Round 2 includes 8 different Eagles, but just one Eagle clash. Meaning we could get almost half of the semi-finalists to be the Eagles. That seems unlikely, but what a terrible fear we have to avoid. Many district champs enter the fray after a Round 1 bye, and this should be a great week of games. Interesting that everyone avoided Saturday this year setting up a 15 game Friday night with the best teams on the field together. Good luck and safe travels!
This Week: (Season: 68-20)
Division III
Dallas Covenant vs. Dallas Christian @ Dallas ISD Loos Complex -- The Chargers continue to be favored for a 3rd straight title and the 1st week of the playoffs changed nothing about that status. A 63-7 drubbing of Lake Country was actually the most points allowed by DC since the calendar turned to October. The Chargers are allowing just under 9 points per game on the season and this week should continue that trend. Only Louisiana State Champion Ouachita Christian has bested the Chargers on the season en route to a 10-1 mark. The Knights won a road playoff game in a trip to Colleyville Covenant for their playoff opener. Its been a mixed bag for Covenant in Division III. Last year they won 8 games but were quickly dismissed by Grace Prep in a home playoff game. This year it was just a 6 win regular season, but they won the road playoff game to reach the Regional round. The 31-28 win at the Cougars was not a stunner given the Knights win there in September, but given the Cougars play of late it seemed to be a tough road to clear. The losses have been big this year for the Knights. Shutout by Brook Hill and First Baptist posted 43 in a rout. Notably for this one, they were shutout at DC in the district opener, 55-0. The second time around it should be a bit more manageable for the Knights and their play last week points to improvement, but this is a tough hill to climb. Just 25 points per game for the Knights will not be enough to upset the favored Chargers. Chargers win comfortably but not as dominantly, 41-12.
Lubbock Trinity Christian vs. Arlington Grace Prep @ Seymour -- The Lions...um....the Trinity Lions have been the primary contender for who could challenge DC for the title this season. The path to a semifinal rematch of 2022 is clear now. However, the other Lions of Grace Prep will challenge and nearly toppled Trinity on the afternoon of October 21. Trinity took that one by the slimmest of margins, 13-12. For season, its an 8-2 mark for the South Plains squad having only lost to Albany and Argyle Liberty who are both 11-0. The closest of the 8 wins was Grace Prep, but the next closest was a 26 point margin. After a 1st round bye, they'll be chomping to get in the action this week. The football history for Lubbock Trinity is limited, just the 10th season on the gridiron for the longtime TAPPS basketball power. This would mark a 3rd straight semifinal appearance with a win. The history for Grace Prep is much more illustrious having won 5 titles between 1998 and 2005, but its been a bit lean after that. They did reach the 2016 title game, but have not really been a contender since then. Really outside of the near miss against this Trinity squad there isn't much to point to for why Grace Prep would be battling for the title. Early losses to Fort Worth Christian, Southwest Christian, and Oakridge pointed to a long season for the Arlington squad but they turned around a Brook Hill defeat with a road playoff win and now have as good as chance anyone. I think Lubbock Trinity is better but hard to shake that 1 point game from just 3 weeks ago. Trinity wins a close one, 24-20.
San Antonio Holy Cross vs. League City Bay Area Christian @ Rice Consolidated -- The most forgotten member of last year's Final 4 in Division III are the Holy Cross Knights. The Knights opened with 2 defeats against Division I Antonian and New Orleans Holy Cross. Since then its been 380 to 94 on the scoreboard in 8 dominant wins. Holy Cross claimed the district crown and a 1st round bye. With Division III opponents 26 points in 3 games, the defense should give the Knights a good chance this week. The Broncos saw the benefits of winning a 3-way tie in District 4 hosting Round 1 of the playoffs and advance to the Regional. At 6-5 the evidence is clear. Bay Area Christian needs to improve on offense to win this week. They got that offense in spades against Schertz John Paul last week, winning 64-46. Last year saw these two square off in this round and the Knights take a 28-7 win. The offense that the Broncos found last week would give them a chance. However, it just doesn't feel likely given the Knights strong defense. Looks a lot like 2022. Knights win 27-9.
Boerne Geneva vs. Houston Cypress Christian @ Giddings -- I joke that Giddings is the spiritual home of TAPPS playoff football, but this marks at least 10 straight years a playoff game has been at Buffalo Stadium as there has been one every year I've done the picks. A little different spin this week as a Thursday night contests will open the 11-man Regionals. The Warriors are the Division III runner-up from 2022, having been the closest opposition to DC in that season. This season has shown much the same form as a 7-3 campaign includes a 6-0 record against private school opponents. Just 15.8 points per game allowed by the Cypress defense should set them up for a continued playoff run. Given the Thursday opener seems like a nice advantage for the Warriors coming off the 1st round bye. The Eagles (we could not avoid them all) defeated Brentwood Christian for the 2nd time this season in Round 1 and set up a rematch of last year's Regional. Geneva was dominated 44-14 to conclude their playoff run. The trouble is that Eagle squad looked more formidable, particularly defensively. Geneva allowed over 100 points less in 2022 in one more game. The Warriors will score more than enough to take this one and set up a redo of last year's Final 4 in Division III. Cypress Christian wins 48-21.
Division II
Argyle Liberty Christian vs. Tyler Grace Community @ Prosper -- The 800-pound gorilla in Division II this season is Liberty. The Warriors are the only 11-0 squad among 11-man private schools in the state (with help from some 1st round byes keeping a couple at 10-0). Liberty allows just 5.6 points per game and only saw teams cross the goal line 8 times for the season. The closest margins of the season were 29 points in wins over Prestonwood and All Saints. While All Saints seems to be the competition for that spot in the title game it would be unwise to look past this one. The Cougars have finally pushed past the chaos brought on by COVID and significant turmoil in the coaching staff. Tyler Grace is 9-1 having only dropped a tight 2-point game to Frisco Legacy. Despite that success, the Cougars are allowing over 3 times as many points as Liberty with 21.6 points per game. They've scored over 48 points per game and they need that offensive form to stand a chance in this one. I think the Cougars will get to the endzone a couple of times and 3 TDs would be as good as anyone has done against the Warriors this year. Tyler Grace has to be riding high after defeating Midland Christian in the playoff opener, but Liberty beat that MCS squad 46-0 in Midland while the Cougars won at home by just 5. Liberty is out to avenge last year's Regional loss to All Saints and should score plenty to get their chance at that goal. Warriors win 49-20.
Fort Worth All Saints vs. Frisco Legacy Christian @ Coppell -- The Eagles of Frisco are the Division II surprise of the season with a district title and 10-1 record. Legacy won 6 games total over the past 3 seasons and when seemingly everyone tied for the district crown in 2022 they were no where to be found. MaxPreps had them as 18th best out of 24 in the Division a season ago. The Eagles last won 10 games in 2013. Enough about the past, this year Legacy allows under 14 points per game and just 9 points per game to teams that aren't Argyle Liberty Christian. The last two weeks saw just 3 points allowed combined, and the shutout of Southwest Christian points to a very good defense for the Eagles. The Saints are 8-2 with losses to Liberty (like everyone) and UIL contender Anna. The 14-7 win at Midland Christian showed the defensive ability while a 34-27 win at Prestonwood showed the depth and all-around strength of the Saints squad. I think the Eagles are up to the task, and won't get ambushed here but ultimately haven't had the quality of victories All Saints does. The Saints are better, but also looking ahead to the Liberty rematch would be foolish. Saints survive a tight one, 26-25.
Austin Regents vs. Sugar Land Fort Bend Christian @ Wharton -- The Eagles are the defending champions of Division II, and no one seems to like their chances of a repeat. A 5-5 regular season tends to sour the pundits on your chances. However, they've found a bit of a groove lately going 4-1 in district play and shutting out a a pretty good Hyde Park squad in the 1st round. They've allowed just 40 points in 6 games against Division II opponents. The offense has been unlocked in the last 4 games as well averaging over 40 points per game after Second Baptist shut them out. The Knights have been pushed aside by District 4 teams in the last two years after reaching 5 straight title games. Regents won just 1 of those finals, but seems to be poised to get back to the final this year. This is 7 straight seasons of at least 10 wins and a win this week would give them 6 out of 7 seasons with 11 wins. The one season they only won 10? Well that was the state title and they finished 10-0 (that COVID season was strange). Only Division I contender Houston St. Thomas un-horsed the Knights this year, in a 51-41 shootout. In the other 10 games, the Knights allowed just 8.6 points per game and in the last 4 weeks they seen just 7 points on the other side of the scoreboard. So a defensive struggle seems on order this week, and I can't go away from that. The Knights have been better throughout the season so they should have the leg up, but it does feel like Fort Bend has closed the gap in the last month. Knights hold on in a slugfest, 22-19.
San Antonio Christian vs. Houston Second Baptist @ Hallettsville -- While I pointed to Legacy as the surprise in Division II, that is probably underselling the Lions. San Antonio Christian was 3-3 having just lost to Victoria St. Joseph and it seemed to be the usual season. You have to go back to 2012 to find the last time they reached round 2 and won 8 games, but that is what the Lions have done since. Last week was a shootout and SACS survived 42-42 against Lutheran South. The Eagles (another one?) are among the usual combatants for the South's spot in the Division II title game. They've earned it a couple of times, but have also run into Regents and Fort Bend keeping them away. The last 2 seasons, Fort Bend and Second Baptist have decided the district title on the field and then seen a rematch in the playoffs. In both years, the district runner-up won the playoff game and a spot in the title game. The Eagles won the district this year so you wonder about a rematch if Fort Bend can pull the upset. With just a 7-4 record, its a little surprising to see that Second Baptist allowed just 12.6 points per game. The offense was just too underwhelming in the 4-game non-district losing streak. The Eagles have posted just under 40 points per game in the current 6-game win streak. The Eagles offense should be too much for the upstart Lions, but San Antonio Christian has to feel good about their direction. Maybe they can keep it interesting, but Second Baptist pulls away late. Eagles win 36-14.
Quick Hits: (Season: 92-30)
Division I
Dallas Parish Episcopal over Tomball Concordia Lutheran
San Antonio Antonian over Addison Trinity Christian
Plano Prestonwood Christian over Houston St. Pius X
Houston St. Thomas over Dallas Bishop Lynch High School
Division IV
Dallas First Baptist over Fort Worth Temple Christian
Houston Northland Christian over Temple Central Texas Christian
Hallettsville Sacred Heart over Muenster Sacred Heart
Lubbock Christian School over Bryan Brazos Christian School
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