Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Week 9 Picks 2021

Just 3 weeks to play as we enter the home stretch, and we get our first big turn of events. Unfortunately it comes off the field, as Nolan is directed to forfeit 3 wins, including 2 district wins. They should still be in the playoffs, but the path to the 2nd bye behind Parish is much more interesting now (if that's even what you want looking at the bracket). Maybe we'll get a twist on the field this week too. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 42-18)

Dallas Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Chargers head into the Piney Woods for a game that has been for the district title some years. This year the teams seem headed in opposite directions, but after a week off its all still in front of the Cougars. Despite a 1-6 start, one home win this week would change everything. The Cougars seemed to right the ship with a win over Tenaha, but 3 straight losses and the an inability to get any stops at critical moments have doomed Grace this season. The Chargers blasted past McKinney Christian in the early stages last week en route to a 64-0 win. After last season saw several very lopsided scores like that for DC, this season has seen plenty of wins but not as many laughers. It can't be encouraging for Grace knowing they lost to the same McKinney Christian team. At home, maybe the Cougars can keep this one interesting for a little bit. Have to think DC is a big favorite here though. Chargers win 42-14.

Bullard Brook Hill @ McKinney Christian -- The Mustangs took a big beating at DC last week and will see the other district contender this week. The Guard figure to be the main candidate for 2nd place in District 2, but we'll get a shot at DC in Week 11. Brook Hill hasn't played since Oct. 1 with Bishop Dunne's cancellation. The Brook Hill defense has led the charge until being bludgeoned by Brownsboro in their last outing. The Mustangs got their first ever win over Tyler Grace and will not be an easy task for the Guard to dismiss. Brook Hill wins but its close, 30-21.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals struggled mightily in a very difficult non-district slate, winning none from six tries. Their 1-6 record though tells us they did win their only district game so far. The Eagles secured the early district win over Grapevine Faith which put the target on them for the rest of the district campaign. FWC's worst loss of the season was just 24 points to an ESD squad that may be headed for the SPC title. They played TCA to just a 13 point loss last week, a closer margin that some contenders (like Dallas Christian). They lost to DC by just 10. A win here and they might go from 0-5 to district favorite in just 3 weeks. Southwest lost to the same ESD and TCA squads in the non-district, but found 3 wins over SPC squads in the early stages of the season. At 5-2 and 2-0 in district the Eagles will clinch the top seed from District 1 with a win over the Cardinals this week. At FWC this is a tough test. The Eagle defense should give them a great chance to win, but I'm going Cardinals. FWC wins 19-18.

Midland Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Mustangs find themselves back in the running for a bye due to the Nolan forfeits. The bracket appears to be set up incorrectly, actually making that a bad thing. 5th and 6th places from District 1 could dodge all district mates while 1st place plays the 4th place finisher in round 2. 2nd round match-ups should be inter-district not intra-district if higher seeds win. Hopefully this is a typo that will be corrected. Enough about the future though, in the present MCS strong non-district puts them in a good spot to succeed in the playoffs. Holding Parish to just 28 suggests this will be tough on the Saints offense. The Saints held Nolan to 29 last week which suggests this will be tough on the Mustangs offense. They also allowed 31 to a Bishop Lynch, which mean the Mustangs might score a bunch. This is a lot of words to say I think this is a pretty even game. The Mustangs have better on the whole this year so I'll lean that way. I think defense wins the day above all here though. MCS wins 21-14.

Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions will not get the benefit of a Nolan forfeit since they do not play until Week 11. 2 wins between now and then and Prestonwood will likely be playing for a bye that week, and maybe a shot at sharing the district title. The offense has left the Lions of late, but the defense has been very good. Liberty and John Paul combined to score just 6 in their two match-ups. The Friars have struggled to just 2-5 and the defense has left them in recent weeks with the last 3 opponents combining for 143 points. The Lions should be able to get healthy offensively this week. The Friars have not shown the offensive power to eclipse Prestonwood in this one. Lions win 44-21.

Boerne Geneva @ Austin St. Michael's -- The Crusaders and Eagles are the best two in District 3 outside of defending State Champion Regents. St. Michael's has started 5-2 having scored in bunches in their last 3 district wins. 166 points in 3 weeks. They were handily defeated by Regents before the recent run of success. The Eagles are just 3-4, but scored 62 in Brownsville. Geneva also had Regents to just 38, their lowest output against a TAPPS opponent this season. The Eagles defense will have to keep this form to get past the Crusaders on the road. When you think a game is close, its hard to pick against the home team, particularly with a better record. Crusaders win 35-27.

Houston Second Baptist @ Houston Lutheran South -- The Pioneers ascended to be Second Baptist's chief rival, but have fallen back a little in recent seasons. However, a 6-1 season for LSA has them pointing toward the top spot or at least a 1st round home game. Its a 6 game win streak for the Pioneers after opening with a dud 15-9 loss to Houston Christian. The Eagles have posted 25 district wins in a row, last losing to LSA in 2015. It was a 49-42 game that night and that is probably how the Pioneers will have to get past the Eagles, outscore them in a shootout. Last week's lesser performance for Second Baptist against The Woodlands Christian, just an 11 point win, points toward a big chance here for Lutheran South. With still the biggest games in District 4 ahead, there is a bit of mystery around LSA coming in here. With the game at home, its a real opprutunity for the Pioneers. History says not to pick against Second Baptist in this district though. Eagles win 42-32.

Houston St. Johns @ Episcopal School of Dallas -- I don't include many SPC games since I tend to know less about the teams, but ESD has been mowing down the opposition this season. The Eagles have taken out several notable TAPPS foes en route to a 8-0 mark, one of the few with that many wins in the state already. TCA, FWC, and Southwest Christian already in the Eagles wake. These two are likely to meet again for the SPC 4A title in a couple of weeks. The Mavericks are off to one of their best starts at 7-0. Just a 1 point win over Fort Bend Christian probably puts them behind in this one and a long trip north is not going to do them any favors either. Both teams got dominant victories over the teams they should. Probably the best game among private schools on paper this week in the state. ESD wins a close one at home. Eagles victorious, 33-26.

Quick Hits: (Season: 61-19)

Flower Mound Coram Deo over Frisco Legacy Christian
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Victoria St. Joseph
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Plano John Paul II
Fort Worth Nolan over Argyle Liberty Christian
Houston St. Thomas over Houston St. Pius X
Austin Brentwood Christian over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Fort Worth Lake Country Christian
Lubbock Christian over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Beaumont Kelly over Houston The Village School
Dallas St. Marks over Bellaire Episcopal

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