Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Week 10 Picks 2023

We preview DFW's biggest games this week...well besides the World Series. Maybe a bit of weather to prepare us for the early winter chill of the playoffs. Good luck, safe travels, and Go Rangers!

This Week: (Season: 50-15)

McKinney Christian @ Dallas Christian -- The Chargers continue to be the favorites in Division III, and can secure the top spot in District 2 with a season closing win this week. DC has played 10 games in 10 weeks before they'll get the open date in Week 11. Before the brackets were released there had to be a bit of concern that it could be a 1st round bye and back-to-back off weeks for the Chargers. The chaotic District 1 will provide the opening opponent for the District 2 champion. However, we must note that the Mustangs can still win the district title themselves. The 8-1 Chargers are a tall task given the domination of a Covenant squad two weeks ago that defeated McKinney Christian last week.The Mustangs have showed a bit of offensive ability this season, notably scoring 41 against Dallas 1st Baptist and dominating HSAA in similar fashion to DC. However, the Chargers have yet to allow a touchdown in October and the Mustangs just don't have the punch to manage much against the DC defense. Even with a loss here the Mustangs will have it all to play for against Brook Hill next week. Chargers claim the district title, 48-6.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Frisco Legacy Christian -- The Eagles sole loss of 2023 was to Arygle Liberty. Certainly no shame in that one. Last week was a big road win for Legacy, 28-26 at Tyler Grace. A win here would give the Eagles their first district title since 2013. Strong defense has won the day for the Eagles this season, while the Lions have been up and down. In the middle of a 4 game losing streak, it seemed the Lions couldn't stop anyone allowing 55 and 61 to FWC and Tyler Grace. Since then they've righted the ship, but against lesser offenses from John Paul and Coram Deo. I think the opprutunity is too good for the Eagles here and avoiding Liberty, All Saints, and Midland Christian in Round 1 is a pretty good prize. Eagles claim the district title, 36-26.

Tyler Grace Community @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Cougar's steady improvement has continued into 2023, but the undefeated run was halted by Frisco Legacy Christian last week. At 7-1, a win here would almost assure Tyler Grace of a top 2 finish and hosting round 1. A 3-way tie could still put the Cougars 3rd but the large margin they have over Grapevine Faith should keep them safely in the top 2. The Falcons have regressed from last year's squad that shared the district title. Dunne is allowing a ton of point this year, and that makes it hard to win. The Cougars are averaging 50 points a game on the season, so it doesn't bode well for the home team here. Maybe the grass of Earl Hayes Stadium can slow the Cougar attack, but it just doesn't look like a good matchup on paper. Cougars win, 42-14.

Argyle Liberty Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Warriors domination of TAPPS has been impressive all season. The 8-0 campaign has seen just 42 points scored against Liberty all season, less than 6 per game. The Warriors offense has posted 423 points, nearly 53 points per game. This game closes the district slate for Liberty and thus they can secure the top seed with a win here. The Saints 6-1 mark is only blemished by UIL state ranked Anna so this should be the toughest test of the district schedule for the Warriors. The Saints defense has led the charge with just 7 points allowed in its 2 district wins. The offense that only scored 14 against Midland Christian will have a tough time keeping pace with the Warriors though. The Saints have to find a way to score at least 30 to win this one, and I just don't see it. It was 31-0 in Argyle last season so that seems like a good starting place. Warriors win 35-7.

Fort Worth Christian @ Fort Worth Southwest Christian -- The Cardinals travel the 24 miles across Tarrant County to the shores of Benbrook Lake in desperate search of a win. At the halfway mark of the season FWC was 4-1 having just secured a stirring comeback win over rival Grapevine Faith. Then rivals Dallas Christian, Midland Christian, and Argyle Liberty Christian, posted 195 points in 3 routes of the Cardinals. So at 4-4 a loss this week means FWC would have to beat All Saints to even make the playoffs. The Eagles find themselves up against the same problems. At 5-1 entering district play, hopes were high. Then 102-0 in 8 quarters against Liberty and All Saints has them against the wall, having to win in Midland if they drop this one. The Cardinal offense has better on the season, even if a bit inconsistent. The Eagles have the game at home though. FWC does have the best win between the two over Grapevine Faith. This looks like a close one, especially given the high stakes. Cardinals stay alive in the playoff hunt with a 28-21 win.

Victoria St. Joseph @ Austin St. Michael's -- The last playoff spots in District 3 come from a jumble of teams behind Regents and Hyde Park. The winner of this one will keep their hopes alive as they each have to play one of the top pair next week. The Flyers are 4-4 but riding a 3-game winning streak and the 4th district win would almost certainly get them into the playoffs. The difference in October has been the offense with 37 and 49 points the last two weeks for the Flyers. The Crusaders have been trending the other way, entering on a 3-game losing streak. They last scored more than 14 points on September 22nd against St. Anthony's. It is a home game for St. Michael's so maybe they can get the offense in gear. It appears the Flyers are the stronger side here, but it is a long trip from the coast to the capital city. St. Joseph wins 34-14.

Houston Kinkaid vs. Houston St. John's @ Rice Stadium -- The Houston trio will once again decide SPC 4A. Bellaire Episcopal should be safely in the top 2 at a 3-1 district mark, but a Kinkaid win here would create a 3-way tie for 2 spots in the title game. The Mavericks are 3-0 in conference play and secure their spot with a win this week. They beat Episcopal by just a single point while the Falcons fell by 7 last week. St. John's has won games this year a few different ways. They needed all 45 points to beat ESD last week, but held Second Baptist to just 7 in non-district action. The Falcons defense has led the charge and was the issue against Episcopal last week. Last year's meeting was a defacto semifinal and this year is similar but not exactly. Super Bowl VIII was played at this stadium and will host this one for the 2nd straight year. In 2022, the Falcons scored a 38-28 win. This sets up as the same type of game, in the same type of season in SPC 4A. So Falcons win 38-28 and force a 3-way tie at the top.

Quick Hits: (Season: 63-27)

Dallas Bishop Lynch over Fort Worth Nolan
San Antonio Antonian over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
San Antonio Christian over Austin Hyde Park
Houston Lutheran South over The Woodlands Christian
San Antonio Holy Cross over Corpus Christi John Paul II
Houston Cypress Christian over Austin Brentwood Christian
League City Bay Area Christian over Magnolia Legacy Preparatory
Lubbock Christian over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Fort Worth Trinity Valley over Fort Worth Country Day
Episcopal School of Dallas over Dallas St. Mark's

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