Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Week 1 Picks 2022

We're back for year 8 of the unique look at week's private school matchups. This is the continuation of what began on the LSCSN message board and continues the the discussion going back to txprivatesports.com. There are plenty of other places for additional opinions, but what you see here are the sole musings of the committee of 1. Find LSCSN on Twitter or the Private School FB podcast if you'd like to hear a few others. Plenty of good insight out there if you look. There are a few biases that will be well known to the readers of this space. I know more about DFW than other areas because that's where I'm from and where I live. We try to hit a bit of the rest of the state each week, but if I don't get to your school its nothing personal. The username gives away my school bias, and this space is biased against the overused mascot of Eagles (sorry if that's your team). We've got 15 weeks to the finals in Waco and we'll try and pick every one of them. Feel free to give feedback in the comments or @Cav_0 on Twitter. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week:

Dallas Christian @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Chargers mostly dominated Division II a season ago in route to the school's 9th State football championship. It wasn't a cake walk, but a tidy 19 point victory over Second Baptist finished the season in Waco on top of the mountain. After winning Division II it puts the Chargers as a strong favorite in Division III following realignment. The Falcons finished last season at 4-5 and last place in District 2 of Division II. Ultimately the game with DC was cancelled last season and its been a struggle post-COVID for Bishop Dunne. The shortened 2020 season saw an 0-4 scoreless season that included a 73-0 defeat at DC. Before then 2013-2018 was a golden age for the Falcons, including multiple state final appearances and the 2014 state championship. All of that was in Division I. The downturn seemed to start with a crazy 11 OT loss to John Paul II in 2019. That game launched John Paul's run to the state final and now they're out of Division I also. The Chargers last trip to Rugged Drive in 2014 was a dominate outing for Bishop Dunne that opened a state championship season for the Falcons. In 2014 and 2015 Bishop Dunne beat DC 51-0 and 45-17, respectively. This will be challenge for Dunne, but they should be more competitive than 2020. The path in Division II may be more accommodating this season and the Chargers should give a good indication about how 2022 campaigns will go for both teams. Chargers win 41-12.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard hosted Faith in Round 1 of the 2021 playoffs and the two played a classic game where a blocked punt in the final 5 minutes led to the Faith's go ahead touchdown and a 21-14 road playoff win for the Lions. This season will not end with a meeting between the two since Brook Hill moves to Division III. The Lions appear the on paper favorite in District 2 of Division II this season as the only member to win a playoff game last season. The Lions won the 2016 state title and then played well in the following seasons but TCCH was the juggernaut for a bit after that. Its been a little bit of a struggle since Coach Hogan's departure with just a 13-7 record in the two seasons. The Guard's 6-4 season in 2021 was marked by some struggles offensively. The defense though was excellent with three victories where the Guard offense did not reach 30 points. With early season defense usually ahead of the offense's this looks to be a low scoring game. I think Faith is the better bunch but its all a bit of a mystery this early. Lions win 20-16.

Aledo @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The three-time reigning champions in Division I will see one of the strongest non-district schedules ever played by a TAPPS member. The Panthers are the 2019, 2020, and 2021 state champions and haven't lost to a TAPPS opponent since the final week of the 2020 regular season. Each championship season saw one defeat and the Panthers have yet to achieve an undefeated season in program history. If Parish clears this non-district schedule without a loss its hard to imagine anyone in Division I knocking the them off. UIL power Aledo opens the slate, followed by SPC power Bellaire Episcopal. 2021 State Finalist Austin LBJ is the 3rd opponent and defending State Champion South Oak Cliff is Week 4. Quite the run of opponents. The Bearcats won three in-a-row before losing to South Oak Cliff last year in Round 3. Aledo has won 9 state titles since 2009. Nothing is ever a given in football, but a win here by Parish makes them an even bigger favorite for 4 in-a-row. I think Bearcats have enough to keep the Panthers from going undefeated. Aledo wins a close one, 30-27.

Fort Worth All Saints @ Fort Worth Nolan -- The realignment after last season produced several rematches of district games in 2021 that will be cross Division meetings in 2022. The Saints slide down to Division II and travel to the Vikings who are the last TAPPS team to beat Parish Episcopal. Nolan had a odd year where games were forfeited and coaches changed mid-season. A 42-37 loss to Midland Christian ended the Vikings season in Round 2. The Saints fell to San Antonio Central in Round 2 after winning a Round 1 road game over Antonian. District 1 appears the stronger of the North districts in Division II and the Saints are definitely a contender. Its a hard game to pick when you only have last season to go on, but Nolan's 29-7 win a season ago and with the game at Nolan they have to be the pick here. Vikings win 35-21.

Episcopal School of Dallas @ Addison Trinity Christian -- The Trojans finished 2021 as the TAPPS League champions, dominating San Antonio TMI 67-0 in the championship game. A 9-2 season included a win over Division II champions Dallas Christian. It also included a 28-0 loss to these ESD Eagles. The Eagles had a 10-0 regular season before dropping the title game rematch with Houston Kinkaid. Trying to figure out how the different TAPPS and SPC divisions fit competitively is always a challenge and this game should give us a good look in how those fit together in 2022. Both defenses should be the better units this season and early season tends to favor defense. Look for a low scoring game, but strange things happen when the lights are on. Trojans avenge last season's loss, 16-14.

Midland Christian @ El Paso Americas -- The Mustangs lost their first state final since 1990 last season. After winning 12 finals appearances in a row, Parish Episcopal proved too much last December. It was an offseason of change in the Permian Basin with longtime head coach Greg McClendon departing and former Prestonwood head coach Chris Cunningham incoming. A more pass heavy game has traditionally been Coach Cunningham's plan, but Prestonwood had a number of strong rushing attacks through the years as well. Things probably won't be too different out West, but it will be a change none the less. The Trailblazers have been a regular non-district opponent for MCS, opening last year with the unusual Friday afternoon tilt and then this year on Thursday night. In 2021, it was a dominant outing for the Mustangs with a 42-7 win to open the slate. The seven previous meetings saw MCS win five of them. The Trailblazers finished just 3-8 last year, and face probably too much of an uphill battle this week. Mustangs win 41-21.

Dublin @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals had an up and down season a year ago, finishing 4-8. However, it was a 1-7 start that was followed by 2 district wins and a playoff win that changes the way you might normally feel about a 4 win season. When the offense got going the Cardinals were very competitive. Getting that part of their game right much earlier this season will make for a better record. The Lions reached Round 3 of the UIL playoffs in 2021 as part of a 9-4 season. They played a lot of close games and this points to being another one. I think FWC should have a better start this season and home game to open gives them the edge here. Cardinals win 28-20.

Hurst L.D. Bell @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- Having fun mascots gets you in the week's picks. The Friars host the Blue Raiders to open the season. Lynch will see Nolan twice on a difficult schedule that includes three state champions from last season. The Blue Raiders are the other school in Euless Trinity's school district and its been a struggle. Bell last won more than 3 games in 2013. The Friars won just five games last year, but two of them were playoff games. Ultimately they suffered the same fate as the rest of Division I, losing to Parish Episcopal. This should be a nice home win to open the season. Friars win 42-6.

Quick Hits:

Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Fort Worth Trinity Valley
Dallas St. Marks over Fort Worth Country Day
Plano Prestonwood Chrsitian over Argyle Liberty Christian
Arlington Grace Prep over Arlington Oakridge
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Tomball Rosehill Christian
Houston Christian over Houston Lutheran South
Austin Regents over San Antonio Central Catholic
Winona over Tyler Grace Community
Irving Cistercian over Plano John Paul II
Shiner St. Paul over Flatonia

Historical Results:
2015: 94-16
2016: 79-25
2017: 78-32
2018: 88-22
2019: 89-21
2020: 64-23
2021: 85-29

Quick Hits:
2015: 60-15
2016: 103-26
2017: 101-29
2018: 102-28
2019: 103-27
2020: 77-23
2021: 105-25

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