Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Week 9 Picks 2022

The road is coming to a end as the playoffs are just a few days away. Lots will be decided this week, especially in the SPC where the regular season ends next week. Many big games out west this week. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 48-13)

Bullard Brook Hill @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers return from the bye week for the final three district contests. At 6-1, its been a good season but the loss to Fort Worth Christian will sting a bit. They did respond by pushing Dallas Covenant out of the ranks of unbeaten in the district opener. Covenant went on to beat Brook Hill last week, 28-14. The Guard have alternated losses and wins for the entire season so far, putting them at 3-4 on the season. The only way back into the top 2 and a first round home game will require scoring a road upset this week. Brook Hill allowed too many points in the non-district slate, holding only 1 team under 29. In two district games they've let in just 28 total points, but the Charger offense figures to be a big test. The Chargers have scored 24 or more in all seven games so far this year. Only the FWC loss saw fewer than four touchdowns scored. The Chargers are too much at home here. DC wins 42-16.

McKinney Christian @ Dallas The Covenant -- The Knights started the season 5-0 before a bye week and big home game against district favorite Dallas Christian. After limiting DC to just 14 in the first half, the margin grew in the later stages to a 40-point gap. They returned to the field with a road trip to other district favorite, Brook Hill. After winning 28-14 on the road, it's the Knights that figure to be hosting in Round 1. The Mustangs have struggled in 2022, holding just a 2-5 mark on the season. However, for the time being they are tied for the district lead with DC at 1-0. MCA won a shootout 58-31 over Shelton to begin the district slate last week. The Mustangs should score a bit here. Having posted 58 last week to go with 4 touchdowns against other likely playoff teams, Lake Country and Dallas First Baptist. The Knights have the best wins though among these two and should be a clear victor. Covenant wins 42-16.

Arlington Grace Prep @ Lubbock Trinity Christian -- With District 2 seeming to be headed toward Dallas Christian and Covenant as the top 2, District 1 will look to see who will be visiting its top 2. The season so far suggests this one may decide the district crown. The Lubbock Trinity Lions are still in their first decade of varsity football and after reaching the state final a year ago picked up where they left off. The 5-2 season so far has seen dominant performances against TAPPS squads. A 97-0 combined score through 2 district games puts TCS at the top. While we want to look at a Trinity-DC semifinal, there are several hurdles for both to clear before Thanksgiving. The other Lions from Grace Prep are the next hurdle, holding a 4-3 record after Willow Park Trinity forfeited a week ago. Its been an up and down season that has seen 3 close wins for Grace Prep. Just 5, 7, and 5 for the margins of victory in the three wins. GPA has scored quite a few points on the season. 42 against a good SPC team in Cistercian being notable. Southwest Christian was a semifinalist in Division II last year and lost to this Grace Prep squad at home. Trinity will not have an easy one here, but particularly with the long trip to the South Plains the western Lions should have the edge. Lubbock Trinity wins 35-20.

Fort Worth Nolan @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The Panthers have won 3 straight titles in the largest TAPPS division and seem poised to get a 4th consecutive crown. The 6-1 start for Parish includes wins over notable programs Aledo, Austin LBJ, and China Spring. The lone loss to defending UIL champion South Oak Cliff is nothing to lose sleep over. The Vikings were the projected foil in District 1 to the favored Panthers, but its been an ugly season so far. The 1-6 mark is the Vikings worst start since 2015. However, other than the loss to Bishop Lynch its been a murderers row of opposition to accumulate those losses. Division III favorite DC, UIL power College Station, Division I contenders Prestonwood and St. Thomas. The trip to the blue field on Midway Rd. adds another challenge this week for the Vikings. The loss to Prestonwood being of such a large margin, 42-7, points to this being quite the struggle for Nolan. Panthers continue their march to 4 straight. Parish wins 42-6.

Fort Worth Christian @ Midland Christian -- The Cardinals jumped up the Division II rankings with wins over Dallas Christian and Grapevine Faith in back-to-back weeks. They had a chance to move up to the top spot while hosting Argyle Liberty and a 1st half deficit proved too much to overcome, falling 44-34. The Mustangs have started to emerge from a tumultuous off-season, winning back-to-back home games over Del Rio and All Saints and holding Argyle Liberty to just 24 points in Argyle. At only 3-4, but with a 1-1 district record, hosting Round 1 is still on the table for MCS. The winner has a clear inside track to the runner-up finish with both teams having already played Liberty. A low scoring slugfest feels likely here. The Mustangs haven't allowed 30 points at home since Parish did it in 2020. The Cardinals held everyone under 30 until Liberty last week. 4 TDs will win this one. Cardinals survive the long trip. FWC wins 28-21.

Dallas First Baptist @ Lubbock Christian -- The Saints travel the road west with many teams in TAPPS this week. Our 3rd game west of Eastland takes us to Division IV. The large District 1 has been playing district games for 4 weeks already and that seemed to set a clear favorite in Lubbock Christian. Then the Eagles lost to Weatherford Christian and Weathford Christian turned around and lost to First Baptist the next week. These 3 and Muenster Sacred Heart will battle to be the top 3 and avoid 1st round road games. At 6-1 and already defeating Sacred Heart plus having this one at home, the Eagles have the inside track to a high finish. The Saints are 4-3 having taken blowout losses to Division III contenders Dallas Christian and Covenant and allowing 60 points to Muenster Sacred Heart. It looked like they might take another big loss to Weatherford Christian, falling down 28 in the 1st half. The Saints came roaring back though to get a 50-49 win. There should be lots of offense in this one, but the Eagles look to be the better squad. Lubbock Christian wins 56-35.

Houston St. John's @ Episcopal School of Dallas -- The top of SPC 4A is quite crowded. Its just a 5 team division but only 2 places in the title game are up for grabs. Everyone but St. Marks seems to be fighting for those spots. The Eagles OT loss to Kinkaid last week forces them into a must win game at home. The Mavericks were dominated by Bellaire Episcopal, 41-7. ESD defeated Bellaire Episcopal 39-35. The winner here just needs to win their final game to make the title game. The Eagle defense has proven tough to score against including a stretch where they allowed just 14 points across three games. The Mavericks defense hasn't been as good, but its still gotten them to 6-2 on the season. ESD has just enough at home. Eagles win 28-22.

Houston Kinkaid @ Bellaire Episcopal -- The Falcons secured a 20-17 OT win over ESD last week, and would almost certainly be in the title game with a road win here. The Knights are a very good squad with a 6-2 mark so far and since they are playing their final scheduled contest here have a lot on the line. A loss for Episcopal probably ends the season. Kinkaid would finish ahead of them and ESD likely would too as they hold a head-to-head victory over the Knights. The Falcons could defeat St. John's next week and probably get in the title game even with a loss here. Kinkaid needs to find their offense here, as I don't think last week's 20 would be enough to overcome the Knights. Knights win at home 38-23.

Quick Hits: (Season: 54-25)

Plano Prestonwood Christian over Dallas Bishop Lynch
San Antonio Antonian over Houston St. Pius X
Argyle Liberty Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Tyler Grace Community over Frisco Legacy Christian
Austin Regents over San Antonio St. Anthony
Austin St. Michael's over San Antonio Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Houston Lutheran South
Fort Bend Christian over The Woodlands Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Colleyville Covenant
Shiner St. Paul over Temple Central Texas Christian
The Woodlands John Cooper over Fort Worth Trinity Valley

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