Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Week 5/9 Picks 2020

The roller coaster goes on as we spin the wheel to see who plays who this week. Division I District 1 is particularly fluid from week to week, but it looks like everyone is in action this week. The Division II wheel is more form a competition standpoint. Seems like anyone could win those games each week. With everyone in the playoffs it promises to be a wild November and December. Good luck and safe travels for another week. 

This Week: (Season: 21-9)

Dallas Christian @ McKinney Christian -- The Chargers play their 1st road game of the season on October 23rd. I feel comfortable guaranteeing that is the latest 1st road trip in school history. DC pummeled Bishop Dunne last week, 73-0, and have scored at least 48 points in all three outings this season. Further, the Chargers have allowed less than 9 points per game to this point as well. The Mustangs dropped their district opener last week in a trip to Tyler, falling to Grace Community 73-54. Visions of an offensive past for Tyler Grace set up for a potentially interesting game with DC next week. However, this one comes first. The Mustangs are off to a 2-2 start and have scored 54 or more points in 3 of those 4 games. Somehow they've lost 2 of those three games. Given the success of the DC offense so far this year it appears to set up for plenty of points for the Chargers. I think the Mustangs will score a bit here and if they can keep away from the early deficit they should be more competitive than last year's 42-0 shutout loss. That said, this looks to be a game where the Chargers are the clear favorite. Mustangs score their first points in three meetings with DC, but fall. Chargers win 43-14.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Addison Trinity Christian -- The Trojans scored an upset win over FWC last week, 42-38. FWC was coming off two cancelled games and having lost to this Brook Hill squad to open the season. TCA trailed by 10 with just 6 minutes to play before securing the victory. The Guard are having one of their best seasons in Division II and with the chaotic results in District 1 so far appear to be an interesting candidate for a deep run. The Brook Hill 3-0 start hasn't really been paced by the offense or defense. They scored 34 and 37 in two wins but allowed 27 and 34. When the offense managed just 21, they held the opposition to 9. The Trojans are coming off a horrific losing streak, but have 2 wins already this season. This should be a competitive game. I think Brook Hill is the better team and TCA can't find two comebacks in two weeks. Guard win 35-28.

Fort Worth Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- Its been a rocky start for the Cardinals with a 3 point loss to Brook Hill to open the season followed by 2 cancelled games. Then they went ahead 38-28 with just 6 minutes to play last week in Addison before TCA scored 2 late TDs. The Cardinals also have yet to play a home game and actually will not host a varsity contest in North Richland Hills until November. In contrast the Eagles were off to a great start with big wins over Prince of Peace, Bishop Dunne, and then sound defeat of Grapevine Faith to let everyone know they'd be in the mix. At 3-0, I picked them to beat Frisco Legacy last week and after a very competitive first half that included a Southwest lead and a 19-19 tie they failed to notch a point in the 2nd half. Already at 1-1 this presents a chance for the Eagles to get to 1st or 2nd in the district. FWC still has all 4 district games to play and would be unable to pass Southwest in the standings with a loss here without a 3-way tie. The Cardinals offense has scored 34 and 38 in the 2 games so far, but they've faltered defensively. The Eagles allowed just 14 through 3 games before Legacy posted 46. If there are a bunch of points scored in this one I think Southwest is in trouble, but if they can limit the FWC like they did Faith they may win by a more than a handful. Eagles win at home 30-14.

Flower Mound Coram Deo @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- The Eagles appeared to be their usual middle rung team in District 1. They were beaten handily by Tyler Grace and blown out by San Antonio Cornerstone. A 3-point win over TCA just doesn't move the needle much given TCA's last two seasons. However, TCA's win over FWC and Legacy's 2nd half beatdown of Southwest puts the Eagles right back near the top of the heap. Much like Brook Hill in District 2 they appear to be a good candidate for a upset run like Plano John Paul II had last year. The Lions struggles in Division II have continued this year, but the gap appears to be narrowing. Consecutive losses to Brook Hill and Faith sting, but were by just 12 and 14 respectively. That was a 37 point improvement on last year's Brook Hill game and 14 points closer than the previous best against Faith. The Lion defense will have to be what keeps them in the game. The Lions could never get a 2nd half stop to put them in position for a go-ahead score and trailed the entire 2nd half. With Legacy's running attack getting the lead early would be huge for Coram Deo. Given the 2nd half gashing of Southwest, I just can't expect Legacy to slow down against the Lions. Eagles win 44-25.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The wheel of Division I District 1 match-ups lands on the revenge game for the Panthers. The Saints handed Parish their only loss of the 2019 championship campaign. The Panthers have run off 14 wins in a row since that game. The road trip to Midland Christian should have broken the streak, but Parish made the big plays at the big moments. Since then they consolidated that win by blowing out Prestonwood, scoring 55 in the process. The Saints opened with a dizzying 70-50 win over Azle before 2 cancellations. Last they suffered a 41-27 defeat to Nolan, never recovering from a 21-0 1st quarter. 91 points in 2 games is not really the defense you'd like to see to play the defending champions. The Saints will be a tough out for the Panthers, but I can't see them stopping the Parish attack enough. However, they are the last team to do so. The Saints keep it close, but I think the march to a repeat continues for Parish. Panthers win 42-28.

Austin Regents @ Brownsville St. Joseph -- The Knights get back into the upper section with an early start in the far southern reaches of Texas. Regular season records can always feel a bit hollow, but Regents has lost just twice in the main portion since 2016. A span of over 40 games. With TCCH out of the organization, the title has to be the main target for the Knights. This will be the first matchup with the Bloodhounds in the schools' histories. With just a 1-2 start to the season its not a promising campaign for the Hounds. However, they soundly beat a Geneva squad that doesn't figure to be a push over. Last week's domination by St. Michael's is not encouraging though since Regents beat them by 34. While its not going to be a laugher, I don't see how St. Joseph comes anywhere close to scoring enough. Knights win 42-14.

Houston Lutheran South @ Houston Second Baptist -- Our last contest ventures to Houston where the Pioneers have never quite matched the success of the 2014 team that lost a Monday playoff game to DC. They've not gone back to cellar, but also haven't found those big wins to get them to the top of the district standings. The Eagles are the longtime heavyweights in the Houston area Division II district having lost just 3 district games since the start of 2013. Though all 3 losses were to the Pioneers. However, those are the only 3 wins for Lutheran South in their last 13 meetings. A loss to Port Lavaca Calhoun can be forgiven, though 63 points is a lot to give up. After dominating The Woodlands Christian last week this should be a tougher challenge. The question for me is, how good is the Lutheran South defense? 12 points against Victoria St. Joseph - great! 56 points against John Cooper - problem! With the game at Second Baptist, I don't think the Pioneers have enough. Eagles win 42-28. 

Quick Hits: (Season: 27-12)

Fort Worth Nolan over Bishop Lynch
Midland Christian over Plano John Paul II
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Argyle Liberty Christian
Arlington Grace Prep over Waco Reicher
Austin Brentwood Christian over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Houston Village School over Beaumont Kelly
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Victoria St. Joseph
Dallas Covenant over Tyler T.K. Gorman
Lubbock Christian over Lubbock Trinity Christian
Dallas First Baptist over Dallas Shelton
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Schertz John Paul II

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