Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Week 8 Picks 2019

District races are heating up, particularly in Division I. We seem to have escaped the heat at last and we haven't needed the boats to account for the flood of last season. Good luck all and safe travels.

This Week: (Season: 43-10)

San Antonio Cornerstone Christian @ Dallas Christian -- T.K. Gorman's departure from District 2 opened up the schedules for both TCCH and DC, and the Warriors have moved in. Cornerstone slid into several open slots in the schedule across the major DFW districts. The Warriors have already bested both Bishop Dunne and Bishop Lynch this season, including scoring 50 in their visit to Roffino Stadium. The Chargers have started with their usual strong opening, notching their first district win last week over Brook Hill to reach 6-0. It was a slower offensive performance for the Chargers, posting just 21 points. DC will likely need a much stronger performance from the offensive side of the ball this week. The DC defense has led the charge again, allowing more than 7 points only twice in 6 games and just 43 points total. The Warriors will be the best of the opposition thus far, and it will just ramp up further next week in the road trip to Cedar Hill. This is definitely a tough game for the Chargers, but they do get it at home as the Warriors make their 1st ever visit to the narrow sidelines of Wheeler Field. Long time readers will now who is getting picked here. Chargers win 20-18.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Cougars scored a district opening win over McKinney Chrsitian, 33-12. While not a laugher by any stretch, Grace was never in great jeopardy of losing. With TKG's departure, the Cougars get a 4 game district slate that includes 3 home games. Grace's only road trip will be to DC in Week 11. If the Cougars can win here it figures to set up that final game to be a battle for 2nd place and home field in round 1 of the playoffs. Both teams enter with two losses on the season, with the Guard opening district last week in a 21-3 home loss against DC. The Guard can quickly reenter the fray with a road win to match last season's 31-28 upset of the Cougars. The offense for the Guard will need to regain its non-district form as it seems very unlikely they can win with the 3 they managed against DC. The Cougars offense has put up total of 46, 70, 42, and 49 this season while the defense has struggled against the better opposition. Center's posting of 63 points is particularly concerning since Grace scored 49 of their own. The Guard are going to be close, but I think are headed toward a winner take all with McKinney Christian for the final playoff spot in District 2. Cougars win at home 35-27.

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill @ McKinney Christian -- The Mustangs are much improved from a season ago, but have dropped their last 2 outings after a 4-0 start. Last week's district opener was much more competitive for McKinney Christian despite having to travel to Tyler. Its a little odd, but the Mustangs might look past TCCH to next week's matchup with Brook Hill given the likely long odds they face in this one. The Tigers are the back-to-back champions of Division II and had one of the state's longest win streaks before falling to Parish Episcopal in OT earlier this season. TCCH racked up 49, 48, and 50 points in consecutive outings before rain limited them to just 24 against Cornerstone last week when the game was stopped at halftime. The Tigers would need a incredible series of bad luck to be challenged in this one. TCCH wins 51-6.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Friars have been stung by two straight losses after posting 3 consecutive wins to level their record at 3-3. It was a tough opening for Lynch starting with TCCH, but they would have liked to perform better against Cornerstone and potential playoff opponent FW Nolan. The Friars have struggled to put together good games on both sides of the ball simultaneously. They held TCCH to just 16, but scored only 13 of their own. They posted 35 against Cornerstone, but allowed 50. Even in wins over Ennis and Frisco Centennial the defense struggled allowing 34 and 38 respectively. The Panthers scored the huge season opening win over TCCH on ESPN2 but then fell to FW All Saints just two weeks later. Blowout wins over Division II opponents are good, but they really cemented themselves in the upper tier of Division I by besting Bishop Dunne last week 37-14. The most points Dunne has allowed to a TAPPS opponent since St. Pius eliminated them in the 2017 playoffs. I think the Parish offense is the key to this one, if the Panthers can score 35 or more I can't see the Friars being able to outscore them. I think they will do that, Panthers win 42-28.

Plano John Paul II @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- This the best Cardinals team in school history. Unfortunately for them that is more a statement about the past of the Cardinals program than the current team. John Paul II has made massive strides under Coach Teague especially consider the depths of 34 losses in a row. JP2 was beaten just 22-10 last week against Prestonwood and the offense has posted several impressive outings earlier in the season. The Falcons will be looking to recover from the district opening loss against Parish, but simply must improve on offense to be a real contender this season in Division I. Their defense can take them a long way (all the way to a title in 2018), but it does not appear they are quite as dominant as last year's team. The Cardinals will be limited by the Falcons defense for sure, given the 14 points scored against DC and the 10 managed against Prestonwood. If Dunne can reach 20 it should have a handy victory, but if the offense goes missing again it could be an upset. Dunne takes it at home, 28-18.

Carrollton Prince of Peace @ Grapevine Faith Christian -- One of the many Division II District 1 teams named Eagles travels to Grapevine to take on the Lions. The run heavy attack the Eagles feature has gained them a 4 game win streak, but they've yet to take on a Division II opponent this season. The depth issue has always been a major concern for POP, and I fear this year will be no different. This is a huge opprutunity to announce themselves as a contender for one of the home playoff games and avoid the trip to Cedar Hill. The Lions have been a strong contender for a number of seasons and are the last school not named Trinity Christian to win the Division II title. Only UIL stalwart Canadian has been able to fell the Tigers in 2019 and it might be easy for Faith to look ahead to the expected showdown with Fort Worth Christian for the district title. I think Prince of Peace has made progress this year, but not enough to really threaten the Lions. Faith wins 49-20.

Midland Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The longtime foes head to Argyle to renew the rivalry. The two have played at seemingly every stadium in Denton and Midland Counties. What is now the UNT soccer field hosted maybe the most famous meeting (Link, though we should note MCS won the rematch that year). The most famous message board game, known as "Showergate," was at Bronco Stadium in Denton. The Mustangs have posted home wins over LCS on campus at Awtry Field, at Grande Communications Stadium, and at least one more stadium in the Permian Basin. The Mustangs entered this matchup a year ago at 7-0, but this season has been a different challenge with MCS at just 4-3. However, the three losses have been by 16 total points. This week and next with Nolan will decide the Mustangs location in the playoff bracket and rather they will start at home or with a bus ride. TCA will likely be 5th in District 1, but the other 4 spots seem up for grabs right now, the winner here will have a big leg up. The Warriors have notched just 2 wins in 7 outings, and have really struggled on defense. Liberty has allowed 40 points in 5 games thus far. A big contribution to a 2-5 start. Nolan held the Liberty offense in check after the Warriors blasted Hyde Park with 51. If the Warriors can not get to 30 they will have a hard time outscoring MCS. if the Mustangs can turn the close games in their favor going down the stretch they will be a big challenge for anyone in November. Its a long trip, but if anyone knows how to travel it's the Mustangs. MCS wins 35-21.

Quick Hits: (Season: 54-16)

Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Austin Regents over Austin Hyde Park
Austin Brentwood Christian over Austin St. Michael's
San Antonio Holy Cross over San Antonio Christian
Houston Lutheran South over Victoria St. Joseph
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Houston Cypress Christian
Fort Worth All Saints over Trinity Christian - Addison
Houston St. Pius X over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Flower Mound Coram Deo over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Dallas Shelton over Arlington Grace Prep

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