Week 1 Picks 2023

We open the 9th year of the weekly survey of Texas private school football contests. What you see in this space are the thoughts of the committee of 1. Certainly others thoughts are included in the weekly evaluations, but its really just me writing this each week. Plenty of places to find more readings and we'd love to have your thoughts on TAPPS, SPC, and few others over on the LSCSN message board https://lscsn.freeforums.net/. Readers of this space will know we have a few biases. You can certainly guess where my ties are based on some context clues, and unique mascots are always welcome. Eagles are usually cheered against, or least poked fun at. We've got 15 weeks to the finals in Waco and we'll try and pick every one of them. Feel free to give feedback in the comments or @Cav_0 on Twitter. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week:

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers crushed Division III opposition a year ago, securing a 24-0 victory over Cypress Christian in the title game. The lone blemish on a 12-1 campaign was a loss at Fort Worth Christian. That rematch will wait until Week 6 in Mesquite. This rematch sees a Falcons squad that improved a ton last season, sharing a district title. Last year Dunne fell behind quickly in their home opener, trailing 21-0 at the end of the 1st quarter. The Falcons won the final 3 quarters but lost the game 34-21. A 7-4 season saw the Dunne eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs by just a single point against the before mentioned Fort Worth Christian. Getting the offense going against a DC defense that allowed just 13 points in the playoffs last season will be the challenge for Bishop Dunne. The Chargers are certainly favorites again, but a new season always brings new challenges. I'll say the heat leads to a slow start for everyone, but a tidy victory for the Chargers. DC wins 30-7.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- The Guard and Lions have met just 3 times, but those meetings are each of the last 3 years. Faith has taken all three meetings, with last year's matchup seeing a 40 point 2nd half for the Lions and a 40 point victory. That game was in Bullard and the Guard must traverse the road to Grapevine this year. Brook Hill has struggled to score in the meetings with Faith, averaging just 14 points across the 3 meetings. The Guard finished 6-6 last year but did win a road playoff game over Lake Country Christian. Just never able to secure the stops against the big time opponents, allowing 60+ 3 times. The Lions finished 6-5, sharing the district title. They fell at home in the playoff opener though to Fort Worth All Saints. Faith seems pretty certain to score 30+ in this one based on recent history. If the Brook Hill offense can get on track early they'll have a chance at a road upset and maybe point toward the district meetings with Covenant and DC. Lions win at home 35-14.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Aledo -- The four-time reigning champions in Division I will see one of the strongest non-district schedules ever played by a TAPPS member...well since they played it last year. The Panthers haven't lost to a TAPPS opponent since the final week of the 2020 regular season. Each championship season saw one defeat and the Panthers have yet to achieve an undefeated season in program history. UIL power Aledo opens the slate, after The Bearcats dropped a 24-17 decision at Parish last year. Aledo opened 0-2 before winning 14 in a row and claiming a 5A state title. This should be another classic, the Parish offense should lead the TAPPS charge again, but this is a tall task. On the road, I don't think the Panthers have enough. Aledo wins 30-27 (which I picked last year, so maybe not...)

Fort Worth Nolan @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The battle of Fort Worth returns for another season. This time matching a semi-finalist in Division I (Nolan) and a state runner-up in Division II (All Saints). The home standing Vikings won last year's opener 37-21, a pick a missed by just 2 points. After that it was a slog of a season for Nolan, losing 7 in a row. The playoffs hit and the Vikings found their stride winning 2 playoff rounds and finishing with a curious record of 4-9. The Saints ran off 3 playoff wins, including a road win in Round 1, before falling to Fort Bend Christian in the title game. This should be a close one and much like last year, I think you go home teams in close early season matchups. Saints secure the opener, 28-21.

Fort Worth Christian @ Dublin -- The Cardinals travel abroad to Dublin...wait I'm told not that Dublin. A season ago, the Cardinals dominated the Lions 61-23. That started a big non-district season and a 5-0 start. The district slate did not go as well, with just a 1-3 mark. The playoff rebound though was 2 wins by 2 total points before falling to All Saints in the semifinals. The Lions were coming off a 3rd playoff appearance but sputtered to just 2-8 and 0-5 in district play. Dublin should be a bit better this year, but still too big a hill to climb in this opener. The Thursday start might make things a little weird, but Cardinals win comfortably, 40-14.

Dallas Bishop Lynch @ Hurst L.D. Bell -- Scheduling the Blue Raiders gets you into the picks. It became clear it would be a long season on Ferguson Rd. when L.D. Bell bested the Friars by 44 in the opener. The Friars finished the year with just a single win, but doubled that total in the playoffs by taking out Central Catholic. With just 4 wins in the last 2 regular seasons, but 3 playoff wins, it seems the Friars are slow starters. The Blue Raiders 6 wins in 2022 was their most since 2013. They could not climb that Euless Trinity mountain again. This should be closer than 2022, but the Blue Raiders should win at home. The Lynch defense needs to improve to have a different season than a year ago. L.D. Bell wins 42-21.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Warriors seem to be the consensus pick to step forward in 2023. Of course a step forward from 10-2, 2nd round playoffs, district champion is just a about title favorite. Liberty went to Plano and never allowed the Lions an inch, with a dominant defensive performance. The Lions lost that one 28-7, but won their next 8 before falling to Parish Episcopal twice and finishing 9-3. A new season means new teams and new problems. Both offenses should be improved from a year ago, but after winning on the road in 2022 Liberty has to be the pick in 2023. Warriors win 42-28.

Quick Hits:

Lubbock Trinity Christian over Albany
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over El Paso Cathedral
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Fort Worth Trinity Valley
Tyler Grace Community over Winona
Houston Lutheran South over Houston Christian
Austin Regents over San Antonio Central Catholic
Arlington Grace Prep over Arlington Oakridge
Dallas St. Marks over Fort Worth Country Day
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Tomball Rosehill Christian
Bryan Brazos Christian over Dallas First Baptist
 

Historical Results:
2015: 94-16
2016: 79-25
2017: 78-32
2018: 88-22
2019: 89-21
2020: 64-23
2021: 85-29
2022: 81-31

Quick Hits:
2015: 60-15
2016: 103-26
2017: 101-29
2018: 102-28
2019: 103-27
2020: 77-23
2021: 105-25
2022: 96-34