bounced by Frisco Legacy in Week 9. The small size of the district slate though leaves an opprutunity still. Only UIL power Canadian has gotten the better of the the Lions this season while its been an up and down 5-4 season for FWC. The Cardinals really only dominated Prince of Peace and Valley Mills this season while Faith really put the screws to Southwest (a 3 point victory for FWC) and Legacy (a loss for FWC). Faith has played just 3 games since the loss to Canadian on September 28th. Particularly with the game in Grapevine, I just do not see FWC scoring anywhere close to enough to keep up with the Lions offense that has scored 35 in 7 of 8 games and scored 27 in the other game. However, I thought Faith was a clear favorite in this game last year and it bit me. Lions win at home 42-20.
Houston Second Baptist @ Houston Lutheran South -- With all the rightful hype of TCCH going for 3rd straight title, its easy to lose track of the Eagles that are the only 9-0 team in Division II. Second Baptist is the last school south of the I-20 corridor to win TAPPS 2nd largest division when they won then 4A in 1999. Nobody playing in this one was even born then. That's how long its been since the "North" was not on top in Division II. The Eagles have run off several district titles, but have been snake bit in the playoffs. The Pioneers have also suffered playoff disappointments for their best teams, including a regional game held over to Monday due to rain in 2014. Last year's matchup went to OT before Second Baptist prevailed. The Eagles have flown high all season long scoring at least 30 points in all 9 victories and posting 41 or more in 7 outings. The Pioneers may be the best opponent of the season, entering at 8-1. Both teams largely controlled district opposition with Victoria St. Joseph being the lone exception. The Flyers lost by only a point at Lutheran South and were the team to hold Second Baptist to 30. Notably Tomball Concordia provided the lone defeat for the Pioneers while the Eagles bested them 38-13 the next week. I do not think the Pioneers can slow the Eagles offense enough to win, but should put up some points to make it interesting. With the game at Second Baptist, I just can't pick the upset here. Eagles finish a 10-0 regular season with a 42-28 win.
Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- Realignment telling us Dunne's enrollment is down a bit helps explain some of the Falcons struggles. Its a curious game this week for Dunne, Nolan, and Prestonwood, as they each know who they will play next week. Tomball Concordia is also locked in, but has the week off. The Lions have long been thought of as a dominant offense, but this year has been a slower paced group using their defense to win games. In their last 5 only Parish has posted more than 17 points, including good teams in John Paul, Lynch, and All Saints. That is not a recipe for success for the Falcons who have struggled offensively this year. Even last season's state title depended heavily on the defense. There have been signs of that defense that won the state title, such as holding All Saints to 2 and St. Pius to 8. However, it has not been consistent enough including allowing 43 to Lynch and 37 to John Paul (admittedly in 11OT). With game on Rugged Dr. at Bishop Dunne, I can't see the Falcons getting blown out. Expect a defensive battle, Lions win 17-14.
Lubbock Christian @ Lubbock Trinity Christian -- The Eagles are no stranger to district championships, including back-to-back 10 win seasons in 2016 and 2017. 2018 saw Lubbock Christian drop 2 district games to the eventual state champion and by a single point in 2OT. The Lions are newcomers to this space, playing just their 6th season of football. Trinity has been a long time state contender in the gym, but football is a new world. The Lions will host just their 2nd game in their new on campus stadium having found their offensive mojo since district play started. After a 1-4 start, Trinity has won 3 district games averaging over 41 points per game and allowing just 11 points per game. The 9-0 Eagles are going to be a stiff challenge though. The Lions may also relax a bit knowing they've secured a home game in Round 1. The district championship is a nice carrot to play for though. The Eagles appear to be the better team, but I can't see the Lions getting boatraced in this one. The Lions put up a fight, but not enough. Lubbock Christian wins 38-22.
Quick Hits: (Season: 82-18)
Dallas Parish Episcopal over San Antonio Cornerstone Christian
Midland Christian over Fort Worth All Saints
Bishop Lynch over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Thomas over Houston St. Pius X
San Antonio Holy Cross over Brownsville St. Joseph
Victoria St. Joseph over Houston Cypress Christian
Willow Park Trinity Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
SPC 4A: Bellaire Episcopal over Houston Kinkaid
SPC 3A: Fort Worth Country Day over The Woodlands John Cooper
TAPPS DV: Houston Village School over Austin St. Dominic Savio
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