Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Week 5 Picks 2022

District play starts for a few, but lots of good non-district clashes this week. Many meetings of teams in different divisions to try and triangulate those favorites for November. Might even get some playoff brackets next week to set up the road to state. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 22-9)

Fort Worth Nolan @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers controlled the game with Bishop Lynch last week, winding up with a comfortable 34-14 win. In Division I, the Vikings would be picked ahead of that Bishop Lynch squad so this should be a tough test for 4-0 DC. At the varsity level, these two long time TAPPS have not met since 2005, when a relatively weak DC team fell 19-10 at home. The Vikings have been a top contender in Division I every year since. Last season's campaign was an odd one that included forfeits and a coaching change. Even then, Nolan was in the state semifinals losing to Midland Christian 42-37. This season is a deceptive 1-3 start, as losses to College Station and Bellaire Episcopal are not surprises. Perhaps 45 allowed to St. Thomas was unexpected, but the Vikings will not be an easy out at all. If the Vikings defense needs to hold the DC offense under the 5 TDs or more they've posted in all 4 outings this season. That is the hinge point to me. 30 wins this one if either team gets there. Chargers in a tight one, 32-29.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Atlanta -- The Guard are looking to jump into the Division III mix and find a way to battle DC at the top. Alternating wins and losses has Brook Hill at 2-2 thus far, posting a 55-29 win over White Oak last week. This week sends the Guard to Georgia...wait wrong Atlanta... The Rabbits (excellent mascot) come into Week 5 at 3-1 after losing to UIL power Liberty-Eylau 16-14 last week. Atlanta has allowed just 26 points in 4 games this season. Finding the endzone will be tough for a Brook Hill squad that was held to 20 and 21 by Grapeveine Faith and Tyler Grace. Finding the defensive stride that has lead the Guard to home playoff games in Division II is needed here, because I can't see them reaching more than 20 against Atlanta. Rabbits will be too much, multiplying to win 28-10.

Fort Worth Christian @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Cardinals find themselves with a familiar opponent but at an unfamiliar part of the season. Realignment separates these two in district play for the first time since 2009. The Cardinals have opened 3-0 taking last season's momentum and hitting the ground running. Outings of 61, 34, and 49 thus far point to a strong Cardinals offense that has them in the big mixer at the top of Division II. The Lions started strong with two 40 point wins, but saw ESD and Liberty hold them to just 20 total points and two sound defeats. Last week's stinger at Argyle Liberty really moves them to the top of the division and deals Faith a big blow to their title aspirations. I think the Cardinals defense is a little behind those last two opponents and so a high scoring affair seems in order. Lions hold on at home 46-42.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian vs. Hallettsville @ Mary-Hardin Baylor -- The Eagles travel south for an unusual pairing. A 3-1 start for Southwest has seen the usual Tarrant County foes. The lone loss to Grace Prep in Week 2. The Eagles show some signs of struggle after reaching the semifinals in back-to-back years. The Brahmas appear to be a tall task this week, having started 4-0 and posting 9 wins or more in 9 of the last 10 seasons. The Season opening win over Shiner puts them on the map. Just 35 points allowed on the season points to a tough task for the Eagles. Hallettsville just too much in this spot. Brahmas win 32-12

Fort Bend Christian @ Cibolo Steele -- The Eagles have played a staunch district schedule. A trip to Division III favorite Dallas Christian ended in an extremely close loss. Then it was followed up with a 6 point loss to SPC contender Houston St. Johns. A win over TCA gets Fort Bend back on track last week, but just 17 points scored has be worrying heading into this weeks contest. The Knights are a regular visitor to the UIL 6A playoffs, having been in the state final in 2016. Last season Steele posted an 11-1 season, and a 4-0 start this year includes a win over Lake Travis. The long trip to Midland almost did them in last week, but the Knights overcame Midland Legacy in OT. The Eagles are a tough squad that will not be pushed over easily by the Knights, but depth has to catch up a bit in the later stages of this one. Steele wins 40-20.

Houston Second Baptist @ Houston Kinkaid -- The Eagles (another one??) finally reached the state final a year ago after being unable to get past the Regents juggernaut for a half a decade. This season has been slow going, starting just 1-3. A strong list of opponents suggest that Second Baptist will be very much in the mix when district play hits. DC's departure of Division II after winning in 2021 has left a hold that several programs are looking to fill. As last year's runner up, the Eagles want to be in that spot. Its been close games throughout, but just too many points allowed so far this season. The Falcons 2-2 start doesn't really include the usual suspects, making comparisons challenging this week. 21 points is the most allowed by the Kinkaid defense so far, so a close low scoring game is the way to go. Falcons win at home 19-17.

Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Warriors 2-9 season of 2021 seems a distant memory at this point. Liberty's opening domination of Prestonwood put them on the short list in Division II and they've only showed strong performances since then. Just a 3 point loss to ESD was followed a win over Lubbock Trinity and then a dominant showing over Grapevine Faith. The Friars late success in 2021 has not been carried over. Celina and Dallas Christian losses are understandable and losing to LD Bell looks better as the Blue Raiders have reached 4-0. I just don't see the Friars scoring enough to be close in this one. If Lynch can figure out its offensive inconsistencies of recent years they'll be right in the mix after Parish in Division I, but I can't expect it on the road this week. Warriors win 35-12.

China Spring @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The non-district opponents just keep coming at you if you're the Panthers. The undefeated season will once again elude Parish Episcopal as South Oak Cliff secured a late comeback to deal the Panthers a 1st loss on the season. Getting the offense going is what Parish needs to figure out after stalling for much of the 2nd half last week. The 44 scored on Austin LBJ is what will be needed to get a win on the road. This meeting 2021 state champions includes a Cougars squad that has started 4-0 including a 1-point win over Melissa. China Spring has 31 wins in the last 3 seasons even though this season is just four weeks old. The points will be plural in this one, but please note both school names are not. It is just China Spring, no Springs and no Parishes on the other side either. Close high scoring game, but I think Parish gets back in the win column, scoring another big win for TAPPS football. Panthers win 44-42.

Quick Hits: (Season: 26-14)

Dallas Covenant over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Houston Northland Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over San Antonio Cornerstone Christian
Midland Christian over Del Rio
Frisco Legacy Christian over Arlington Pantego Christian
Tyler Grace Community over Longview Spring Hill
Dallas St. Marks over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Houston St. John's over Houston Lutheran South
Irving Cistercian over Arlington Grace Prep
Shiner St. Paul over Boerne Geneva

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