Saturday, December 19, 2020

Final Results 2020

Division I State Championship: Dallas Parish Episcopal over Fort Worth Nolan (42-28) -- Correct
--I had a summary typed at 35-14, and then Nolan scored twice more in rapid succession and almost brought it all the way back. Parish was the favorite at the start of the year even if it took some twists and turns. Back to back champions. Congrats to the Panthers on their 4th state title!

Division II State Championship: Dallas Christian over Austin Regents (20-26) -- Wrong
--I said it would come down to a turnover, and there was 7 of them. One went to the endzone on the last play though. DC falls despite allowing 0 points on defense in the 2nd half. This looked to be the game of the year in Division II and it delivered. Congrats to the Knights on their 6th state title!

Division III State Championship: Colleyville Covenant Christian over Houston Cypress Christian (40-30) -- Correct
--Big offense in the 1st half that gave way to a slower 2nd half. Cougars were probably the best in Division III all year, we just only saw them 4 times in the regular season. Great season for both (and everybody) overcoming the adversity and trial of this season. Congrats to the Cougars on their 3rd state title!

Division IV State Championship: Shiner St. Paul over Waco Reicher (63-13) -- Correct
--A thorough beating to give the Cardinals the most 11-man TAPPS titles and their 7th in the last 11 seasons. This makes 3 straight for St. Paul and they continue to be the best team in small school TAPPS football, and one of the best at their school size in the state regardless of league. Congrats to the Cardinals on their 9th state title!

And with that everyone's undefeated again...

Historical Results:
2015: 94-16
2016: 79-25
2017: 78-32
2018: 88-22
2019: 89-21
2020: 64-23

Quick Hits:
2015: 60-15
2016: 103-26
2017: 101-29
2018: 102-28
2019: 103-27
2020: 77-23

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

State Final Playoff Picks 2020

The final week of the TAPPS season is here at last. Certainly there were doubts we'd get this far, but its a great tribute to everyone involved that we appear to have made it. Still a few hurdles to clear, but it should be an exciting conclusion in Waco this Saturday. So this will be the latest and shortest picks section that we may ever see. When its over, we'll all take a breath and try to keep it rolling to basketball. So for one more week, Good Luck and Safe Travels! 

Division II State Championship: Dallas Christian vs. Austin Regents -- The Knights return for a 5th consecutive title game after losing to Grapevine Faith in 2OT in 2016 and 3 straight losses to TCCH. With TCCH departing TAPPS, Regents figured to be a strong contender. 2020 played out exactly that way in the southern districts of Division II with the Knights winning all 9 games by at least 24 points and 6 of the 9 by at least 34 points. The Chargers are always a contender in Division II as they look for a 9th TAPPS title. The 63 points outing against Tyler Grace probably cemented the Chargers status as the favorites and ultimately have been largely unchallenged at the top. In matching Regents 9-0 mark, DC has won every game by 28 or more. The Chargers are 8-8 all time in state finals, having lost the last two appearances in 2014 and 2015. The Chargers most recent title was in 2008. The Knights are 5-6 all time in TAPPS finals with their most recent title coming in 2010. In a version of the 2020 schedule these two were going to play to start the season in August. As it happens each would have been the best opposition for the other this season, and they ultimately will be. A fitting end to the Division II season. Both teams have potent offenses and stingy defenses and there hasn't been any overlap in their opponents. This should be a great game, but I really don't know what type of game to expect. Probably a turnover to decide this one, and much more mystery in the game than in the pick if you know what I mean. Chargers win their 9th state title, 35-28. 

Division III State Championship: Colleyville Covenant Christian vs. Houston Cypress Christian -- The Cougars played just 7 games this season and will actually play as many playoff games as regular season games in 2020. Covenant has won them all though. Lake Country was one of the biggest challenges for the Covenant with the Cougars winning twice by 13 total points. The Warriors are 6-2 on the season but undefeated against Division III and IV opponents. Last week's semifinal victory over San Antonio Holy Cross came in shutout fashion, 14-0. The Warriors won their only previous appearance in the state title game, a 68-34 win over McKinney Christian in 2017. Covenant is 2-3 all time in TAPPS finals with their last win and appearance coming in 2017. They won that one 14-0 over Magnolia Legacy. Both teams have limited the opposition all season and this should be a game that looks like the two semifinals. 27 would have won either game, so expect 4 TDs to be enough. The Cougars have looked the best this season when we've seen them so with 4 games played in a row, I've got to lean that way. Cougars win their 3rd state title, 28-25.

Season: 63-22 

Quick Hits finishes the season at 77-23.

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Semifinal/State Final Playoff Picks 2020

2 champions will be crowned this week and 2 more next week. I will lodge my annual complaint in this space that 2 DFW schools driving to Waco to play this game makes basically no sense. In divisions where the bracketing can set up a predetermined site, like Divisions II and III, it makes plenty of sense. Division IV isn't as crazy as last year when two schools separated by 14 miles drove 160 to play. Anyway, I complain once a year about this and that is that for another year. Should be a bunch of exciting games this week, especially the Division I title game. Lots of the "usual suspects" playing for the crown. Just 8 games left in TAPPS 11-man this season. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 58-21)

Dallas Christian vs. Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Birdville -- The Chargers are the expected team this deep in the playoffs, though this will be the latest in year Dallas Christian has ever played a football game. The Eagles are the surprise in the Division II semifinals, at 8-1 they have more wins this season than any since MaxPreps started saving records in 2004. This is there 1st semifinal appearance since 1999, when they finished as state runner-up in Class 3A. The Chargers have been dominant all year with a 28 point margin over Grapevine Faith in the regional round standing as the closest game of the season. At 8-0, DC has been the favorite to reach the title game out of Districts 1 and 2 since an early blowout of Liberty and has scored 56+ in 6 of the 8 wins. Faith offered a little more resistance to the Chargers, but the DC defense held strong and has only allowed more than 14 points once all season. The Eagles bested FWC for the 2nd time this season in the regional, 35-28. Southwest had lost 11 in a row to FWC before this year. The Eagles announced their presence this season with a district opening win over Grapevine Faith 33-7. The only blemish is a bad 2nd half at Legacy that led to a 46-19 defeat. Given DC's 2 blowouts of Legacy that is not encouraging for the Eagles chances. I think Southwest has shown to be the best team offensively in District 1, and their style of offense should limit DC somewhat. I just can't see enough to reverse those Legacy scores. Chargers win 35-21.

Austin Regents vs. Houston Second Baptist @ Giddings -- The Knights and Eagles meet in the semifinal for the 3rd year in a row. Second Baptist will try their hand at Giddings this time after Brenham and Waller ended in matching 35-0 defeats in 2018 and 2019. The Eagles hope to crack the scoreboard in try #3. In 4 meetings since 2016, Second Baptist has scored just 20 total points. While they've been more competitive than most of the squads Regents has taken down on the way to 4 consecutive title games, the Eagles have struggled mightily offensively despite being known as an offensive powerhouse in the Houston area. This year they've scored 30+ in all 7 games in route to a 6-1 record. The Knights are undefeated again at 8-0, having suffered just 2 regular season losses since 2016. If you pick a Regents game at random from the last 5 seasons, you're more likely to land on a state title game than a regular season loss and you won't find any playoff defeats outside of 4 title games. That's a 58-6 record in that span. The Knights blew out St. Michael's in the opener and those Crusaders went on to beat everyone not named Second Baptist. Its felt like a march to a DC-Regents title game with Regents scoring 42 in every game this season, so I'm not going to breakup that medieval themed matchup in Waco next week. I think Second Baptist will be closer than anyone else though. We avoid an Eagles in the title game as Regents wins 42-28.

Colleyville Covenant Christian vs. Fort Worth Lake Country Christian @ Globe Life Park -- The Cougars fought COVID more than most teams to make it this far, entering the semis at just 6-0. With 27 days between games they defeated Lake Country Christian on the road 28-21 on October 30. The Eagles could be one of the only TAPPS teams to reach 10 wins this season with a revenge win this week. They avoided all cancellations and have just the Bi-district bye in the playoffs as they're only week off. Covenant accounts for the lone mark against Lake Country's 9-1 record. These two dominated the rest of district 1, outside of the Lubbock pair, where they both still scored victories. They wiped out District 2 in the playoffs. Have to think that this will be another game that looks a lot like the first meeting. I think the Eagles have the stronger offense, but admittedly we have only 6 results for the Cougars. Flip a coin really in this one. I think this is the closest of the 4 semifinals this week. Cougars win 30-29.

San Antonio Holy Cross vs. Houston Cypress Christian @ Victoria -- The Knights moved down to Division III and are happy to not see Regents in the playoffs. Holy Cross lost to Regents 8 times since 2015, including 3 times in the playoffs. The Warriors also moved down to Division III this alignment, returning back to a classification where they had been very successful, winning a state tile in 2017. They also brought in Kris Hogan from Grapevine Faith to be the new head coach after going just 2-8 last season. The COVID season has seen Cypress play just 7 times amassing a 5-2 record while going 5-0 against Division III and IV opponents. The The Warriors have struggled offensively some, managing just 10 against Tyler Grace and 21 in a win over Brazos Christian. The Knights hare 6-2 and also looked good against like sized opposition, but an ugly loss to Central Texas Christian, 40-14, isn't a good data point for Holy Cross. The Knights offense seems like the best unit here, with 162 points in 3 games since the ugly defeat. The Warriors will not be an easy out though. Knights win 35-28.

Division I State Championship: Fort Worth Nolan vs. Dallas Parish Episcopal -- Our first look at a state title game in 2020 takes us to District 1 in Division I. Always a powerhouse group when not split up like the last alignment, this year took it to another level as District 2 did not manage to win a single playoff game. The Panthers are the defending champs, having beaten surprising John Paul II 42-14 in last year's title game. The Vikings figured to be Parish's primary opposition for that title last season, but were ousted by John Paul in their first playoff game. This year's 8-0 season saw Nolan beat Parish 31-14 on November 13 to claim the district championship. It hasn't been a dominant season for Nolan, but that is probably a testament to the strength of District 1 more than anything. The Vikings will interestingly play only district opponents this season. The Panthers were expected to be the dominant team after last year's title. Beating Prestonwood by 61 points combined in 2 meetings reflects that. Surviving Midland Christian with a last second touchdown did not. Returning that matchup with a 34 point win in the semis does. If the best Parish team presents itself in Waco on Saturday night I think they are favorites. Nolan has been the more consistent squad this season, scoring 31+ in every game. This shapes up to a really good game, I think these two will light up the scoreboard in a 2nd meeting. I also believe Parish is the better team despite losing the 1st meeting. Parish has won all 3 trips to a TAPPS title game. Nolan is 7-4 in its previous title games, but this is their first since 2013. They reached 9 of 10 in a streak that ended in 2013. I'm taking the Panthers to win a 4th state title, but barely. Parish wins its 4th state title, 35-33.

Division IV State Championship: Waco Reicher vs. Shiner St. Paul -- The Cardinals are back in the state final for the 3rd year in a row as they try to three-peat as Division IV champs. This is the 12th title game for the 8-time champion Cardinals. They've taken different paths through the years, but as evidenced by winning the title after a 2-8 regular season one year, they always get better as the season goes. The Cardinals turned a season opening 4 point win over Rosehill into a 35 point win in the semis. St. Paul has won a state title 6 of the last 10 seasons, including 2 in Division III when TAPPS dropped to 3 divisions. Given a smaller enrollment than the two schools that will play for the 6-man Division I title on Friday, this space is always an admirer of the Cardinals. The Cougars are 4-0 in TAPPS title games, but are in their first since winning 3 in a row between 2007 and 2009. Reicher started just 1-4 on the season but have found their groove to win 4 in a row. Notably, a 27-22 win over Central Texas Christian in the regional round given CTC had beaten Division III semifinalist Holy Cross. The Cardinals have to be a clear favorite here, but they've not been as good defensively as some seasons. The Cougars should score some points, but I can't see it being enough. St. Paul wins its 9th state title, 44-28.

Quick Hits finishes the year at 77-23.

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Regional/Semifinal Playoff Picks 2020

Week 3 of the playoffs are here. Lots of expected teams still in, and a few unexpected. The latest regional round in TAPPS history will be followed by the latest championship games in TAPPS history. We have just 18 games left in private school 11-man football this year. Enjoy the ride. Good luck and safe travels.

This Week: (Season: 52-20)

Grapevine Faith Christian School vs. Dallas Christian School @ Royse City -- The Chargers continued their domination this season with a 59-14 rout of Frisco Legacy and their 2nd win over Legacy in as many games. DC is 7-0 on the season with all wins coming by at least 36 points. The offense has struck early and often each week, including 6 first halves of 40+ points. The Lions got off to a rocky start at 1-2, including a 33-7 defeat against Southwest Christian that led to Faith finishing the district season in 2nd place. They've rebounded well though winning their last 4 to post a 5-2 mark entering the Regional round. Legacy provides the only common opponent and Faith did defeat them 49-35. The 49 is a good performance to work from if you're Faith, but allowing 35 when Legacy scored just 30 in 2 games combined against DC does not bode well. The virus cancelled the other common opponents we would have had in FWC and Brook Hill. Faith has struggled a bit offensively this year and scored just 14 in their playoff win over Brook Hill. Last season Faith won the Regional playoff game 28-17 before losing to TCCH in the semifinal. Despite not being too far apart, Faith and DC have played just 4 times in the last 20 years, all in the playoffs with the schools splitting the 4 games. The margins in those games have been 3, 29, 6 (in 2OT), and 11. DC has been better this season, but in the Regional round it should be a close game. The Chargers offense should be too much this year, and there isn't much mystery in who this space picks. DC wins 35-21.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian School vs. Fort Worth Christian School @ Fort Worth Castleberry -- The Cardinals started this season in tough shape with and 0-3 record and 2 cancellations. Then they trailed Coram Deo at the half. Since then its been 4 wins in 5 game for FWC. The only loss was to Faith in OT. The 4 wins also saw the Cardinals get the offense going, scoring 48, 49, 62, and then 30 in their road playoff win. FWC may have been unlucky as the only District 1 or 2 school to have to play in round 1, but having that extra game may have helped them keep things rolling. The Eagles defeated FWC back on October 23, 14-8. That was a home game for Southwest, and beating a team twice is difficult according to the cliche. 7-1 is one of the best marks for the Eagles since their last district title in 2004. It took them a bit to shake McKinney Christian at home, but it was a dreary day last Saturday. It will take more points than it did in October to win this one. The Eagles rushing attack needs to stay away from turnovers, and needs the lead. They got it in the regular season meeting. I feel like a reversal is the expected outcome and I think FWC is playing better right now. FWC got the 1st half lead against Grace and won despite only 3 2nd half points. I think this one is close to the end, but FWC reverse the scoreboard. Cardinals win 30-28.

Regents School of Austin vs. Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian Academy @ Sealy -- The Knights continue to dominate the southern half of the Division II playoffs, scoring a 45 point victory last week to open their postseason. Regents is 7-0 on the season winning every game by at least 28 and scoring at least 42 in every outing. They've played just once since Halloween, but that did not seem to derail them in their playoff opener. The Eagles will be the first team outside of District 3 that the Knights have seen. Its been a resurgent season for the Eagles at 7-2, their best mark since an 8-4 campaign in 2016. They absolutely crushed Corpus Christi John Paul in their playoff opener last week, 55-7. Interestingly, Regents beat them by the same score. Its probably too reliant on past history involving players that have graduated, but I have to take the Knights to continue their reign. Regents wins 42-21.

Austin St. Michael's Catholic Academy vs. Houston Second Baptist School @ Columbus -- The Eagles have the been the next team in line behind Regents for the entire 4 year run of the Knights reaching the title game. Second Baptist has not lost a district game since 2016, winning the last 5 district titles. The Crusaders enter this one at 6-1 with their most wins in a season since 2013. They dropped only the season opener at Regents. Second Baptist shutout Victoria St. Joseph in the Area round, 42-0. Of course in 2020, St. Michael's did not play St. Joseph due to the virus. So no common opponents between these two. The Eagles have to be careful looking ahead to a semifinal with Regents as the Crusaders pose plenty of a challenge. I really don't know which way to expect this one. Look for the Eagles to score as usual, but I think the Crusaders may have something to keep up. Hard to go against the favorites to set up a match of district champions. Eagles win 42-35.

Fort Worth Nolan vs. Fort Worth All Saints @ Globe Life Park -- The Division I bracket has reached the semifinals with all District 1 teams. The district champion Vikings certainly planned on getting this far, and maybe farther. The Saints actually finished as the 7th seed in district play and were just 1-3 in the regular season. They've now won 2 playoff games though the 2nd one was a meeting of surprise teams against Liberty. After beating the eventual champion Parish Episcopal last year, the Saints had high hopes. Injuries then derailed that campaign. This year a season opening win over Azle and the expectations of a healthy squad were quickly undone by COVID cancellations and then a loss to Nolan 41-27. The offense has been going lately with 91 points scored in the 2 playoff wins. The Vikings controlled the district schedule from start to finish. With just two games decided by 14 points and the other 4 wins by at least 17. After early leads led to victories against Midland and All Saints, they used big 2nd halves against Parish and in the Regional against John Paul. Nolan trailed 10-5 at the half last week, in a game where the offense was ugly. The Viking defense ultimately broke the game with 2 safeties and a fumble recovery in the end zone to produce one of the Nolan touchdowns. The Viking offense will have to be a lot better to best the Saints. They are definitely capable of better, as they produced in October. I think they are the district champs for a reason and will chalk up last week's offensive nightmare to rust after the bye week. Vikings win 35-28.

Dallas Parish Episcopal vs. Midland Christian @ Abilene Christian -- The Mustangs have been Division I's mystery. They dominated UIL power Wall in the opener, were very slow to start against Nolan on the road, outplayed Parish in a loss, and the looked terrible against John Paul on the road. They finally found that usual West Texas road footing in the playoffs. blowing out St. Pius in Houston. Last week was more of the same within a single game. The Mustangs opened a 14-0 lead in the first 5 minutes and wouldn't score again until there was less than 4 minutes to play. The defense held a potent St. Thomas team to just 7. The Panthers are the defending champions and were the clear favorites going into 2020. The loss to Nolan changed the calculus a bit, but they've looked the part in the playoffs. They controlled the 2nd half in a 44-24 win over Prestonwood last week. It was just a 2 point win for Parish back in October, and they needed a last second touchdown to get that win. This should be a close game, much closer than last season's 44-6 playoff drubbing dished out by Parish. I'm not sure its as close as October, but it should be a good contest. Parish seems to be the better team and you better beat the Mustangs before the title game, since they've never lost one of those in TAPPS. Panthers survive, 28-24.

Shiner St. Paul vs. Tomball Rosehill Christian @ Giddings -- Our Division IV brethren get talked about less than the others, but Shiner St. Paul is always the team to beat in the small schools. With a smaller enrollment that the eventual champions of two 6-man divisions they are the the 2-time defending state champions. They've taken different paths each year, in 2018 they were 2-8 in the regular season and won 4 playoff rounds and the title. In 2019, they were a more traditional champ at 10-3. Then 2020, everything is different. The Cardinals are 6-1, only losing to San Antonio Holy Cross. They opened the season with a 21-17 win over this Rosehill Christian squad. The Eagles have seen an uneven 4-4 season, but the 3 losses other than St. Paul came to teams outside the division. This shapes up as a defensive struggle, but the weather looks better for this week than last. Rosehill has a very good chance to turn the tables here, but hasn't been as consistent as St. Paul. The winner here should be favored in the title game next week. Cardinals get back to the title game, 33-20. 

Quick Hits: (Season: 72-23)

Colleyville Covenant over Arlington Grace Prep
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Lubbock Trinity Christian
San Antonio Holy Cross over Magnolia Legacy Prep
Houston Cypress Christian over League City Bay Area Christian
Waco Reicher over Dallas First Baptist

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Area/Regional Playoff Picks 2020

Week 2 of the playoffs are here, and there's plenty of intrigue after all the road wins in Week 1. Hopefully we're just 3 weeks from 2 champions and 4 weeks from 2 more. Good luck everyone on the road to state. 

Division II Preview:

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The Eagles opened November with a trip to Mesquite and they will close November with a trip to Mesquite. Back on 11/6, Legacy traveled to DC and played well in the early going and captured an early lead. The rushing attack of the Eagles moved the ball well through much of the game, but managed just 16 points. If they can get things in gear offensively they have a chance to score a road upset like so many did last week. Given the Eagles ground game they will need the lead early. The Chargers have won games big and bigger this season, with 36 being the closest margin. DC has scored early and often outside of two games. 2nd half dominance was needed against Argyle Liberty in the season opener and in the Chargers last outing against this Legacy squad. They turned a 14 point game at the half into a 42 point win against Liberty and a 3-0 deficit into a 40 point win over Legacy. I come back to the idea that Eagles must get the lead to have a chance. The 16 they scored in the first meeting was the most DC allowed all year, but won't be close to enough this week. After the big loss to FWC, I just don't see how the Eagles find the needed form in this one. Chargers win the rematch. 45-14.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Lions had bigger hopes for this season, but did rebound from a 1-2 start to finish 4-2 and secure the 2nd spot thanks to Legacy's loss to FWC. Faith needed OT to get by FWC the last time we saw them back on November 12. The Guard scored a come from behind victory in the opener of FWC, but when last we saw them they were being shutout by Tyler Grace. This was after Grace had allowed 117 in its previous two games. The off weeks make this such a strange season and I don't know where the twists and turns will take us. The Guard squad that played FWC and Anahuac has a good chance at the road upset. The Brook Hill team that played TCA and Grace has no chance at all. Faith has allowed some points on the year with opponents scoring 33+ 3 weeks in a row at one point. Brook Hill has been so hit and miss this year that I'm not sure what to think. Home teams always feel like the safer choice, but that move backfired last week. Lions win 35-28.

Fort Worth Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cardinals are the only team in the northern half to play last week, dominating Hyde Park 62-21. This is a week after beating up Legacy 49-14. In contrast though, FWC entered play on October 30th winless at 0-3. The Cougars are bit Jekyll and Hyde like their Smith County neighbors. They just have the 1 loss to DC, but it was a big one. Needing OT to beat Cypress Christian is less than inspiring, but it is a win. Dominating Legacy and Brook Hill bodes well. Allowing 54 to McKinney Christian does not. The Cardinals are playing better, but how much better is Grace playing right now. I tend to land on home teams in the playoffs, but this is a spot for road upset. It is Grace's best chance to reach the semis in many seasons with a favorable bracket that has both DC and Faith in a different quarter. Last time these two played was a 2016 playoff game at Grace that saw 108 points in a 56-52 Grace win that was featured on DFW radio in "Homer Call of the Week." We can only hope this one is just as exciting. Grace wins a thriller again, but not quite so many points. Cougars win 41-40.

McKinney Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- We come to our 2nd Eagles of the week as the surprising district champs from the shore of Benbrook Lake host a playoff game for the first time since I believe 2004. They've actually won 2 road playoff games since they last hosted one. The Mustangs have not had the success in Division II. They have looked better this year, but still short on getting the big win. MCA actually scored 54 twice this year in losses and that type of offense could pose problems for Southwest. The Eagles are a surprise 6-1 and district champion. Like so many this week its been since November 6 that they played. They were dominant in a win over Coram Deo though so were the Mustangs. The Eagle defense holding Faith to 7 and FWC to 8 are the best defensive performances between these two. I have to go all home teams I suppose. Eagles should score enough to win. Southwest wins 35-20.

Brownsville St. Joseph @ Austin Regents -- The Knights have been the power of the southern districts in Division II and that remains a constant in 2020. Its been a dominant campaign for Regents allowing just 49 points in 6 games this year. 28 were in one game and they still won that one by 28. The Knights have scored 55+ in their last 3 games but as a product of 2020 they haven't played since October 30. The Bloodhounds will travel north for a rematch of an October 23rd game where Regents shut them out 55-0. That game was the last part of an ugly 1-3 start for St. Joseph. The rebounded with 3 wins in their last 4, including 2 since Regents last played. The Bloodhounds offense has exploded for 110 points in the last 2 weeks, and a road upset of Lutheran South last week. The Hounds should be closer than they were in October and the layoff might make things interesting, but turning around 55 points is a tall order. Knights win 42-14.

Corpus Christi John Paul II @ Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian -- Our 3rd Eagles of the week is the Fort Bend Christian Eagles who are having their best season since a 7-0 start in 2014. Only Kinkaid and Second Baptist have gotten the better of the Eagles. There have been relatively few blowouts on the campaign, but still several good wins. In their most recent outing they bested Cypress Christian by 14. The Centurions have had a resurgent couple of seasons, but have struggled against the best in District 3. When last we saw JP2 they dropped a 17 point decision to Geneva in the regular season finale. They took a walkover to reach Round 2 when Frassati had to withdraw. This seems to be pretty evenly matched teams, so at home with a significant travel distance for the Centurions I have to take the Eagles. Fort Bend wins 33-28.

Boerne Geneva @ Austin St. Michael's -- Our 4th Eagles of the week travel to Austin to take on the Crusaders. Geneva has handled the transition to Division II better than many teams, posting 3 district wins and then a stunning late comeback win in Round 1. The 3 game win streak has seen 50 points scored by the Eagles in all 3 games and scored the most points anyone did against Regents. The Crusaders dropped their opener to Regents back in September and won 5 in a row after that. They've been a force defensively allowing just 49 points total in the 5 wins. Unless the St. Michael's defense was lost over the break I can't see Geneva scoring enough to win here. Crusaders win 35-14.

Victoria St. Joseph @ Houston Second Baptist -- The 5th Eagles of the week are the champions of District 4. They will play this "home" game in the shadow of the CVS Pharmacy at Houston Baptist. The Eagles clinched the district title with a win over Fort Bend Christian on November 6, 33-14. Their other district wins were blowouts with 49 points scored in each one. They were scheduled to play St. Joseph in the regular season finale but that game was called off due to COVID. The Flyers struggled early in the season being blown out by the teams that finished ahead of them in the district standings. The closest margin was 37 in the 3 game losing streak. They've fought their own COVID battles early on too. The Flyers were one of the many road upsets in the opening week and probably are better off having not played the Eagles in the regular season. They scored just 21 against Division IV Hallettsville Sacred Heart and 27 in the playoff win over Brentwood. I think they need at least 35 to take down Second Baptist and have only reached that against Frassati. Eagles win handily, 48-14.

I think we all know where my biases are, so no need to attempt to project the whole bracket. The committee of one has an affection for the interesting mascots across the state so the Division II playoff preview always ends with a rundown of the playoff teams. So even in the time of COVID, for the 7th year in a row...

The move of San Antonio Holy Cross to Division III means we have just 1 duplicate mascot this year, but we hope the best for all 5 Eagles anyway. A few common names take shot at the crown as well as some fun newcomers. Good luck to everyone on the road to state, 5 Eagles, the Knights, the Cardinals, the Cougars, the Lions, the Mustangs, the Crusaders, the Guard, the Flyers, the Centurions, and the Bloodhounds. Then we always finish with wishing the best of luck to the Chargers! 

Bonus Division I Picks:

Fort Worth Nolan vs. Plano John Paul II @ Globe Life Park -- The Division I bracket brings us a lot of district matchups. Though in 2020, they didn't actually play in the regular season. The Vikings entered the season as the 2nd favorite in District 1, behind defending state champion Parish Episcopal. They lived up to that billing and then some beating Parish in the regular season finale, 31-14. That gave Nolan the opening round bye into the Regional round. Those 31 were actually the Vikings lowest output of the season, having scored plenty of points in their 6-0 season. They haven't been invincible, allowing quite a few points in the first half. Pretty fitting of the team that used to play where this game will be. That said the Vikings have been dominant in 2nd halves. The Cardinals did not get to play Nolan in the regular season. When they've been able to dodge the virus, they've been excellent for the most part. Dominating Midland Christian and playing Parish to OT the biggest examples. They disappointed against Prestonwood, but are still a long way from the teams that lost 33 in a row. Last season these two were in the same position, regional round, Nolan had a bye. The Cardinals won that one 49-15. This should be a reversal based on the regular season, but I'm not sure. Coach Teague seems to have the Cardinals play their best when they should be up against it. I'm taking Nolan but don't feel good about it. Vikings win 30-28.

Midland Christian vs. Houston St. Thomas @ Fredricksburg -- The Mustangs took the long trip to Houston and scored 64 against St. Pius X in a huge victory. Last season MCS opened the playoffs with a win over St. Pius, but did it at home. The Mustangs have beaten the teams they should've but struggled a little after a season opening tromp of Wall. They looked good in a loss to Parish, but very underwhelming at John Paul. The MCS team that nearly beat Parish and beat Wall by 35 has a great chance here. Our 6th Eagles of the week is the champions of District 2 and the only one from the district left standing in the Regional round. They dominated long time rival St. Pius after they had just narrowly edged Antonian in overtime. The Eagles have beaten every private school opponent so far and scored 31+ in 7 of their 8 games. I think a high scoring game is in order, but it looks like District 1 is way ahead of District 2 this year. Mustangs win 42-38.

Season: 43-19 

Quick Hits: (Season: 64-21)

Dallas Parish Episcopal over Plano Prestonwood Christian
Fort Worth All Saints over Argyle Liberty Christian
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Dallas Covenant
Arlington Pantego Christian over Lubbock Trinity Christian
San Antonio Holy Cross over Houston Northland Christian
League City Bay Area Christian over Schertz John Paul II
Dallas First Baptist Academy over Muenster Sacred Heart
Temple Central Texas Christian over Waco Reicher
Shiner St. Paul over Bryan Brazos Christian

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Bi-District/Area Playoff Picks 2020

The year of the unprecedented continues into playoffs. Hopefully we're just 4 weeks from crowning some champions and we'll know all the title winners by Christmas. In this weird year, everyone is in the playoffs that wants to be but it leaves us just 15 games across all 11-man divisions given the byes. As you may know the committee focuses on Division II, and will usually have a full rundown of every Division II playoff game and listing of who is in the bracket by mascots. We will save that for the round of 16 next week, but will continue into year 6 of covering every Division II playoff game. Good luck and safe travels! 

This Week: (Season: 41-14)

Austin Hyde Park @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals are a bit unlucky to draw an opponent as they will be the only game in the northern half of Division II. FWC started the season a dismal 0-3 with 2 lost 4th quarter leads, 2 cancellations, and a loss where they managed just 8 points. That 14-8 loss to Southwest Christian set the Cardinals on the path where they would not get a bye in round 1. In their final 3 games the Cardinals played much better. Scoring 48 and 49 in big 2nd half wins over Legacy and Coram Deo while falling to Grapevine Faith by just 1. The Panthers have also managed just 2 wins on the season and were one of the few TAPPS schools to get all games in on all 8 weeks. It was an ugly start at just 1-6 with the only win over Austin LASA. They did close with a 35-12 win over Brentwood, a program on the rise in recent seasons, so I think they are playing their best at the end. The Panther defense has been pretty porous against the best in District 3 and FWC should rival that output. With both teams trending up at the end of the season, the Cardinals should have a clear edge. FWC gets the game at home too. Cardinals win 44-19.

Brownsville St. Joseph @ Houston Lutheran South -- The Bloodhounds are always a favorite of this space, but have been average hunters this year. They were dominated by the top of District 3, Regents by 55 and St. Michael's by 24. However, they are 3-2 in their other 5 games, with close losses to John Paul and Brentwood. Getting the offense going will be key for the Hounds on the road. The Pioneers enter with a matching 3-4 record on the season. LSA was dominated by district champion Second Baptist in a 49-0 shutout. Against 2nd place finisher Fort Bend Christian the Pioneers dropped a 2 point decision. I said St. Joseph needs to get the offense going in part because LSA needs the defense to play well. In 3 wins the Pioneers allowed 14, 12, and 12. In 4 losses they allowed 56, 49, 38, and 41. If the Bloodhounds can score 30 they win, it will keep the Pioneer offense off the field as well. I just don't see it happening on the road though. Pioneers win 38-20.

Boerne Geneva @ The Woodlands Christian -- The Warriors host a playoff game as one of the few teams with winning records on the schedule for this week in Division II. The 4-3 season saw The Woodlands dominate the teams that finished at the bottom of districts and score some points against the higher ranked opposition but fall well short. For example, Lutheran South failed to score against Second Baptist while the Warriors managed 24. All signs point to a Warriors win given their higher ranking and better record. The Eagles finished the regular season 3-5, but scored a mild upset in the finale against Corpus Christi John Paul II. The case of another team playing well at the end. I just don't see the scoring output being their for Geneva in this road contest. This looks like the closest game of the 5 in Division II this week to me. Warriors win at home though, 28-24.

Victoria St. Joseph @ Austin Brentwood Christian -- The Bears are the other team with a winning record in action in the bi-district round. A 4-3 season is a bit of a disappointment after an 8-3 campaign last season. Though Brentwood lacks any real impressive wins. Margins of 1, 3, and 6 over the lesser teams in District 3 while shutting out St. Anthony is good, they had the smallest margin of victory over the 0-5 last place finisher. Scoring just 12 in a season closing loss to Hyde Park is not the momentum you'd be looking for head to the playoffs. The Flyers have seen their season ravaged by COVID, completing just 5 games at a 2-3 record. They dominated last place Frassati 61-8, but secured just a 5 point victory over Division IV Hallettsville Sacred Heart. In the middle the top 3 of District 4 put up a ton of points in three losses. Really neither team has a terribly impressive resume this season, but who does in the time of COVID. This looks like a Brentwood win, but I'm not sure we've seen the Flyers best this season if I can play both sides a bit. Bears win 28-15.

Spring Frassati @ Corpus Christi John Paul II -- The last matchup in Division II sends us to the Gulf Coast, where the Centurions are in the midst of their best stretch of football in 20 years. At 4-4, they still finished 3rd in district 3 but took a disappointing loss to Geneva to close the season. A huge 52 points allowed was the most of the season. The Falcons have been non-competitive so far on the season at 0-7. The closest defeat was 32 and they've allowed at least 42 points in all 7 losses. I try to sugar coat things most of the time, but I can't see this one being close. Centurions win 48-7.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ San Antonio Central Catholic -- The Division I portion of the schedule see a few interesting crossover matches. The Warriors struggled all year, but saw quality opposition in their 6 losses. The trouble is you'd like to hold one of those opponents to under 42 points. The Buttons saw just 5 games of action this season, posting a 4-1 record. Beating St. Pius certainly raised some eyebrows for how competitive Central might be. The northern schools in Division I have traditionally been the stronger squads creating some road playoff wins in the opening round. Even bad teams from strong District 1 have looked quite good against a top offerings in District 2. A 1-9 Plano John Paul team of the past comes to mind. The Warriors may be well positioned to win this, but on the road in the time of COVID, I think they fall just short. Buttons win 28-24.

Fort Worth All Saints @ San Antonio Antonian -- The Apaches reached the semifinals last season in surprise fashion before falling to the bigger surprise in Plano John Paul II. Only an OT loss to St. Thomas blemished the 6-1 season. The points should fly in this one with Antonian scoring 28 in every game and 42 in 5 out 7. The Saints should be a part of that points offering with opponents scoring 50, 41, and 35 in three of their 4 games. Just a 1-3 season for the Saints that hasn't seen them on the field since Halloween. The lone win back in September was a 70-50 victory over Azle. I think the Saints are better than their record, and if they can find their form after playing so little, they should be dangerous. I just can't predict it in this road clash. Apaches win 38-31.

Midland Christian @ Houston St. Pius X -- Another team we haven't seen since Halloween is the MCS Mustangs. The long trip to Houston doesn't seem encouraging, but they are still the team that outplayed the defending champs for 46 minutes. The Mustangs also crushed state ranked Wall back in their opener when Wall was playing its 4th game. Its been a struggle on the road for MCS, shut out in the 2nd half at Nolan, and managing just 13 at JP2. The MCS squad that played Parish and Wall beats this St. Pius group handily. The Panthers are 4-3 and have not looked good against the best of Division I. They were blown out by rival St. Thomas and saw Antonian score 44 against them for the 2nd year in a row. St. Pius had won the last 5 meetings over Antonian before that. This does not look like the Panthers best squad and that might make them the overlooked team in the playoffs. This is a tough trip for the Mustangs, but the Permian Basin inhabitants always know how to travel. Just enough for MCS, Mustangs win 32-30. 

Quick Hits: (Season: 57-20)

Dallas Parish Episcopal over Dallas Bishop Lynch
Plano John Paul II over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Dallas Shelton over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Dallas First Baptist over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Temple Central Texas Christian over Weatherford Christian
Waco Reicher over Fort Worth Calvary
Houston Lutheran North over Hallettsville Sacred Heart

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Week 8/12 Picks 2020

The last week of the regular season is here. The latest any TAPPS season has ended will lead to the longest playoffs TAPPS has ever held. Good luck and stay safe and we'll see you next week for the postseason. 

This Week: (Season: 37-13)

Dallas Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Chargers started slowly against Legacy and it looked like it could be close to the end. The big plays put DC ahead by a bunch in the 3rd and led to another 40 point win. At 6-0, 5 wins have been by 40+ with the other by 36. The Guard disappointing offensively against Grace, locking them into the 3rd place position in District 2 unless they can spring the upset. Both losses for Brook Hill have been shutouts. While a 4-2 campaign is hardly a poor one, the opening win over FWC had to lead to some increased expectations and they haven't really delivered on those. The common opponents just doesn't bode well for the Guard here. DC scored 9 touchdowns against Grace and Brook Hill failed to score. The Chargers posted 76 at McKinney Christian while the Guard scored just 35 at home against the same squad. The upset is hard to imagine here, but road games when you've only played 1 all year to this point would how it would happen. Chargers just too much, DC wins 45-12. (Cancelled)

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Eagles looked game for the 1st half at DC. Leading 3-0 deep into the 1st and trailing just 11 at the half it seemed they would be in it to the end. A 21-0 3rd quarter got the game out of reach and they ultimately fell by 40. 16 was the most scored on DC this year and I think Legacy would be better in a rematch. The Cardinals had a rocky start to the year with late defeats and cancelled games. FWC was finally able to reach the win column over Coram Deo and had a lead late last week against Faith. Faith squeaked by 21-20 positioning this as a possible 3rd place game. Legacy lost to Faith 49-35 after leading much of the way. With this being the last game of the district season, depending on the tiebreakers, its possible a win vaults Legacy to 1st and a loss drops them to 4th. FWC can only reach 3rd place given they already have 2 losses in district play. If Legacy avoids the turnover bug that can plague option teams from time to time they should be in position to win this. Road wins are always tough and despite being 1-4, FWC is no easy out. FWC finds a way at home, 28-26.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Fort Worth Nolan -- The much anticipated District 1 showdown will finally happen (he says hoping not to jinx things). The Panthers have started 6-0, but not without some bumps. Both MCS and JP2 largely controlled games and had late leads. Its a point in Parish's favor that they are never out, but it certainly leaves room for doubt. The Vikings 5-0 start included a dominant 2nd half against Midl Christian, but they didn't have to see John Paul in the regular season. Nolan struggled a little more with Prestonwood, but still won handily. I think these may be the best defenses the teams see and with a week off to prepare I think we get a big of a slug fest here. Given the late heroics of the Panthers thus far and their status as the champs I'll have to lean that direction. Panthers win the district title, 22-20.

Plano John Paul II @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions have suffered as many schedule changes as anyone, this week is no exception. MaxPreps actually still doesn't have this one right. Especially by Prestonwood standards its been a struggle of a year. They haven't really been close in the "big" games. Though they did only lose to Nolan by 14. The Cardinals have been close on the other hand. Last we saw the Cardinals, they took Parish to OT. Its just a 2-2 season so far for JP2. They suffocated the MCS offense before that in a 24-13 win. Given the Parish blowout of Prestonwood, I feel like I should lean toward John Paul. It just doesn't feel like a game that sets up well for either team. When I don't feel good either way, just take the home team. Prestonwood wins 35-31.

Episcopal School of Dallas @ Addison Trinity Christian -- Will work the Trojans in to finish off their regular season. TCA was on a 21 game losing streak to start 2020, but have gone 3-1 on the season. Its been a while since we've seen the Trojans, who last shut out Brook Hill on Oct. 23. The Eagles are 2-0 onthis renegade SPC season, having held Trinity Valley and St. Marks to just 9 points combined. The loss to Legacy seems a bit odd for TCA at this point of the season given wins over FWC and blowing out Brook Hill. This should be an interesting game, even if the stakes are pretty low. I think TCA gets another win to close out the season. The Trojan offense should be the best ESD has seen this year. Trojans win at home, 28-21.

San Antonio Holy Cross @ Schertz John Paul II -- The Knights have been a contender for Division II in recent years, but find themselves in Division III in this odd season. After a couple of nice wins over the always strong pair of Shiner St. Paul and Hallettsville Sacred Heart, the Knights were absolutely demolished by Central Texas Christian. A strange trio of results. Giving up 26 to Hyde Park who only matched that total once in their next 6 game doesn't bode well either. So why does this game make the list? Well it will decide the playoff seeding on the Division III side of the district with the winner avoiding a district champion opponent in the area round. Also, Knights vs. Guardians is a great pairing. The Guardians were also blown out by Central Texas Christian. They were also dominated by Shiner St. Paul. No shame in that, but Holy Cross wins that common opponent. This seems to be a close game. I think the Guardians will struggle to score, but that has been a problem for the Knights in big game in the recent past. Knights have enough here I think. Holy Cross wins 28-21.

San Antonio Antonian @ San Antonio Central Catholic -- The Apaches have followed up last year's surprise semifinal appearance with a good season. By far the closest district opponent to St. Thomas, Antonian fell by 7 in OT for their only loss of the season. The Buttons are just 4-1, being limited by the schedule changes of 2020, but haven't been as dominant against the common opponents. That said they weren't blown out by St. Thomas and there is no reason to think they won't be competitive here. The Apaches look to be the better team and the offense has posted 40+ in 5 of 7 outings this year. Antonian should have enough, but this space does love a mascot of Buttons. Apaches win 42-29. (Cancelled)

Shiner St. Paul @ Austin St. Michaels -- We'll add this one to make up for the cancelled DC game. The Cardinals will travel to Austin for a interdivision game that cross two divisions. The Cardinals are 5-1 on the season and rarely lose inside of Division IV. However,  the Crusaders are a Division II squad. St. Paul has never been scared off by numbers, playing 11-man with fewer students that at least 10 TAPPS 6-man programs. Dominant wins over Central Texas Christian and Hallettsville Sacred Heart speak well for the Cardinals chances in this tough road game. Its a tough one given the Crusaders 5-1 record. Only dropping the opener to Regents and have been stingy defensively with only Regents managing more than 20 points. The Crusaders struggled a bit with a 1-6 Hyde Park team and will need to better from the jump against St. Paul. Always enjoy seeing these cross division games to make some comparisons. I'm going to go with St. Mikes, because I think they are better than SA Holy Cross and they defeated St. Paul this year. Crusaders win 28-22. (Cancelled)

Quick Hits: (Season: 52-16)

Tyler Grace over Dallas Bishop Dunne
Flower Mound Coram Deo over McKinney Christian
Argyle Liberty Christian over Dallas Bishop Lynch
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin Hyde Park
Brownsville St. Joseph over San Antonio St. Anthony's
Corpus Christi John Paul II over Boerne Geneva
Houston Second Baptist over Victoria St. Joseph
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Houston Cypress Christian
Arlington Pantego Christian over Tyler T.K. Gorman
Lubbock Christian over Fort Worth Lake Country Christian
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Muenster Sacred Heart

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Week 7/11 Picks 2020

We get another week closer to the end of the strangest regular season in TX HS Football history. The playoff picture is a bit clearer. Some districts will be decided this week. The effects of COVID and bye weeks should make for an interesting playoffs. Stay safe and good luck this week.

This Week: (Season: 34-11)

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Dallas Christian -- This will possibly be a meeting of the champions of Districts 1 and 2. That took a hit last week as Legacy fell to Grapevine Faith putting us on a 3-way tie path. The Eagles will travel to Mesquite for a football game for just the 3rd time in school history and just the 4th meeting overall between these two. In the last meeting the Chargers won a 17-3 decision in the opening round of the 2018 playoffs. That seems so long ago at this point. Its been a dominant campaign thus far for the Chargers, tallying at least 48 points in all 5 games thus far. 36 points is the closest margin in the 5-0 start. The Eagles have started 3-3 but notched a couple of notable wins along the way. A 23-20 win over TCA looks better with TCA shutting out Brook Hill a few weeks later. The 2nd half domination of Southwest Christian seemed to put them on track for a district title. Last week's slip up against Faith muddies the water a bit. Seeing DC put 63 on Tyler Grace can not be encouraging for Legacy given the 42-21 loss they took against Grace to open the season. The Eagles rushing attack will have a lot to deal with given the DC defense has allowed just 40 points on the entire season. The offensive attack for Legacy should let them hold the score a little more in check, but it seems DC has too much to offer based on the results this year. Chargers win 43-14.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Tyler Grace Community -- With Grace's defeat in Mesquite last week, this appear to be a de facto 2nd place game in District 2. The winner will almost certainly get the 2nd bye from this district. These two have contested the middle places in the district for a number of years. Last year, Grace fell to Brook Hill 33-28 to begin a 4 game slide to close the season. The Guard started a 3 game win streak with that win and would win a road playoff game in round 1 after securing the better seed. The Cougars were off to a 4-0 start and while not scoring much against Cypress Christian had been impressive offensively. How they respond to the blowout loss to DC this week will be interesting to see. Being back at home is certainly a perk for the Cougars. The Guard have their own 4-1 record to match Grace, but the blowout loss to TCA really changed the mood. Brook Hill has been less impressive offensively compared to Grace. In contrast though Brook Hill held McKinney Christian to just 8 while they scored 54 against Grace. I think this solely rests on the Guard defense against the Cougar offense. I expect Brook Hill to score around 30, does Grace match that total? Cougars win at home, 40-30.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals have had a campaign of adversity. Starting 0-3 with 2 cancelled will certainly lessen expectations. However, they responded with a 2nd half victory over Coram Deo that was very similar to Faith's win. The Lions loss to Southwest Christian changed the outlook for District 1, but their victory over Frisco Legacy changed it back somewhat. A Faith win would set things up for a 3-way tie, but Cardinals could just as easily win their last 2 and be right in the mix for the top spot. The Cardinals have lost 2 double digit 4th quarter leads this season and just changing those results makes them 3-1 and gives us a totally different outlook. Faith won a year ago, 27-23. FWC won 2 years ago, 38-27. This should be a close game, and I think in 2020 you go with the home team. Cardinals win 21-18.

Plano John Paul II @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Cardinals surprised me with their strong performance against Parish last week. Looks like District 1 will still come down to Nolan vs. Parish, but John Paul is a stronger contender for December than I realized. The Saints have struggled so far this year, dropping all 3 district contests so far. All Saints scored just 7 points against Parish and can't be encouraged to see 51 on the board for JP2 last week. I think COVID and the uncertainty seems to have impacted All Saints more than most, but it just doesn't seem favorable. The good news is the game is in Fort Worth. The Cardinals defense should be able to replicate much of what the other district opponents have done so far. John Paul probably doesn't produce the big 51 point total a 2nd week in a row, but I think they have enough. Cardinals win 30-20.

Midland Christian @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Mustangs have been great at home this year. They've dominated state ranked Wall, outplayed Parish for most the game in a last minute defeat, and then squashed the All Saints offense last week. On the road has been different. They couldn't slow down the Nolan attack and were offensively troubled in their last trip to Plano to play JP2. They did beat Liberty handily in a trip to Argyle. The Lions have not only beaten the teams they were supposed to, they dominated them. Including last week's shutout of Bishop Lynch, Prestonwood leads 137-28 in their 3 wins. They also could not slow the Nolan offense and Parish rolled up 55 on the Lion defense. If the game were in Midland, I would have to take the Mustangs given their success and the difficulty of long road trips in 2020. Since the game is in Plano its much more interesting. The winner here has the inside path to a home game in round 1. I think this breaks low scoring, Lions win 24-21.

Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian @ Houston Second Baptist -- The Eagles descend on Texas largest city for a de facto district title game. Fort Bend Christian has already won 4 district games and racked up a ton of points in the process. They just narrowly slipped by Lutheran South last week, 38-36, to set up this title game. For as dominant as Fort Bend has been offensively, Second Baptist has been better. Notably shutting out Lutheran South 49-0. Its been a great season of resurgence for Fort Bend, but I can't see it being enough here. The Sugar Land Eagles will get the 2nd bye from District 4, but fall here. The Second Baptist Eagles win 40-20.

Colleyville Covenant @ Lubbock Christian -- The Eagles are always strong in the regular season, and 2020 is no different. Lubbock Christian enters this rescheduled meeting at 5-0. Things have been getting a little dicey in recent weeks after scoring 50+ in their opening 3 games Lubbock Trinity lowered that to 36. Last week, Willow Park Trinity allowed just 22 in a 2 point victory for the Eagles. The Panthers have had a 3-0 start but the 3 week break is probably not what they wanted in the middle. The 1 point margin for the Panthers over Lubbock Trinity does not bode well given the Eagles 30 point victory. Its an interesting matchup of undefeated squads, but I think the road trip is too much this week. Lubbock Christian wins 35-28.

Quick Hits: (Season: 45-14)

Argyle Liberty Christian over Dallas Bishop Lynch
McKinney Christian over Dallas Bishop Dunne
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Arlington Pantego Christian over Arlington Grace Prep
Dallas Shelton over Tyler All Saints
Austin Regents over Austin Brentwood Christian
San Antonio Holy Cross over Temple Central Texas Christian
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Christian
Houston Lutheran South over The Woodlands Christian
Houston Cypress Christian over Houston Northland Christian
League City Bay Area Christian over Houston Westbury Christian

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Week 6/10 Picks 2020

We cycle around to another week. November is near. In the past that might have been the month with title games, this year we will press almost the whole way to Christmas. Its great to have games every week and we'll see what the wheel of uncertainty might bring us this week. Maybe something unprecedented or unparalleled? 2 state final rematches make for some interesting headlines for starters. Good luck on the road to state this week. 

This Week: (Season: 27-10)

Tyler Grace Community @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers have been incredibly dominant on the season, posting margins of victory of 42, 36, 73, and 76. The DC defense has allowed just 26 points and none since October 2nd. The Cougars figured to be the strongest opposition in District 2 for DC with TCCH's departure and have largely delivered on that expectation coming with a 4-0 record to match the Chargers start to the season. Its been a less dominant though for the Cougars. The season opening win over Frisco Legacy looks better each week as Legacy continues to post wins in District 1. Only besting Cypress Christian in OT is a bit concerning. Both teams last opponent was McKinney Christian and both scored 70+ against the Mustangs. In contrast though, Grace saw the Mustangs post 54 in response. I wouldn't say it was close to the end as the Cougars had a 20+ point lead for much of the contest, but the contrast in defensive strength makes for a difficult outlook if you're the Cougars. The Chargers totals are probably a little inflated given the opposition they've faced, but I just don't see Grace being able to slow down DC enough to keep pace. The shutout streak should end, but with the game in Mesquite I can't pick the Cougars here. Let's be honest though, we kinda knew where this pick was headed. Chargers win 42-20.

McKinney Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard were off to a really nice looking 3-0 start including wins over Fort Worth Christian and UIL Anahuac, then they took a stern beating in Addison last week. TCA shutout the Guard, 42-0. There is a bit of a trap set here for Brook Hill with Tyler Grace and Dallas Christian the remaining teams on the schedule after this. The Mustangs are 2-3 on the season, but enter on two ugly defensive outings. 149 points in 2 weeks is a lot. The Mustangs have been a strong offensive team in the past, even in the struggles since moving to Division II. In 5 wins last season they scored 40+ in 4 of them. They have 59 in a win this year and 54 in 2 losses. Going 1-2 in games where you score 50 is quite a feet. A week ago, I would have picked Brook Hill to win by 20 or more. After the shutout last week I have a little bit of pause. I think the Guard are better, but the Mustangs should be in the game with their offense. I think something similar to the Grace game is possible, but its hard to predict 120 combined points, so not quite that many. Guard win 42-35.

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- At the start of the season this would have been a no doubt pick for Faith. The game probably wouldn't have made the top section of this column and would have been relegated to Quick Hits. Now, the Eagles are at 2-0 in district play and could potentially clinch the top spot in District 1 with the right set of results this week. The Lions figured to be a high finisher in District 1 but have struggled out of the gates at just 2-2. The Lions loss to Southwest Christian was the first upsetting of the expected order this season. The Eagles then followed that by beating the same Southwest squad with a dominant 2nd half. The success of Southwest running the ball against Faith has to be encouraging for Legacy given the similar offensive ideas. Given the game is in Grapevine, I like Faith to be better than they were against Southwest since that was a road game. Eagles look to be in the better position here and should get to 3-0 in district play to my eyes. Legacy wins 30-20.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Plano John Paul II -- A rematch of last year's title game definitely has to make the list this week. The Panthers are 5-0 and its hard to imagine anyone else as the top choice in Division I right now. Parish enters this week at 5-0 and having held the All Saints offense to just 7 points last week. It hasn't been all sunshine for the Parish as they allowed 24 points to Liberty who is 0-5 right now though controlled the game throughout and then pulled one from the fire in Midland. MCS really should have been Parish on October 9th, but that's a credit to how good the Panthers are. The same MCS squad though went to Plano last week and took a 24-13 loss to the Cardinals. John Paul has a long history of pretty ugly football, but Coach Teague has found plenty of good play in the last two seasons. I wasn't really expecting the Cardinals to match last season's playoff success, but limiting MCS to just 13 perks up a little hope for JP2. The Panthers though are too much again. Even in the strange pandemic season the 89-21 combined margin of last year's 2 meetings is too tall a mountain to climb. Panthers win 42-14.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Midland Christian -- The Saints scored a season opening win over Azle by the firecracker score of 70-50. After 2 cancellations All Saints dropped its first two district games, but they were against the expected top 2 of Parish and Nolan. The Mustangs had the odds on favorites, Parish Episcopal, on the ropes and didn't cash in. MCS followed that up with an offensive struggle against John Paul falling on the road, 24-13. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory. The Mustangs at least have a district win on the board, but both teams have to be feeling like they should be in the mix for the top of the district and the losses keep piling up. The Mustangs offensive performance against JP2 last week will not lead to a win here. The Saints offensive performance against Parish last week will not lead to a win here. Certainly the home game plays into MCS favor this week. The Mustangs are not usually the bunch to put two clunkers in a row and I think find their way back to a win. I think both teams get their offenses going again though. Midland Christian wins 40-35.

Corpus Christi John Paul II @ Austin Regents -- The Knights continue to dominate District 3 in the regular season. A 5-0 start has included scoring 42+ in all 5 games and just 1 opponent has reached double digits. They seem primed for another run to the title game. A possible double bye in the last of the regular season into the playoffs might be the only obstacle I see in their way. The Centurions (because District 3 has all the good mascots) had just 2 winning seasons in the decade before last year. Last year's 8-2 team lost its pair of games by just 29 points combined. An 0-2 start this year has been followed with three straight district wins. As St. Michael's continues to pile up wins, a 3-1 district record looks quite good. The offensive numbers show just 25 points per game for the Centurions. With a 200 mile trip to the Travis County forest ahead, I can't see them having enough to overpower the Knights. Regents offense is too much, winning 42-14.

Houston Lutheran South @ Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian -- I don't like to promote yet another Eagles into the column, but the 4-1 start from Fort Bend Christian with 3 district wins merits their inclusion. While they have not seen the expected top teams in Lutheran South and Second Baptist yet, the Eagles offensive explosion makes the author think this could be interesting. Outputs of 55, 56, and 49 in three weeks makes this a tough ask for Lutheran South. The Pioneers are coming off a humbling 49-0 defeat against Second Baptist. Both teams dominated Victoria St. Joseph similarly with 49 points on the scoreboard. Home teams are a favorite of the author, but its hard to pick Eagles over Pioneers and Lutheran South has won 5 of the last 6 meetings by at least 35 points. I think this is the turnaround though for Fort Bend and the offense is too much for LSA. Throw in the fact they're coached by a Dallas Christian alum and we've got a pick. Eagles win 37-23.

Shiner St. Paul @ Hallettsville Sacred Heart -- The smallest 11-man programs may not get the attention often, but these two always play the big games. Separated by just 14 miles, they've played 19 times since 2005 including at least 2 state title games. The two time defending champion Cardinals enter at 3-1 having put up 49 points in 2 of their last 3. Both teams lost close games to San Antonio Holy Cross and despite being 2 days short of November when this is played its still early in this season. The Indians have struggled a little, but did score a win last week. They will need to score more than their season high of 19 to win this one though. The Cardinals look to be the favorite here, but these two seemingly always play close games. Two meetings last year were won by St. Paul by just 11 points combined. Cardinals make it 4 in a row over the Indians. St. Paul wins 30-20. 

Quick Hits: (Season: 35-14)

Plano Prestonwood Christian over Dallas Bishop Lynch
Fort Worth Nolan over Argyle Liberty Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Cedar Hill Newman International
Brownsville St. Joseph over Austin Hyde Park
Austin Brentwood Christian over Boerne Geneva
Dallas Covenant over Dallas Shelton
Arlington Grace Prep over Dallas First Baptist
The Woodlands Christian over Victoria St. Joseph
Houston Cypress Christian over Houston Northland Christian
Houston St. Thomas over Houston St. Pius X

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Week 5/9 Picks 2020

The roller coaster goes on as we spin the wheel to see who plays who this week. Division I District 1 is particularly fluid from week to week, but it looks like everyone is in action this week. The Division II wheel is more form a competition standpoint. Seems like anyone could win those games each week. With everyone in the playoffs it promises to be a wild November and December. Good luck and safe travels for another week. 

This Week: (Season: 21-9)

Dallas Christian @ McKinney Christian -- The Chargers play their 1st road game of the season on October 23rd. I feel comfortable guaranteeing that is the latest 1st road trip in school history. DC pummeled Bishop Dunne last week, 73-0, and have scored at least 48 points in all three outings this season. Further, the Chargers have allowed less than 9 points per game to this point as well. The Mustangs dropped their district opener last week in a trip to Tyler, falling to Grace Community 73-54. Visions of an offensive past for Tyler Grace set up for a potentially interesting game with DC next week. However, this one comes first. The Mustangs are off to a 2-2 start and have scored 54 or more points in 3 of those 4 games. Somehow they've lost 2 of those three games. Given the success of the DC offense so far this year it appears to set up for plenty of points for the Chargers. I think the Mustangs will score a bit here and if they can keep away from the early deficit they should be more competitive than last year's 42-0 shutout loss. That said, this looks to be a game where the Chargers are the clear favorite. Mustangs score their first points in three meetings with DC, but fall. Chargers win 43-14.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Addison Trinity Christian -- The Trojans scored an upset win over FWC last week, 42-38. FWC was coming off two cancelled games and having lost to this Brook Hill squad to open the season. TCA trailed by 10 with just 6 minutes to play before securing the victory. The Guard are having one of their best seasons in Division II and with the chaotic results in District 1 so far appear to be an interesting candidate for a deep run. The Brook Hill 3-0 start hasn't really been paced by the offense or defense. They scored 34 and 37 in two wins but allowed 27 and 34. When the offense managed just 21, they held the opposition to 9. The Trojans are coming off a horrific losing streak, but have 2 wins already this season. This should be a competitive game. I think Brook Hill is the better team and TCA can't find two comebacks in two weeks. Guard win 35-28.

Fort Worth Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- Its been a rocky start for the Cardinals with a 3 point loss to Brook Hill to open the season followed by 2 cancelled games. Then they went ahead 38-28 with just 6 minutes to play last week in Addison before TCA scored 2 late TDs. The Cardinals also have yet to play a home game and actually will not host a varsity contest in North Richland Hills until November. In contrast the Eagles were off to a great start with big wins over Prince of Peace, Bishop Dunne, and then sound defeat of Grapevine Faith to let everyone know they'd be in the mix. At 3-0, I picked them to beat Frisco Legacy last week and after a very competitive first half that included a Southwest lead and a 19-19 tie they failed to notch a point in the 2nd half. Already at 1-1 this presents a chance for the Eagles to get to 1st or 2nd in the district. FWC still has all 4 district games to play and would be unable to pass Southwest in the standings with a loss here without a 3-way tie. The Cardinals offense has scored 34 and 38 in the 2 games so far, but they've faltered defensively. The Eagles allowed just 14 through 3 games before Legacy posted 46. If there are a bunch of points scored in this one I think Southwest is in trouble, but if they can limit the FWC like they did Faith they may win by a more than a handful. Eagles win at home 30-14.

Flower Mound Coram Deo @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- The Eagles appeared to be their usual middle rung team in District 1. They were beaten handily by Tyler Grace and blown out by San Antonio Cornerstone. A 3-point win over TCA just doesn't move the needle much given TCA's last two seasons. However, TCA's win over FWC and Legacy's 2nd half beatdown of Southwest puts the Eagles right back near the top of the heap. Much like Brook Hill in District 2 they appear to be a good candidate for a upset run like Plano John Paul II had last year. The Lions struggles in Division II have continued this year, but the gap appears to be narrowing. Consecutive losses to Brook Hill and Faith sting, but were by just 12 and 14 respectively. That was a 37 point improvement on last year's Brook Hill game and 14 points closer than the previous best against Faith. The Lion defense will have to be what keeps them in the game. The Lions could never get a 2nd half stop to put them in position for a go-ahead score and trailed the entire 2nd half. With Legacy's running attack getting the lead early would be huge for Coram Deo. Given the 2nd half gashing of Southwest, I just can't expect Legacy to slow down against the Lions. Eagles win 44-25.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The wheel of Division I District 1 match-ups lands on the revenge game for the Panthers. The Saints handed Parish their only loss of the 2019 championship campaign. The Panthers have run off 14 wins in a row since that game. The road trip to Midland Christian should have broken the streak, but Parish made the big plays at the big moments. Since then they consolidated that win by blowing out Prestonwood, scoring 55 in the process. The Saints opened with a dizzying 70-50 win over Azle before 2 cancellations. Last they suffered a 41-27 defeat to Nolan, never recovering from a 21-0 1st quarter. 91 points in 2 games is not really the defense you'd like to see to play the defending champions. The Saints will be a tough out for the Panthers, but I can't see them stopping the Parish attack enough. However, they are the last team to do so. The Saints keep it close, but I think the march to a repeat continues for Parish. Panthers win 42-28.

Austin Regents @ Brownsville St. Joseph -- The Knights get back into the upper section with an early start in the far southern reaches of Texas. Regular season records can always feel a bit hollow, but Regents has lost just twice in the main portion since 2016. A span of over 40 games. With TCCH out of the organization, the title has to be the main target for the Knights. This will be the first matchup with the Bloodhounds in the schools' histories. With just a 1-2 start to the season its not a promising campaign for the Hounds. However, they soundly beat a Geneva squad that doesn't figure to be a push over. Last week's domination by St. Michael's is not encouraging though since Regents beat them by 34. While its not going to be a laugher, I don't see how St. Joseph comes anywhere close to scoring enough. Knights win 42-14.

Houston Lutheran South @ Houston Second Baptist -- Our last contest ventures to Houston where the Pioneers have never quite matched the success of the 2014 team that lost a Monday playoff game to DC. They've not gone back to cellar, but also haven't found those big wins to get them to the top of the district standings. The Eagles are the longtime heavyweights in the Houston area Division II district having lost just 3 district games since the start of 2013. Though all 3 losses were to the Pioneers. However, those are the only 3 wins for Lutheran South in their last 13 meetings. A loss to Port Lavaca Calhoun can be forgiven, though 63 points is a lot to give up. After dominating The Woodlands Christian last week this should be a tougher challenge. The question for me is, how good is the Lutheran South defense? 12 points against Victoria St. Joseph - great! 56 points against John Cooper - problem! With the game at Second Baptist, I don't think the Pioneers have enough. Eagles win 42-28. 

Quick Hits: (Season: 27-12)

Fort Worth Nolan over Bishop Lynch
Midland Christian over Plano John Paul II
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Argyle Liberty Christian
Arlington Grace Prep over Waco Reicher
Austin Brentwood Christian over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Houston Village School over Beaumont Kelly
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Victoria St. Joseph
Dallas Covenant over Tyler T.K. Gorman
Lubbock Christian over Lubbock Trinity Christian
Dallas First Baptist over Dallas Shelton
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Schertz John Paul II

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Week 4/8 Picks 2020

Another week of chaos awaits us on the road to state. District play is underway for basically everybody, but the nature of the 2020 season makes that line not as clear as most years. Let me know if you see a game not happening, we'll get through this together. We're very DFW focused this week, but that's because there's plenty of good matchups in the northern half this week. Good luck and safe travels! 

This Week: (Season: 15-7)

Bishop Dunne @ Dallas Christian -- In the two most recent meetings the Falcons demolished the Chargers in route to a state title in 2014 and a state runner-up finish in 2015, winning by a combined score of 96-17. A brief power outage was all that slowed Dunne in those two meetings.This year though the teams are headed in different directions. The Chargers have run all over two opponents, netting wins by a combined score of 104-26. The Falcons have yet to score to land at a somewhat surprising 0-3, and trailing 170-0 on the season. Going into the season (way back before the world turned upside down) I would have had this as a possible district title game. Tyler Grace figured to be in the mix, but with TCCH departure from TAPPS and Dunne's move down from Division I these seemed to be the contenders in District 2. Rather its the 12OT loss to John Paul that was near the beginning of the current 8 game losing streak, or the pandemic, or transfers, or something else entirely, things have taken an ugly turn for the Falcons. DC took a bye last week to set the stage for the 4 district games, and I'm not sure you can take much from a win over North Dallas. Scoring 56 against Liberty seems to bode well for the Chargers, and I think they'll carry that form into the this one. Falcons will get on the board though I think. Chargers win 35-6.

McKinney Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The district opener out east comes for these two schools. The Cougars have to be looking at the early struggles of Bishop Dunne as a major opprutunity to reach a home playoff position. Based on the last alignment, everyone will be looking at McKinney Christian as a must win game to finish high in the standings. That is not to say the Mustangs will be a pushover for anyone, but losing all 9 district games the last two years makes you the underdog for sure. The Mustang offense has been unable to produce against Division II opponents, managing just 12 points in 4 district game last season. The Cougars offense has taken a step back the last couple of seasons, but appeared to be in excellent shape through 2 weeks in 2020. Then, it took OT to reach 13 against Cypress Christian last week. If Tyler Grace produces a strong offensive game here they win handily. The Mustangs might have something, but with COVID and just 3 games in its really a mystery. If they hold Grace to 20, McKinney Christian wins. I think the Grace has too much at home though. Cougars win 33-20.

Flower Mound Coram Deo @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- Well not every same mascot pairing can be the Eagles. The Lions from Grapevine were the clear favorite to start this weird year in District 1. It took just 1 district game among the group of 5 to change that completely. Faith was dominated at Southwest Christian, falling 33-7. This puts the Lions at just 1-2 so far after reaching the semifinals last year. The Lions from the North side of Lake Grapevine, are a bit like McKinney Christian. Their time in Division has generally been unkind. In 2014 and 2015 in Division II they went just 3-7 and lost all 12 district games. The three seasons that followed in Division III had win totals of 8, 8, and 11. This season Coram Deo is 1-1 with a shutout of Grace Prep (who shut out Bishop Dunne) and a relatively close loss to Brook Hill. In the preseason, I would have picked Faith by 30+. Now, it seems this is a bit closer. I do not think this is the the night for a big Division II win for Coram Deo, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it this season. Faith wins at home, 35-21.

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- Here we find our familiar Eagles on Eagles match. Since a road playoff win at DC in 2006, Southwest has posted just 2 winning seasons. Both finishing at 6-5 marks. Starting the year with a blowout of Prince of Peace pointed to a better team on Lake Benbrook but isn't really a head turning result. Blowing out Bishop Dunne will wake a few people up, but then seeing Dunne's struggles this year knocks it down a bit. Then, we see the win over Faith. Not just by a point, but a convincing domination at 33-7. Both teams completed only 2 passes each. The difference Faith threw 21 while Southwest threw just 5 and the Eagles out gained them by over 250 yards. Legacy has been the snake bit team in Division II, unable to close out the big wins when they had leads. That changed last year, securing 2nd place over FWC with a late season win. This year, a season opening loss to Tyler Grace looked a reversion to old form. They did secure a comeback win over TCA, but were dominated by San Antonio Cornerstone in a hastily scheduled game last week. Expect very few passes in this one, even with a 7:30 start there's a good chance this finishes before 10. Legacy has to think this is their opening with Faith falling last week and a wide open district schedule ahead. Its a tricky one, but I think the Southwest result last week is impressive enough and their at home. Southwest wins 30-20, and gets to 2-0 and a commanding lead in District 1.

Fort Worth Christian @ Addison Trinity Christian -- When last we saw the Cardinals, it was September and they were losing by 3 to Brook Hill. After two cancellations, FWC still will have the entire district schedule to play in the final 4 weeks after a non-district clash here. The Trojans broke their 21 game losing streak with an opening win over Pittsburg, but surrendered a 2nd half lead at the Star to Frisco Legacy. They even had a deflected lineman touchdown catch and couldn't close the deal. There are a number of ways this one could go. How sharp will the Cardinals be after sitting out two weeks? How much improvement has TCA made, given Pittsburg is 0-5? If FWC proves to be a top flight team in District 1, what does the loss to Brook Hill mean for the playoffs? I just do not know. I think the Cardinals offense should push them past TCA here. The Trojans have scored 38 points in 2 games while FWC scored 34 in their lone game so far. This weird season certainly pushes for home teams, but the Cardinals get back to it. FWC wins 35-19.

Midland Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The old rivalry is back for another year. The brief separation in Divisions deprived us of the opprutunity to mention "The Game of Inches" or "Showergate" from the past. In many ways now, that is the distant past. In the present, the Mustangs controlled the game with Parish most of the way last week. They came up just 4 seconds short in the end, falling 34-32. In 6 halves of football this season the Mustangs have played well in 5 of them. Only the 2nd half at Nolan left much to be desired. A rematch with Parish might be in the cards for MCS and could turn out differently, or they woke up Parish with a game effort and they'll go on to stomp the division. The Warriors have been much less impressive through 3 weeks. A 2nd half that really got out of hand at DC followed by being largely dominated by Parish and Frisco Reedy. The defense simply has to be better for Liberty. Allowing 56, 50, and 42, through 2 weeks does not bode well for the rest of district play. The Warriors will need a real turnaround to get in the district win column. If the game was at the former Dwight Gailey Stadium, now the home of UNT soccer, it might turn the odds. Mustangs win 42-18.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- At risk of jinxing things, Prestonwood is finally on track to play its scheduled opponent for first time since Week 1/5. The Lions dropped a 10 point decision at Prosper to open the season before dominating Fort Worth Southwest (public school version) in a game that was scheduled just 6 hours before it was played. Last week's district opener saw a 14 point 4th quarter lead go away quickly ending in a 14 point defeat against Nolan. The Panthers made the long trip to Midland and for large stretches of the game were the 2nd best team on the field. Ultimately they were able to make a few big plays late in the game and win, but they looked beatable for most of the game. Last year they were pretty much dominant all year except for the All Saints loss and the TCCH OT win. The Panthers should be the better team here, but I haven't found the surprise of the week yet so I want to go with Prestonwood. I just can't quite do it though. Parish wins 40-30.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Fort Worth Nolan -- For the 2nd straight week, Nolan's district opponent is unavailable but there is another team in the district without an opponent so they'll pull forward a district game. The Vikings ran off 4 straight 4th quarter touchdowns to turn a 14 point deficit into a 14 point victory against Prestonwood. Combined with a scoreboard dominant 2nd half against Midland Christian and Nolan appears to be the closers of District 1. The Vikings have won 11 district games in row, but haven't been great in the playoffs lately. The Saints come in to this one as a mystery. Last season they beat the eventual champion Parish Episcopal and then tailed off badly. Injuries played a role for sure, but it was still a stunning fall. A 70-50 win over Azle to open the season was followed by 2 cancelled weeks. A big district battle of undefeated squads is normal for October 16, but to only have 3 wins between them is quite a turn. I think Vikings are up for the task and with game at Nolan and All Saints off for two weeks, they just squeak by. Vikings win 35-30.  

Quick Hits: (Season: 19-9)

Anahuac over Bullard Brook Hill
Austin Regents over Boerne Geneva
Corpus Christi John Paul II over Austin Hyde Park
Austin Brentwood Christian over San Antonio St. Anthony's
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Spring Frassati Catholic
Houston Second Baptist over The Woodlands Christian
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Antonian
San Antonio Central Catholic over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Fort Worth Lake Country over Weatherford Christian
Tyler T.K. Gorman over Dallas First Baptist
Shiner St. Paul over Bryan Brazos Christian
Desoto over Cedar Hill Trinity Christian

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Week 3/7 Picks 2020

I'm not sure how this season ends. A very normal statement in Week 3, but means very different things in 2020. The district standings in many districts will be complicated. The results will be confusing. I'm glad we're playing and we'll make make the best of it in this space, but it was quite a challenge to find enough games. Schedules and picks subject to change. 

This Week: (Season: 10-4)

Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The top spot has to go somewhere with DC taking the week off. The Lions have been one of the many programs that feel like TCCH kept state titles out of their grasp, but there can only be one winner each year. Faith posted an impressive opening win over Bishop Dunne, 56-0. Then they were unable to consolidate that win falling to UIL program Nevada Community 23-17 last week. In the pre-season, I would have had a pretty strong feeling this is a Faith blowout. However, the Eagles also played Bishop Dunne this season and beat them 66-0. So I guess on common opponent we have a pretty even matchup. A season ago the Lions won a road game over the Eagles 42-14. It seems Southwest is a bit better than previous seasons and should compete for a spot in the playoffs, especially since 4 of 5 make the playoffs in District 1. Being the only game in District 1 this week means the winner goes to 1st place. However, I can't get past preseason expectations for this pick. Lions wins 35-20.

Flower Mound Coram Deo @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard scored a mild upset over Fort Worth Christian in their opener and then both teams were off the next week. FWC is still not back in action due to the virus, while the Guard will look to score another victory over District 1. After 8 wins a season ago, Brook Hill will be looking to compete for one of the home playoff spots in District 2 and Bishop Dunne's early season struggles have to be encouraging for the Guard. The Lions were a Division III playoff team last season, but only managed 5 wins for the season. Brook Hill bested Coram Deo last season 49-0. The Lions did open the season with a Lion shutout over Grace Prep, but I'm not sure where they find enough offense in this one although they seemed to awaken after being shut out by Brook Hill last season. Guard win 40-13.

McKinney Christian vs. Lubbock Trinity Christian @ Vernon -- The Mustangs will travel west to take on a relative newcomer to the football landscape. Its just the 7th season of football on the Caprock for the Lions (lot of Lions this week). After an ugly start last year the Lions rolled off 4 in a row to get a chance at the district title against the more notable football power of Lubbock Christian. Trinity lost that one by just 5, but then fell at home in round 1 to Colleyville Covenant. The Lions lost by a single point to that same Covenant squad last week with a tricky Saturday morning road game. The Mustangs have struggled in Division II, but performed well against Division III opponents in a 4-0 start. The Mustangs have split their opening pair, scoring 54 in their opener but still losing by 24 to Eastland and then blowing out Prince of Peace. This is the 2nd neutral site game with a western team this season for McKinney Christian, a product of these strange times. The Mustangs offense proves to be too much after posting 113 points in 2 weeks. McKinney Christian wins 48-38.

Fort Worth Nolan @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- Excellent decision in District 1 to go ahead and have these two play since both opponents cancelled. Better to get a game out of the way and fill in the pieces later. The Vikings drew a tough card in this pandemic season having to open the season with a district game against Midland Christian. They answered the bell though with a 38-21 win where they held the MCS offense to very little in the 2nd half. The game also featured a thrilling start with a kickoff return making it 7-7 less than 1 minute into the game. Nolan figures to be a prime contender in Division I as they look for revenge on a 2nd round playoff loss after the started 11-0. Going to be hard to win 11 this year, given...all of this. The Lions (another one!) scheduled Fort Worth Southwest at the last possible moment last week after All Saints cancelled due to the virus. Prestonwood dominated the Raiders 45-7 to even their record at 1-1. The Lions always pose a strong offense, but have been much stronger defensively in recent years. This would seem to be a close game to the end. In the split alignment of last season, these two did not meet and haven't played since 2017. The Lions have won the last 4 meetings. With the game at Prestonwood, I lean that way but I think this is the best game in TAPPS this week. Lions win 30-25.

Parish Episcopal @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs dominated a Wall team that I picked to beat them, and played Nolan tough a week ago. The Panthers have dominated two district opponents but in only 1 game that counted as a district game. Neither Lynch nor Liberty was close to toppling the champs. Only All Saints bested Parish a year ago before injuries took down the Saints. The Parish Episcopal offense scored 40 in all but 2 games last season and has continued that this year with outings of 43 and 50. Traveling to the Permian Basin certainly maximizes the Mustangs chances this week, but I think MCS will need an offensive outing that they can't produce to win this one. Hard to see the Mustangs getting blown out at home, but equally hard to see them getting over the hump here (but if anyone can its them). Panthers win 44-30.

Austin Regents @ Austin Hyde Park -- The Knights continue to be featured in this space since they've made 4 straight title games. Seemingly half of other games being cancelled doesn't hurt either. Regents continues to dominate District 3, posting 34 points or more in their last 9 district wins. The Knights last lost a district game in 2015, falling 25-24 to...Hyde Park. Just for fun, that game was on October 9th that year. A trip to the Quarries is never easy. The Panthers posted a good season in 2017, before taking two pretty tough years in '18 and '19. It has not been a good start with losses to Holy Cross and Geneva to open this season. Hyde Park is up against it here, but it is a season for strange things. Regents wins 40-10.

San Antonio Central Catholic @ Houston St. Thomas -- The notable Catholic schools in the big cities match in an early district showdown. The Eagles have controlled this pairing winning each of the meetings in the last 4 years. A couple of the meetings have been tight to the end with St. Thomas winning by just 2 a year ago. The Buttons enter on the much better start after posting wins over Geneva and San Antonio Christian. Its been an 0-2 beginning for the Eagles. I don't know that these two will compete for the top spot, but St. Thomas was in the semifinal a year ago. This should be an interesting finish as I doubt the Buttons will push around Eagles, but I think Central has the better team this year. Buttons win 30-27.

Corpus Christ John Paul II @ San Antonio St. Anthony -- We're going to get some interesting teams in these picks this year and a great team name increases your chances. The Centurions will travel north to take on St. Anthony. The Yellowjackets dropped their opener to Regents last week, 44-6. The Centurions have started 0-2 losing to Ingleside and Austin St. Michaels. Even in a district where 5 of 8 make the playoffs it may be hard to get either of these teams to the playoffs. St. Anthony has finally been squeezed out of hosting games at Lang Field with buildings popping up around the campus as they will host this one at the University of Incarnate Word. Returning to TAPPS makes St. Anthony a difficult team to place. John Paul is coming off one of their best seasons in school history, posting 8 wins. Based on last year I'll take John Paul, but these two look to be pretty even. Centurions win 27-20.

Quick Hits: (Season: 12-7)

San Antonio Cornerstone over Frisco Legacy Christian
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over The Woodlands Christian
Dallas Shelton over Tyler T.K. Gorman
Shiner St. Paul over San Antonio Holy Cross
Houston Northland Christian over Beaumont Legacy Prep
Arlington Pantego Christian over Dallas First Baptist
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Weatherford Christian
Bryan Brazos Christian over Temple Central Texas Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Beaumont Kelly over Trinity Christian - Addison
Houston The Village School over Carrollton Prince of Peace

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Week 2/6 Picks 2020

Well we made it to a 2nd week. Unfortunately the stops and starts of a 2020 football season continued this week. At least 3 TAPPS games called off this week. Hope to see, 6 feet away at minimum, everyone out at a game this week. 

This Week: (Last Week: 4-2)

North Dallas @ Dallas Christian -- Well my initial plan to talk about the history of DC vs. FWC has been thwarted. So lets instead talk about the rich history between Dallas Christian and North Dallas High School. Well that was brief. I'm not going to say the two have never played, but its been a long time if they have. The Bulldogs have had tough decade or two winning just 30 games in the last 17 seasons according to MaxPreps. To further complicate matter for North Dallas, they are in 4A in the UIL so despite being in one of the largest school districts in the state their potential opponents in 4A could start practice on the August 3 while they did not start until after labor day. That means the Bulldogs are playing their season opener while others in 4A are playing their 6th game this week. The Chargers opened the season with a 2nd half domination of Argyle Liberty, ending at 56-14. I think its going to be a season full of results like that where you look the score and think "that's strange." I do not really think the gap between DC and Liberty is that wide, but it was in Liberty's opener. I suspect this could have similar effects. The Bulldogs were supposed to be playing Alvarado and then Farmersville. The Chargers were supposed to play Fort Worth Christian. They would up with each other. The Bulldogs seemed to be improving a year ago winning 3 games and only suffering ugly blowouts twice. I can't see it being enough in their opening game when the opponent has already played. Chargers win 44-14.

Beaumont Kelly Catholic @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars opened this odd 2020 campaign with a handy victory over Frisco Legacy Christian. The offense continues to be a potent unit for Grace with an opening display of 42 points. The Bulldogs were a state champion in the largest classification in 1998 and played a very competitive title game in 2011 against a Nolan squad that was winning 3 titles in 4 seasons. After that Kelly won just 16 games in 7 seasons, before responding with an 8-win season last year. The Bulldogs bested Tomball Christian Home School 27-19 in their opener. Notably it was their opponents 5th game of the season while being the Bulldogs opener. It seems that Kelly may be cycling back into a more competitive cycle, but I think the road trip here is just too big of an ask. Grace puts up enough points to win, 42-21.

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- A couple of years ago I would have been stunned to see this game on the schedule. It would have pitted one of the top contenders in Division I against a struggling Division II program. The Falcons never recovered from the 12 OT loss to John Paul last season, losing the last three by at least 28 points. This season did not start much better with Grapevine Faith posting a 56-0 drubbing. I think Bishop Dunne is better than that, but admittedly this early in a strange season it mostly a hunch. The Eagles were a playoff team a year ago, but that that meant they were the opening round sacrifice for TCCH. They did beat eventual SPC champion FW Country Day last year and pounded Prince of Peace in this season's opener, 56-7. This will provide us some early information about the balance between Districts 1 and 2. I would've expected preseason for the Falcons to be in the mix for the top spot in District 2, but if they are then it appears District 1 is way ahead with last week's blowout. The Eagles draw Faith in their district opener next week too. I like picking home teams in this modified season, but I think Dunne is still good enough for this win. Falcons win 36-20.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- Well in 2020 Week 2 means district play gets underway. With the brackets out this week, we know the goals for District 1 teams. Don't finish last. The 7 will make the playoffs with a bye for the district champion. Given the unknowns of this season, everyone but Parish figures to be in the mix for a home playoff game for finishing in the top 4. Parish should be clear of the group, but who knows. The main reason I say "who knows" is the Saints were the team that defeated eventual champion Parish Episcopal last year. Then injuries made them a non-threat in the playoffs. Both squads have been long known for putting up impressive offensive totals. In the Saints case, that comes in 2 different leagues. Then this is where I learned the game was cancelled and considered a no contest. Those district standings are going to be fun to explain at the end of the season. COVID wins 1-0.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- Instead will talk about the rest of District 1. Most notably the defending champions, Parish Episcopal. The dominant non-district win over Bishop Lynch, 43-7, stamps the Panthers right back at the top of the list of contenders. The Warriors suffered an ugly 2nd half in which DC scored repeatedly in a 56-14 pounding. For their first outing of the season, I thought Liberty played than that score. Its hard to overcome that through. The Panthers do have to travel up to Argyle in this one and that should help Liberty a bit. It won't be close to enough though. Parish wins 44-20.

Plano John Paul II @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Cardinals were the shocking state finalist last season after being a perpetual doormat in Division I. Last week's opener against Lucas Lovejoy did not go well, with Lovejoy beating up JPII 58-20. The Friars saw a dominant Parish Episcopal start their title defense with a 43-7 victory over them. It seems both teams may need to rely on their defenses to help the offense. Last year the Cardinal scored a 21-13 home victory last year in district play to make us think they could compete the playoffs and not be the same ole' Cardinals. Coach Teague deserves a ton of credit for changing the culture at John Paul, the players probably deserve more. This should be a game similar to last year, with points hard to come by. I suspect the Cardinals start to regain their form from last year. Cardinals win 28-21.

Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Nolan -- The Mustangs were very impressive in a 41-6 rout of UIL contender Wall. The Vikings saw their first game cancelled due to the virus. Once again in 2020 we do strange things like start a season with district play. The Vikings will no doubt be ready to get the season going after ending last season with a stunning blowout defeat against John Paul II. The defense drove Nolan to a district title and 11-0 start allowing more than 20 points just once in those 11 wins. What does this season bring? Expect the unexpected. MCS has largely struggled in Division I, but has never been an easy out in the playoffs. Things would seem to set up decently for them. All Saints cancelled due to COVID. Nolan will play its opener while the Mustangs ride high. Lynch and JP2 were blown out in Week 1. It could be the Mustangs and Parish in contention for the top spot, but they can not afford to look ahead to next week's home game in the Permian Basin against the champs. Mustangs offense is going to well for the Vikings to overcome. MCS wins 35-21.

San Antonio St. Anthony @ Austin Regents -- The Knights dominated St. Michael's to start the season and seem primed for another run at the title game. The Yellowjackets did not draw an ideal opponent to start this challenging season. A 5-5 season that lacked a noteworthy win is not really the jumping off point you'd be looking for in a return to a regular TAPPS schedule. The confines of the Austin area forest hosts this one where Regents is nearly impossible to beat. When you rarely lose regular season games, you lose even fewer at home. On the road in their first game of the season, I can't see this being St. Anthony's day. Now if the game was at Lang Field we might have a different story. Knights win 40-10.

Brownsville St. Joseph @ Austin Brentwood Christian -- Our search for the best mascots can not miss this game. The Bears will host their district opener after an OT win over Waco Reicher to start the season. The Bloodhounds, despite having one of the best mascots in TAPPS, have been unable to achieve much success in the playoffs. Even when hosting 1st round games the postseason has been a struggle for St. Joseph. Having to open with district play probably does the Bloodhounds no favors, and the 5 hour bus ride on construction riddled I-35 wouldn't be my first choice either. The Bears were not particularly impressive in defeating Reicher, but should have the upper hand given the circumstances here. Bears win 30-20. 

Quick Hits: (Last Week: 4-6)

McKinney Christian over Carrollton Prince of Peace
Grapevine Faith Christian over Nevada Community
Frisco Legacy Christian over Trinity Christian - Addison
Boerne Geneva over Austin Hyde Park
Houston St. Pius X over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Arlington Pantego Christian over Dallas Shelton
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Lubbock Trinity Christian
Dallas Covenant over Tyler All Saints
The Woodlands Christian over Houston Westbury Christian
Shiner St. Paul over Temple Central Texas Christian