Week 11 Picks 2023

The end of the regular season is upon us and several decisive games on the docket this week, including two SPC title games. The chill is in the air and the playoffs start in a week. We'll try to get the matchups posted as we get them on this page. Good luck and safe travels on the road to state.

This Week: (Season: 54-17)

SPC 4A Championship: Bellaire Episcopal vs. Houston Kinkaid @ Houston's TDECU Stadium -- The Falcons are looking for a 3rd straight crown in this division. This will be the 4th meeting in the last two seasons for Kinkaid and Episcopal. Kinkaid only won the title game of the three previous matches. This year the Knights raced to a 21 point lead before the Falcons tied the game, but Episcopal won out in the end. The Knights are 8-1 on the season having won their last time out over Kinkaid. The only loss was to St. John's and thanks to a 3-way tie it wound up not mattering at all. The Falcons are 7-3 thanks to a strong defense, allowing just 19 points per game. Even the losses have limited the opposition. If not for the 42-35 loss to the Knights already this season, I'd say 30 points wins it for the Falcons. With the weather looking good this weekend I think the Knights don't fall in last year's trap. Episcopal scored just 6 in last year's title game. Knights claim the title from the defending champs, 39-28.

SPC 3A Championship: Fort Worth Trinity Valley vs. Houston Christian @ Bedford's Pennington Field -- The John Cooper Dragons have been pushed off the top step after winning the 2021 and 2022 SPC 3A titles. The Trojans avenged last year's title game defeat two weeks ago with a 37-28 win over the Dragons. Trinity Valley is 8-1 on the season with the lone loss coming to...Houston Christian. The Mustangs are 8-2 with losses to St. John's and Cypress Christian having lit up the scoreboard to the tune of 35 points per game while allowing just 16 on defense. This fits perfectly with the result from September, Mustangs 34 Trojans 22. The Trinity Valley output is about the same, scoring 43 points per game and allowing just 18. So expect a close one here. We'll go with the cliche, "hard to beat a team twice." Trojans turn the tables and claim the title, 35-28.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- The champions of TAPPS Division I for the last 4 seasons gets ready for another playoff run. The Panthers are 6-3 on the season and haven't lost to a TAPPS opponent since falling in the regular season finale to Nolan in 2020. This game actually feels similar to that one. Parish was the favorite, but hadn't looked as dominant as some years. The Lions take their shot at the district title having scored 70 and 69 in back-to-back weeks. A season ago Prestonwood scored just 14 points in each of two meetings with Parish last season. The offense must lead the Lions if they're going to spring the upset. The Panthers will score, so Prestonwood must answer. I don't think Prestonwood will get blown out this time, but at home on the blue turf Parish is still the champs. Panthers win 34-30.

Houston St. Thomas @ San Antonio Antonian -- The championship of District 2 in Division I comes to this match. The winner avoids Parish (or Prestonwood if they beat them) until the state final. St. Thomas is a strong 9-0 having only been held on 40 points twice on the season. The former Tommies, now Eagles, have also allowed a few points on the season averaging almost 25 points against per game. The Apaches are 8-1 entering this one for a 2nd straight year with a lone loss to UIL Boerne. Antonian lost by just 7 to a highly ranked squad. The Eagles played a more difficult schedule this year, including wins over Regents and Kinkaid and hope to not repeat last year's season ending loss to the Apaches. Last year it was 38-35 at St. Thomas. This year, the Eagle offense looks better but the defense still vulnerable. I think the Eagles have improved enough to secure a road win. St. Thomas takes the district title in a shootout, 48-40.

Dallas The Covenant @ Tyler Grace Community -- An interesting non-district closer features the Cougars who I think are locked into 2nd place in District 2 of Division II. I don't know for sure since no one bothered to send out anything about their game with Bishop Dunne last week. I think it was cancelled entirely, but who knows.  At 7-1, Grace is having its best season since 2016. It will be a difficult playoff opener with someone from District 1 coming to Tyler. The Knights got the key win over McKinney Christian to make the playoffs, but were totally dominated by DC and Brook Hill. Particularly the Brook Hill loss casts a lot of doubt on the Knights chances in the playoffs and in this finale. The Cougars beat Brook Hill 23-19 back in Week 3 while the Knights were shut out by Brook Hill. So I just don't see how Covenant scores enough to threaten the Cougars this week. Grace wins 35-7.

Bullard Brook Hill @ McKinney Christian -- The Guard need a win to safely make the postseason, with only a 3-way tie scenario possibly keeping them out. The huge shutout of Covenant makes that unlikely as the Mustangs will need to overcome that big point differential in a win. It was a ugly wait all night Friday to lose 70-0 at DC on Saturday for the Mustangs. How do they bounce back from that one? How does Brook Hill bounce back from the 55-3 drubbing they took against DC? The Guard look like the better squad, but have seemed to underwhelm in the big games in recent years. Really the 2014 win at Dallas Christian was the last big win for Brook Hill. This won't rise to that level, but would start the process of getting up to that level for Brook Hill. The Guard need it for the move to Division II next year. The Mustangs have gotten better this year but still struggle to score the needed points against the top half of the division. Guard wins comfortably, 40-14.

Lubbock Trinity Christian @ Argyle Liberty Christian -- The Warriors have assumed the role of favorites in Division II at 9-0 and having dominated everyone to the tune of allowing just 7 points per game. The Lions have to view this as their chance to show they'll be ready for DC in the semi-finals. These two played in Week 3 last year, a 35-25 win for the Warriors. Trinity is 8-1 on the season having lost the opener to Albany and dominating district play, until a close call with Grace Prep. If the Lion offense can find a way to score against the Warriors it will be a surprise. I don't think its impossible, but 13 against Grace Prep doesn't bode well. A closer game than most for Liberty, but still a tidy victory. Warriors win 33-10.

Arlington Grace Prep @ Fort Worth Lake Country Christian -- Last year these two met with a host spot on the line. This year it is a battle for 3rd place with Colleyville Covenant having displaced both of these two out of the top 2 in the standings. The loser has to go to DC to open the playoffs. The Eagles win over FWC has not turned out to be as quality a feather as we thought at the time. Lake Country is just 4-5 having dropped their last 3. The Lions lost to FWC at home, but produced the best effort of anyone against Lubbock Trinity. A 13-12 defeat to the district champions puts Grace Prep as someone who can spring an upset in the playoffs. The Eagles were beaten 48-7 by Trinity and weren't in the game at all. So the Lions team that nearly upset favored Trinity wins easily, but we've seen a lot of the Grace Prep squad that can't score. Just 14 against Oakridge, 7 against Southwest Christian, 7 against Lubbock Trinity. Those would all be losing outings this week for the Lions. Eagles win at home in a slog, 22-14.

Quick Hits: (Season: 72-28)

Addison Trinity Christian over Fort Worth Nolan
Houston St. Pius X over San Antonio Central Catholic
Fort Worth All Saints over Fort Worth Christian
Midland Christian over Fort Worth Southwest Christian
Frisco Legacy Christian over Flower Mound Coram Deo
Austin Regents over Austin St. Michael's
San Antonio Holy Cross over Boerne Geneva
Houston Second Baptist over The Woodlands Christian
Fort Bend Christian over Beaumont Kelly
Houston Cypress Christian over League City Bay Area Christian