Week 5 Picks 2023

District play starts for a few, but lots of good non-district clashes this week. Many meetings of teams in different divisions to try and triangulate those favorites for November. Might even get some playoff brackets next week to set up the road to state. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 21-7)

Dallas Christian @ Fort Worth Nolan -- The Chargers travel West to complete the Catholic swing of the schedule. This will be the first visit for DC to Doskocil Stadium since 2004, a 32-7 loss for the Chargers. Probably effecting this week's game more is the 28-19 DC win from 2022. This year, DC is off to a 3-1 start after holding off an improved Bishop Lynch squad last week. The Vikings have started terribly at 0-4 with an average margin of defeat over 30. A season ago Nolan won just 4 games, but 2 were playoff games in a semifinal run. The Vikings probably aren't as bad as the record indicates, but this seems to be a tall mountain for them. It is a home game at least for Nolan, but I don't see how they score enough to win. Chargers win 35-16.

Atlanta @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard are off to a 2-2 beginning to the campaign with a big loss to Grapevine Faith to open the season and a narrow defeat at Tyler Grace. The Rabbits are also 2-2 after reaching the playoffs a season ago. Atlanta won a home game over Brook Hill last year, 35-28. The Guard have to figure out how to get stops consistently against the top opposition. Allowing 40+ when Faith or DC come around has to end somewhere or the Guard will always be on the outside of the title race. With a home game this year, turning around 7 points seems very doable for Brook Hill. Heading to a district showdowns with DC and Covenant it better be. If the Rabbits get to 30 they win, but I'll say they don't. Guard win 33-20.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- This will be 15th meeting between the Cardinals and Lions in the last 14 seasons. In that time the tally is 9 to 5 in favor of FWC. The Lions started 2023 with 105 points in 2 weeks and were riding high at 2-0. Since then 93-3 in against has Faith at 2-2. Looking back at my notes, it appears it was much the same heading into this clash last year. The Cardinals hot streak lasted an additional week but crashed down against Lake Country last time out. Both teams seem to be looking up at Liberty and All Saints in Division II. Getting back to the defense that allowed just 13 points each of the first two weeks will be critical for the Cardinals. The defense that saw Lake Country post 45 last week will surely lead to a Lion triumph this week. Its a tough pick in this one, but I think we can probably cross the loser off the list of Division II title contenders. Always lean home teams in this space, so Cardinals get back on track after last weeks defeat. FWC wins a tight one 30-28.

Anna @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Saints 4-0 start will be put to the test as rising UIL power Anna comes to Tarrant County. The Coyotes are 2-1 after dropping a 4OT decision to Celina last week. Only China Spring, who we'll see in the picks later, took out Anna in 2022 after a 13-0 start. This sets up to be  a clash of offenses, each team scoring at least 34 points in every game this season. The Coyotes should be the best defense the Saints have seen thus far. If the Saints can continue their offensive ways against the Coyotes they're the pick. Certainly a big enough name to keep the Saints from looking ahead to the expected district title match with Argyle Liberty. I think both offenses go nuts in this one, but Anna's depth advantage proves too much in the end. Coyotes win, 56-44.

Houston Kinkaid @ Houston Second Baptist -- The Falcons appeared to be 4th best in SPC 4A going into the final 3 weeks of the season in 2022. Then they took out ESD and St. John's in tight upsets and turned the tables on Bellaire Episcopal in the title game. 2023 has Kinkaid off to a 3-1 start that includes outings of 62 and 54 already this season. The Eagles 8-5 season a year ago ended in the semifinals. Seemingly the Second Baptist-Fort Bend Christian rivalry is one where you don't want to win the district title. The district champion has lost the semifinal rematch in each of the last two years. The path to that semifinal included a 1-3 start and they've repeated that this year. The bad news for the Eagles is they lost to the Falcons in Week 5 last year, 44-31. All signs point to Kinkaid as the better squad, but something feels odd about the Eagles play so far. A tick up into district play seems likely, and maybe this is the start. Probably not enough, but should be closer than it is on paper. Falcons win 27-21.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Friars have showed considerable improvements in 2023, but it hasn't translated to wins at just 1-3. Last week an early lead at DC evaporated in a 41-28 loss. Going from scoring just 3 against Celina to scoring 41 certainly shows progress for Lynch. The Warriors were 2-9 just 2 seasons ago, but are now near the top of the heap at 3-0. Liberty has allowed just 3 points in the last two outings, and a shutout of ESD puts everyone on notice. FWC and Midland loom as the district title showdowns in a couple of weeks, and they should get there. With the game at Roffino Stadium, the Friars should stay connected but I don't think they're quite to the level of the Liberty offense. At 135-22 total score on the season and given that ESD projects as better than Bishop Lynch, the line has to go toward the Warriors. Liberty wins on the road, 42-12.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ China Spring -- The Panthers went into the 2022 meeting with China Spring at 3-1 having just lost a classic game with South Oak Cliff. The undefeated season was gone, but it was clear Parish was a massive favorite in Division I at that point. This year its much more rocky on Midway Rd. A 1-3 start is nothing to sneeze at with the schedule they've played, but it also seems the gap to the rest of TAPPS may not be as wide. The Cougars took a 24-16 loss on the blue field in 2022. It would be the only loss China Spring suffered on the way to a 2nd straight UIL state title. This season the Cougars already dropped a game to Melissa but showed similar results as last year in the non-district. China Spring should be the better squad and with the game at Cougar Stadium it should be there day. Parish will likely get on track this season, but will have to wait for a week off and TAPPS opposition to get back in the win column. Cougars win 35-21.

Fort Worth Lake Country Christian vs. Episcopal School of Dallas @ The Star -- Loser of this one has to stop being the Eagles...ok I guess not. Lake Country's upset of FWC last week earns them a slot in the picks for Week 5. A notable opponent in SPC contender ESD doesn't hurt either. ESD shut out Grapevine Faith in their last time out. This was after the were shut out themselves by Liberty in Week 2. A week ago, I would have picked a big margin for ESD seeing no real path for Lake Country to win this one. However, LCCS 45 points against FWC indicates they are something to be dealt with offensively. Probably not enough firepower for Lake Country to take down ESD, but I thought that last week too. If LCCS can score a 2nd straight surprise they become a possibly contender in Division III. I assume Lubbock Trinity will eye this game closely. ESD gets the win, but we're watching closely, 36-16.

Quick Hits: (Season: 27-13)

Dallas Covenant over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Arlington Grace Prep over Irving Cistercian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over San Antonio Cornerstone Christian
Midland Christian over Del Rio
Frisco Legacy Christian over Katy St. John XXIII
Tyler Grace Community over Longview Spring Hill
Houston St. Pius X over Dallas Bishop Dunne
Houston St. John's over Houston Lutheran South
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Houston Northland Christian
Shiner St. Paul over Boerne Geneva