Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Semifinal/State Final Playoff Picks 2020

2 champions will be crowned this week and 2 more next week. I will lodge my annual complaint in this space that 2 DFW schools driving to Waco to play this game makes basically no sense. In divisions where the bracketing can set up a predetermined site, like Divisions II and III, it makes plenty of sense. Division IV isn't as crazy as last year when two schools separated by 14 miles drove 160 to play. Anyway, I complain once a year about this and that is that for another year. Should be a bunch of exciting games this week, especially the Division I title game. Lots of the "usual suspects" playing for the crown. Just 8 games left in TAPPS 11-man this season. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 58-21)

Dallas Christian vs. Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Birdville -- The Chargers are the expected team this deep in the playoffs, though this will be the latest in year Dallas Christian has ever played a football game. The Eagles are the surprise in the Division II semifinals, at 8-1 they have more wins this season than any since MaxPreps started saving records in 2004. This is there 1st semifinal appearance since 1999, when they finished as state runner-up in Class 3A. The Chargers have been dominant all year with a 28 point margin over Grapevine Faith in the regional round standing as the closest game of the season. At 8-0, DC has been the favorite to reach the title game out of Districts 1 and 2 since an early blowout of Liberty and has scored 56+ in 6 of the 8 wins. Faith offered a little more resistance to the Chargers, but the DC defense held strong and has only allowed more than 14 points once all season. The Eagles bested FWC for the 2nd time this season in the regional, 35-28. Southwest had lost 11 in a row to FWC before this year. The Eagles announced their presence this season with a district opening win over Grapevine Faith 33-7. The only blemish is a bad 2nd half at Legacy that led to a 46-19 defeat. Given DC's 2 blowouts of Legacy that is not encouraging for the Eagles chances. I think Southwest has shown to be the best team offensively in District 1, and their style of offense should limit DC somewhat. I just can't see enough to reverse those Legacy scores. Chargers win 35-21.

Austin Regents vs. Houston Second Baptist @ Giddings -- The Knights and Eagles meet in the semifinal for the 3rd year in a row. Second Baptist will try their hand at Giddings this time after Brenham and Waller ended in matching 35-0 defeats in 2018 and 2019. The Eagles hope to crack the scoreboard in try #3. In 4 meetings since 2016, Second Baptist has scored just 20 total points. While they've been more competitive than most of the squads Regents has taken down on the way to 4 consecutive title games, the Eagles have struggled mightily offensively despite being known as an offensive powerhouse in the Houston area. This year they've scored 30+ in all 7 games in route to a 6-1 record. The Knights are undefeated again at 8-0, having suffered just 2 regular season losses since 2016. If you pick a Regents game at random from the last 5 seasons, you're more likely to land on a state title game than a regular season loss and you won't find any playoff defeats outside of 4 title games. That's a 58-6 record in that span. The Knights blew out St. Michael's in the opener and those Crusaders went on to beat everyone not named Second Baptist. Its felt like a march to a DC-Regents title game with Regents scoring 42 in every game this season, so I'm not going to breakup that medieval themed matchup in Waco next week. I think Second Baptist will be closer than anyone else though. We avoid an Eagles in the title game as Regents wins 42-28.

Colleyville Covenant Christian vs. Fort Worth Lake Country Christian @ Globe Life Park -- The Cougars fought COVID more than most teams to make it this far, entering the semis at just 6-0. With 27 days between games they defeated Lake Country Christian on the road 28-21 on October 30. The Eagles could be one of the only TAPPS teams to reach 10 wins this season with a revenge win this week. They avoided all cancellations and have just the Bi-district bye in the playoffs as they're only week off. Covenant accounts for the lone mark against Lake Country's 9-1 record. These two dominated the rest of district 1, outside of the Lubbock pair, where they both still scored victories. They wiped out District 2 in the playoffs. Have to think that this will be another game that looks a lot like the first meeting. I think the Eagles have the stronger offense, but admittedly we have only 6 results for the Cougars. Flip a coin really in this one. I think this is the closest of the 4 semifinals this week. Cougars win 30-29.

San Antonio Holy Cross vs. Houston Cypress Christian @ Victoria -- The Knights moved down to Division III and are happy to not see Regents in the playoffs. Holy Cross lost to Regents 8 times since 2015, including 3 times in the playoffs. The Warriors also moved down to Division III this alignment, returning back to a classification where they had been very successful, winning a state tile in 2017. They also brought in Kris Hogan from Grapevine Faith to be the new head coach after going just 2-8 last season. The COVID season has seen Cypress play just 7 times amassing a 5-2 record while going 5-0 against Division III and IV opponents. The The Warriors have struggled offensively some, managing just 10 against Tyler Grace and 21 in a win over Brazos Christian. The Knights hare 6-2 and also looked good against like sized opposition, but an ugly loss to Central Texas Christian, 40-14, isn't a good data point for Holy Cross. The Knights offense seems like the best unit here, with 162 points in 3 games since the ugly defeat. The Warriors will not be an easy out though. Knights win 35-28.

Division I State Championship: Fort Worth Nolan vs. Dallas Parish Episcopal -- Our first look at a state title game in 2020 takes us to District 1 in Division I. Always a powerhouse group when not split up like the last alignment, this year took it to another level as District 2 did not manage to win a single playoff game. The Panthers are the defending champs, having beaten surprising John Paul II 42-14 in last year's title game. The Vikings figured to be Parish's primary opposition for that title last season, but were ousted by John Paul in their first playoff game. This year's 8-0 season saw Nolan beat Parish 31-14 on November 13 to claim the district championship. It hasn't been a dominant season for Nolan, but that is probably a testament to the strength of District 1 more than anything. The Vikings will interestingly play only district opponents this season. The Panthers were expected to be the dominant team after last year's title. Beating Prestonwood by 61 points combined in 2 meetings reflects that. Surviving Midland Christian with a last second touchdown did not. Returning that matchup with a 34 point win in the semis does. If the best Parish team presents itself in Waco on Saturday night I think they are favorites. Nolan has been the more consistent squad this season, scoring 31+ in every game. This shapes up to a really good game, I think these two will light up the scoreboard in a 2nd meeting. I also believe Parish is the better team despite losing the 1st meeting. Parish has won all 3 trips to a TAPPS title game. Nolan is 7-4 in its previous title games, but this is their first since 2013. They reached 9 of 10 in a streak that ended in 2013. I'm taking the Panthers to win a 4th state title, but barely. Parish wins its 4th state title, 35-33.

Division IV State Championship: Waco Reicher vs. Shiner St. Paul -- The Cardinals are back in the state final for the 3rd year in a row as they try to three-peat as Division IV champs. This is the 12th title game for the 8-time champion Cardinals. They've taken different paths through the years, but as evidenced by winning the title after a 2-8 regular season one year, they always get better as the season goes. The Cardinals turned a season opening 4 point win over Rosehill into a 35 point win in the semis. St. Paul has won a state title 6 of the last 10 seasons, including 2 in Division III when TAPPS dropped to 3 divisions. Given a smaller enrollment than the two schools that will play for the 6-man Division I title on Friday, this space is always an admirer of the Cardinals. The Cougars are 4-0 in TAPPS title games, but are in their first since winning 3 in a row between 2007 and 2009. Reicher started just 1-4 on the season but have found their groove to win 4 in a row. Notably, a 27-22 win over Central Texas Christian in the regional round given CTC had beaten Division III semifinalist Holy Cross. The Cardinals have to be a clear favorite here, but they've not been as good defensively as some seasons. The Cougars should score some points, but I can't see it being enough. St. Paul wins its 9th state title, 44-28.

Quick Hits finishes the year at 77-23.

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