Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Regional/Semifinal Playoff Picks 2020

Week 3 of the playoffs are here. Lots of expected teams still in, and a few unexpected. The latest regional round in TAPPS history will be followed by the latest championship games in TAPPS history. We have just 18 games left in private school 11-man football this year. Enjoy the ride. Good luck and safe travels.

This Week: (Season: 52-20)

Grapevine Faith Christian School vs. Dallas Christian School @ Royse City -- The Chargers continued their domination this season with a 59-14 rout of Frisco Legacy and their 2nd win over Legacy in as many games. DC is 7-0 on the season with all wins coming by at least 36 points. The offense has struck early and often each week, including 6 first halves of 40+ points. The Lions got off to a rocky start at 1-2, including a 33-7 defeat against Southwest Christian that led to Faith finishing the district season in 2nd place. They've rebounded well though winning their last 4 to post a 5-2 mark entering the Regional round. Legacy provides the only common opponent and Faith did defeat them 49-35. The 49 is a good performance to work from if you're Faith, but allowing 35 when Legacy scored just 30 in 2 games combined against DC does not bode well. The virus cancelled the other common opponents we would have had in FWC and Brook Hill. Faith has struggled a bit offensively this year and scored just 14 in their playoff win over Brook Hill. Last season Faith won the Regional playoff game 28-17 before losing to TCCH in the semifinal. Despite not being too far apart, Faith and DC have played just 4 times in the last 20 years, all in the playoffs with the schools splitting the 4 games. The margins in those games have been 3, 29, 6 (in 2OT), and 11. DC has been better this season, but in the Regional round it should be a close game. The Chargers offense should be too much this year, and there isn't much mystery in who this space picks. DC wins 35-21.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian School vs. Fort Worth Christian School @ Fort Worth Castleberry -- The Cardinals started this season in tough shape with and 0-3 record and 2 cancellations. Then they trailed Coram Deo at the half. Since then its been 4 wins in 5 game for FWC. The only loss was to Faith in OT. The 4 wins also saw the Cardinals get the offense going, scoring 48, 49, 62, and then 30 in their road playoff win. FWC may have been unlucky as the only District 1 or 2 school to have to play in round 1, but having that extra game may have helped them keep things rolling. The Eagles defeated FWC back on October 23, 14-8. That was a home game for Southwest, and beating a team twice is difficult according to the cliche. 7-1 is one of the best marks for the Eagles since their last district title in 2004. It took them a bit to shake McKinney Christian at home, but it was a dreary day last Saturday. It will take more points than it did in October to win this one. The Eagles rushing attack needs to stay away from turnovers, and needs the lead. They got it in the regular season meeting. I feel like a reversal is the expected outcome and I think FWC is playing better right now. FWC got the 1st half lead against Grace and won despite only 3 2nd half points. I think this one is close to the end, but FWC reverse the scoreboard. Cardinals win 30-28.

Regents School of Austin vs. Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian Academy @ Sealy -- The Knights continue to dominate the southern half of the Division II playoffs, scoring a 45 point victory last week to open their postseason. Regents is 7-0 on the season winning every game by at least 28 and scoring at least 42 in every outing. They've played just once since Halloween, but that did not seem to derail them in their playoff opener. The Eagles will be the first team outside of District 3 that the Knights have seen. Its been a resurgent season for the Eagles at 7-2, their best mark since an 8-4 campaign in 2016. They absolutely crushed Corpus Christi John Paul in their playoff opener last week, 55-7. Interestingly, Regents beat them by the same score. Its probably too reliant on past history involving players that have graduated, but I have to take the Knights to continue their reign. Regents wins 42-21.

Austin St. Michael's Catholic Academy vs. Houston Second Baptist School @ Columbus -- The Eagles have the been the next team in line behind Regents for the entire 4 year run of the Knights reaching the title game. Second Baptist has not lost a district game since 2016, winning the last 5 district titles. The Crusaders enter this one at 6-1 with their most wins in a season since 2013. They dropped only the season opener at Regents. Second Baptist shutout Victoria St. Joseph in the Area round, 42-0. Of course in 2020, St. Michael's did not play St. Joseph due to the virus. So no common opponents between these two. The Eagles have to be careful looking ahead to a semifinal with Regents as the Crusaders pose plenty of a challenge. I really don't know which way to expect this one. Look for the Eagles to score as usual, but I think the Crusaders may have something to keep up. Hard to go against the favorites to set up a match of district champions. Eagles win 42-35.

Fort Worth Nolan vs. Fort Worth All Saints @ Globe Life Park -- The Division I bracket has reached the semifinals with all District 1 teams. The district champion Vikings certainly planned on getting this far, and maybe farther. The Saints actually finished as the 7th seed in district play and were just 1-3 in the regular season. They've now won 2 playoff games though the 2nd one was a meeting of surprise teams against Liberty. After beating the eventual champion Parish Episcopal last year, the Saints had high hopes. Injuries then derailed that campaign. This year a season opening win over Azle and the expectations of a healthy squad were quickly undone by COVID cancellations and then a loss to Nolan 41-27. The offense has been going lately with 91 points scored in the 2 playoff wins. The Vikings controlled the district schedule from start to finish. With just two games decided by 14 points and the other 4 wins by at least 17. After early leads led to victories against Midland and All Saints, they used big 2nd halves against Parish and in the Regional against John Paul. Nolan trailed 10-5 at the half last week, in a game where the offense was ugly. The Viking defense ultimately broke the game with 2 safeties and a fumble recovery in the end zone to produce one of the Nolan touchdowns. The Viking offense will have to be a lot better to best the Saints. They are definitely capable of better, as they produced in October. I think they are the district champs for a reason and will chalk up last week's offensive nightmare to rust after the bye week. Vikings win 35-28.

Dallas Parish Episcopal vs. Midland Christian @ Abilene Christian -- The Mustangs have been Division I's mystery. They dominated UIL power Wall in the opener, were very slow to start against Nolan on the road, outplayed Parish in a loss, and the looked terrible against John Paul on the road. They finally found that usual West Texas road footing in the playoffs. blowing out St. Pius in Houston. Last week was more of the same within a single game. The Mustangs opened a 14-0 lead in the first 5 minutes and wouldn't score again until there was less than 4 minutes to play. The defense held a potent St. Thomas team to just 7. The Panthers are the defending champions and were the clear favorites going into 2020. The loss to Nolan changed the calculus a bit, but they've looked the part in the playoffs. They controlled the 2nd half in a 44-24 win over Prestonwood last week. It was just a 2 point win for Parish back in October, and they needed a last second touchdown to get that win. This should be a close game, much closer than last season's 44-6 playoff drubbing dished out by Parish. I'm not sure its as close as October, but it should be a good contest. Parish seems to be the better team and you better beat the Mustangs before the title game, since they've never lost one of those in TAPPS. Panthers survive, 28-24.

Shiner St. Paul vs. Tomball Rosehill Christian @ Giddings -- Our Division IV brethren get talked about less than the others, but Shiner St. Paul is always the team to beat in the small schools. With a smaller enrollment that the eventual champions of two 6-man divisions they are the the 2-time defending state champions. They've taken different paths each year, in 2018 they were 2-8 in the regular season and won 4 playoff rounds and the title. In 2019, they were a more traditional champ at 10-3. Then 2020, everything is different. The Cardinals are 6-1, only losing to San Antonio Holy Cross. They opened the season with a 21-17 win over this Rosehill Christian squad. The Eagles have seen an uneven 4-4 season, but the 3 losses other than St. Paul came to teams outside the division. This shapes up as a defensive struggle, but the weather looks better for this week than last. Rosehill has a very good chance to turn the tables here, but hasn't been as consistent as St. Paul. The winner here should be favored in the title game next week. Cardinals get back to the title game, 33-20. 

Quick Hits: (Season: 72-23)

Colleyville Covenant over Arlington Grace Prep
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Lubbock Trinity Christian
San Antonio Holy Cross over Magnolia Legacy Prep
Houston Cypress Christian over League City Bay Area Christian
Waco Reicher over Dallas First Baptist

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