Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Week 4 Picks 2018

The goal for this week is no weather delays. So all rain and storms are requested to hold until at least 11 PM local time on Friday night. Thank you for your consideration.

This Week: (Season: 21-3)

Trinity Christian - Addison @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers and Trojans rematch the 1987 state championship game, a 19-14 DC win. This will certainly have no effect on the outcome of this one but fun to know. The Chargers have scored in spurts so far this year and that's led to some handy victories but its also been followed by some lulls in play. DC still looking for that complete game of play to go with the 21 or 28 point quarter. The Trojans have started a sluggish 1-2 through 3 week, beating ESD but falling to China Spring and Prestonwood. Now that is certainly not a group of opponents that would be considered weak but you'd like to score more than 10 when you hold China Spring to 13. The Trojans offense will have to manage more than 10 to go by the Chargers here, and think probably needs at least the 28 they allowed to ESD. The Chargers should be in a similar spot. If they can get the 33 they've reached in each game so far they should have enough to win, but leaving it to the defense that has been mostly untested to this point would seem unwise. Chargers win at home 34-24.

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ Melissa -- The Tigers posted another strong victory a week ago, besting All Saints 44-20 and extending their win streak to 12. The Cardinals also enter at 3-0 including a victory of Liberty Christian in Week 1. Melissa should offer a decent resistance to the Tigers. Its a surprisingly long trip between the two schools with at least an hour drive awaiting the Tigers and likely more on a Friday evening. Its no West Texas travel but a decent haul none the less. The Cardinals have scored 42, 63, and 27 in their 3 outings. To keep pace with TCCH they are going to need something more than the 27. The Tigers appear to be too much on offense, but this one shouldn't be a laugher. TCCH wins on the road 35-25.

Tyler Grace @ Wills Point -- The Cougars explosive offense of the first two weeks vanished quickly on the blue turf at Parish as they were routed on a stormy night in Dallas. Returning the 50+ point form of the opener is going to be needed on the road here. The Tigers are off to a 1-1 start after losing the 1st round of the playoffs last season. The 42 points scored by Mineola in Week 1 against Wills Point bodes well for Grace, but the mere 7 scored by Mabank does not. Which team is Grace closer too? The team that scored 75 against Redwater or the one that scored 7 against Parish? I think the Grace offense returns to form. Cougars win 40-23.

Tyler T.K. Gorman @ Redwater -- The Crusaders travel to Redwater giving us a common opponent with Grace for comparing down the road. The Dragons option attack put up plenty of yards and points in a Week 2 defeat at Grace posting 54 but still losing by 3 touchdowns. TKG has not been known for its defense in recent years and leaves the proximity of Loop 323 for the first time this season. The Crusaders lost by a point to Tenaha last week following a 12 point win over Fort Worth Christian. Look for their to be lots of points posted in this one. The Crusaders and Dragons both are strong on offense and suspect defensively. I'll take the Crusaders to squeak by 48-42.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Lions and Warriors find themselves in a non-district matchup for the first time. The Warriors dominated Brock defensively in a rain shortened win. Shortened or not holding Brock scoreless for 2.5 quarters is a good defensive outing. Liberty was in a similar mode entering the clash with Prestonwood last year. The defense looks great, the offense was a bit suspect last year and this year is more of an unknown with just 2 games under their belts. The Lions offense has been a force for a decade or more in Division I including 42 or more points in 4 playoff games last year on the way to a state championship. The Warriors held them to just 14 last season but scored 0 of their own. If Liberty can reach 30 they should have a chance to win, but they probably need all of those points to win. I just can't see the Warriors scoring enough to win this one. Lions win 34-14.

Midland Christian @ Monahans -- The Mustangs reached 3-0 by hanging on for a 1 point win against Wall last week and now renew an old acquaintance in the Loboes. Monahans won 9 games and reached round 2 last season and have opened 2-1 this year including a 21 point win at Big Spring last week. The Wall victory suggests this should be a promising season for the Mustangs, but there are plenty of unknowns to this point. Nolan looks better than expected, All Saints looks a little worse than expected, Liberty's defense looks excellent, it will be quite the district schedule ahead. This game is also a mystery. I'll take MCS to stay undefeated, but it should be close. Mustangs win 35-28.

Falls City @ Boerne Geneva -- The Eagles get to the wildcard in this week's picks becuase the opponent is the Beavers. The Beavers reached round 4 last year and have opened this season 3-0. The Geneva Eagles reached round 3 before being ousted by Cypress Christian. Its been a less than stellar start at 1-2 for the Eagles but losses to 2nd Baptist and Cornerstone are no shame by any means. Its going to take the Eagles best game to best the Beavers and avoid 1-3, and even then it may not be enough to win this week. Beavers just too much for Geneva in my opinion. Falls City wins 42-21.

Quick Hits: (Season: 20-9)

Brook Hill over Willow Park Trinity Christian
McKinney Christian over Colleyville Covenant
Grapevine Faith Christian over Dallas Lincoln
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Maypearl
Fort Worth Nolan over Fort Worth Eastern Hills
Bishop Lynch over Fort Worth O.D. Wyatt
Austin Regents over San Antonio Central Catholic
Austin Brentwood Christian over San Antonio TMI
Houston Cypress Christian over Shiner St. Paul

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