Regional Playoff Picks 2019

Ready for another week of playoff football? The trophies are on the horizon, but who will reach Waco?

This Week: (Season: 76-16)

Division II

Grapevine Faith Christian School vs. Dallas Christian School @ Wildcat-Ram Stadium -- The Chargers and Lions meet in the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. In 2016, the Lions took a 2OT victory. In 2017, the Chargers dealt a shutout to advance to Round 2. Dallas Christian has enjoyed a largely dominant season, reaching 10 wins for the 7th time in 8 season. The Chargers held there first 6 opponents to 14 or less while 4 of the last 5 have scored at least 21. This has included the best of DC's opposition and the lone defeat at TCCH. The Lions fell just once on the season, in a neutral site game against UIL stalwart Canadian. The Lions have also posted strong defensive performances with just 4 opponents scoring more than 18. Both teams are strong at the quarterback position, and that seems to be the key in this game. Which QB will get the upper hand on the other's defense? I think this is a low slow scoring battle with a big surge late. In common opponents both teams saw Tyler Grace and FWC in the last two week. Each team played a similar game against Tyler Grace. Each established a sizable lead for a handy victory. A 45-27 win for DC is remarkably similar to a 48-28 win for Faith. The Chargers built a big lead over FWC before landing on a 46-21 victory. Faith edged FWC 27-23 for the district title. Not a ton of mystery in the punch line for this author. Chargers win 30-28.

Bullard Brook Hill School vs. Cedar Hill Trinity Christian School @ Athens -- The Guard and Tigers met just 2 weeks ago to close the regular season. Only two opponents scored more than 14 against TCCH this year. DC posted just 16 while Parish scored 33 in the Tigers lone defeat. The Guard have surged late in the season reaching 8-3 on the season. After securing two district wins and showing well in a 21-3 defeat to DC, Brook Hill was pounded 44-7 by the Tigers. The Tigers are the back-to-back state champions for a reason and I doubt the Guard can turn around 37 points in just 2 weeks. Maybe a bit of overconfidence could get in the way, but I doubt it. Tigers win handily, but a bit closer in Round 2. A nice road win in Round 1 for Brook Hill, TCCH to the semis 38-8.

Regents School of Austin vs. Houston Lutheran South Academy @ Hallettsville -- The Knights have reached the last 3 state championship games, losing all 3. Unfortunately, that means they are entering Buffalo Bills territory. The Pioneers have been a next level contender for several seasons in a row now, but have been unable to secure the big win. Most notably, a 2014 regional round game saw a Monday finish due to weather and a disappointing 44-41 loss for their best team. Both teams have posted impressive records this season, with Regents at 9-1 and LSA at 9-2. In the Knights 9 wins, the most points allowed is 14. Only Division I FW All Saints posted more than 2 TDs and took a victory from the Knights. The Pioneers 2 defeats came at the hands of undefeated Second Baptist (expected) and in OT to Concordia Lutheran (unexpected). The lack of overlapping opponents makes this one a tricky contest. LSA saw the Centurions score 36 last week, which makes me think Regents will score plenty this week. The Knights defense should be good enough to keep the Pioneers in check too. Regents back to the semis, 33-21.

Victoria St. Joseph High School vs. Houston Second Baptist School @ Wharton -- The Eagles have been the dominant force south of I-20 this year in Division II, reaching 11-0. The Flyers snagged a road win to reach Round 2 for the first time since 2009 where they lost a tight one to Parish Episcopal (17-15). St. Joseph has always been impressive for their ability to take long road trips and be ready to play. The Flyers had real chances to beat the eventual champions in both the 2008 and 2009 playoffs. This year's squad is probably more of an upstart that likely can not match the Eagles this week. The Flyers are just 6-3 thanks to some cancellations and limited Second Baptist to just 30 in their first meeting, the Eagles lowest output of the season. Last week's saw Brentwood give the Eagles a quality fight. Falling just 43-29 at SBS. The Eagles probably need a better defensive game to secure this win, but I also think Brentwood's offense might be stronger than the Flyers. A close battle to the end, but Second Baptist wins to set up the expected Regents-SBS showdown for a spot in the title game. Eagles to the semis, 30-20.

Division I

Fort Worth Nolan Catholic High School vs. Plano John Paul II High School @ Grapevine -- The Cardinals scored their first ever playoff win last week with a 21-16 victory over San Antonio Central. The Cardinals 8 wins is 4 more than any other season in program history. DC, Prestonwood, and Parish are the 3 to best JP2 this season. Only Parish blew out the Cardinals. The Vikings were back on track last week by dominating the defending state champion 45-14 and are now 11-0. In common opponents, the Vikings dominated Bishop Lynch 37-6. The Cardinals scored their first ever win over the Friars to close the regular season, 21-13. While these are not the Cardinals that lost 35 in a row and didn't win a game for 3 straight seasons. The Vikings are a well balanced team succeeding with both offense and defense on the road to 11-0. The form that Nolan showed to blast past Dunne is enough to win here, but it will not be a walkover. I just do not see the Cardinals posting enough points to win this week. Vikings win 35-21.

Dallas Parish Episcopal School vs. Midland Christian School @ Abilene Christian University -- The Panthers were the recipients of the first round bye this season after Nolan fell in Round 2 last year after having the bye. The team that knocked off Nolan last year? Parish. The Panthers knocked off TCCH to start the season and then were shocked by Fort Worth All Saints, who exited in Round 1. Parish has been incredibly dominant in their 8 game win steak since then, scoring at least 40 in every game and allowing fewer than 19 in every game. Just one of the 8 opponents past 14 points and the Panthers won by at least 23 every week. The Mustangs had an up-and-down season, currently sitting at 7-4. A dominant 2nd half saw the MCS push to round 2 with a 46-22 win over St. Pius. The Mustangs secured that home game with a season closing win over Fort Worth All Saints, the lone squad to beat Parish. Each of MCS 4 losses was closely contested with only Nolan scoring a double-digit win. MCS is rarely blown out and I doubt they will be here. The struggles offensively against the Mustangs best opponents makes it hard for me to pick them here. It won't be a rout, but the Panthers win. Parish to the semis, 32-24.

Quick Hits: (Season: 97-23)

Dallas Bishop Lynch over Houston St. Thomas
Plano Prestonwood Christian over San Antonio Antonian
Lubbock Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Arlington Pantego Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Boerne Geneva over League City Bay Area Christian
The Woodlands Christian over Austin Texas School for the Deaf
Muenster Sacred Heart High School over The Woodlands Legacy Prep
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Bryan Brazos Christian
Shiner St. Paul High School over Dallas Covenant School
Tomball Rosehill Christian over Fort Worth Lake Country Christian