Week 5 Picks 2021

Another week in the blender and district play hits week 2 in the largest districts. We have some definite favorites, but a few contenders still looking to jump up and challenge for the crown.

This Week: (Season: 20-11)

Dallas Christian @ Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian -- The Chargers travel south to the Houston area after being thoroughly beaten by TCA a week ago, 46-26. The most points DC has allowed in a game since 2017. The Eagles feature a DC alum at head coach and are off to a 2-2 start with the losses coming by just 13 points combined. After a down cycle where they actually had to cancel a game due to low numbers, they've rebounded to 5-5 and then 7-3 in consecutive years. They reached the Regional round last year, before falling to the eventual champs in Regents. Fort Bend needs to keep the offensive form to beat DC. 40 would have won last week against Fulshear and that's probably what you need to beat DC. Now we saw last week that it is possible. I expect the Chargers to rebound. DC wins 42-21.

Tyler Grace Community @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- The Cougars were being run over through the first 3 weeks, scoring just 14 points. Hosting Tenaha didn't feel like a perfect chance to right the ship, but they did. A 36-14 win over a highly ranked UIL program will certainly put them back in the mix. After a 5-2 season last year, it seemed they shouldn't be quite as bad as the first 3 weeks. They will certainly be well tested for district play. The Eagles are off to a rough start at 0-4. They've been improving though. After seeing 50-burgers put up by Liberty and Prestonwood, they still allowed 69 to John Paul while scoring 43 of their own. Then a closer 31-7 score against Brook Hill gives a bit of hope for district play. With 4 teams making the playoffs in Districts 1 and 2 it is very much in range for both teams despite a combined 1-7 start. The Cougar offense scored 36 on Tenaha, they should find 40 against the Eagles. Grace wins 44-28.

Bullard Brook Hill @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Guard travel to Fort Worth for what is a rare non-district rematch from 2020. Hard to pair up the two teams from last year's odd schedule. This season Brook Hill has an impressive 3-1 start with wins over Tenaha, Wills Point, and Frisco Legacy. The Cardinals have started 0-3 and enter this one after an off week. No ugly losses in the bunch, but allowing 41 in back-to-back games is never encouraging. How do the Cardinals get to a winning number against the Guard defense? Brook Hill has allowed just 50 points through 4 games, and 28 came in their lone loss. I'm not sure the Guard have the best offense, but I don't think it matters here. Guard wins 28-14.

Fort Worth Southwest Christian @ Addison Trinity Christian -- The Trojans return to Tom Landry Stadium after dominating DC for much of the game last week. The 46-26 victory is TCA's biggest since winning a playoff game in 2017. TCA won 4 games last year in the shortened season after having won just 3 in the 3 seasons before. The Eagles (another one?) jumped back into the mix last season, reaching the semifinals after not winning a playoff game for a decade. Southwest is off to a 3-1 start and would have practically been the SPC champs if they'd managed a 4th straight win last week against ESD. The trend has been the wrong direction offensively for the Eagles. Dropping from 50 in week 1 to 10 in week 4. The opposition has been improving in that span too and this is another step. I think Southwest gets back to scoring, but the 46 posted by TCA last week has to put opponents on notice. Trojans win 42-28.

Midland Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- These two met in a classic out west last season, with the Panthers staging a late comeback to win 34-32. The Mustangs looked great in their 3-0 start, and weren't pushovers last week against Nolan. However, allowing 48 is not going to win many games in the deep District 1. Starting with two district losses would make it almost impossible to reach a top 2 finish and 1st round bye. The Panthers have their own 3-1 start, with a lone defeat against Austin LBJ. It hasn't been as dominant as two seasons ago, but the Panthers have to be the favorite in Division I right now. MCS is always ready to travel, and I'm sure they'll be a tough out for Parish. I just can't see Parish getting shut down at home when Nolan scored 48 on the road. Panthers win 38-28.

Grapevine Faith Christian vs. San Antonio Holy Cross @ Mary Hardin-Baylor -- The Lions had a bit of a down season a year ago (at least by their high standards) with a 5-3 record and regional round exit. The reversed last year's loss to Nevada Community in a big fashion with a 41-7 win over the Braves last week. Notably, Faith has allowed just 13 points on the season. Given the opponents they probably aren't that dominant, but its still going to be tough for Holy Cross to score. The Knights have been a strong program in Division II for a number of years, before moving to Division III last season. The change in fortunes for Holy Cross if they hadn't seen Regents so much would be striking. Regents took 8 in a row from their Knight counterparts before Holy Cross dropped a division. The defense has always led the charge for the Knights with the offense trailing behind. This season supports that trend again with just 22 points allowed and entering off of consecutive shutouts. The Lions offense will have to produce the points against its toughest test since Week 1. While the road trip gives me some pause, Faith wins 35-15.

San Antonio St. Anthony @ Brownsville St. Joseph -- The Yellowjackets have lost 9 in a row dating back to 2019. Just 2 losses on the campaign so far and hard to know how these two will match up. The 1-2 start for the Bloodhounds includes a victory over Santa Rosa and a respectable 35 points scored at Hebbronville last week. The Hounds probably have to be favored over a struggling St. Anthony squad, and with the game all the way south in Brownsville that cements it further. Bloodhounds win 41-14.

Quick Hits: (Season: 30-10)

McKinney Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Austin Regents over Austin St. Michael's
Boerne Geneva over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Fort Worth Nolan over Dallas Bishop Lynch
Plano Prestonwood over Plano John Paul II
Fort Worth All Saints over Argyle Liberty Christian
Episcopal School of Dallas over Cedar Hill Newman International
Colleyville Covenant Christian over Lubbock Trinity Christian
Waco Reicher over Dallas First Baptist
Shiner St. Paul over Magnolia Legacy Prep