Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Week 10 Picks 2019

The playoff formats for this year rob us of some of the stretch drama, but there is still plenty to learn as we start the biggest month of high school football. Can anyone push TCCH off the top? Are Parish and Nolan clearly the best in Division I or will someone have a playoff turnaround? Just 2 of many questions to be answered in the last 6 weeks.

This Week: (Season: 52-15)

Dallas Christian @ McKinney Christian -- The Chargers fell for the 4th straight time in the showdown with TCCH. The DC offense has repeatedly struggled in these matchups yielding scores of 14, 0, 16, and 16. While the DC defense has done a decent job limiting the Tigers, not stopping them by any means but not getting run over like so many have. The DC offense will need to find top form in the next few weeks if there is to be a rematch and any chance of a reversal. The Mustangs have improved in their 2nd season in Division II, but it has turned tough sledding in recent weeks. A 4-0 start has given way to 4-4. They turned a 54 point showing by Tyler Grace in 2018 into just 33 this year. The Mustangs however, failed to score in the last two weeks against Brook Hill and TCCH. The Chargers need a good offensive showing to start to build toward the playoffs. DC wins 38-7.

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Tigers defense squashed DC at most every corner last week in securing their most important win of the season so far. DC did close to 20-16 after the 1st play of the 2nd half, but the Tigers swamped the Chargers from that point forward. In some ways the Tigers have looked a bit more vulnerable this season. In others, the Tigers have been more impressive. The blowouts of Melissa and Cornerstone most notably. The Cougars have not really looked great in their 5-3 season so far. Allowing too many points on too many occasions has been the biggest problem for the Cougars. Honestly, if Grace can only hold Brook Hill to 33 then I'm not sure how they slow down TCCH. Tigers win handily, 40-12.

Carrollton Prince of Peace @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals were blanked in the 2nd half against Frisco Legacy last week to fall to 1-1 in district play. FWC concludes its run of 3 district games against Eagles with what has become the most important given the loss to Legacy. A win will put the Cardinals in the playoffs with a chance to move into the top 2 with a win over Faith next week. A loss may put the Cardinals on the outside of the playoffs completely. The Eagles suffered a 20 point defeat against Southwest last week. The same squad that FWC beat 19-16 two weeks before. The Eagles have been making strides in the right direction, but still struggle to get over the hump in Division II. Last year's match went in the Cardinals favor 47-8. Though the Cardinals may be a little down from a season ago, I don't see a 39 point turnaround here. FWC wins 38-16.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- The Lions figured to be a leading contender for District 1 and have not disappointed so far. At 6-1 with the only loss being to Canadian, a UIL power. The Faith offense has scored 35 or more in 5 of their 7 outings thus far. This will be a very difficult test for the Eagles. Southwest needs a win to avoid a 1st round clash with TCCH, certainly something everyone in District 1 will want to avoid. The Eagles dropped a tight game with Legacy two weeks ago, falling 38-34. Its not an encouraging sign for them that the same Legacy squad did not manage a point against Faith. If Faith reaches their usual 35 then I can't see Southwest closing the gap enough to turn a 48-7 decision from a year ago. Lions win 40-14.

Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions have met every challenge as the defending state champion, putting up bundles of points in the last 4 weeks particularly. Perhaps Parish scoring 24 last week is sign of weakness, but more likely its just that they are one of the best opponents seen thus far and Prestonwood still held all the cards in the result. The Friars are probably a better squad than a 3-4 record would suggest, given the largest margin of defeat on the year is 8. The dominant win over Nolan on Oct. 5 suggests that the top 4 teams in District 2 might all win District 1. The Friars defense is probably the best the Lions have seen in a while, and maybe even the best of the season. A trip to Roffino Stadium makes this a little more difficult for the Lions, but I think they'll still get over the hump to 9-0. Another close loss for the Friars 35-21.

Trinity Christian - Addison @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Trojans actually had one of the better games played against Prestonwood this year, but its come undone in a bad way since, winning just once in eight tries. The Warriors are out at 4-4, but have won big district games the last two times out. A win here would assure Liberty of the 2nd slot in District 1 and they'll be heavily favored to achieve that. The usually strong Liberty defense has been showing weakness in recent weeks, allowing 34 and 36 in their last 2. The Warriors won both games though. In simpler terms, Liberty beat All Saints 49-36 while TCA lost 20-7. Warriors win on the road, 35-21.

Plano John Paul II @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Cardinals are still in the middle of their best season in school history. Breaking the decade long district losing streak has to be a weight off the Cardinals. This is a stiff ask for John Paul though taking on the highly ranked Panthers. Parish has already notched notable victories over TCCH, Bishop Dunne, and Bishop Lynch on the season. Their lone loss is a bit of a head scratcher given the struggles All Saints had against teams Parish dominated. The Panthers can secure the district title and 1st round bye with a win this week before finishing the season against San Antonio Cornerstone. Only All Saints has held the Panthers under 30 points. John Paul shouldn't get totally destroyed, but on the road I'm not sure how they stop the Parish attack. The Cardinals will attempt to reverse a 49-28 decision from a year ago, and give them their own chance at a district title. Not enough this year for the Cardinals. Panthers win 42-20.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Fort Worth Nolan -- The Vikings are the lone private school undefeated in the DFW area and would virtually assure themselves of the top spot in District 1 with a win. The Saints scored the huge upset of Parish in their 3rd game but then suffered some injuries and struggled in losses to Dunne and Prestonwood. All Saints only bested winless TCA by 3 before seeming to regain form in a 45-7 blowout of Liberty. The Vikings are coming off a 28-13 win out on the Permian Basin that included a scoreless 2nd half. Nolan's defense has been the strong unit, only allowing 20 points once in 8 games. That game was still a 48 point Vikings win. If the Saints can manage 28 points they may can keep the Vikings offense off the field enough to spring the upset, but that is a tough ask for the team that scored just 2 against Bishop Dunne. With the game at home, I suspect Nolan gets to 9-0 leaving only a winless squad between them and an undefeated regular season. Vikings win 35-14.

Quick Hits: (Season: 72-18)

Bullard Brook Hill over Houston Pro-Vision Academy
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin Hyde Park
Austin Regents over Austin St. Michael's
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Cypress Christian
San Antonio Central Catholic over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Austin Texas School for the Deaf over Waco Reicher
Shiner St. Paul over Hallettsville Sacred Heart
Arlington Grace Prep over Tyler All Saints
Episcopal School of Dallas over Dallas St. Marks
Fort Worth Country Day over Fort Worth Trinity Valley

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Week 9 Picks 2019

Just three weeks remain in the regular season. The weather has begun to turn, it might not rain this week, times are good in Texas. Good luck and safe travels.

This Week: (Season: 48-12)

Dallas Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- TCCH continues to be the dominant force in Division II this season. The Week 2 OT loss to Parish has done nothing to stop the thinking that this is a coronation tour for the Tigers. For the 2nd straight year DC enters this matchup at 7-0. Through 6 weeks DC really lacked a signature win, but beating Plano John Paul II looks better every week and last week's OT victory over San Antonio Cornerstone is probably DC's best win since a 2017 playoff win over Fort Worth Christian. That season ended in a TCCH defeat in the semis. The Tigers have maybe been slightly less impressive than a year ago. A chunk of that can be attributed to the quality opposition though. The 41 point destruction of Melissa and the 24-0 halftime lead over Cornerstone suggests that the Tigers have plenty in the tank though. The Chargers do not really have that blowout of a top flight opponent. DC will have to score to get the upset of the defending state champions. The team that buried Cornerstone's offense for 30 minutes might be able to keep the game in range, but its still going to need an offensive performance to pair with it. Maybe a little muddy conditions will slow the Tigers, but its going to difficult to reverse last year's 37-16 win TCCH took in Mesquite. I'm sure most readers understand the policy of the picks column. Chargers with a shocker 28-27.

McKinney Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard secured a big district win over Tyler Grace last week. Scoring the presumed upset for a 2nd straight year. Reaching 1-1 in district sets up the Guard to clinch a playoff spot with a win over McKinney Christian. The Mustangs will likely need a win to have a chance to reach the playoffs. A 4-0 start for the Mustangs showed promise, but will likely be a building block for next year. MCA lost their district opener at Tyler Grace 33-12 and Brook Hill turned around next week and bested the same Tyler Grace squad. It is difficult to see the Mustangs traveling into the Piney Woods and stealing this road win. Its been a season of improvement for the Mustangs, but the road likely ends here. The Guard will need a good outing, but a game like they played last week against Grace should be enough. Brook Hill wins 35-18.

Fort Worth Christian @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- The Cardinals travel up north to Frisco to match with the Eagles. Its been more a struggle this year in North Richland Hills as the FWC is just 4-3 after reaching the state semifinals last year. In fairness though, they were 4-3 at this point last year. Though they had not suffered the blowout defeats that have plagued them this year. Also, the Cardinals were coming off scoring 40 points against Southwest while this year they managed just 19. The Eagles have had an improved season entering at 6-2 improving on last season's 5-5 campaign. The change in bracketing putting 4 district 1 teams in the playoffs this year means the Eagles are in the playoffs with a win this week. Legacy bested one of their Eagle counterparts at Southwest Christian last week 38-34. The improved offense gives the Eagles a real chance to win this one especially at home. However, things like allowing 42 points to Colleyville Covenant does not inspire confidence. I would say if FWC scores in the 30s they will win, but I think Legacy topples them this time. Eagles win at home 28-21.

Austin Regents @ Austin Brentwood Christian -- The Bears have put together a 2nd straight nice season, entering this one at 7-1. Brentwood blew out St. Michael's in their district opener for the 2nd year in a row. The Bears have not had a victory over a program with the pedigree of Regents though. The Knights are the usual stalwart in District 3 having complied a 6-1 record already. The lone blemish was a home loss to FW All Saints who went on to beat Parish Episcopal this season. All Saints is one of only 2 opponents to reach double figures against the Regents defense. Brentwood should stand a good chance at being a bit closer with the game at home, but reversing last year's 34-7 defeat to a victory is a tall task. The lack of a wild card point spot in this year's playoffs makes this a big swing game as both teams will face must wins next week with a loss. However, the Bears will be happy not to have to face TCCH in Round 1 if they make the playoffs. Regents has enough to secure a road win, 26-14.

Fort Worth Nolan @ Midland Christian -- Last year I anticipated MCS reaching this one at 8-0 setting up a virtual district title game and they fell to Liberty at home. This year, the Mustangs are just 5-3 but pounded Liberty in Argyle. The Vikings have pretty quietly raced to 7-0 and will want to put themselves in prime position for that district title. No 1st round bye on offer this year, but many coaches prefer it that way. Nolan enters off a bye week and having just held Lynch and Liberty to 20 total points between them. To be totally honest, if this game were in Fort Worth I would take Nolan to keep the train rolling without too much difficulty. That the game is out west gives me pause. The metroplex teams are certainly less experienced with the longer travel a trip to Midland entails. Surprisingly a non-district schedule that includes Celina is likely the easier lead up to this one. MCS has faced a little more consistent challenge in the early season that should prepare them well for a stiff defense like the Vikings bring. I expect this to be close, but I don't see the Mustangs reversing last year's 42-13 defeat all the way. Vikings win 28-16.

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- Bishop Dunne and John Paul got to be the first teams in TAPPS to see the NCAA rule change beyond the 5th OT with the Falcons taking an 11OT loss at home. The Falcons head to Roffino Stadium to a see a Bishop Lynch team that has been in a bit of a transition. A 3-1 start with the only loss a tight 16-13 defeat against TCCH to open the season has given way to a 3 game losing streak with allowances of 50, 37, and 54 on defense. After scoring 35 points in the defeat against Cornerstone, Nolan and Parish routed the Friars with Lynch scoring just 20 points between the two games. The Falcons defense seemed to be ramping up to "Red Swarm" form before seeing Parish and John Paul score 37 each. John Paul's total is slightly inflated given the OT nature of the game, but still not the defensive power the 2018 champions held. All of Division I is really just a prelude to the playoffs since all 15 schools are in already. The Friars have a chance with the game at home, but I'm not sure they can post enough points against the Falcons. Dunne held Cornerstone to 26 in San Antonio a much better performance than Dunne managed. Falcons win on the road, 22-14.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions have turned into a more run heavy squad with a greater emphasis placed on defense in this year's 6-1 start. Prestonwood has yet to be bested by a team from Texas, including 3 Division I wins in the last 3 weeks where they held the opposition to 0, 17, and 10 points. The bye week and a home game sets the Lions up well for a big district game this week. Parish flopped against All Saints in Week 4, but still has a 6-1 record into the district home stretch. The Panthers have been the high flying offense including boatracing Bishop Lynch last week 54-14. The game should hinge on the Panther offense against the Lion defense. Prestonwood should manage a reasonable 3 to 4 touchdowns as they have most weeks, but if Parish is scoring in the 30s they will have a tough time keeping up. I'll take the Lions to make it happen on defense this week, but the Panthers are not going to be an easy out. This seems like a matchup that might set up for a reversal in the playoffs. Lions get a 4th straight district win over Parish. Prestonwood squeaks by 24-21.

Quick Hits: (Season: 63-17)

Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Carrollton Prince of Peace
Austin St. Michael's over Austin Hyde Park
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Westbury Christian
Victoria St. Joseph over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
Fort Worth All Saints over Argyle Liberty Christian
San Antonio Antonian over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Dallas Shelton School over Arlington Pantego Christian
Lubbock Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Fort Worth Trinity Valley over Irving Cistercian
Katy St. John XXIII over Tyler T.K. Gorman

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Week 8 Picks 2019

District races are heating up, particularly in Division I. We seem to have escaped the heat at last and we haven't needed the boats to account for the flood of last season. Good luck all and safe travels.

This Week: (Season: 43-10)

San Antonio Cornerstone Christian @ Dallas Christian -- T.K. Gorman's departure from District 2 opened up the schedules for both TCCH and DC, and the Warriors have moved in. Cornerstone slid into several open slots in the schedule across the major DFW districts. The Warriors have already bested both Bishop Dunne and Bishop Lynch this season, including scoring 50 in their visit to Roffino Stadium. The Chargers have started with their usual strong opening, notching their first district win last week over Brook Hill to reach 6-0. It was a slower offensive performance for the Chargers, posting just 21 points. DC will likely need a much stronger performance from the offensive side of the ball this week. The DC defense has led the charge again, allowing more than 7 points only twice in 6 games and just 43 points total. The Warriors will be the best of the opposition thus far, and it will just ramp up further next week in the road trip to Cedar Hill. This is definitely a tough game for the Chargers, but they do get it at home as the Warriors make their 1st ever visit to the narrow sidelines of Wheeler Field. Long time readers will now who is getting picked here. Chargers win 20-18.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars scored a district opening win over McKinney Chrsitian, 33-12. While not a laugher by any stretch, Grace was never in great jeopardy of losing. With TKG's departure, the Cougars get a 4 game district slate that includes 3 home games. Grace's only road trip will be to DC in Week 11. If the Cougars can win here it figures to set up that final game to be a battle for 2nd place and home field in round 1 of the playoffs. Both teams enter with two losses on the season, with the Guard opening district last week in a 21-3 home loss against DC. The Guard can quickly reenter the fray with a road win to match last season's 31-28 upset of the Cougars. The offense for the Guard will need to regain its non-district form as it seems very unlikely they can win with the 3 they managed against DC. The Cougars offense has put up total of 46, 70, 42, and 49 this season while the defense has struggled against the better opposition. Center's posting of 63 points is particularly concerning since Grace scored 49 of their own. The Guard are going to be close, but I think are headed toward a winner take all with McKinney Christian for the final playoff spot in District 2. Cougars win at home 35-27.

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ McKinney Christian -- The Mustangs are much improved from a season ago, but have dropped their last 2 outings after a 4-0 start. Last week's district opener was much more competitive for McKinney Christian despite having to travel to Tyler. Its a little odd, but the Mustangs might look past TCCH to next week's matchup with Brook Hill given the likely long odds they face in this one. The Tigers are the back-to-back champions of Division II and had one of the state's longest win streaks before falling to Parish Episcopal in OT earlier this season. TCCH racked up 49, 48, and 50 points in consecutive outings before rain limited them to just 24 against Cornerstone last week when the game was stopped at halftime. The Tigers would need a incredible series of bad luck to be challenged in this one. TCCH wins 51-6.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Friars have been stung by two straight losses after posting 3 consecutive wins to level their record at 3-3. It was a tough opening for Lynch starting with TCCH, but they would have liked to perform better against Cornerstone and potential playoff opponent FW Nolan. The Friars have struggled to put together good games on both sides of the ball simultaneously. They held TCCH to just 16, but scored only 13 of their own. They posted 35 against Cornerstone, but allowed 50. Even in wins over Ennis and Frisco Centennial the defense struggled allowing 34 and 38 respectively. The Panthers scored the huge season opening win over TCCH on ESPN2 but then fell to FW All Saints just two weeks later. Blowout wins over Division II opponents are good, but they really cemented themselves in the upper tier of Division I by besting Bishop Dunne last week 37-14. The most points Dunne has allowed to a TAPPS opponent since St. Pius eliminated them in the 2017 playoffs. I think the Parish offense is the key to this one, if the Panthers can score 35 or more I can't see the Friars being able to outscore them. I think they will do that, Panthers win 42-28.

Plano John Paul II @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- This the best Cardinals team in school history. Unfortunately for them that is more a statement about the past of the Cardinals program than the current team. John Paul II has made massive strides under Coach Teague especially consider the depths of 34 losses in a row. JP2 was beaten just 22-10 last week against Prestonwood and the offense has posted several impressive outings earlier in the season. The Falcons will be looking to recover from the district opening loss against Parish, but simply must improve on offense to be a real contender this season in Division I. Their defense can take them a long way (all the way to a title in 2018), but it does not appear they are quite as dominant as last year's team. The Cardinals will be limited by the Falcons defense for sure, given the 14 points scored against DC and the 10 managed against Prestonwood. If Dunne can reach 20 it should have a handy victory, but if the offense goes missing again it could be an upset. Dunne takes it at home, 28-18.

Carrollton Prince of Peace @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- One of the many Division II District 1 teams named Eagles travels to Grapevine to take on the Lions. The run heavy attack the Eagles feature has gained them a 4 game win streak, but they've yet to take on a Division II opponent this season. The depth issue has always been a major concern for POP, and I fear this year will be no different. This is a huge opprutunity to announce themselves as a contender for one of the home playoff games and avoid the trip to Cedar Hill. The Lions have been a strong contender for a number of seasons and are the last school not named Trinity Christian to win the Division II title. Only UIL stalwart Canadian has been able to fell the Tigers in 2019 and it might be easy for Faith to look ahead to the expected showdown with Fort Worth Christian for the district title. I think Prince of Peace has made progress this year, but not enough to really threaten the Lions. Faith wins 49-20.

Midland Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The longtime foes head to Argyle to renew the rivalry. The two have played at seemingly every stadium in Denton and Midland Counties. What is now the UNT soccer field hosted maybe the most famous meeting (Link, though we should note MCS won the rematch that year). The most famous message board game, known as "Showergate," was at Bronco Stadium in Denton. The Mustangs have posted home wins over LCS on campus at Awtry Field, at Grande Communications Stadium, and at least one more stadium in the Permian Basin. The Mustangs entered this matchup a year ago at 7-0, but this season has been a different challenge with MCS at just 4-3. However, the three losses have been by 16 total points. This week and next with Nolan will decide the Mustangs location in the playoff bracket and rather they will start at home or with a bus ride. TCA will likely be 5th in District 1, but the other 4 spots seem up for grabs right now, the winner here will have a big leg up. The Warriors have notched just 2 wins in 7 outings, and have really struggled on defense. Liberty has allowed 40 points in 5 games thus far. A big contribution to a 2-5 start. Nolan held the Liberty offense in check after the Warriors blasted Hyde Park with 51. If the Warriors can not get to 30 they will have a hard time outscoring MCS. if the Mustangs can turn the close games in their favor going down the stretch they will be a big challenge for anyone in November. Its a long trip, but if anyone knows how to travel it's the Mustangs. MCS wins 35-21.

Quick Hits: (Season: 54-16)

Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Austin Regents over Austin Hyde Park
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin St. Michael's
San Antonio Holy Cross over San Antonio Christian
Houston Lutheran South over Victoria St. Joseph
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Houston Cypress Christian
Fort Worth All Saints over Trinity Christian - Addison
Houston St. Pius X over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Dallas Shelton over Arlington Grace Prep

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Week 7 Picks 2019

District play is here for most, with a few non-district tilts mixed in. Definitely our biggest week thus far as the contenders begin to face each other.

This Week: (Season: 37-9)

Dallas Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Chargers enter the district slate with a 5-0 record and coming off a bye week. The Guard will enter this one at 4-1 coming off back to back shutouts by a combined margin of 99 points. The challenge for Brook Hill will be posting a lofty score against the DC defense that has allowed no more than 14 points in any game thus far. In common opponents both teams played Plano John Paul II, Brook Hill dropping a 42-10 decision and DC winning at home 25-14. This is not the biggest test on the Chargers remaining schedule, but it could certainly be a stumbling block. This upset could very quickly vault Brook Hill into the ranks of looking for a home playoff game and the game is in Bullard. The Chargers should take this road victory, but nothing comes easy in district road games. DC wins 35-21.

San Antonio Cornerstone Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Warriors have run quite the gauntlet to reach 6-0, scoring wins over Dunne, Lynch, and MCS in consecutive weeks. The Tigers may be the toughest opposition among them, given their win over Lynch as well. This game probably deserves top billing this week, but I have a reputation to uphold with that spot. The Warriors also posted a blowout win over Fort Worth Christian earlier in the season. TCCH is of course the 2-time defending state champion only losing to Parish in OT during the last two seasons. The challenge in this game is the stark contrast of the two teams games against Bishop Lynch. The Tigers took a defensive 16-13 victory. The Warriors outran the Friars 50-35, and they both did it at Bishop Lynch. The Tigers haven't felt quite as dominant this season, but still appear to be the class of Division II. I'm not sure how to pick this one, so when in doubt pick the home team. This should be a close one, Tigers win 28-20.

McKinney Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- As a new entrant to Division II, 2018 was a tough season for the Mustangs finishing just 2-7. This season started much improved at 4-0, including turning around 34 point loss to Valley View to a 32 point win. MCA posted over 40 points in each of their first three victories, before a hot 30-21 afternoon win over Colleyville Covenant. However, in the Mustangs last outing they were routed by Plano John Paul II 50-6. The Cougars make for an interesting district opener given the number of points allowed this season, including 63 to Center and 38 to Redwater. Last week the Cougars traveled to Houston to take a 1 point victory in a bog over Pro-Vision Academy. Both teams very much need this win to set up possible matches with DC for a home playoff game, without this win and given TK Gorman's withdrawal from District 2 there is no real path to the top 2. If the Mustangs offense can get in gear they should have a chance to reverse last year's 54-18 drubbing. McKinney Christian is clearly better this season and should continue to progress toward competing in Division II, but I don't think they're quite up to that level yet. Cougars win 42-21.

Trinity Christian - Addison @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs are smarting a bit about being just 3-3 at this point, losing games by 7, 6, and 3. The next two weeks are presumably precursors to the expected showdowns with Nolan and All Saints that we anticipate will decide District 1. Longtime rival Liberty is certainly no pushover looming next week either. The Mustangs should be heavily favored in this one at home in Permian Basin. The have to be so favored given the Trojans have won just 3 games since the start of 2017, and enter this one at 0-6. TCA won its opener with Coach Singletary to start the 2018 season and have lost 16 straight since then. The Trojans slate in District 1 is not the group you want to try and find your footing against. TCA has held just 1 opponent out of 6 under 40 points, and though the offense did find some form with 30 points last week I can't see them having anywhere close to enough to travel west and steal a victory. Mustangs win 45-16.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Fort Worth Nolan -- It was an unpleasant 0-4 start for the Warriors before rebounding to beat China Spring in a 58-56 shootout and then blow out Hyde Park 52-0 last week. The Liberty squad is probably better than 2-4 would suggest, but the Vikings will pose a significant challenge. Defense has been a significant problem for the Warriors, allowing over 40 points in 4 of 6 outings. Nolan has opened at 6-0 scoring over 35 points in 5 of the 6 contests. Only Celina was able to slow the Vikings over an entire game, though they still fell on the losing side to Nolan. Last week's 37-6 defeat of Bishop Lynch only cemented the Vikings status as a contender in Division I. Only 2 opponents have reached 20 against the Vikings, and one of those was still a 48 point win. Last season the Vikings traveled to Argyle and posted a 49-21 win. The Warriors quality play against Prestonwood suggests they should be very competitive this year, but I doubt they have enough to get over the hump this year. Vikings win at home 33-17.

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Panthers had been in a down cycle before posting 10 wins a season ago. They followed that up by opening this season with an OT win over TCCH. 2 weeks later the Panthers dropped a surprising decision to All Saints. The Falcons Red Swarm defense took them to the state title last year, allowing 20 points only once in 14 games. The Panthers were the only ones to reach 20, in a 31-20 semifinal loss. Earlier the Falcons posted a 16-7 home victory over the Panthers. This season has been a little choppier for Dunne having been blown out by Desoto and dropping a road contest to SA Cornerstone. However, the Red Swarm responded holding All Saints to 2 and St. Pius to 8. I doubt the Falcons will score a ton against a really good Panthers team, so I can't see this one not being close. If Parish can score 25+ on the Red Swarm (more than 40 and we'll take that name away from them), they should win particularly at home. I'm going to say the defense wins this for the Falcons. Dunne wins 25-18.

Lubbock Christian @ Flower Mound Coram Deo -- The Eagles earn this spot in the picks thanks to a 6-0 start so good that MaxPreps is giving them credit for the Tulia win twice. That win last week was the first close test for Lubbock Christian after posting at least 45 points in each of their first 5 wins. The Lions have put together a few strong seasons ending last season with 11 wins and a state semifinal appearance. This season has been more of a struggle following an 0-3 start. The Lions have rebounded with 2 wins in the last 3 weeks, but have allowed a bunch of points this season in some close losses. I suspect that Coram Deo will post some points, but will be able to slow the Eagles enough to win. Lubbock Christian wins a road test, 42-28.

Quick Hits: (Season: 47-13)

Grapevine Faith Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Central Catholic
San Antonio Holy Cross over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Houston Lutheran South over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
The Woodlands Christian over Houston Lutheran North
Austin Brentwood Christian over Shiner St. Paul
Dallas Covenant over Temple Central Texas Christian
Episcopal School of Dallas over Austin Saints

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Week 6 Picks 2019

A little slower getting these out this week, but we press on toward district play.
 
This Week: (Season: 30-9)

San Antonio Holy Cross @ Austin Regents -- The Knights are destined to win this one, ok I had to make that joke. Regents has dominated this series in recent days having won 7 times in the last 4 seasons. The capital city residents posted a 38-14 win over Wimberly last week and are 4-1 on the season with two shutouts. Holy Cross opened at 2-0 including a win over long time rival Central Catholic. The Alamo city residents dropped 2 before dominating Austin St. Michael's last week. The Holy Cross defense hasn't been as strong as the Regents defense but has likely seen the better opposition. This should be a low scoring game, and probably a playoff preview. Regents wins at home, 28-14.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Austin Hyde Park -- The Warriors had a miserable 0-4 start before posting a 58-56 win over China Spring last week. Its been quite a schedule that Liberty has faced and allowing 56 points to China Spring doesn't instill great confidence. That they had Prestonwood on the ropes a couple weeks ago does. The Warriors should not be an easy out when the playoffs roll around, but need to start finding ways to win. The Panthers are an excellent choice to find the win column again having started 0-4 and managing no more than 7 points in each of their last 3 losses. The visit to the Quarries should prove fruitful for the Warriors. Liberty dominates 42-7.

Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Fort Worth Nolan -- Last year I started this game preview with, "The Vikings were less talked about as a state title contender entering the year." This year we started very much the same way and Nolan is once again 5-0. The Friars are just 3-2 but with losses to TCCH and San Antonio Cornerstone there is certainly no reason to write them off. 35 points was not enough to get past Cornerstone last week while holding TCCH to 16 was not enough to get that win. Wins over Ennis and Frisco Centennial certainly cause optimism for the Friars fans. Nolan's wins over Celina and blowing out Kinkaid are cause for Vikings fans optimism. It will be interesting to match up Districts 1 and 2 in this one for some playoff comparisons. The Vikings defense should give them an upper hand at home, but it should be a tightly contested game. If Bishop Lynch can get to 30 points I think they win this, but I do not think they will get there. Vikings win 27-20.

Houston St. Pius X @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Panthers could not find the scoring areas last week against Prestonwood, falling 12-0. The offense has usually been the calling card for the Panthers, but a 1-4 start has been the result of some struggling on offense. The Red Swarm defense awoke last week holding Fort Worth All Saints to just 2. After getting blown out by Desoto and dropping a tight one to San Antonio Cornerstone it put the Falcons back in the win column. Given the direct comparison with district rival Prestonwood this is a big game for Dunne. Its also an interesting pairing of two of the last schools in Division I still playing on grass. The Falcons have to be favored here, but will want to see some offensive surge to feel good moving into district play. Falcons win 28-7.

Midland Christian @ San Antonio Cornerstone Christian -- The Mustangs have a trip to San Antonio to take on the Warriors. Cornerstone has a notable schedule this year with seemingly every contender in Division I and II on the schedule, and are off to a 5-0 start including wins over both Dunne and Lynch. MCS blowout of FWC puts them firmly on the list of contenders, but this is stiff ask. No shame in losing to state contender Wall, but only scoring 14 makes you wonder how many they can manage against the Warriors. If MCS can get the offense in gear they could score enough to win, but I expect the Warriors to post at least 35 points. Cornerstone wins at home 38-20.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Panthers landed a huge victory over TCCH on national TV and then failed to consolidate that by losing to All Saints. All Saints lost to Bishop Dunne and also apparently is down a QB. Parish blew out TCA last week to get back in the win column. The Cardinals reached the state semifinals last year and are off to a decent 3-2 start this year. However, the two losses were big blowouts by San Antonio Cornerstone and Midland Christian. That certainly would seem to make it difficult for the Cardinals in the late stages of the playoffs. So far this year, FWC has struggled to score against the best defenses and it would seem this will be another of that class. The Panthers offense should find things a bit tougher than they did against TCA or Tyler Grace, but I doubt it will be enough for the Cardinals to stay in touch. Panthers win 35-10.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions struggled to get by Argyle Liberty a couple weeks ago and scored just 12 at St. Pius last week. Now the defense responded in Houston with a shutout, but with St. Pius struggling to start the year it makes us wonder a bit about Prestonwood's chances at the top of District 2 and 1st round bye. The Saints scored a massive victory with the upset of Parish, and the win over Regents isn't bad either. The Saints offense though appears to have been bitten by the injury bug and failed to score against Bishop Dunne last week. This will probably be a close game, but I could also see the Lions offense having a breakout game. Probably winds up close at the end though. Lions win 21-14.

Quick Hits: (Season: 38-12)

Carrollton Prince of Peace over Texas School for the Deaf
Austin Brentwood Christian over Yorktown
Plano John Paul II over Trinity Christian - Addison
Houston Kinkaid over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Houston St. Thomas over China Spring
Cameron Yoe over Katy St. John XXIII
Dallas Shelton over Frisco Legacy Christian
Fort Worth Country Day over Austin Saints
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Dallas 1st Baptist
Boerne Geneva over Shiner St. Paul