Thursday, October 17, 2024

Week 8 Picks 2024

Another week is upon us as district play ramps up across the state. The high percentage of playoff qualifiers in TAPPS can make some of the games less dramatic than they might seem, but anytime you take the field on game night in Texas its a special occasion. We even mix in one intriguing non-district clash across Divisions III and IV. Remember only half win each week, so treasure it when you're on the winning half. Good luck and safe travels as we finally get a little cooler night for everyone.

This Week: (Season: 37-11)

Dallas Shelton @ Dallas Christian -- A battle of Chargers heads to Mesquite to renew a match-up that hasn't happened on the field since 2015. DC has won all six meetings by at least 38 points. This year is interesting as Shelton actually enters with the better record. The Chargers from Preston Road are scoring over 45 points per game and find a DC defense that has struggled this season. The Mesquite based Chargers have definitely played the more challenging schedule thus far, but haven't done as well as recent DC teams against the challenging non-district. District play started for both last week with blowout wins. DC shutout TKG, 63-0. Shelton rolled up 61 on McKinney Christian in a 40 point win. Historically, DC is better. They're the 3-time defending state champions. However, Shelton is playing the best it has since the 2017 team that won 9 games. Shelton should score in this one, but not probably not enough to get close to knocking off the champions of Division III. DC wins 46-21.

Dallas Parish Episcopal @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The much awaited showdown of champions. The Panthers have won the last 5 titles in Division I while the Warriors dominated Division II in 2023. Could this just be Round 1 of 2 with the 2nd one to decide the title? Prestonwood certainly has something to say about that as Liberty survived the trip to Plano with just a 3-point win. The Panthers have struggled by their high standards at 5-2. Notably, Parish is allowing more points than recent years. Though a 56-0 drubbing of TCA last week will certainly help those numbers. Liberty across the line will not help those numbers. The Warriors have scored 7 TDs in 4 of their 6 games so far. This feels like it might be the changing of the guard in Division I and with the game in Argyle, I have to pick Liberty. The Panthers will not be an easy out though and a rematch in December might loom on the horizon. Warriors win 42-30.

San Antonio Holy Cross vs. Dallas First Baptist @ Robinson -- Among the district clashes is a curious non-district neutral site game. The Saints have not lost since the 2022 playoffs, running off 20 wins in a row. The FBA defense has limited opponents to just 89 points through 7 games. Only Tyler Grace held them under 48 points. The Holy Cross defense has been a strong force for more than a decade, but they've lacked the offense to match the title contenders. This year though the Knights are averaging 47 points per game in a 7-0 start. Interestingly both teams have not had their bye week yet, so this is 8 games in 8 weeks for both. The winner is clearly the favorite in their division, and if its a close one they may both be. I think both teams are the best offenses each other have faced and this one should see a bunch of points. I'll pick the home team...wait there isn't one. Knights win a shootout with just a bit more depth, 44-40.

Lubbock Trinity Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Saints opened the season with notable wins over Prestonwood and Parish and have not slowed down since. Its 101-7 in their last two outings. This may be the year for that 1st TAPPS football title for All Saints. With no clear 2nd contender, its hard to see who will knock them off. The Lions start a run of 3 interesting opponents for All Saints, and if they win them all and claim the district crown it will feel like no one can push them off the top step. The Lions have struggled a bit this year at 3-3, in their first year in Division II. The defense though could keep this one interesting. They held FWC to just 17 last week but could not dent the scoreboard themselves. This strikes me as similar, the Lions just do not have the firepower to run down the Saints particularly in Fort Worth. Saints win 28-6.

Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- The Cardinals host the Mustangs in a game that feels like it is for 2nd place in District 1 and the other host spot behind All Saints. They won't be home free as Lubbock Trinity will have something to say about it later on. The Cardinals were racking up 40 points a week until Trinity held them to just 17, but only Second Baptist has reached double figures against the FWC defense. That is not great news for the Mustangs who have only cracked 25 points once in six games this season. Its not that MCS can't score, but its going to be tough sledding. Their game against Lubbock Trinity in Week 11 could be quite the rock fight. The Mustangs know how to do these long trips, but I can't see them scoring enough to get the road upset. Cardinals win, 28-14.

Bellaire Episcopal @ Houston Kinkaid -- The winner of this is almost certain to make the SPC 4A title game. The Falcons have only been bested by UIL power Gunter and have won 6 straight since that opening loss. They dominated ESD last week after being tested a bit by St. Marks. A season ago, Kinkaid lost twice in 3 weeks to Episcopal to finish runner-up. The Knights avenged last season's lone loss with a win over St. John's last week. This should be a tight battle. Both teams know each other well and could likely meet again for the title. Both offenses should be able to score. Close games mean home team picks, and the rematch may go the other way. Falcons win a classic this week though, 42-40. 

Shiner St. Paul @ Hallettsville Sacred Heart -- Every season this is a big one in Division IV. Two of the smallest 11-man TAPPS schools are just 14 miles apart. They've met 64 times since 1971. This year though, both teams enter with matching 3-3 records and are scuffling just a bit. We never count out the Cardinals though who once went 2-8 in the regular season and won the state title anyway. The Indians have had trouble on offense this year, scoring just 7 in the district opener last week. St. Paul found 42 points for the 2nd time this season in their district opening win. A season ago Sacred Heart took a 31-14 win away from Shiner and they appear to be the favored team here. So with the game game at Sacred Heart will lean that way. Indians win a low scoring affair, 25-13.

Quick Hits: (Season: 55-15)

Dallas Covenant over McKinney Christian
Tyler T.K. Gorman over Tyler All Saints
Fort Worth Southwest Christian over Grapevine Faith Christian
Bullard Brook Hill over Arlington Grace Prep
Austin Regents over Austin Brentwood
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Houston Cypress Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Frisco Legacy Christian
Dallas Bishop Lynch over Fort Worth Nolan
Boerne Geneva over Austin Hill Country Christian
Fort Worth Trinity Valley over Addison Greenhill

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