Week 9 Picks 2023

The road is coming to a end as the playoffs are just a few days away. Lots will be decided this week with a few de facto district title games. Big games in the SPC where the regular season ends next week. Good luck and safe travels!

This Week: (Season: 45-12)

Dallas Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The back-to-back champions from Mesquite are off to a dominant start at 7-1. The only loss to Louisiana State Champion Ouachita Christian. Four straight weeks of 55 or more points says the offense is on track. Back-to-back shutouts says the defense is on track. This week is a significant speed bump though. The Guard finished last season 6-6 and lost badly to DC twice, a combined score of 123-21. This year's 5-2 mark suggests improvement from Brook Hill and they were in the Regional round a season ago. The Guard also have this one at home, which they didn't have in either game last year. Brook Hill shutout Covenant on the road last week, turning around a defeat from 2022. Both defenses should provide a strong resistance and this looks to be low scoring. Maybe something like 2019's 21-3 or 2018's 21-7? Its been a hard road for Brook Hill against DC, winning just 1 time in 12 tries and losing 9 straight. They dealt DC a rare home loss in 2014, but I don't see it being replicated this year. Chargers win a defensive struggle, 29-9.

Dallas The Covenant @ McKinney Christian -- The Knights first season in Division III saw them finish 2nd in District 2 but lose the playoff opener at home. They beat Brook Hill last season to earn that home game, but fell last week to the Guard 36-0. This game will likely decide the 3rd and final playoff spot from District 2. The Knights have failed to score in both district contests so far, but should face a more accommodating defense this week. At 4-3 so far this season, there's been good and bad on Valley View Lane. A season ago it was good, as Covenant downed MCA 48-7. The Mustangs managed just 2 wins in 2022, but have already posted 4 wins on the campaign. The Mustang offense is much improved from last year, which has helped the defense out but its still been a struggle on that side for MCA. Neither squad could stop Dallas First Baptist allowing 121 points combined. This looks like a close one, and the Mustangs are at home. Maybe this is there spot to start the path back to being title contenders like they were in the 2017 State Championship game. Mustangs turn around last year's blowout in an offensive shootout, 51-47.

Lubbock Trinity Christian @ Arlington Grace Prep -- District 2 is once again headed Dallas Christian's way. District 1 will be decided among a trio of teams, 2 Lions and an Eagles. The Lions meet in this one, and Trinity having dominated Lake Country last week can actually clinch the district title with a win this week. Grace Prep still have Lake Country to play in Week 11 so it would go to the final night of the season if they spring the upset. With Grace Prep hosting, this is a Saturday afternoon tilt and that always seems to bring out the strange to me. Grace Prep has scuffled on offense this year and that's led to some underwhelming outings against some average opponents. Any sluggishness will be punished severely by Lubbock Trinity in looking to get back to the semifinals and take down likely opponent DC. Even in a season opening loss to Albany, Trinity allowed just 22 points. Everyone else has been held to less. If Grace Prep scored just 14 against Oakridge and 21 against Cistercian, it won't have enough to keep pace with Trinity. TCS-Lubbock dominates 38-6.

Midland Christian @ Fort Worth Christian -- Another long time rival lines up across from the Cardinals. They played Grapevine Faith for the 15th time since 2004 and won 55-53. Next was Dallas Christian for the 21st time since 2004, and an ugly 58-16 loss. It was just the 7th meeting since 2004 against Argyle Liberty Christian but it was even uglier at 85-13. Now they meet the Mustangs for the 17th time since 2004. FWC has won just 4 of those meetings, but won the playoff rematch last season 28-27. The Mustangs are 2-5 this season but have played a very difficult schedule. A tight loss to All Saints gave way to being shutout by Liberty (like everyone in 2023). MCS hasn't had the offensive consistency to get the big wins this year. It feels like they're close though. The Cardinals appeared to be ready to challenge for the top spots but face a situation where they will be looking at an elimination game with Southwest next week if they can't find a home win. Even at home I just don't think the Cardinal offense has enough given the last two outings. Can they find some of that 55 point form they had against Faith? If they do, I don't think MCS has enough to keep pace. A tight one that finishes right in between defensive slog and offensive slip and slide seems the call here. Mustangs win 30-27.

Frisco Legacy Christian @ Tyler Grace Community -- Two teams that seem to have finally figured out their ails. The Cougars are 7-0 and eyeing 10 wins for the first time since 2015. They're just 2 years removed from a 2-9 season. With a win over Grapevine Faith already secured this would win the district title for Grace. The Eagles have a 6-1 start after winning just 3 games combined the last 2 seasons. Neither squad is obviously favored on offense or defense. The Eagles allowed just 45 points in their 6 wins and everyone loses to Argyle Liberty this year. The Cougars have allowed 139 on the season, but have probably played the better schedule. Its a hard one to figure out given the lack of common opponents. So we go home team. Cougars get to 8-0 by winning a close one, 28-23.

Lubbock Christian @ Dallas First Baptist -- We've attempted to decide Division III District 2 and Division III District 1 so far this week. Next we'll look at a possible title game in Division IV District 1. The Eagles take the long trek East to the Saints Athletic Complex carrying the weight of defending last year's state title. Lubbock Christian is 18-2 the last two seasons having lost in Week 7 both years, and to two different schools each season. Just a statistical oddity I found fun. The district slate has the Eagles at 3-0 having shutout all 3 opponents. In last year's title run, Lubbock Christian took out the Saints 57-13. First Baptist after finishing just 5-6 a season ago is off to one of their best starts ever at 7-0.  Given the opponents left for both teams, this should decide the district title. The Saints offense should be as good as any the Eagles have seen, and the same goes for the Eagle defense taking on the Saints offense. That side of the ball decides this one for me. If FBA scores 35 points they win, if not LCS wins. Saints at home is the pick, 36-30.

Episcopal School of Dallas @ Houston St. John's -- With just 5 teams you wouldn't think SPC 4A could jam up at the top, yet here we are again. The Eagles started the season well at 3-1 and only losing to Argyle Liberty that everyone loses to. Then conference play hit and they were dusted by Bellaire Episcopal, 42-9, and Kinkaid, 43-7. To have any hopes at the top 2 they'll need to win a road game this week. The 6-2 Mavericks are the best choice when you need a win though. The win over Bellaire Episcopal 2 weeks a go was a surprise and puts St. John's in the drivers seat. They'll clinch a spot in the title game with a win this week at home. It seems it will be another season of disappointment for ESD being unable to best the Houston trio. Mavericks win 35-12.

Bellaire Episcopal @ Houston Kinkaid -- The other spot in the SPC 4A title game is up for grabs just 5.5 miles down San Felipe St. at Kinkaid. The Falcons are the defending champs in the conference but lost the regular season matchup with Episcopal last year. They are in the title game with a win while Episcopal would have to wait on a possible 3-way tie if they win. The Knights defense has limited the opposition to just 11 points per game this season on the road to 7-1. Given that St. John's scored 33, everyone else has really struggled against Episcopal. Kinkaid though is allowing just 16 points per game. So a defensive appears to be on offer. I'm going to zig while everyone zags though, just a feeling. Kinkaid wins a shootout 42-35.

Quick Hits: (Season: 58-22)

Plano Prestonwood Christian over Dallas Bishop Lynch
San Antonio Antonian over Houston St. Pius X
Tomball Concordia Lutheran over San Antonio Central Catholic
Austin Regents over San Antonio St. Anthony
Austin St. Michael's over San Antonio Christian
Houston Second Baptist over Houston Lutheran South
Fort Bend Christian over The Woodlands Christian
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian over Colleyville Covenant
Austin Brentwood Christian over League City Bay Area Christian
Shiner St. Paul over Temple Central Texas Christian