Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Week 1 Picks 2024

The 10th anniversary of the wayward picks column probably calls for celebration, but there were once again too many teams named Eagles to much celebrating. It should be another fun season as we get used to some new alignments and a couple top contenders in new divisions. Dallas First Baptist, Dallas Christian, and Parish Episcopal will attempt to defend the Divisions IV, III, and I crowns. Parish looks for the rare 6-peat. DC looks for 4 straight. The other champions of TAPPS 11-man are Argyle Liberty Christian of Division II, but they slide up to Division I. Those clash of champions is planned for Argyle on Oct. 18 as the Panthers travel to take on the Warriors. Will that be an early indicator of a championship match to come? Or will someone else interrupt the Panthers dominance in the largest division. Thanks for joining us on the road again.

This Week:

San Antonio Cornerstone Christian @ Dallas Christian -- We'll open Week 1 with the 4 champions of 2023, and we always start things with the Chargers (there's some biases you're probably aware of). The Chargers finished 2023 at the top with a 13-1 record and the lone loss coming to an out of state opponent. Three straight championships for the Chargers will certainly have expectations sky high. DC averaged just under 48 points per game last season and returns the primary playmaker at quarterback. So the offense should pack plenty of punch. The defense allowed just 10 points per game and it was far less in the regular season. The Warriors travel north from the Alamo City and should provide a difficult task for the Chargers. It will be the 7th season in a row outside of the TAPPS umbrella for Cornerstone and coming off a 5-6 season that saw a gamut of opponents. Division I powers, Parish and Prestonwood, to go with elite UIL programs in China Spring, Carthage, and Gunter account for 5 of the 6 losses. Even with those challenges they scored 60 more points than they allowed on the season. The Warriors visited Wheeler Field in 2019 for the schools only previous meeting and DC won a OT classic 35-29. This should be a great opener, but we know how the picks in this space go. Chargers win a tight one, 33-30.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Division I champion Panthers travel west for an interesting opener. The Saints probably are an early favorite in Division II with Liberty moving to Division I. All Saints lost 3 times in 2023, but twice to Liberty. Since leaving the SPC after the 2016 season, they've been unable to punch through to the top. Its been Parish and Liberty and the other powerhouses stopping them. I think this is there best chance to scale the mountain, but some challenges will await for sure including a trip to Midland in October. All Saints could not hold Liberty under 40 points last year, and that is probably the only way they can top Parish. The Panthers are the top dogs (cats?) in TAPPS with 5 consecutive titles in the largest division. With much of a potent offense returning, they should keep the train rolling. Every journey is different though. I think the Panthers are just too much offensively. Parish wins, 42-28.

Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian vs. Argyle Liberty Christian @ Bryan -- The Warriors took down all comers in a 14-0 smashing of their schedule in 2023. They scored over 40 points in 13 of the 14. They won every game by at least 28. They won't be favorites in 2024 because Parish is now in the district with them. Liberty should be really good again, but shouldn't look too far down the track. The Eagles won the 2022 title in Division II, but struggled in 2023 starting 0-4 on the way to 6-6. They'll factor in the District 4 mix for sure, but this seems like a tough hill to climb. It will be a battle of the last two champions, but one is just too much now especially with a long road up I-45 to travel. Warriors win 44-14.

Buckeye Union (AZ) @ Dallas First Baptist -- The Saints were the other 14-0 team in TAPPS and open with an out-of-state opponent. Based on MaxPreps data, I believe it will be the 1st such game for FBA varsity football. When I decided to start with the champions I didn't know I'd have a difficult time guessing how FBA scored over 700 points last season and thanks to a playoff bye did it in just 13 games. The Saints will score early and often again this year I expect. The Hawks from the greater Phoenix area finished 7-4 last season falling in the playoffs to Eastmark. I know nothing about Eastmark, but they are the Firebirds and I feel like in Texas they would have been Eagles or Bulldogs. Take notes on this if you're opening a new school. FBA at home will be too much and add to their win streak. Saints win 42-28.

Dallas Bishop Dunne @ Dallas Bishop Lynch -- The Dallas Catholic high schools meet for the first time since 2019, a 4 season hiatus (yes, Dallas Morning News I know 5 years sounds cooler). The Friars and Falcons split a pair of state title games in 2016 and 2018. With Dunne's 2018 title being the last Division I team to claim the trophy not named Parish Episcopal. Its been a roller coaster since for Bishop Dunne. District titles and forfeits have both been seen in the 4 seasons in Division II. The Falcons finished 3-7 in 2023 and struggled to score throughout the season. They actually scored over 30% of their season points in just one game over Tyler Gorman. The Friars won just 1 game before October 28 last season, but then won 2 in a row to reach round 2 of the playoffs. Where they were reasonably competitive with a St. Thomas team that would reach the state final. Bishop Lynch should be the better squad here, but it feels like an interesting rivalry trap for the Friars. Another fun opening game to being the season. Friars win a close one, 28-25.

Episcopal School of Dallas @ Plano Prestonwood Christian -- The Lions exited the playoffs in the semifinals losing a 73-62 shootout to Houston St. Thomas. The Eagles offense will not be as good as Eagles offense (see too many Eagles again). ESD was the only team to hold Liberty under 40 points a season ago, but they were also shutout that night. Prestonwood has just been that next tier down from about a decade now. Can this be the year they push into the top group and challenge Parish? Only so much to go in in Week 1. The Eagles will provide a strong test and I think a defensive struggle is on order in this one. Lions win at home 21-14.

Redwater @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The best way to get your school in the picks? Schedule fun mascots. The Dragons travel to Herrington Stadium across the vast expanse between I-20 and I-30. The Guard finished 7-4 last year exiting the Division III playoffs with a loss to Grace Prep. Brook Hill has struggled in Division II with getting a good offensive game to go with a good defensive game. Holding high powered Dallas Christian teams to 21 but only scoring 7 themselves. Can they put those two sides together with a tough schedule that includes both Tyler Grace and Regents? The Dragons finished 4-6 in 2023. Never quite finding a consistent unit to ride to victory. The Guard seems to play about 8 close games a year, so I expect a close one and feel good about Brook Hill at home. Guard win 35-28.

Quick Hits:

Fort Worth Nolan over Arlington Grace Prep
Addison Trinity Christian over Addison Greenhill
Frisco Legacy Christian over Irving Cistercian
Tyler Grace Community over Queen City
Fort Worth Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
McKinney Christian over Plano John Paul II
San Antonio Antonian over San Antonio Holy Cross
Lorena over Austin Regents
Muenster Sacred Heart over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Gunter over Houston Kinkaid

Previous Seasons Results:
2015: 94-16
2016: 79-25
2017: 78-32
2018: 88-22
2019: 89-21
2020: 64-23
2021: 85-29
2022: 81-31
2023: 87-21

Quick Hits:
2015: 60-15
2016: 103-26
2017: 101-29
2018: 102-28
2019: 103-27
2020: 77-23
2021: 105-25
2022: 96-34
2023: 100-30

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