Week 5 Picks 2024

District play gets going for a few across the state and the weather is improving. Should be a fun week on the field. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 20-8)

Pittsburg @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers at 2-2 are off to their worst start since 2014. That year they dropped the district opener to Brook Hill in an upset, but rebounded to win their next nine and make the Division II title game. This season the defense has just not been up to the fight against a difficult schedule. DC allowed just 144 points in 14 games in 2023. In 2024, they've allowed 136 points in just 4 games. Finding a 4th straight state championship will require big strides of improvement on that side. Pittsburg visits Wheeler Field for the first time. The Pirates from East Texas won just 2 games a season ago and are off to an 0-4 start to the campaign. They've been blown out twice, but dropped a 1-point decision to Tyler Grace in Week 3. The Pirates are probably a little better than the record suggests, and their is a window to take advantage of the DC defense. If the Pirates score in the 30s this week they have a good chance at the road win. I think the Chargers get things back on track a bit though. Chargers win 35-18.

San Antonio Holy Cross @ New Braunfels Christian -- The Knights have returned to the field with something to prove after losing the state title game last season. The 4-0 start has looked every bit like a state title contender. They've scored points, they've shutout a team, they've beaten a 3rd round UIL playoff team. Holy Cross seems to have put it together this year, and with Lubbock Christian and Dallas Christian likely to be on the other side of the bracket, it might be a nice path to state. The Lions have started 4-0 and have a chance to prove they belong in the contender group. NBCA has a couple of shutouts of their own to begin the season, but hasn't seen the quality opponents like Holy Cross yet this year. The 40 points allowed to T.K. Gorman points to a big chance for the Knights offense this week. The Lions are much improved and have won four games for the first time in 11-man. They had won just three 11-man games before this season. The Lions just aren't quite there yet...I don't think. Knights win 42-14.

New Deal @ Lubbock Christian -- There are three main contenders in Division III right now, Dallas Christian, Holy Cross, and these Eagles. Lubbock Christian is off to a 3-1 start after knocking off state ranked Wellington last week. The Eagles fell in the Division IV title game a year ago and are looking like they can get back there. The Lions of New Deal defeated Sundown last week by 7 in a more defensive game. The Eagles beat Sundown in Week 2 by 33 so have to be favored here. The Lubbock Christian offense looks to be way to go in this one. Eagles win 42-21.

Austin Regents @ Bullard Brook Hill -- For the rest of the picks this week we'll look at the Division II contenders (though they may all be 2nd fiddle to All Saints). We start with a district opener between two schools that haven't played since 2011. They met 4 years in a row in the playoffs, but this will be the first ever regular season meeting. The Knights built a reputation as Division II's runner-up before breaking through with a walk-off pick 6 to win the 2020 crown. This season Regents is off to a 3-1 start that includes 3 games of 49+ points. The lone loss came at the hands SPC contender Kinkaid. The Guard may actually be down in the 3rd tier of Division II contenders, but a win over Regents would quickly raise their profile. Brook Hill is 2-1 on the season to date. They lost a 14-9 decision in a defensive struggle at Frisco Legacy. So many times the problem for Brook Hill has been the offense, and a 49 point showing over Price-Carlisle is a nice looking number. The Knights defense though may be better than the Legacy one that held the Guard to just 9 points. Brook Hill is hard to blow out at home, but won't have enough to take this one. Regents wins 32-19.

Lubbock Trinity Christian @ Stratford -- The Lions won't have to worry about DC eliminating from the playoffs this year, but find themselves with a heap of contenders in Division II. The West Texas opponents always leaves a bit of mystery when district play approaches. However, District 1 still has a couple weeks to go to the district slate. Trinity is 2-1 on the season and after dropping the season they've responded with two wins. Last week was a 8-point decision over Floydada. The Lions have to find ways to score consistently to take on All Saints later in the schedule. The Elks did not lose in 2023 until game 15 when Tolar eliminated from the 4th round of the UIL playoffs. This season has been a little more of a struggle for Stratford, with just a 1-2 start. The offense has been trending down for the Elks thus far though. They've gone from 45 to 33 to just 14 last week. The Elks are good, but appear to be a little off of a season ago. If the Lions are going to take down All Saints later this year, they need to show the offensive strength against a good team like Stratford. I think on the road though its just too big a mountain for Trinity. Elks win 28-8.

Houston Lutheran South @ Houston St. John's -- The southern portion of Division II posts a couple of candidates. First, the Pioneers travel across Houston the 20 miles to St. John's. LSA really turned heads by getting to 4-0 with a shootout win over Anahuac. The Pioneer offense has been building week to week. Going from 31 points in the opener to 54 points over Anahuac. However, they've given up a bunch of points too. The Mavericks undefeated start was spoiled by Second Baptist last week. This is a measuring stick game for LSA. If they can slow the Mavericks, they are likely good enough to battle for a high seed from District 4 and set themselves up well to avoid All Saints until the state final. St. John's can score too though, having put up 54 at Calhoun a couple weeks ago. This one should be "pointsy." However, I think the Mavericks defense is better and with the game at home that is the choice. St. John's wins 44-27.

Houston Second Baptist @ Houston Kinkaid -- The Eagles are just 3 years removed from a state final appearance and are off to their best start since 2019 with a 4-0 mark. This year is a stronger schedule than 2019 as well. Taking out top SPC teams in ESD and St. John's points to a very strong squad for SBS. Similar to Lutheran South, finishing high in District 4 sets them up nicely for a home playoff game on the side of the bracket away from Fort Worth All Saints. The Falcons are always fighting for the top of the SPC and this year should be no different. The Falcons lost just a 9-point decision against Gunter to open the season. They dominated Regents in Week 2 and now sit at 3-1. This appears to be a battle between the Falcons defense and the Eagles offense. With the game at home, I think Kinkaid narrowly wins the battle for bird superiority. Falcons win, 30-25.

Quick Hits: (Season: 29-11)

Argyle Liberty Christian over Addison Trinity Christian
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Frisco Legacy Christian
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Fort Worth Christian over Victoria St. Joseph
Wolfforth Frenship over Midland Christian
Tyler Grace Community over Austin Brentwood Christian
Fort Worth All Saints over Cottonwood (CA) West Valley (They went out of state to find another Eagles)
Arlington Grace Prep over Dallas Bishop Dunne
Tyler T.K. Gorman over Muenster Sacred Heart
Arlington Oakridge over Houston Christian