Week 7 Picks 2023

District play is here for almost everyone. A few 4-team districts continue to wait for the games that count. Realignment talk should spice things up soon. We inch closer to the tournament and the quest for a state title continues.

This Week: (Season: 34-9)

Dallas Covenant @ Dallas Christian -- Much like last season, the Chargers go from a long time rival to a relative new comer to the schedule. Just the 2nd meeting with Knights and Covenant's 1st visit to Wheeler Field make for an interesting matchup. Covenant was very game at home last year before a couple of late scores extended the margin to 40. Both squads enter with just 1 loss on the season and the Knights will have designs on a return to the playoffs. An 8 win season was their best in 11-man and 4 wins already points toward a shot at hosting in Round 1. The wins by Covenant are just not as good as DC's thus far. The Chargers are the defending champs for a reason, and nothing has changed that favorite status so far. With the game in Mesquite, this should be a comfortable victory. Chargers win 42-0.

Fort Worth Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- A season ago, FWC entered after a big win over Dallas Christian and hosting Liberty with a chance to plant their flag in a wide open Division II. This season, the Cardinals were dusted by DC and have to travel to Argyle to take on a Warriors squad that might be tops in TAPPS. Liberty is 5-0 outscoring opponents by an average of 41 points per game and scoring just under 48 points per game. Only Prestonwood scored twice in one game against the Warriors defense. With several contenders suffering early defeats that puts the Warriors as the current favorite in Division II and looking like someone that could compete with Parish if they were in the same division. The Cardinals have dropped 2 games this season, both on the road. Lake Country was a surprise loss and losing to DC was not a surprise but getting beat as badly as they did was a shock. Can they rebound in this rivalry? Perhaps, but this is a tall mountain after giving up 58 points a week ago. Liberty looks better than last year when they won this one on the road by 10. So at home? Warriors win handily, 40-14.

Midland Christian @ Fort Worth All Saints -- The Mustangs continue their daunting travel schedule as they head to Tarrant County for the district opener. It feels like everyone is chasing Liberty, so this is a huge one in determining that 2nd place finish and 1st round host. MCS 2-3 start sends a bunch of mixed signals. A 4th quarter lead against state ranked Pleasant Grove, points to a contender. A 4th quarter deficit to Bishop Lynch, points toward the middle of the road. The high number of points allowed to Regents in the opener makes us think they can be scored upon. The Saints played well in a 4-0 start, including a nice win over Prestonwood on the road. A loss to UIL contender Anna, does not erode that start too much. The Saints offense looks to be in position to score a bunch this week. The Mustangs won't get blown out, but on the road its just too much to ask to chase down the Saints. MCS needs to find a way to get ahead early and hang on. Saints win, 35-12.

Grapevine Faith Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- The Lions 2-0 start is a distant memory at this point. Much as it was a year ago. Faith won its first two and then lost to ESD, Liberty, and FWC. They lost a heartbreaker, 55-53 at FWC in their last outing 2 weeks ago. The Cougars are 5-0, and appear to have turned the corner from their tumultuous stretch of 4 coaches in 3 years. Grace has had a week to rest up for this one as well and winning the district and avoiding the top 3 of District 1 is critical for both squads. Particularly for Grace, given the trip East that would be needed for their opponent. A 2nd straight year of entering district play 5-0 has to have expectations up for the Cougars. The defense will have a tough task to measure up to with 158 points on the board for the Lions in their non-Liberty/ESD contests. The Cougars allowed 50 a year ago. In the Piney Woods this year, they should be a little closer. I think Faith is better though. Lions win 38-32.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Addison Trinity Christian -- The Trojans have again won just once before reaching the district slate. No worries about missing the playoffs though since all Division I teams are in. Last season, TCA took out Southwest Christian. This season, it was defending Division II champion Fort Bend Christian on the receiving end of the lone defeat. Its been a struggle to score for TCA and Prestonwood isn't the best or worst choice to try to break out of a rut. The Lions have scored a lot against lesser opposition, but still acquitted themselves well against All Saints and were the only team to reach double figures against Liberty so far in 2023. The Prestonwood is better, but the game is in Addison and home teams always play better. Not enough points for TCA though. Prestonwood wins 22-7.

Arlington Grace Prep @ Bullard Brook Hill -- With each of Pantego and Shelton playing independent schedules in 2023, that left an opening and a logical pairing in the scheduling rooms. The Guard continue to search for that signature victory over a state title contender. The Lions probably aren't that contender, but it would be a step in the right direction for Brook Hill. At 3-2 and having lost to Faith and Tyler Grace, putting offense and defense together is the challenge. The Lions face a similar problem. Score 34 give up 42. Hold the other team to 16, only score 14. So this feels low scoring, and we know this space likes home teams. Guard win 18-14.

Brownsville St. Joseph @ Austin Regents -- The Knights are sort of the forgotten team in Division II. Having won the 2020 state title, but also losing 4 title games in a row before that, then struggling to reach the final in recent year. Regents hasn't lost a district game since 2015, when Hyde Park snagged them. In the years since, Regents has won 43 district games in-a-row. The Bloodhounds lost a stunner to San Antonio Christian a week ago. The scoring touch seems to have left the 'Hounds, and they'll need it back in a big way to over the Knights. Regents at home is the way to go here. Knights win in the cozy confines, 42-21.

Quick Hits: (Season: 44-16)

Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Willow Park Trinity Christian
Lubbock Trinity Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian
Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian over Houston Lutheran South
San Antonio Christian over Victoria St. Joseph
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Dallas Bishop Lynch
Dallas First Baptist over Muenster Sacred Heart
Lubbock Christian over Sunray
San Antonio Holy Cross over Shiner St. Paul
Bellaire Episcopal over Houston St. John's
Houston Kinkaid over Dallas St. Mark's