Semifinal Playoff Picks 2017

Just 12 games remain in the TAPPS 11-man season, and then we'll have to wait until August to make fun of how many TAPPS members are the Eagles. Every semifinal promises to be a great game with some matchups we expected and a couple of teams we didn't. The champions will be crowned in less 12 days. Good luck to everyone still in the running!

This Week: (Season: 73-25)

Division II

Dallas Christian vs. Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Highland Park HS -- Division II always gets top billing here because of the author's allegiances and this week is no different. The Chargers and Tigers met just 3 weeks ago in Cedar Hill with TCCH building a 27-0 lead in the 1st half, but not scoring after that and winning 27-13. That is far from all the history in this matchup. The Chargers and Tigers have met in 2 state championship games each winning one. Big district games dot the history including this year's district championship decider. Other famous games include a game-winning field goal attempt being returned the other way for a touchdown after a bad snap (a "no-kick" six if you will), sloppy games in poor conditions, and a few dumb penalties committed by both teams along the way. To this year's matchup, the Tigers have featured a balanced attack all year holding 8 of 11 opponents to 14 or fewer points and scoring 30 points in 8 of 11 games. Though DC was one of the teams to hold the Tigers under 30. The Chargers have only underwhelmed in their two losses and even the TCCH loss probably shouldn't be thought of as a terrible performance. Among the Chargers 9 wins the double victories over FWC are the most impressive. How the FWC defense allowed just 94 points in the regular season and then allowed 80 in 2 playoff games we'll have to wonder, but some credit to the Charger offense seems appropriate. There is really not much between these two, as evidenced by a 13 point game the first time around. Both teams controlled Faith. The Tigers did it on the road while the Chargers did it at home. Both ran the district schedule. The Tigers were more impressive over Grace while DC was more impressive (at least defensively) over TKG. The picks of this author are hopefully clear after enough weeks, but this should be a great game on the field (on the sidelines and in the stands I'm less sure). Chargers squeak by 26-23.

Austin Regents vs. Austin Hyde Park @ House Park -- Historic House Park hosts this rematch from Week 11. House Park opened in 1939 and is also the subject of a famous Austin flooding picture. The Knights and Panthers schools are located just under 30 miles from one another with Regents currently holding Mopac supremacy after a 26-7 win to close the regular season. The Knights allowed just 14 points in November and only 2 opponents all season reached 20 (and one of those was the Panthers...the Parish Panthers...close enough). Hyde Park has been a middle rung team for the last several years. Making the playoffs every season, but not really being considered a contender since 2013, when curiously they beat Regents 21-0 in a playoff game at House Park. They seemed destined for a similar position when they lost to Shiner St. Paul early in the season, but rebounded to hold 7 or 8 remaining opponents to 10 or less. Thought the Knights were the ones to score more than 10. Regents for the 2nd straight year has delivered on expectations and sometimes that's a bigger challenge than being an underdog. All signs point to a defensive struggle but the weather should be nice and I think both teams may have better offensive plans this time around. The Knights pull out a win despite giving up their most points in a month. Regents wins 35-28.

Division I

Dallas Bishop Lynch vs. Houston St. Pius X @ Georgetown -- The Friars are the defending state champion and have been a top title contender for the entire season. We've been seemingly marching to a Bishop Lynch-FW All Saints showdown for the title, but the Panthers will be staunch opposition. The only loss between these two is by Pius to the other favorite in the division, All Saints, and Pius had to play the game after 2 weeks off. In the Panthers 11 games, they've scored less than 49 only twice. Once in the loss to All Saints and then in last week's win over Bishop Dunne. The Friars have probably played the tougher overall schedule just because of the depth of District 1 and as such has not been as dominant offensively as the Panthers. However, the Friar defense has seen just 87 points scored against it all season. No one has reached 20. If anyone will it will be Pius or All Saints, but I think the Friars defense proves too much this week. The Panthers will not get blown out by any means, but I believe will struggle to score enough to win. Bishop Lynch wins 27-20. (Panthers win if they get to 30)

Fort Worth All Saints vs. Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Birdville FAAC -- The Saints entry into TAPPS has been as powerful as expected while the Lions have been a top team but also not the offensive juggernaut they have been in the recent past. The only losses between these are both by the Lions to two teams playing in these semifinals. These two opened the season in Plano with a shootout won by the Saints 61-50. St. Pius X is the only other Saints opponent to reach 30 let alone the lofty heights of half-a-hundred. The Lions have been much more reliant on their defense than previous seasons. It took 8 games after the opener against All Saints for the Lions to allow 61 points total after the Saints posted that number in one game. I would expect the defenses to be in better shape to produce a lower scoring contest than that Week 1 meeting. The Saints appear to have the better offensive attack and the better wins on the season. Having beaten Prestonwood and St. Pius looks better on the resume than Episcopal or St. Thomas. Fortunately, this one will not be decided by a committee looking at resumes. I'll take the Saints to outlast the Lions defense. All Saints wins 35-20.

Division III

Lubbock Christian vs. McKinney Christian @ McMurry University -- The Eagles have been a frequent visitor to the playoff and eliminated Shelton for the 2nd straight year last week. The Mustangs have been a program on the rise but dropped 3 games this season before finding their stride against the many Trinity's in the playoffs. McKinney Christian is somewhat unique in semifinalist in that they do not have a ton of points or a stellar defense that their results point to. The defense has not been bad by any means, but they've also seen their share of big numbers put up against them. Lubbock Christian had a stretch of defensive dominance but it appears to have come against inferior opposition. There are several common opponents on the schedules. The Eagles bested Shelton in the playoff while the Mustangs fell short by 3 points. Both teams defeated Willow Park Trinity. MCA by 11 and LCS by just 6. They both played similar games defeating Lubbock Trinity. I'm really not sure what to toss between them. Based on their scores expect the game to see around 25 points for both and be close at the end. The author picks against the Eagles when stuck on the facts. Mustangs win 27-25.

Boerne Geneva vs. Houston Cypress Christian @ Elgin HS -- The Eagles entry to 11-man has been mostly successful, having lost just 3 games in the last 2 seasons. One to perennial small-school power Shiner St. Paul and one to last year's champion Northland. Geneva was a 6-man contender before that. The Warriors success is notable each season they've been in Division III. They've also lost just 3 games in the last 2 seasons. One to Division II contender Regents and also one to last year's champion Northland. Cypress was eliminated by Reicher by just 4 points a year ago. This Division III bracket is wide open after the elimination of Reicher and Colleyville Covenant falling to Division IV. The Warriors offense is a dominant unit, scoring at least 30 in every game since the season opener against Regents. The Eagles have only been held under 30 twice on the year. Once in the loss to St. Paul and also in a game against Austin Savio. I doubt either defense is a slouch, but the offenses look to be the deciders of this one. Geneva's victory over Reicher makes me think they have a slight edge. Eagles take this one 42-28.

Division IV

Colleyville Covenant Christian vs. Dallas First Baptist Academy @ Prestonwood -- These two matched up in Dallas back in Week 3 with Covenant taking a 66-44 victory. The Saints will attempt to celebrate the opening of their new building with a spot in the state title game. The process has been non-linear for FBA as the school has evolved. A 14-0 season and a state title in 2013 gave way to some good years and then a couple of lean years. They've rebounded from a 1-4 start to roll out of 6 of 7 once district play began. The only loss was to DIII semifinalist McKinney Christian. In contrast to most semifinals these two share 8 losses on the year. The Cougars only loss on the season to Division III competition was to Shelton and the Saints put 76 on the same squad. The Saints have struggled defensively at times this season allowing over 30 points on 6 occasions. The Cougars have done so just 3 times and only once to a DIII opponent. Notably, that was to the Saints. By this time of the season, the defenses should be better positioned to make life difficult for the offenses, but this still looks to be high scoring. The rematch often takes a very different feel than the first game. I think one team will put a gap on the other early and then hold on in the 2nd half. Depth is always a factor in these smaller divisions. I'll take FBA to turn the tables and win 36-26.

Bryan Brazos Christian vs. The Woodlands Legacy Prep @ Brenham HS -- The Eagles stunned this author and many followers of TAPPS football by taking down the heavy favorite in the Division, Shiner St. Paul. They also did this in dominant fashion winning 40-14. There was little talk of Brazos' title chances and now they sit just one win from the title game. Beating St. Paul has to turn some heads. The Lions have been on alert all year, playing 0 non-district games. The only loss came to DIII semifinalist Cypress Christian. Legacy does not have the dominant unit many deep playoff teams have. The offense only scored 40 twice in 10 games and the defense held just 3 teams under 10 points on the season. The Eagles scored 40 in 6 games this season but held just 1 opponent under 10. I may be overly impressed with the St. Paul win, but I have to take Brazos in this one. Eagles win 42-28.

Quick Hits finishes the year at 101-29.

Regional Playoff Picks 2017

Round 2 is here with plenty of drama. As they say, there are no turkeys left after Thanksgiving. Some rematches to add intrigue to the slate. Will we see a big upset or just continue the march to the expected?

This Week: (Season: 69-23)

Division II

Fort Worth Christian vs. Dallas Christian @ Burleson HS -- The longtime rivals rematch a Week 3 game in which the Chargers raced to a 19-0 lead in North Richland Hills before the Cardinals defense clamped down and the offense nearly caught the Chargers losing only 19-14. Since then the 19 points allowed was the most scored on the Cardinals until last week's playoff opener. T.K. Gorman notched 21 in the first quarter but had no answers for the Cardinals on offense as they ran away to a 56-35 win. Does that performance show some weakness in the FWC defense? Maybe just an aberration, but DC did hold the same TKG offense to just 13 in Tyler. The Chargers have had some up and down moments. Largely being dominated by TCCH in the first half before holding them to 0 points in the 2nd half. Last week the defense completely controlled Grapevine Faith, but the offense had moments of difficulty. I'm not sure any result here would really surprise me. The Cardinals offense could erupt for 40+. Both defenses could control the other and find a low scoring game. Maybe a DC offensive outburst would surprise, but they did put a number of TKG much like FWC. Common opponents are T.K. Gorman, which DC defeated 50-13 and FWC defeated 56-35, and Grapevine Faith, who DC beat 29-0 and FWC beat 38-13. The number of times these two have flipped results in a rematch probably shouldn't be ignored either. Hopefully, we understand by now who the author is picking. DC wins a tight one 22-20.

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill vs. Midland Christian @ Jim Ned HS -- For two schools that have played relatively few times it feels like there is plenty of history to fall back on. The 2008 TCCH win in Brownwood is a virtual legend at this point. MCS took apart the Tigers in a 1st round game in the Tall City in 2011. The Tigers have been an incredible force offensively scoring 70 against Southwest last week and with a 60-0 road blowout of Tyler Grace to their credit. The defense is certainly no slouch. Holding playoff teams Tyler Grace, DC, Southwest, and Faith to just 36 points combined. The 33 put up by TKG is the season high for a TAPPS school but probably shouldn't be worried about since the offense was marching up and down the field on the way to 75. If a couple of injured players come back for the Mustangs it could tip the balance in the game. It might also make no difference. The Mustangs are always going to be a tough out. The form of the early season would have the Mustangs in position to win this one, but I think there are just too many obstacles to overcome. Tigers defense will keep things in check and guide them to victory. TCCH wins 28-10.

Austin Regents vs. San Antonio Holy Cross @ Buda HS -- The Knights and the Knights hook up for seemingly the 100th time in the last 5 years. Earlier this year Regents shutout Holy Cross, scoring a 21-0 win. This result is typical for the two as Regents tossed 4 shutouts in district play and Holy Cross reached 23 points just once in the district schedule. Holy Cross has dropped 4 in a row to Regents since a 30 point win in 2014. The 24 points that St. Mary's scored on Regents might have been causing for alarm but they immediately followed that with showings of 0, 7, and 7. Holy Cross scored the only road playoff win in the division at Westbury last week. In their 3 losses, they've scored 0, 6, and 9. 22 would have won their first meeting and if the Regents defense slips up they could be in trouble. I think this comes down to if Holy Cross can score 20. If they do they win. I don't think they will though. Regents heads to the semis 22-7.

Houston Second Baptist vs. Austin Hyde Park Baptist @ Brenham HS -- The Eagles were an expected member of the final 8 going into the year and delivered on their district title. The Panthers were an expected playoff team, but I think most projections would have them behind Holy Cross. A testament to the good year Hyde Park is having. The Panthers dropped the District Championship game to Regents but prior to that had rolled off 5 in a row. We should also mention Shiner St. Paul's impressive non-district win here. The Eagles are a regular visitor to this round and are also the last school South of the I-20 corridor to win a title in the 2nd largest division. After a 0-3 start left us thinking this might be the year they are pushed from the top in District 4, the Eagles won 7 in a row to reach round 2. Second Baptist has secured 3 shutouts in 4 weeks since Lutheran South posted 37. That type of defense should best the Panthers, but Hyde Park is likely the best opponent in that stretch. In common, both teams lost to Regents. Hyde Park went down 26-7 and Second Baptist 21-10. The Eagles defeated CC John Paul 26-7 and the Panthers bested them 32-3. This shapes up to be a close one. Eagles get a rematch with Regents and win 29-22.

Division I

Fort Worth All Saints over Brownsville St. Joseph @ SA Central Catholic -- The Saints first foray into TAPPS has been dominant for the most part. They've won every game by at least 11 and 7 of 10 by 23 or more. The Bloodhounds have been on the uptick in recent years, reaching the 2nd round for the 2nd straight season having lost to MCS by just 7 the year before. The teams met just 3 weeks ago in a Saints 42-8 victory. Despite having the far superior mascot, St. Joesph's path to victory appears very narrow and uphill. Seeing them again it will probably be closer than a 34 point margin, but I can't see the Bloodhounds getting over the top. All Saints jogs away 44-13.

Houston St. Pius X vs. Bishop Dunne @ Temple HS -- Probably the feature game of the week, rematching last year's semifinal that ended in a 21-18 Falcon victory. That doesn't begin to tell the story of that game, scroll back on the message board and look for a locked thread if you're interested. Dunne won 38-21 in the semis in 2015 as well. This Panthers team looks to be the best they've had in that time. This is just the 10th game for St. Pius after Harvey did a number on the schedule, and the only defeat is by 12 to All Saints. Dunne dropped 4 on the season but avenged one with last week's shutout of Liberty. The Falcons have regained form since being demolished by Bishop Lynch to open district play and I'm sure will be looking for a chance to avenge that loss. The Panthers are certainly no the team to look past. Outside of the 2 out of state opponents when the Falcons held the opponent to 17 or less they won and when they didn't they lost. Panthers will score but I think Dunne gets them again. Falcons sneak by, 28-22.

Quick Hits: (Season: 95-25)

Bishop Lynch over Parish Episcopal
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Trinity Christian - Addison
Lubbock Christian over Dallas Shelton School
Willow Park Trinity Christian over McKinney Christian
Waco Reicher Catholic over Boerne Geneva
Houston Cypress Christian over Austin Brentwood Christian
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Muenster Sacred Heart
Fort Worth Temple Christian over Dallas First Baptist Academy
Shiner St. Paul over Bryan Brazos Christian
The Woodlands Legacy Preparatory Christian over Hallettsville Sacred Heart

Area Playoff Picks 2017

Welcome back to the playoffs everyone. The opening round features some intriguing matchups, including district rematches and playoff rematches from a season ago. Will anyone look beyond their opening opponent to a more anticipated matchup and find themselves on the wrong end of a road steal? Someone will get a surprising upset. Who will it be?

This Week: (Season: 61-22, 4 more wins but 5 more losses than a year ago)

Division II Playoff Preview

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers return to the field after a sterling 2nd half defensive effort, but TCCH had done enough in the 1st half to break the Chargers 24 game district win streak. The Lions saw Southwest score a ton of points but scored a ton themselves to get an 8 point victory. The Lions defense will need to be better to secure a road win in this one. Holding MCS to just 24 points suggests they can be. Last year's OT classic in Round 2 saw the Lions score a 6 point win and then win 2 more to take the title. It has been a much different season for Faith losing 4 times. Though they have seemed to find their offensive stride the last two weeks, amassing 122 points. DC regressed from a 10-0 regular season to a 7-2 campaign. The Chargers have struggled to score against the top tier opponents. Scoring just 14, 10, and 19 against TCCH, All Saints, and FWC respectively. Though they did secure a road victory over FWC. The only common opponent is those FWC Cardinals. DC earned a 19-14 victory despite not scoring in the 2nd half. Faith fell 38-13 at home. It has been a long time since that DC-FWC game back on September 15th though. If Faith can score like they have the last two weeks the Chargers will likely struggle to keep up. Expect the DC defense to continue its form from the 2nd half in Cedar Hill and for the Chargers to prevail in a lower scoring duel. Chargers win 28-15.

Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals have rolled off 8 in a row since a 19-14 loss to DC in Week 3. The dominance of their defense has been well chronicled in this space. Only 5 of 10 opponents reached double digits and no one reached 20. The Cardinals have surrendered just 13 touchdowns for the season while oddly not recording a shutout after Week 1. A few opponents might fall on the weaker side of the spectrum but its hard to pick nits at a 35 point win in Midland. MCS may be a bit beat up, but going to Tall City and dominating will catch anyone's eye. The Crusaders first 6 games appeared to show they had fixed previous year's defensive issues. Then the meat of the schedule with DC, Grace, and TCCH hit and TKG finished on three losses allowing at least 45 in all 3. Given those numbers, it's hard to see where the Crusaders find the defense to slow an FWC team that put 42 on MCS and scored at least 38 or more in each of 9 wins this year. Further, given the offenses track record against the DC team that beat FWC where will the Crusaders find enough points to outrun the Cardinals. Somebody will get the upset this week but I can't see it being TKG. Cardinals win 42-19.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers are riding high after taking down DC for the district title. An undefeated district campaign places great expectations on the Tigers playoff success. The possible matchup with MCS next week is quite juicy, but there is a hurdle to clear first. The Eagles have been steadily improving the last 3 seasons, adding to their win total each year. The blowouts have also been less pronounced, and the offense put up 48 against Faith last week. They will need all of those points in Cedar Hill on Friday. This is the type of matchup that I wonder why teams are so willing to just play Friday night. I might try to get the Tigers off rhythm with a Saturday or Thursday game but that's just me. How will the Eagles outscore a Tigers team that allowed just 14 to Faith when the Southwest held them to just 56? A series of turnover and special teams gaffes might keep this one tight, but even then I think the Tigers would win. TCCH sees Midland in the crosshairs and wins 42-7.

Tyler Grace Community @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs appeared to be the top of the heap after beating Brock in the non-district and being in the game with FW All Saints until the late stages. Then the injury bug struck and things got a bit dicey. Last week's district championship 35 point loss will definitely sting the Mustangs. The Cougars enter on a 4 game win streak after starting the season 1-5 and taking a 60 point drubbing at home against TCCH. The Cougar offense refound itself scoring 45 or more in all 4 wins. The Mustang defense will be the best of the bunch, but signs of a chance for the road tripping Cougars. If MCS returns to some version of health they should take this win at home, but a window exists for Grace. If the Cougars get into the 40s I don't see MCS catching them given the struggles of late. However, I don't see Grace getting to 40 against the Mustangs. MCS takes this one and finds a bit of their swagger, winning 38-13.

Houston Lutheran South @ Austin Regents -- The Knights return to the postseason after failing on an OT 2-point conversion that would have claimed the first state title in Division II (or its 4A predecessor) for a school South of Waco since Second Baptist in 2000. Another dominant regular season saw 10 wins for Regents and another district title. The Pioneers enter after having one of the more remarkable seasons you'll see. Starting with a flooded school and still getting 4 wins and a playoff spot is a testament to their hard work. The Pioneers also played Second Baptist to a 5 point game scoring 37 points. The Knight amassed just 21 against the same Second Baptist squad. The Knights defense will make this a tough road for Lutheran South. Regents recorded 4 shutouts on the season and saw just 2 opponents reach 20, and still beat one of them by 41. The challenges for the Pioneers are many and they'll give this one a good battle, but Regents will be too much. Knights win 35-7.

San Antonio Holy Cross vs. Houston Westbury Christian @ Houston Baptist University -- The longtime basketball playing Wildcats worked their way to a home game in football. They find regular district contender Holy Cross in their way. The Knights recorded 5 shutouts among their 7 victories but scored just 6 points combined in their defeats against Regents and Hyde Park. The Holy Cross offense has only crossed 30 in 2 games and managed only 17 against Cornerstone who failed to win a district game. Holding the Wildcat offense at bay is key to the Knights chances. The Wildcats have made the playoffs for a 2nd straight season. A first for the school since at least 2004. Westbury is a team with a chance for a couple of wins here having lost to Second Baptist by just 6. The Wildcats have recorded 4 shutouts themselves and won every game they held the opposition under 20 points. The Knights struggled on offense and performance on defense this season points to a low scoring battle here. Hopefully, no one needs any bandages from the nearby CVS. Wildcats prevail at home for their first playoff win since at least 2004, winning 16-10.

San Antonio St. Mary's Hall @ Houston Second Baptist -- The Eagles win District 4 for the 2nd year in a row and will certainly have their eye on a deep playoff run. A rematch with Regents who bested them earlier in the season would be the goal for the Eagles. Two non-trivial hurdles must be cleared first. The Second Baptist offense has not been as potent as recent seasons. A 0-3 start was followed by a 6 game win streak as some form returned. Still, just 31 and 28 put up against the non-playoff teams in the district leaves some mystery to the Eagles game. The Barons are a relative newcomer to the TAPPS scene and had some attention when they started 3-0 this year. They really never achieved that form in district play falling to the top 3 teams by margins of 18, 27, and 41. They did score 24 against Regents, the most allowed by them all season. This is a hard game to get a good read on so I'll just have to go on preseason expectations and figure the Eagles are superior to District 3 other than Regents. Second Baptist wins 35-17.

Corpus Christi John Paul II @ Austin Hyde Park Baptist -- The Panthers exceeded expectations rattling off 5 wins after losing to Shiner St. Paul. Just another notch in the Shiner St. Paul wall. In 5 district wins the Panthers allowed no more than 10 points in a game. The Centurions (excellent choice by the way) reached 6 wins for the first time since 2011 and the playoffs for the first since 2012. The 22 game losing streak ending in 2015 seems far away this year. The 55-37 victory over Lutheran South announced their intention to be a player this season. The 54 points posted by 1-win St. Joeseph is a definite cause for alarm though. The Panthers posted 26 on the scoreboard in every game except against Regents. The Hyde Park offense at The Quarries should be too much for the Centurions to handle. Panthers win 42-12.

So for all my talk of there being a big upset, I picked all home teams. So that finishes the D2 playoff preview. So I bring you the 4th annual rundown of the playoff teams. The vinyl "Beat the Eagles" sign not as useful this year with one fewer in the bracket. Good luck on the road to State to 2 newcomers, the Centurions, and the Barons, but also to 2 Eagles, 2 Knights, the Lions, the Panthers, the Cougars, the Cardinals, the Tigers, the Mustangs, the Wildcats, the Crusaders, and the Pioneers and of course the Chargers!

Additional Picks

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Bishop Dunne -- The Falcons have had an up and down season, including a home loss to Liberty as recently as Week 10. Dunne parlayed a 5 win season a year ago into the state championship appearance, and find themselves with 5 wins again this year. The Warriors defense has given notice all year. Holding longtime power Celina to 9, Prestonwood to 14 and Lynch to just 7. Liberty won just 1 of those games though seeking a 10-9 victory over Celina. The 33 points the Warriors posted against Dunne is the most they scored against a non-JP2 opponent this year and the Falcons posted as many as any non-Gilmer opponent (after I predicted a 15-10 game of course). If the Falcon offense produces something akin to the 56 they put on Parish or the 34 they put on Nolan they should win this one. I can't see Liberty producing 33 again on the road, but I could see them holding the Falcons to far less than the 26 they scored two weeks ago. Someone forces a late turnover that wins this one. I'll take Liberty to get the bounce and win 14-7. (There's my road upset pick, knew I'd find one)

Texas School for the Deaf @ Austin Brentwood Christian -- Our smaller school pick this week visits the home of the Bears and the two Austin schools not in a district with one another. It has been a breakout season for the Bears winning 8 games after winning 8 combined in their first 2 seasons of varsity football. The results are a bit all over the place though for Brentwood. Scoring just 14 against a weak TMI squad (winning by just 2) and battling the presumptive favorite Shiner St. Paul to a 20-14 loss. The Rangers have had an up and down 5-5 season that included two 1 point losses. The upper crust of Division III this season in Reicher and Shelton controlled the Rangers from the outset. Central Texas Christian provides a common data point to look at with TSD dropping a 15-14 decision while the Bears defeated the same squad by 20. Brentwood takes this one, 39-20.

Quick Hits: (Season: 87-23, one game worse than last year)

Dallas Bishop Lynch over Beaumont Kelly
San Antonio Central Catholic over Dallas Parish Episcopal
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Antonian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Houston St. Thomas
Tomball Concordia Lutheran over Trinity Christian - Addison
Brownsville St. Joseph over Plano John Paul II
Fort Worth All Saints over Fort Worth Nolan
Dallas Shelton over Pasadena First Baptist
Temple Central Texas Christian over Hallettsville Sacred Heart
Waco Reicher over Tomball Rosehill Christian

Week 11 Picks 2017

Big games to close the season. A few head for basketball on Monday while we march to the playoffs.

This Week: (Season: 56-19)

Dallas Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Chargers and Tigers have played many big games through the years. 3 state championship games, multiple games with district title implications, and a few basketball games for kicks. This might enter the lore with both teams largely untested in district play so far. The Tigers have rung up big numbers on the scoreboard. TCCH has been held under 30 by only Division I St. Thomas (still a win for the Tigers) and UIL power Brock. The DC defense has been more than enough to win, but also has not had the dominant performance since the FWC game in Week 3. Now as FWC has piled up points and victories holding them to 14 looks better and better. The Tigers defense tossed 2 shutouts before TKG scored 33. The Tigers still won that one by 40+ though. This is a big task for DC to go on the road and get the Tigers. I think both teams have not seen offenses as good as each other since FWC and Brock. This makes me lean to an offensive show. The big turnover, special teams gaffe, or other sudden change, will decide this one I think. How that ball bounces leaves plenty of doubt in who wins this one. There is of course far less doubt about who will be picked to win by the committee of one. Chargers win 41-36.

Fort Worth Christian @ Midland Christian -- The Cardinals and Mustangs meet in the Basin to decide the District 1 title. Last season the Mustangs appeared well on their way to another district title playing the Cardinals who had been dominated by Faith earlier in the season. The Cardinals took a 35-34 off the Mustangs in North Richland Hills and still went on the road as the 3rd seeded team. This year the home game is already assured for both and the arrows point in opposite directions. The Mustangs have been bitten by the injury bug and while still posting easy wins over Legacy and Southwest, the Cardinals victories appeared to be much easier. Now basing too much on blowout margins is foolish, and that ride to near Odessa is not the easiest. MCS has held just one team under 10 points on the year. Now that game is the best win in the division, over Brock in Week 2. FWC has held 6 opponents to 10 or less and no one has scored more than 19 on the Cardinals. Expect plenty of fight from the Mustangs and close battle to the end. The offensive injuries to the Mustangs help keep the scoring low in this contest. Mustangs squeak it out at home 21-20.

Brook Hill @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars were in great peril at 1-5 to start the season. Now playing DC and TCCH to open district certainly contributed. The Guard has been up and down but really struggled offensively against the class of the district. Scoring just 17 points the last 3 weeks combined. The Cougar defense should provide a softer challenge than DC or TCCH. Just 3 scored against TKG has to be much more concerning given Grace racked up 45 last week against the same squad. The Guard needs a win by 12 to secure a playoff spot. Both teams appear to have some defensive issues, but Grace at home should secure just enough stops to win this one and secure 3rd place. Cougars win 40-30.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- The Lions took the state title last season but will start the playoffs on the road this time around. A year ago, I would say the Eagles had no chance of springing an upset. Now, I still don't like Southwest's chances but the margin is narrower. The Eagles have continued to dominate Division III opposition this year but struggle against Division II foes. Last week FWC boat raced the Eagles by 50. The Lions held the Cardinals to a tamer 38 but also were not about to take the victory. The Eagles should keep this one interesting at home, and the winner avoids the DC-TCCH winner in round 1. Lions slide by into 3rd place with a win, 38-19.

Fort Worth Nolan @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- I hyped the Warriors defense as best in the division and they responded by seeing Dunne score more than they did against Prestonwood and Lynch combined. However, the Liberty offense turned up at the right moment and won a big road game. Interestingly, a win for the Warriors and no John Paul shocker would actually send the Vikings right back to Argyle for a rematch in round 1. Based on the adding of the game in MaxPreps already for Dunne and All Saints perhaps the tiebreakers already have this as a certainty. The Vikings have lacked that signature victory. They dominated John Paul and Parish, but just squeaked by TCA and didn't threaten the powers of Prestonwood or Lynch. Holding Lynch to 7 still strikes me as evidence that the Liberty defense will surge through the Vikings here. I assume 4warriors is predicting a 3 TD Nolan victory, but I'll take the Warriors at home in the first 4 rounds of this 8 round fight. Liberty wins 21-3.

Austin Hyde Park @ Austin Regents -- The Panthers invade the pitch at Regents looking for a 2nd upset in as many weeks. After losing to Shiner St. Paul I had penciled Hyde Park into 3rd behind the usual pair of Regents and Holy Cross. These Knights would appear to be a tall order for Hyde Park, but after scoring 31 points against Holy Cross the Panthers definitely announced themselves as a candidate. The most points scored on Holy Cross all season. Regents have looked the class of the district all season after reaching the state title game last year. The last regular season loss for the Knight was to Hyde Park back in Week 6 of 2015. Given the strength of the two defenses as two score lead may put this one on ice either way. I expect the Knights to control the Panthers offense, but not a foregone conclusion at all. Knights win 24-7.

Houston St. Pius X @ Houston St. Thomas -- The Panthers and Eagles meet in their much-hyped matchup every season. Many times the district title rests in the balance and a 3-way split is still possible with an Eagles upset. The St. Pius offense kept them in the game against All Saints, while the St. Thomas defense has come up small much of the year. All 7 Eagle opponents thus far have scored at least 21. Both teams struggled with Concordia's offense allowing 80 points between them. The Panthers offense had enough to push by the Crusaders, but the Eagles were unable to freak their way past Concordia. A loss here for St. Thomas sends them to Prestonwood to open the playoffs while 2nd place Concordia would get to host TCA. Even beyond the usual rivalry, the stakes are high. Will the Eagles freak out again? Is the Pius defense better than the 42 posted by Concordia? I'll go with neither but Pius still takes the district title. Panthers win 50-38.

Division V Championship: El Paso Cathedral vs. Houston Village School @ Waco? (You'd think finding the location of this game would be easy) -- A rematch of last year's first-ever Division V Championship for this year's last-ever Division V Championship. 7 victories on the year for the Vikings including last week's semifinal win over Savio. The Fighting Irish have found the win column just 5 times but crushed Tyler All Saints last week to reach the title game. The 5 Cathedral victories have seen the Irish allow just 14 points at most while opponents in the 4 losses have scored at least 21 each. 3 of the 4 scored at least 39 each. The Cathedral offense will likely need a few points to secure victory, and the Vikings have surrendered a few this season. This figures to be a close game. I think closer than last season's 37-14 victory for the Fighting Irish. Village unable to quite close the gap though and Cathedral wins 35-23.

Quick Hits: (Season: 78-22)

Bishop Lynch over Parish Episcopal
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Trinity Christian - Addison
Brownsville St. Joseph over San Antonio Antonian
Houston Second Baptist over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Houston Westbury Christian over Houston Lutheran South
Shiner St. Paul over San Marcos Academy
Fort Worth Temple Christian over Arlington Grace Prep
Sherman Texoma Christian over Gainesville Lone Star North
Dallas Shelton School over Dallas Covenant School
Frisco Legacy over Carrollton Prince of Peace