The end of the regular season is upon us, and it appears another wet week awaits us. Many games on Thursday to try and get ahead of things. Several deciding games on the docket this week, including two SPC title games. Scroll down a bit for a look at the playoff pairings for next week. I'll move it up to the top once we have a bit more decided. Stay safe and dry this week on the road to state.
This Week: (Season: 60-16)
SPC 4A Championship: Bellaire Episcopal vs. Houston Kinkaid -- The Falcons are the defending champion, having upset undefeated ESD in the title game in 2021. The Knights took a two year hiatus from the top of the SPC thanks to COVID and a disappointing 3-6 mark last season. Now though they are back on top, having won three in a row including the must win games over St. John's and over these Kinkaid Falcons. With just 2 losses on the season to TAPPS Division I favorite, Parish Episcopal, and being upset by ESD. That ESD loss backed Episcopal into a corner and they responded. The Knights haven't been an unstoppable force offensively, but have found the points when needed. The defense though has held teams to under 19 points per game. The Falcons looked like they were headed toward an also ran finish, just 4-3 through seven games. Then a stirring OT win over ESD put them in the championship picture and they took that spot with a win over St. John's last week. Similar to the Knights, Kinkaid has not found the endzone with regularity but the defense has kept them in most game. Two weeks ago Episcopal took a 21-15 win at Bellaire. The Falcons need 30 to win and I just don't see them turning the tables here, though I didn't think they would last year either. Knights win a tight championship finisher, 27-18.
SPC 3A Championship: Fort Worth Trinity Valley vs. The Woodlands John Cooper -- The smaller division of the SPC sees the Dragons return to try and earn back-to-back titles. John Cooper has not lost an SPC counter game since 2019, winning 12 in a row amongst SPC 3A in that time. After a surprising opening loss to The Woodlands Christian, 10-7, the Dragons ran off eight wins in a row to reach 8-1. Only two of the nine opponents reached 20 points against the Dragon defense. Unfortunately it was the most recent two teams that did. Notably, in Cooper's last outing Trinity Valley scored 34 but could not keep pace with the Dragon offense. The Trojans started fast winning their first four SPC outings, most importantly the conference opener against Cistercian primed TVS for a spot in the title game. That head-to-head win wound up securing the 2nd place finish in the standings and reaching this game. The Trojan defense has deteriorated in recent days, finishing with 2 straight losses and 74 points allowed in two weeks. The Dragons have been the best in SPC 3A all year and I don't see the Trojans reversing that 50 point outburst in the rematch. Dragons take the crown, but the Trojans will score some points this week. John Cooper wins 48-35.
Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- Division I seems destined for a 4-peat for the Panthers, but nothing is guaranteed. After the season opener, saw the Lions dominated by Argyle Liberty it seemed that none of the four other teams in District 1 could match the Panthers. As the season played out, Prestonwood didn't lose another game. The Lions have won seven in a row and scored 39.8 points per game on the streak. 99 in just the last two weeks saw Prestonwood dominate Nolan and Bishop Lynch. The seven point outing against Liberty seems a distant memory. The Panthers played a daunting non-district slate and went 4-1. They've allowed just 20 total points in 4 weeks since district play started. The team that won three title in-a-row is not going to be easily ousted from the top step. The results of the season suggest they are still the favorite, but Prestonwood has their shot at the crown. The Lions offense must lead the way to victory, as holding Parish under 30 points seems a fool's errand. Panthers stay the favorite, but these two could see a rematch in Waco down the road. Parish Episcopal claims the district crown in a high-scoring affair. Panthers win 52-35.
San Antonio Antonian @ Houston St. Thomas -- This space would like St. Thomas to go back to its old moniker of the Tommies, but as usual we were not consulted so we're stuck with Eagles. Division I, District 2 comes down to this meeting. Antonian was a surprise semi-finalist just before COVID hit, and came out of that season still winning regular season district matches. The playoffs has been a big hill to climb in District 2 with the favorites in North Texas dominating the crossover. The winner here though avoids Parish until the title game. Antonian is 8-1 with the sole defeat to UIL Boerne and sporting a +152 combined margin of victory on the season. St. Thomas is the lone undefeated team in Division I. At times the Eagles have allowed some points in 2022. Perhaps leaving a path that the Apaches can exploit. This is the strongest opponent the Eagles have seen to date and I expect Antonian to score a few points. The season opening win over St. John's put the Eagles at the top of the expected rankings, and a win over Kinkaid only consolidated that position. With a big playoff seed and bracket position at stake, this should be a good showdown. With the game in Houston, I don't see the Apaches turning the table. Eagles finish the 10-0 season, winning a tight one with defense. St. Thomas wins 21-19.
Grapevine Faith Christian @ Dallas Bishop Dunne -- The Lions are favored to take the crown, but saw an odd one last week in Frisco. Faith survived in overtime, 17-10 while Legacy is faced with a play-in game to reach the playoffs. With the elements of last week, maybe just chalk it up to a tough road game on a strange night and assume the Lions are still the favorites in District 2. After a difficult non-district that saw three straight losses including an offensive struggle against ESD, a blowout by Argyle Liberty, and a close loss to FWC, Faith was under .500 at 2-3. Since then the Lions have allowed just 37 points to their next four opponents and won all four games. The Falcon offense has big play ability and was also a bit stymied by the iffy weather last week. A seven point overtime loss to Tyler Grace keeps this from being a true district title game. On one side, Dunne lost to Grace while Faith blew them out. On the other side, Dunne scored at will on Frisco Legacy while Faith felt lucky to get to 10 in regulation. No blowout because Dunne can score especially at home, but I think Faith avoids the three way tie and secures the district crown. Lions win a shootout 44-38.
Tyler Grace Community @ Dallas The Covenant -- An interesting non-district closer sees two squads that are likely to host their playoff openers. The Knights are assured of 2nd place in Division III District 2 after winning 8 games for the 1st time in 11-man. Particularly the Brook Hill win puts Covenant as a difficult team to beat and will not be easily ousted from the DIII playoffs. The Knights averaged over 40 points a game en route to their 8-1 mark and Grace will have its work cut out for them defensively. The Cougars have done a complete turnaround after the chaotic performance of 2021. While a 3-way might drop them to 3rd place still, last week's win over Bishop Dunne probably keeps the Cougars at home next week. Only Grapevine Faith bested the Cougars in 2022 as they are also at 8-1. Allowing 37 to Coram Deo has to be worrying for the Cougars. Covenant figures to be stronger offensively than those Lions. The 55-10 blowout of Legacy though suggests the run stopping ability may be there to limit the Knights. When you're not sure, lean toward home teams. Playing next to I-635 at Covenant is never easy. Knights win 35-25.
McKinney Christian @ Bullard Brook Hill -- The Guard and Mustangs will enter this one disappointed with how they performed against DC and Covenant. Neither was terribly close to pushing into those top two spots. Expectations were definitely lower for MCA than Brook Hill, but the Mustangs aren't too far removed from a state title appearance either. Moving back to Division III seemed to bode well for both these squads and it just hasn't played out. The stakes for this one are huge though. The loser must travel to Lubbock for a 1st round matchup with the Trinity Lions. The winner still has a road game, but at a more favorable Grace Prep or Lake Country location in Tarrant County. The Guard's 4-5 campaign has seen a little of everything except a close win. They were very much in the fight at DC two weeks ago before being bitten by the turnover bug and seeing DC blaze away from them in the 2nd half. The Mustangs 2-7 mark hasn't seen them score when needed. They've scored 30 just once in nine games. Brook Hill has its own offensive struggles and so I think this one goes pretty low on the scoreboard. Guard win at home though to secure 3rd place. Brook Hill squeaks by a touchdown, 28-21.
Fort Worth Lake Country Christian @ Arlington Grace Prep -- Our final game of the week sees two squads playing to stay home in Round 1. The winner hosts Brook Hill or McKinney Christian. The loser has to travel to Dallas Covenant. The Lions have a longer history at the top of 11-man football in TAPPS, but its been an up and down season to 5-4. They stunned Southwest Christian on the road, but had a disappointing loss to Oakridge in week 1. Score 39 against Pantego, but barely survive by allowing 34. They narrowly defeated Coram Deo and allowed all the points to Cistercian but almost overcame in in a 52-42 loss. So the Lions can do it all, but also can fail to do much. The Eagles are 8-1 this year, but were dominated in a potential district title game, falling 49-0 to Lubbock Trinity despite having the game at home. Seeing Grace Prep go to Lubbock and lose by just 9 can't raise the Eagles spirits. A blowout of Northland, who stands to win a Division IV district looks nice for the Eagles. The Lions have been more impressive in district play so hosting this one at the cozy cofines of unlighted Grace Prep field on Saturday afternoon means all signs point to a Lions win. Should be a closer one than some, especially if the field conditions are not ideal. Grace Prep stays home next week and wins 27-14.
Quick Hits: (Season: 74-26)
Fort Worth Nolan over Addison Trinity Christian
Tomball Concordia Lutheran over Houston The Village
Fort Worth Christian over Fort Worth All Saints
Midland Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Frisco Legacy Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Austin Regents over Austin St. Michael's
Boerne Geneva over San Antonio Holy Cross
Houston Second Baptist over The Woodlands Christian
Houston Cypress Christian over League City Bay Area Christian
Dallas First Baptist over Fort Worth Temple Christian
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