The playoffs are here, and the tension increases. The first round home games always include a few mismatches and this week will likely be no different. However, there's always a upset brewing for one of those favorites. I'll have a pick on every 11-man playoff game this year. The road to State will always a few bumps, let's see if we can figure out who bounces off one and out of the playoffs.
This Week: (Season: 61-18)
Division III
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The quest for a three-peat starts at home, as the Chargers host the first round for the 14th straight year after winning District 2. DC allowed just 3 points in October after allowing a higher number of points than expected in September. The offense though has produced all year, averaging 49.6 points per game on the season. The Eagles were off to a 2-1 start after upsetting Fort Worth Christian in Week 3, then it turned out FWC had a bad year. LCCS went on to 4-2 but the meat of district play was a disaster. Losing the last 3 district games by scoring no more than 14 in any game and allowing 40+ in all 3. Throw in a non-district loss to Brazos Christian and 4-2 became 4-6. The Eagles struggle to score, with just 232 points on the season after scoring 101 in their first 3 games. The Chargers are not who you want to see to get that offense healthy and humming as DC has allowed just 9.1 points per game. Simply no way to see the Eagles scoring enough to win. However, strange things happen in the playoffs. In this round at DC, I've seen a 10-7 game at the 6 minute mark of the 1st stand up as the final score after 48 minutes. The Eagles make their first ever trip to Wheeler Field and won't carry the baggage that so many district opponents seem to bring to Mesquite. Ok, I tried to talk it up but we know what the pick is in this space. Chargers win 46-6.
Dallas The Covenant @ Colleyville Covenant Christian -- The battle of Covenant and the battle of DFW airport lands in the playoffs. The Cougars are the District 1 upstarts having finished 4th a season ago and suffering a 60-6 defeat in a trip to DC in round 1. This year they displaced both Grace Prep and Lake Country from what appeared to be sure claims to that 2nd seed and 1st round host. At 8-2 this is the most wins for Covenant since their 2020 state title when they played just 2 games before October 30 and finished 8-0, its all so odd to look back on. Before that it was their 2017 state championship team that won 11 games. So 8 wins twice in six seasons and those were the title teams. Maybe high hopes are in order for the playoffs in Colleyville. The Knights played a strong 2022 season, finishing 2nd in District 2 and winning 8 games. In their first season in Division III it was a disappointing home playoff loss. A 3-0 start was promising this year, but the regular season finished just 6-4 for the Knights. Too many points allowed to the top opposition makes this look like a tough trip across DFW airport. The Cougars score 33 points a game and the Knights allow 25 points per game. These two met in Week 2 and it was a 23-20 Cougars win. So expect a tight one right around 28 points. The Cougars appear to have improved since that non-district clash while the Knights may have slid back a bit. Always lean home teams in this space. Colleyville Covenant wins 28-21.
Arlington Grace Prep @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard were very disappointed to fall to 3rd place last season after a loss to Covenant. They responded by winning a road playoff game but that district seed meant playing DC in round 2 instead of the semis. That district rematch went badly for the Guard, losing 61-7. Finishing 2nd this year in District 2 means a home game and not having to play DC in Round 2. A 7-3 mark is already an improvement of a 6-6 mark in 2022. Brook Hill has allowed just 205 points on the season, and considering 55 points allowed to DC that means just 150 in 9 games. The Lions are 4-6 but haven't been disappointing. They played district champion Lubbock Trinity to a 1 point game. They were just 3 points short of Colleyville Covenant and turning that game would have had them at home in Round 1. They finished on a high note dominating Lake Country 40-14 to avoid DC in the 1st round. The winner needs to figure out its offense to compete with Lubbock Trinity, but Grace Prep did hold them to just 13. This is a rematch of a 23-20 Brook Hill win on October 6. It should be the same type of game, tight to the end. The last home playoff game for the Guard was a similar set up and Grapevine Faith took a road win from Herrington Stadium. I feel like when the teams are close they usually split the games, and I need to find a road winning somewhere. Lions win 32-29.
Schertz John Paul II @ League City Bay Area Christian -- The Broncos had a roller coaster campaign at 5-5, but the upset of Brentwood managed to get them 2nd place in District 4. Wins over Brentwood and Brazos Christian suggest they could be a factor in these playoffs. Losses to Pantego and only a 7 point win over 0-10 Katy SJ23 points to a quick exit. Only Cypress really dominated the Broncos though and with a home game it should be a good chance at a win. The Guardians have never won more than 6 games in a season and this year's 3-7 mark will be no different unless they win the state title. The John Paul defense has struggled all year, allowing 45 points per game. Notably seeing 122 put up by district foes Holy Cross and Geneva. They responded by scoring 63 of their own in a de-facto playoff game at Corpus Christi John Paul. That raised their scoring average by 4 points on the season. There are no common opponents between the two, so not much to go on here. The Broncos appear to have the better wins over Brentwood and Brazos, and they are at home. So that has to be the pick. Bay Area Christian wins 30-20.
Austin Brentwood Christian @ Boerne Geneva -- The Bears travel across the Hill Country to Geneva for a 2nd time this season. On October 5, the Eagles secured a 49-43 win in overtime over the visitors. Both teams have 6-4 records so this should be another tight one. Geneva lost 3 of its first 5 while Brentwood lost 3 of its last 5. The defense has been porous for the Eagles at 34.5 points per game, but they've outscored some of their problems with 41.5 points per game. The Bears are right in the middle of the pack scoring 33 a game and allowing 26. So expect a touchdown margin here, and much like Brook Hill and Grace Prep expect close teams to split a pair of games. Bears go on the road and turn it around. Brentwood Christian wins 44-40.
The Rundown
The readers of this space know that I talk about team mascots and love to trumpet the most unique and interesting monikers across the state. So we always open the playoffs with our own unique preview of the 4 week path to the state title. So here is rundown #10:
We certainly wish good luck and safe passage to all the teams in the fray. The year's bracket sees 2 Knights, along side the usual flock of 2 Eagles. The ferocious beasts of 2 Lions, Cougars, and Bears (oh my) seek to claim the crown. The Warriors seek revenge for a title game defeat. So we bring along the Guard and Guardians to protect us on the trail. We could ride into battle with the Broncos, but we hope the best of luck lands on the Chargers!
Bonus Picks:
Division I
Fort Worth Nolan @ Tomball Concordia Lutheran -- The lower half of Division I struggled in the regular season, but when 10 of 11 teams are in the playoffs you get some interesting pairings. In this case though, the Crusaders started 6-0 before district play struck. In the 5 on field wins Concordia allowed 110 points while in their 3 losses they allowed 96 points. The good news for the home team is that the Vikings are 0-10 and allow 52 points per game. They did score pretty much every game but only 14 points per. So the Crusaders have to find some points and they score 26 points per game on the season. So if the Crusaders get to 30 they win easily if the Vikings slow them down they should score a couple times in this game and might find that first win. It looks like a nice playoff opener for the home squad though. Crusaders win this one handily, 34-8.
San Antonio Central Catholic @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The 2-8 Friars host the 3-7 Buttons in a match-up that makes up for its lack of wins with great mascot names. No Eagles and Lions to be found here. Bishop Lynch missed out a first round bye thanks to a 10-6 loss to TCA. They played a good Midland Christian team to a 5 point game. The Buttons really weren't close in their losses and have been outscored an average of 33-17 per game. Hard to see either team having much chance against St. Thomas in the Regional. So home team seems the pick here. Friars win 35-21.
Division II
Midland Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The best games of Division II always seem to be District 1 at District 2. Last year, the tri-champions of District 2 were completely wiped out by District 1. This season the eastern squads look a little better. The Cougars started 7-0 before falling in what was the district championship game to Frisco Legacy. At over 45 points per game the Mustang defense has a challenge ahead of it. MCS scored just 146 points in 8 games before posting 110 in the final two games against FWC and Southwest Christian. The Cougars allowed just 190 points total in 9 outings this season. The Mustangs had an undefeated Pleasant Grove squad chasing the game late before it got away from them late. The Cougars haven't performed well in the postseason, but maybe a home game here can turn the tide. Last year it was a 37-7 loss for the Cougars in Midland. Their last playoff win was in 2016 over FWC. I think the Mustangs have a good chance at the seeding upset here, but it is a long trip from the Tall City. Cougars outscore their problems this week, 44-38.
Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- Legacy deserves this spot in the picks even if it forces me into a battle of Eagles. Only Division II favorite Argyle Liberty bested Legacy in a 9-1 campaign. The Northern Eagles allowed just 98 points in their 9 wins making this a tough course for Southwest Christian. SCS finished the season 6-4 notably scoring a win over FWC for the 4th time in 5 years after losing 11 in a row to the Cardinals before that. Scoring just 18 points per game suggests this is not the Western Eagles day to fly. Can Southwest get it in gear this week? They probably need 35 to have a chance and only Liberty and Tyler Grace even scored 20 against Legacy. The home standing Eagles will keep District 2 from getting shut out this year. Legacy Christian wins 42-14.
Quick Hits: (Season: 82-28)
Division II
Fort Worth All Saints over Grapevine Faith Christian
Argyle Liberty Christian over Dallas Bishop Dunne
Austin Regents over The Woodlands Christian
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Austin Hyde Park
Houston Lutheran South over San Antonio Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Brownsville St. Joseph
Division IV
Shiner St. Paul over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Temple Central Texas Christian over Tyler T.K. Gorman
Houston Northland Christian over New Braunfels Christian
Muenster Sacred Heart over Tomball Rosehill Christian
Lubbock Christian over Fort Worth Mercy Culture
Bryan Brazos Christian over Waco Reicher
Just 2100 words this year. A bit tidier than 2022. I appreciate everyone for joining this journey, rather you're here every week or just once. Good luck on your road to State!