Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Week 10 Picks 2024

Find a game this week to decide a district title. We'll have much of the playoff brackets in decent shape after this week. Stay tuned to this space for match-ups and times.

This Week: (Season: 46-16)

McKinney Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers withstood a tough road test at Dallas Covenant last week. DC's defense had its first game saving moments of the year, holding a good Knights offense to just 13 points and only 6 points after the 1st series. They welcome McKinney Christian in this week for homecoming at Wheeler Field. The Mustangs are struggling again this year at just 1-6 on the season. They are coming off a 40 point loss to Tyler All Saints. They're seeing the scoreboard rolled over on them constantly with an average of 50 points allowed per game. MCA has not had a winning season since 2017, a team that reached the state final. The Chargers are rarely the team you want to see when you need a win, but particularly aren't the team to see when you can't buy a stop. Chargers win 56-0.

Dallas Covenant @ Tyler T.K. Gorman -- With the focus of state just not on DC's district I've let the focus go elsewhere in a change from previous years in this column. However, the Knights strong play a week ago that pushed DC to the late stages, earns them a spot in the picks this week. Covenant's 5-3 mark includes losses to Dallas First Baptist (among the favorites in Division IV), DC (among the favorites in Division III), and Colleyville Covenant. While the other Covenant is not a favorite they tested Lubbock Christian all the way to the final horn last week. The fact that the Knights held an offense that scored 45 against Lubbock Christian to just 13 points means the Knights are going to be game for the fight come November. The Crusaders are looking for a 3rd win in a season for the first time since 2018. Two non-district wins and a bushel of points scored in the losses pointed to better things ahead for TKG. However, the district slate has not been kind at 0-3. They've been shutout by two different Chargers and lost in 3OT to Tyler All Saints. Covenant seems to play better at home so the trip to Tyler must be overcome, but I can't see the Crusaders scoring enough to make this one interesting at the end. Knights win 33-12.

Arlington Pantego Christian @ Lubbock Christian -- The Eagles are still a member of the "Big 3" in Division III. DC, Lubbock Christian, and Holy Cross, appear to be the main choices for district titles and 3 of the 4 semifinalists. Though Colleyville Covenant nearly pushed them out of that trio last week. The Eagles defense was shockingly porous in allowing 45 points. Lubbock Christian is still 7-1 on the season and having found a way to win figures to be there at the end. They're averaging over 40 points per game on the year so keeping up on the scoreboard is the Panthers best chance. Pantego's 6-0 start to the season did have them tabbed for the next tier of contenders. The loss last time out to Lake Country certainly hurt those chances of breaking into the top 3. The Panthers have not scored with the same regularity as the Eagles, but can maybe find a way to slow the Eagle attack like they did Shelton in what was a small upset at the time. With the long road to Lubbock in front of them, I can't expect the Panthers to punch back with the same gusto that Colleyville Covenant did. Eagles win 42-28.

Fort Worth Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- Division II appeared to be wide open at the start of the year as Liberty departed for Division I. The Saints filled that void immediately with a win over Parish Episcopal and then backed it up by defeating Prestonwood too. At 8-0 and averaging 40 points per game against a difficult schedule, its hard to see anyone else as the current favorite in Division II. The long road trip to Midland last week was probably the biggest hurdle between them and an undefeated season. The Cardinals though will certainly take their shot. A 6-2 campaign has relied on the FWC defense that has held all but two opponents under 20 points. The two are the two losses. They held Midland Christian to just 21, but were blown out by Second Baptist. If the Cardinals can find the endzone, they can help that defense to bridge the gap to the favored Saints. I just don't see the Cardinals scoring enough. Notably Lubbock Trinity is an obvious common opponent to look at and All Saints scored 43 while FWC managed just 17. It was a win for the Cardinals, but they need a lot more than 17 to win this one. Saints win, 35-12.

Houston Lutheran South @ The Woodlands Christian -- Division II's best intrigue is in District 4. The Warriors escaped attention for much of the year. They piled up non-district wins over good UIL squads but the lack of common opponents made those results a bit of a mystery. We (the committee of one) should have taken more notice of TWCA earlier on. Particularly, losing a very tight 4 point game to top UIL team East Bernard. That was the Warriors lone loss on the season before taking on Second Baptist in Week 8. SBS has been the clear favorite in District 4, but the Warriors tested them all the way to the end falling by just 7 to the heavily favored Eagles. Next week's game with Fort Bend seems likely to decide 2nd place and who hosts a Round 1 playoff game, but they have to get past LSA first. The Pioneers appeared to be the best threat to Second Baptist after defeating UIL regular Anahuac in non-district. On the field though LSA managed just 3 points in a 28-3 loss to Second Baptist. The defense though showed promise. They failed to get into the 2nd place mix by dropping a 7-point decision to Fort Bend Christian last week. They're an up and down squad. Allow 62 to St. John's, but keep Second Baptist to just 14 in the first half. Score 54 against Anahuac, but just 24 at Fort Bend. I'm not sure what to think, but TWCA has the better overall results this year and is at home. Warriors win, 38-20.

Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian @ Houston Second Baptist -- The battle of Eagles has decided the Houston area district multiple times in the last decade. Trading district and playoff wins happened in back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022. Second Baptist used their 2021 district loss as a launch point to the State Final, Fort Bend Christian used their 2022 district title loss as a springboard to the State Title. Each avenging the district title in the playoffs. In the MaxPreps era, the 2021 district title and the 2022 semifinal are 2 of the 3 wins FBCA has managed over SBS. Second Baptist leads the series 18 to 3. A season ago, it was a Second Baptist shutout that won the district for the Eagles. This year the offense has led the charge to a 7-1 season. The win over St. John's and the domination of FWC are better than any of Fort Bend's 4 wins. I do not see Fort Bend Christian limiting Second Baptist enough to win this one, and definitely not on the road. Second Baptist claims the district crown, 35-21.

Quick Hits: (Season: 72-18)

Dallas Shelton over Tyler All Saints
Tyler Grace Community over Arlington Grace Prep
Midland Christian over Grapevine Faith Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Addison Trinity Christian
San Antonio Antonian over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
Brownsville St. Joseph over San Antonio Christian
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Argyle Liberty Christian over Dallas Bishop Lynch
Dallas St. Mark's over Episcopal School of Dallas
Houston Kinkaid over Houston St. John's

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