Tuesday, December 4, 2018

State Championship Picks 2018

The road has reached its end once again. There have been a few twists and turns. Some expected participants (TCCH, Regents, Dunne), a few newcomers (Lake Country, Geneva, Willow Park), and some we wrote off earlier but they got here anyway (Lynch, St. Paul). There year includes entirely too many Eagles, but interestingly all three are in their first 11-man state final. TAPPS will be streaming the games this year on tapps.biz, for the low price of $14.99 per game. You can also purchase access to all 4 for $36. Special shout to the Tornadoes of Lone Star North and the Defenders of Austin Veritas for reaching the 6-man title game with interesting mascots. Its too much for me to do 6-man every week so I'm not going to jump in the state finals, but best of luck and congratulations to those programs on a fantastic season. Good luck and safe travels to Waco.
 
Division I: Dallas Bishop Lynch vs. Dallas Bishop Dunne -- Friday 7:00 PM -- The Friars and Falcons met for the title just 2 seasons ago. That season the Friars had finished 5th in the always tough District 1 before upsetting Prestonwood in the semifinals. In 2016, the Falcons had just squeaked out a 4th place finish in the same district after a 5-5 regular season. This year, Bishop Lynch has taken a similar path to the final. The Friars exploded for 50 points in the Week 10 surprise over Prestonwood but still wound up 4th after losing to Parish and Dunne in the district slate. They appeared to be in deep trouble last week against Liberty before a 27 point 4th quarter paced them to a 65-45 victory. The Falcons "Red Swarm" defense has controlled the opposition all year, even in defeat. In Bishop Dunne's 3 losses the opponent scored just 17, 19, and 17. Only Parish last week managed 3 touchdowns against the Falcons this year. No one else reached 20. Not Desoto, not St. Pius X (twice), not Prestonwood, and not Bishop Lynch. How the Friars get on the scoreboard is the main question for this one. If they find the 65 point form of last week or the 50 point form from the Prestonwood game, even if they don't post that many the Falcons will have a hard time keeping pace. However, if the Falcons do what they do to most teams and turn them over and stifle a rushing attack they may only need 17 to win. Falcons defense holds strong and they repeat the result from Oct. 26. Dunne wins their 5th state title 21-14.

Division II: Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill vs. Regents School of Austin -- Saturday 7:00 PM -- Once the brackets came out, the list of expected finalists in 2018 started with the Tigers and Knights. The Tigers have been the clear favorites for the 2018 title since they beat Dallas Christian in the 2017 regular season. The Knights are in their 3rd consecutive state title game having fallen to Grapevine Faith in 2016 and these Tigers in 2017. Regents dropped a lone game on the season to San Antonio Central Catholic. The first regular season loss for the Knights since 2015. They rebounded nicely with no opponent passing 18 points after that. The Knights were held to under 34 just once in that strech and only 3 times in 12 games this season. They will need at least that many point and probably more to track down the potent Tigers attack. TCCH looks to complete the 14-0 perfect season and capture a 2nd straight state title. Only Bishop Lynch and Melissa have kept the Tigers under 30 and the same two are the only ones to play the Tigers to closer than 21 points. Against Division II opposition the Tigers have been overwhelming, winning by an average score of 51.75 to 9.5. They've won the three playoff games by a combined 154-14. Regents probably has the best defense among those opponents and maybe learned a thing or two last year. I just can't see it being enough. Tigers win their 6th state title, 40-20.

Division III: Willow Park Trinity Christian vs. Geneva School of Boerne -- Friday 12:00 PM -- The Eagles claim their first state title...ok I have more than that, but it is Eagles vs. Eagles and both in their 1st 11-man state championship game. The Eagles have been an up and coming program, winning at least 10 games in all 3 seasons they've been in an 11-man district. This year they dropped 3 of their first 4 but to top programs, including Division II semifinalist Second Baptist. Against Division III and smaller opponents Geneva is undefeated, including a 38-6 pounding of Division IV finalist Shiner St. Paul. No one in the division has managed to score more than 19 either. The Eagles of Parker County have posted a matching 10-3 record and also have yet to lose to a Division III opponent. They dealt Coram Deo their only 2 losses of the season including last weeks semifinal victory. Trinity has won offensive games against good teams (37-14 over Lubbock Christian) they've won defensive games (13-7 over Coram Deo) and they've won blowouts (42-7 over Pantego). These are both well rounded teams and this should be a tight game. Willow Park Trinity Christian claims their 1st state title, 30-27.

Division IV: Fort Worth Lake Country Christian vs. Shiner St. Paul -- Saturday 12:00 PM -- One team is in its 10th state final. The other in its 1st. Shiner St. Paul is a favorite of this space for playing great 11-man football for years despite an enrollment below that of many 6-man programs. This year it seemed the good run for the Cardinals had come to an end. After reaching 5 out of 8 state finals, the Cardinals started 0-7. They were dominated by Geneva, who they beat the year before. Managed just 7 points against the Austin Saints. After finally reaching the win column they were held to 7 in defeat again by Halletsville Sacred Heart. Then after a 1-8 start, the Cardinals won 4 in a row including 3 playoff games and avenging the loss to Sacred Heart. I'm not sure what to make of this bunch other than never count out a champ. The Eagles have reached their 1st state final after an 8-4 season. Most thought First Baptist would be the one in this slot, but the Eagles soared past the Saints with 56 points. With that blowout, the Eagles have not played a close game late since their loss to Colleyville Covenant. There is actually a common opponent for these two. Way back in week 2, the Eagles fell to Central Texas Christian 15-14. Those Lions provided the opposition in St. Paul's first win of the season, 34-13 in Week 8. I'm not sure this is much to go on, but I don't foresee either team controlling this one from the kickoff. Should be an exciting finish and that is what the Cardinals are great at, exciting close finishes in state championship games. Cardinals capture their 7th state title, 28-26.

Season: 84-22
Quick Hits: 102-28

So we reach the end of another season. Thank you all for reading, participating, and indulging my quirks in these picks each week. Hopefully we'll be back next season, as once Sunday hits everyone's undefeated again.