Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Week 2 Picks 2023

No big shockers in Week 1, but it just takes one surprise result to get everyone going. Some fun "cross-region" meetings on this weeks schedule. Good luck and safe travels.

This Week: (Week 1: 7-0)

Dallas Christian vs. Ouachita Christian (LA) @ Evangel Christian, Shreveport, LA -- The match of state champions between DC and Fort Bend Christian will have to wait for another year after the Chargers edged the Eagles 32-28 in Week 2 before both schools went on to the title. A new opponent for the long history of Charger football actually brings about some nostalgia, but yet another Eagles for the picks. Former coach of both schools, Larry Richmond, will be honored before the game. DC alum, Steven Fitzhugh, coaches the Eagles from Monroe, Louisiana. This should be a great matchup of State Champions. The Chargers won their 10th state title with the TAPPS Division III title last year. The Eagles won their 8th crown a season ago, taking the LHSAA Select Division IV championship. The Chargers opened the season with a dominant 48-0 win over Bishop Dunne. It wasn't a laugher, but it also was never particularly close. The Eagles will pose a tougher test, but this will be their first outing of the season. Ouachita Christian has lost just 5 games in the last 4 seasons. Previous teams suggest both teams will sport great defenses, but shouldn't struggle offensively either. The Eagles allowed more than 20 points just twice in 15 games a season ago. The Chargers allowed more than 20 points three times last year. One of those was just 21 and another was to the Division II state champions, Fort Bend Christian. Expect a tight contest here on the wider NFHS hashes used in the other 49 non-Texas states, but that won't change the loyalties of the author. Chargers win a nail biter, 22-20.

Austin Regents @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs made the first of many long trips on their 2022 schedule to Austin where they never found their offensive groove, falling 37-14 to the Knights. It was the start of a rocky 6-5 season for Coach Cunningham's first season in the Permian Basin. The Mustangs did score a playoff victory before a 1-point loss to FWC in Round 2. Expectations are always high for MCS, and they should be a little better positioned this year. This will be a tough home opener though. The Knights opened 2023 with a 45-14 win over San Antonio Central Catholic and will probably be primed for another run at the title. Regents hasn't lost a district game since 2015 and will be favored in that slate again this year. They haven't taken on many road trips like the trek to Midland though. If the MCS offense gets on track in 2023 they will be a factor in late November. Could even see a path where this is a state final preview. Lots of obstacles for both though before that. Based on last year, Regents should still be better however its certainly close and this space favors home teams. Mustangs with a minor upset win by finding their offense. MCS 42-35.

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Falcons visit the Tarrant County counterparts of last week's opponent, Dallas Christian. A new press box and stand adorn Barrow Field for this Cardinals home opener. Dunne was dominated by DC in Week 1, 48-0. The Cardinals comfortably dispatched Dublin, 36-13, to open the season. A year ago FWC traveled to Bishop Dunne and took a 34-19 triumph. The Cardinals figure to be about the same squad as 2022 while the early indications are the Falcons may have taken a step back from last year's District winning squad. Particularly with the game in North Richland Hills, Cardinals win handily 42-7.

Episcopal School of Dallas @ Argyle Liberty Christian-- The Warriors are an early possibility for the Division II title and dominating Prestonwood in the opener only further cements that status. Just 2 losses in 2022 for Liberty, but one of those was to ESD. The Eagles won a 20-17 game at home last year and started 6-0. After beating Bellaire Episcopal they figured to be in the SPC 4A title game, but after dropping back-to-back games to Kinkaid and St. Johns wound up outside the top 2 and with no shot at the title. Looking ahead to a revenge tour would probably be a bad move for the Eagles though. The Warriors look to be too much at home in 2023. Liberty wins 35-20.

Bellaire Episcopal @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The non-district murders row continues for Parish as the Knights travel north for a rematch of last season. It was a tough 0-1 start for the Panthers as Aledo was too much in a road contest. A late run closed the margin of defeat to 50-35. Never any shame in losing to Aledo, who has won 14 in a row including last year's state title. The Knights beat Livingston 44-21 to open the season 1-0 again. Episcopal was within 7 points of Parish last year, but the game was in Houston. I see the separation being a bit bigger this year with the game on the blue field. Panthers get back to even in 2023, win 38-16.

Houston Second Baptist @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The 3rd Eagles of this week's selections opened the first season under Coach Brydon with a 41-0 shutout of St. Pius. With the big win and a looming meeting with Division II champ Fort Bend Christian on the district schedule its all in front of Second Baptist this season. The Lions got off to a poor start in an odd game in Argyle in Week 1. The 48-19 defeat at the hands of Liberty Christian saw a late start due to the heat and power outage delay. The Lions chances never fared well with any of it in the opener. Week 2 at home seems to set up a bit better given the long trip up I-45 for the Eagles. Slowing down the Second Baptist offense has never been easy though. The Lions won a 31-27 in Houston last year, but the Week 1 showing leaves plenty of doubt. Look for a close one here again. Usually think home teams in close ones, so I'll go Prestonwood 33-30.

Wellington @ Lubbock Christian -- Our 4th Eagles of the week are the defending Division IV champions. Only Weatherford Christian blemished the Eagles in 2022 and they should be a good squad again in 2023. Lubbock Christian christens a new turf field with this year's home opener after a 30-20 victory of Austin Hyde Park. But they really made the picks this week because their opponent is the Skyrockets. Wellington reached the 4th round of the playoffs last year and seem to do that even in the season they don't win 13 games. Its a tough Week 2 game for the Eagles with the Skyrockets looking to avenge a 28-24 home defeat from 2022. Wellington opened the season much more convincingly than last season, 30-0 rather than 8-6. The Eagles were a little less impressive, 30-20 rather than 52-20. The Skyrockets look a little better and this means we'll pick no eagles to win in "This Week." Skyrockets win 28-20.

Quick Hits: (Week 1: 6-4)

The Woodlands John Cooper over Houston Cypress Christian
Bullard Brook Hill over Dallas Life Oak Cliff
Dallas Covenant over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Plano John Paul II
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Arlington Grace Prep
Fort Worth All Saints over Addison Trinity Christian
Arlington Oakridge over Frisco Legacy Christian
Tyler Grace Community over Wills Point
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Clarendon
Dallas St. Marks over Irving Cistercian

Saturday, August 26, 2023

Week 1 Results 2023

A fun opening week with nothing too crazy. Sure looks to be a great season ahead.

This Week:

Dallas Christian over Dallas Bishop Dunne (48-0) -- Correct
--Dominant opening victory for the Chargers. Falcons just never could get on track offensively.

Grapevine Faith Christian over Bullard Brook Hill (42-21) -- Correct
--Lions keep up the scoring against Brook Hill. Guard just unable to produce the big defensive stops against the top opposition again.

Aledo over Dallas Parish Episcopal (50-35) -- Correct
--The Bearcats were just too much at home. This certainly doesn't push the Panthers off the status of Division I favorites though.

Fort Worth All Saints over Fort Worth Nolan (55-7) -- Correct
--All Saints and Liberty looks to be quite the showdown ahead in district play. Vikings with an uphill climb ahead in Division I.

Fort Worth Christian over Dublin (36-13) -- Correct
--Cardinals with a tasteful opening victory, with DC, All Saints, and Liberty all to look forward to its a big season in NRH.

Hurst L.D. Bell over Dallas Bishop Lynch (36-14) -- Correct
--Another tough season opening loss for the Friars to L.D. Bell. Probably a tough uphill climb in Division I ahead.

Argyle Liberty Christian over Plano Prestonwood Christian (48-19) -- Correct
--Dominant performance for the Warriors as they look to be an early contender for the Division II crown. Lions with a tall task looking up at Parish in Division I.

Week 1: 7-0

Quick Hits:

Lubbock Trinity Christian over Albany (21-22) -- Correct
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over El Paso Cathedral (42-0) -- Correct
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Fort Worth Trinity Valley (7-44) -- Wrong
Tyler Grace Community over Winona (62-14) -- Correct
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Christian (16-35) -- Wrong
Austin Regents over San Antonio Central Catholic (45-14) -- Correct
Arlington Grace Prep over Arlington Oakridge (14-16) -- Wrong
Dallas St. Marks over Fort Worth Country Day (49-27) -- Correct
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Tomball Rosehill Christian (42-12) -- Correct
Bryan Brazos Christian over Dallas First Baptist (13-55) -- Wrong

Week 1: 6-4

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Week 1 Picks 2023

We open the 9th year of the weekly survey of Texas private school football contests. What you see in this space are the thoughts of the committee of 1. Certainly others thoughts are included in the weekly evaluations, but its really just me writing this each week. Plenty of places to find more readings and we'd love to have your thoughts on TAPPS, SPC, and few others over on the LSCSN message board https://lscsn.freeforums.net/. Readers of this space will know we have a few biases. You can certainly guess where my ties are based on some context clues, and unique mascots are always welcome. Eagles are usually cheered against, or least poked fun at. We've got 15 weeks to the finals in Waco and we'll try and pick every one of them. Feel free to give feedback in the comments or @Cav_0 on Twitter. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week:

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers crushed Division III opposition a year ago, securing a 24-0 victory over Cypress Christian in the title game. The lone blemish on a 12-1 campaign was a loss at Fort Worth Christian. That rematch will wait until Week 6 in Mesquite. This rematch sees a Falcons squad that improved a ton last season, sharing a district title. Last year Dunne fell behind quickly in their home opener, trailing 21-0 at the end of the 1st quarter. The Falcons won the final 3 quarters but lost the game 34-21. A 7-4 season saw the Dunne eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs by just a single point against the before mentioned Fort Worth Christian. Getting the offense going against a DC defense that allowed just 13 points in the playoffs last season will be the challenge for Bishop Dunne. The Chargers are certainly favorites again, but a new season always brings new challenges. I'll say the heat leads to a slow start for everyone, but a tidy victory for the Chargers. DC wins 30-7.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Guard and Lions have met just 3 times, but those meetings are each of the last 3 years. Faith has taken all three meetings, with last year's matchup seeing a 40 point 2nd half for the Lions and a 40 point victory. That game was in Bullard and the Guard must traverse the road to Grapevine this year. Brook Hill has struggled to score in the meetings with Faith, averaging just 14 points across the 3 meetings. The Guard finished 6-6 last year but did win a road playoff game over Lake Country Christian. Just never able to secure the stops against the big time opponents, allowing 60+ 3 times. The Lions finished 6-5, sharing the district title. They fell at home in the playoff opener though to Fort Worth All Saints. Faith seems pretty certain to score 30+ in this one based on recent history. If the Brook Hill offense can get on track early they'll have a chance at a road upset and maybe point toward the district meetings with Covenant and DC. Lions win at home 35-14.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Aledo -- The four-time reigning champions in Division I will see one of the strongest non-district schedules ever played by a TAPPS member...well since they played it last year. The Panthers haven't lost to a TAPPS opponent since the final week of the 2020 regular season. Each championship season saw one defeat and the Panthers have yet to achieve an undefeated season in program history. UIL power Aledo opens the slate, after The Bearcats dropped a 24-17 decision at Parish last year. Aledo opened 0-2 before winning 14 in a row and claiming a 5A state title. This should be another classic, the Parish offense should lead the TAPPS charge again, but this is a tall task. On the road, I don't think the Panthers have enough. Aledo wins 30-27 (which I picked last year, so maybe not...)

Fort Worth Nolan @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The battle of Fort Worth returns for another season. This time matching a semi-finalist in Division I (Nolan) and a state runner-up in Division II (All Saints). The home standing Vikings won last year's opener 37-21, a pick a missed by just 2 points. After that it was a slog of a season for Nolan, losing 7 in a row. The playoffs hit and the Vikings found their stride winning 2 playoff rounds and finishing with a curious record of 4-9. The Saints ran off 3 playoff wins, including a road win in Round 1, before falling to Fort Bend Christian in the title game. This should be a close one and much like last year, I think you go home teams in close early season matchups. Saints secure the opener, 28-21.

Fort Worth Christian @ Dublin -- The Cardinals travel abroad to Dublin...wait I'm told not that Dublin. A season ago, the Cardinals dominated the Lions 61-23. That started a big non-district season and a 5-0 start. The district slate did not go as well, with just a 1-3 mark. The playoff rebound though was 2 wins by 2 total points before falling to All Saints in the semifinals. The Lions were coming off a 3rd playoff appearance but sputtered to just 2-8 and 0-5 in district play. Dublin should be a bit better this year, but still too big a hill to climb in this opener. The Thursday start might make things a little weird, but Cardinals win comfortably, 40-14.

Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Hurst L.D. Bell -- Scheduling the Blue Raiders gets you into the picks. It became clear it would be a long season on Ferguson Rd. when L.D. Bell bested the Friars by 44 in the opener. The Friars finished the year with just a single win, but doubled that total in the playoffs by taking out Central Catholic. With just 4 wins in the last 2 regular seasons, but 3 playoff wins, it seems the Friars are slow starters. The Blue Raiders 6 wins in 2022 was their most since 2013. They could not climb that Euless Trinity mountain again. This should be closer than 2022, but the Blue Raiders should win at home. The Lynch defense needs to improve to have a different season than a year ago. L.D. Bell wins 42-21.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Warriors seem to be the consensus pick to step forward in 2023. Of course a step forward from 10-2, 2nd round playoffs, district champion is just a about title favorite. Liberty went to Plano and never allowed the Lions an inch, with a dominant defensive performance. The Lions lost that one 28-7, but won their next 8 before falling to Parish Episcopal twice and finishing 9-3. A new season means new teams and new problems. Both offenses should be improved from a year ago, but after winning on the road in 2022 Liberty has to be the pick in 2023. Warriors win 42-28.

Quick Hits:

Lubbock Trinity Christian over Albany
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over El Paso Cathedral
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Fort Worth Trinity Valley
Tyler Grace Community over Winona
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Christian
Austin Regents over San Antonio Central Catholic
Arlington Grace Prep over Arlington Oakridge
Dallas St. Marks over Fort Worth Country Day
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Tomball Rosehill Christian
Bryan Brazos Christian over Dallas First Baptist
 

Historical Results:
2015: 94-16
2016: 79-25
2017: 78-32
2018: 88-22
2019: 89-21
2020: 64-23
2021: 85-29
2022: 81-31

Quick Hits:
2015: 60-15
2016: 103-26
2017: 101-29
2018: 102-28
2019: 103-27
2020: 77-23
2021: 105-25
2022: 96-34