Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Week 7 Picks 2019

District play is here for most, with a few non-district tilts mixed in. Definitely our biggest week thus far as the contenders begin to face each other.

This Week: (Season: 37-9)

Dallas Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Chargers enter the district slate with a 5-0 record and coming off a bye week. The Guard will enter this one at 4-1 coming off back to back shutouts by a combined margin of 99 points. The challenge for Brook Hill will be posting a lofty score against the DC defense that has allowed no more than 14 points in any game thus far. In common opponents both teams played Plano John Paul II, Brook Hill dropping a 42-10 decision and DC winning at home 25-14. This is not the biggest test on the Chargers remaining schedule, but it could certainly be a stumbling block. This upset could very quickly vault Brook Hill into the ranks of looking for a home playoff game and the game is in Bullard. The Chargers should take this road victory, but nothing comes easy in district road games. DC wins 35-21.

San Antonio Cornerstone Christian @ Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill -- The Warriors have run quite the gauntlet to reach 6-0, scoring wins over Dunne, Lynch, and MCS in consecutive weeks. The Tigers may be the toughest opposition among them, given their win over Lynch as well. This game probably deserves top billing this week, but I have a reputation to uphold with that spot. The Warriors also posted a blowout win over Fort Worth Christian earlier in the season. TCCH is of course the 2-time defending state champion only losing to Parish in OT during the last two seasons. The challenge in this game is the stark contrast of the two teams games against Bishop Lynch. The Tigers took a defensive 16-13 victory. The Warriors outran the Friars 50-35, and they both did it at Bishop Lynch. The Tigers haven't felt quite as dominant this season, but still appear to be the class of Division II. I'm not sure how to pick this one, so when in doubt pick the home team. This should be a close one, Tigers win 28-20.

McKinney Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- As a new entrant to Division II, 2018 was a tough season for the Mustangs finishing just 2-7. This season started much improved at 4-0, including turning around 34 point loss to Valley View to a 32 point win. MCA posted over 40 points in each of their first three victories, before a hot 30-21 afternoon win over Colleyville Covenant. However, in the Mustangs last outing they were routed by Plano John Paul II 50-6. The Cougars make for an interesting district opener given the number of points allowed this season, including 63 to Center and 38 to Redwater. Last week the Cougars traveled to Houston to take a 1 point victory in a bog over Pro-Vision Academy. Both teams very much need this win to set up possible matches with DC for a home playoff game, without this win and given TK Gorman's withdrawal from District 2 there is no real path to the top 2. If the Mustangs offense can get in gear they should have a chance to reverse last year's 54-18 drubbing. McKinney Christian is clearly better this season and should continue to progress toward competing in Division II, but I don't think they're quite up to that level yet. Cougars win 42-21.

Trinity Christian - Addison @ Midland Christian -- The Mustangs are smarting a bit about being just 3-3 at this point, losing games by 7, 6, and 3. The next two weeks are presumably precursors to the expected showdowns with Nolan and All Saints that we anticipate will decide District 1. Longtime rival Liberty is certainly no pushover looming next week either. The Mustangs should be heavily favored in this one at home in Permian Basin. The have to be so favored given the Trojans have won just 3 games since the start of 2017, and enter this one at 0-6. TCA won its opener with Coach Singletary to start the 2018 season and have lost 16 straight since then. The Trojans slate in District 1 is not the group you want to try and find your footing against. TCA has held just 1 opponent out of 6 under 40 points, and though the offense did find some form with 30 points last week I can't see them having anywhere close to enough to travel west and steal a victory. Mustangs win 45-16.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Fort Worth Nolan -- It was an unpleasant 0-4 start for the Warriors before rebounding to beat China Spring in a 58-56 shootout and then blow out Hyde Park 52-0 last week. The Liberty squad is probably better than 2-4 would suggest, but the Vikings will pose a significant challenge. Defense has been a significant problem for the Warriors, allowing over 40 points in 4 of 6 outings. Nolan has opened at 6-0 scoring over 35 points in 5 of the 6 contests. Only Celina was able to slow the Vikings over an entire game, though they still fell on the losing side to Nolan. Last week's 37-6 defeat of Bishop Lynch only cemented the Vikings status as a contender in Division I. Only 2 opponents have reached 20 against the Vikings, and one of those was still a 48 point win. Last season the Vikings traveled to Argyle and posted a 49-21 win. The Warriors quality play against Prestonwood suggests they should be very competitive this year, but I doubt they have enough to get over the hump this year. Vikings win at home 33-17.

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Panthers had been in a down cycle before posting 10 wins a season ago. They followed that up by opening this season with an OT win over TCCH. 2 weeks later the Panthers dropped a surprising decision to All Saints. The Falcons Red Swarm defense took them to the state title last year, allowing 20 points only once in 14 games. The Panthers were the only ones to reach 20, in a 31-20 semifinal loss. Earlier the Falcons posted a 16-7 home victory over the Panthers. This season has been a little choppier for Dunne having been blown out by Desoto and dropping a road contest to SA Cornerstone. However, the Red Swarm responded holding All Saints to 2 and St. Pius to 8. I doubt the Falcons will score a ton against a really good Panthers team, so I can't see this one not being close. If Parish can score 25+ on the Red Swarm (more than 40 and we'll take that name away from them), they should win particularly at home. I'm going to say the defense wins this for the Falcons. Dunne wins 25-18.

Lubbock Christian @ Flower Mound Coram Deo -- The Eagles earn this spot in the picks thanks to a 6-0 start so good that MaxPreps is giving them credit for the Tulia win twice. That win last week was the first close test for Lubbock Christian after posting at least 45 points in each of their first 5 wins. The Lions have put together a few strong seasons ending last season with 11 wins and a state semifinal appearance. This season has been more of a struggle following an 0-3 start. The Lions have rebounded with 2 wins in the last 3 weeks, but have allowed a bunch of points this season in some close losses. I suspect that Coram Deo will post some points, but will be able to slow the Eagles enough to win. Lubbock Christian wins a road test, 42-28.

Quick Hits: (Season: 47-13)

Grapevine Faith Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Plano John Paul II
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Central Catholic
San Antonio Holy Cross over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Houston Lutheran South over Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian
The Woodlands Christian over Houston Lutheran North
Austin Brentwood Christian over Shiner St. Paul
Dallas Covenant over Temple Central Texas Christian
Episcopal School of Dallas over Austin Saints

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