Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Week 8 Picks 2022

District play is in full swing and the road to the state title is becoming clearer. Favorites and underdogs try to line themselves up for a successful November. With Dallas Christian off this week, we need a different flavor for the picks. So we'll take a look at 7 district games from across all 4 11-man divisions and in 7 different districts. Some old and new rivalries that will decide who hosts those 1st round playoff games. Good luck and safe travels to all this week!

This Week: (Season: 42-12)

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Fort Worth Nolan -- Our first stop is in Division I, District 1. The Lions took a season opening loss at home as the Argyle Liberty defense controlled the Prestonwood offense. Since then its been good living for the Lions, now at a 5-1 mark on the season. After winning 3 in a row by just 8 combined points, the Prestonwood offense has come to life in blowouts of San Antonio Cornerstone and TCA. The Vikings have seen the opposite season from their opponents so far. They started with a 16 point over Fort Worth All Saints (who Prestonwood beat by just 3) and then its been dire since then. Now at 1-5 on the season, the Vikings will try to find the form that saw a minimum of 8 wins on the field in each of the last 4 seasons. Notably in 2020 they took down Parish Episcopal in the regular season meeting before having the tables turned in the state final. How do the Vikings find that defensive form again? They just haven't shown it this year, but the opposition has been as strong as any 1-5 team to this point in the season. The bad news is the district opponents are as good as the non-district ones. Vikings did win last year's meeting, 35-31, but I think have too much to overcome in this one. Lions win 31-24.

Midland Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- Next we move to Division II and District 1 for another renewal Midland-Liberty. Both schools drop down from Division I a season ago and both have moved in opposite directions this season. The Warriors finished a disastrous 2-8 last season, out of the playoffs. The Mustangs finished 10-3, losing in the state final. This season its the Warriors at 6-1 and the Mustangs just 3-3. Liberty opened the season holding Prestonwood to just 7 and then just allowing 20 in their only loss to ESD. ESD remains unbeaten and the Warriors defense really hadn't been punctured until last week in the 4th quarter against Fort Worth Christian. FWC closed the margin to just 10 late, but its been the best season since 2018 for Liberty. They've also lost at least 5 games every season since 2013, and so guarantee their best record since then with a win this week. The Mustangs started 1-3 and were sputtering a bit offensively. Traveling all over the state from El Paso to Texarkana probably didn't help. They've been regaining that form in two home wins and now face a tough test. The Warrior defense is too much I think, particularly in Argyle. Maybe we'll get something to put in the history books of this storied rivalry like The Game of Inches or Showergate. I'm sure the Mustangs would be thrilled with just repeating last year's 48-20 victory. Warriors turn the tables in 2022, winning 28-13.

Austin Hyde Park @ Austin Regents -- The Knights have dominated Division II District 3, winning the last 6 district titles. They've started this season at their customary 6-0 pace. The Panthers have also started 6-0 this season, reaching 6 wins for the first time since 2018. A 3-0 district record is the most district wins for the Panthers since 2017. Hyde Park took 3 out of 4 in the series with Regents around those years, but 2015 was the last time the Panthers topped the Knights. Recent years has seen the Panthers fall with the rest of District 3 to the Knights' lance. Hyde Park hasn't scored in this matchup since 2018. Both squads saw dominant outings in the first 2 district outings before squeaking by the next tier of opponents last week. The Panthers defeated St. Michael's in OT and the Knights survived the long road to Brownsville by 10. Regents does not appear to be quite as far ahead of District 3 as recent years, but I don't think its enough for Hyde Park to overturn their most recent 42-0 defeat by the Knights. Regents win 42-21.

Fort Bend Christian @ Houston Second Baptist -- Division II District 4 was decided a season ago with this battle. The Eagles won both meetings, but Fort Bend won the regular season matchup before Second Baptist turned the tables in the state semifinals. Fort Bend is just 3-3 on the season, but losses to SPC contender St. Johns, UIL power Cibolo Steele, and at Division III favorite Dallas Christian is pretty good murderers row for three losses. Second Baptist is just 2-4 so far in 2022, but has seen the SPC gauntlet of Epsicopal, Kinkaid, and St. Johns. With just 5 wins between them in 14 weeks it might seem someone will push these two off the top step, but no one has shown that form in District 4 so far. Maybe The Woodlands Christian can get in the mix, but I think this game decides the top spot. Fort Bend has been better this year, but both teams seem to have the struggle with stringing together the big plays at the right moments. I think they'll both score plenty and I'll lean home team. Second Baptist wins 36-34, but think rematch in November.

Lubbock Trinity Christian @ Fort Worth Lake Country Christian -- In Division III, Dallas Christian seems to be the favorite after winning Division II last year. In District 1, the champion will likely avoid DC until the semifinals. So far the Lions and Eagles are the top of the district. The Eagles 6-0 start has put them on the map after going just 4-7 a season ago. Lake Country has been a frequent contender in Division III or IV, but seems to on the seesaw from year to year. In 2020, the Eagles won 10 games despite the shortened season. The Lions arrow has been pointing up since starting their football program in 2014. The steady progress saw Trinity reach the state final in 2021. This season a 4-2 campaign has only seen losses to Albany and Division II contender Argyle Liberty. The Lions have almost certainly played the better schedule and last season's 42-13 win for Trinity in Fort Worth looms over this year's rematch. Lions cement their place at the top of District 1 and win 35-26.

Dallas The Covenant @ Bullard Brook Hill -- In District 2 of Division II, Dallas Christian is the elephant in the room. Last week's 47-7 loss for Covenant to DC just further declared that status. The Knights are 5-1 so far on the season, only dropping last week's district opener. Brook Hill has been battling DC for those district honors since 2012, but only bested them once in 2014. The struggles of the other two district members so far point to this game deciding 2nd place and the other host in round 1 of the playoffs. The Guard are just 3-3, really lacking that signature win having lost both non-district games against TAPPS opponents. The Brook Hill offense should be more on track after last week's 54 point outburst against Shelton. At home with the Knights making their first trip into the Piney Woods, it should be the Guard's day but this won't be an easy won. Brook Hill survives a high scoring affair, 44-40.

Shiner St. Paul @ Hallettsville Sacred Heart -- In Division IV we go to District 2, where a solo district opener will take place before the others get into the act in Week 9. These two Catholic schools make up the northern portion of the Victoria Diocese and the campuses are just 14 miles apart. The Cardinals are the 4-time defending champions of Division IV and have won 6 of the last 7. They even won a Division III title this decade when TAPPS went to just 3 divisions. Its been a rocky start so far for St. Paul, just 3-4 through 7 weeks. Notably a loss to Muenster Sacred Heart might remove favorite status from the Cardinals. Finding offense against the top teams has been the struggle thus far for St. Paul. The Indians are also 3-4 and have been with St. Paul at the top in recent years, losing the 2019 state final by just 4 points. This will be the 8th meeting since 2018, and the 23rd meeting since 2005 for the longtime rivals. St. Paul has the 15-7 edge in that time. The pick has to come down to Magnolia Legacy as a common opponents. The Cardinals beat them 49-6 and he Indians lost 41-38 a week ago. Indians won't be an easy out, but Cardinals take the this one and set up a likely district title and 1st round bye in the Division IV playoffs. St. Paul wins 48-28.

Quick Hits: (Season: 49-21)

Dallas Bishop Lynch over Addison Trinity Christian
San Antonio Central Catholic over San Antonio Antonian
Fort Worth All Saints over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Dallas Bishop Dunne over Frisco Legacy Christian
Brownsville St. Joseph over Austin St. Michael's
Victoria St. Joseph over San Antonio St. Anthony
Houston Lutheran South over Beaumont Kelly
Arlington Grace Prep over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Dallas Shelton over McKinney Christian
Weatherford Christian over Dallas First Baptist

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