Week 5 Picks 2018

Maybe this week it won't rain? Maybe? Nah probably not. Everyone stay safe and stay dry as we inch closer to district play.

This Week: (Season: 28-3)

Dallas Christian @ Kemp -- The Chargers held a 10 point lead when the storms reached Mesquite and finalized a 20-10 victory over TCA. Its been a nice 4-0 start for DC but not without concerns. Lulls in the offense will need to sorted out as district play looms on the horizon. The Yellowjackets enter off their second close win in as many weeks, reaching 2-1 with a 35-27 victory over Commerce. The Kemp defense has been consistently mediocre to this point in the season allowing 35, 28, and 27 in three outings. A stronger performance will likely be needed to best the Chargers. A year ago the Yellowjackets made it all the way to the state semifinals before falling to Brock. Particularly on the road, this is a challenging test for the Chargers. The tools are there to get a victory. Minimize turnovers and play sound defense for the 5th week in a row. Chargers win 35-28.

Center @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars responded from being blown out by Parish with a strong 42-14 win at Wills Point. The Roughriders reached the playoffs last year despite winning just 3 games, and have opened this season just 1-3. Center has seen 30 or more points posted against them in each of their four games thus far. The Cougars offense should be excited for the opprutunity having scored 42, 63, and 75 in Grace's three wins. The Cougars defense will be looking to improve seeing Redwater score just 8 against TKG after scoring 54 against the Cougars. The Grace defense will need to be on its 'A' game to make noise in district play, but likely doesn't need its best to win this week. Cougars win 48-20.

Houston St. Thomas @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Tigers have opened with 4 wins against varied opposition. Bishop Lynch and FW All Saints among the private schools and a nice looking win over Melissa on the public school side last week. The Tigers bested the Eagles by a single point a year ago and have opened this season just 1-3 despite averaging over 45 points per game. 58 and 63 were not enough to get St. Thomas a win over Needville and Kinkaid respectively. The Eagles are going to have a difficult time containing the Tigers offense based on their results to this point. Trinity has done nothing since winning last year's title to move them off of favored status. Tigers put up a bunch and win 58-28.

Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Mustangs have enjoyed one of their better starts to a season despite coming in as more of an unknown than recent seasons. In contrast to St. Thomas, MCS has reached 4-0 despite averaging just 26 points per game and only reaching a season high of 35. You have to wonder a little if the road miles might start to wear on the Mustangs who do not get their bye week until Week 10, but the reality of West Texas is that they are pretty much used to this. The Cardinals are a familiar foe for MCS with FWC taking each of the last 2 meetings in district play including a 42-7 drubbing in the Tall City last year. FWC appears to have a good team, but a loss at TKG makes me think they may be behind the Mustangs this year. This is a tricky choice and I hesitate to pick road teams in games I think will be close, but I think the MCS defense is good enough to win here. Mustangs win 30-27.

Grapevine Faith Christian vs. Canadian @ Vernon -- The Lions find themselves with an interesting non-district neutral site Saturday game. The Wildcats are a strong UIL 3A side with multiple state titles in the last decade. Canadian is off to a 4-0 allowing just 35 points total across the four games. Canadian's last regular season loss came in Week 3 of 2016, so this will be a challenge for the Lions. The Lions have also started the season 4-0 and have allowed just 34 points in four games. The offense has been a bit slower but ran off 51 last week against Lincoln. This is a long ride from Grapevine to the barren lands of West Texas, and I think its too much for them. Canadian wins 28-21.

Houston St. Pius X @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Panthers and Lions rematch last season's Division I title game, won by Prestonwood 42-41. Both squads have started strong this season, running to 4-0 starts. The Panthers have posted 42 or more in every game so far, but perhaps showed some weakness allowing 34 to Manor last week. The Lions have allowed just 6, 7, 10, and 20 in four outings thus far, and the a chunk of the 20 was last week after the game was clearly decided. The game would appear to hinge on the Lions defense against the Panthers offense. Prestonwood should score, but will there defense prove to be as strong as it appears through 4 weeks? I like the Lions at home and to limit St. Pius to fewer than the 41 posted in last year's final. Prestonwood wins 40-28.

Wimberly @ Austin Regents -- The Knights run of regular season dominance came to an end at the hand of the Central Catholic Buttons last week. This week the Texans of Wimberly visit the rustic campus on Foster Ranch Road. The Texans have struggled in the early going, dropping their last 3 contests allowing at least 33 points in each of them. The Knights must score to be able to not only win this one but make a strong run in the Division II playoffs. The team that dominated Cypress Christian and bested FW All Saints on the road should have the tools to win this one. A road trip would make this one more concerning for the Knights, but among the trees of Southwest Austin this is a game Regents should win. However, we see every week that you never know what happens on Friday night (this year, probably a thunderstorm). Knights win 42-19.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Saints have had a difficult opening to the season. Dropping back to back games to Regents and TCCH. Now those are not bad losses by any stretch, but when district mates Midland and Liberty are posting victories over notable public schools Brock and Wall it makes you wonder where the Saints fit in the picture. The Falcons routed San Antonio Cornerstone 48-0 last week after dropping two close one with Shreveport Byrd and Desoto. Just a the 19-7 Desoto loss would seem to place Dunne ahead of All Saints on paper. A matchup with St. Pius will provide a nice measuring stick with Prestonwood, but the Falcons best not look ahead. The Saints need to find more than the 20 points they've scored the last 2 games on offense. If they do they will give the Falcons a stiff test. If they do not Dunne will slide away I believe. Falcons win 38-21.

Quick Hits: (Season: 27-10)

Lubbock Trinity Christian over Carrollton Prince of Peace
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Albany over Bullard Brook Hill
Fort Worth Country Day over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Trinity Christian - Addison
Argyle Liberty Christian over China Spring
San Antonio Holy Cross over Austin St. Michael's
Houston Christian over Houston Westbury Christian
Waco Reicher over Arlington Grace Prep
Shiner St. Paul over Weimar