Semifinal Playoff Picks 2023

Just one week left after this one as the combatants try to secure their spot at Waco ISD Stadium to start December. We begin with Division III as always and get the added bonus of it being the one division with no Eagles in the semifinals. Good luck and safe travels on the road to State...

This Week: (Season: 76-20)

Division III

Lubbock Trinity Christian vs. Dallas Christian @ Graham -- The Final 4 of Division III repeats last season exactly. The four district champions have comfortably reached the semis winning their Regional games by an average 41.75 points. The Chargers are the defending champions of the Division and looking to win 3-in-a-row after winning the Division II title in 2021. At 11-1, its been a dominant season for DC allowing less than 10 points per game. Even in defeating the Chargers, Ouachita Christian scored just 17 points. The Lions are 9-2, dropping the opener by a single point to UIL 2A undefeated Albany and being dominated (like everyone else) by Argyle Liberty. Trinity is finishing its 1st decade of varsity football after a long run a basketball only power and has quickly ascended to the top of its division. The Chargers scored early and often in their 2nd round win over Dallas Covenant while it took the Lions a half to get away from Grace Prep. A season ago, in the only meeting between the two schools, the Chargers won 35-0. Trinity slowed DC more than most Division III opposition, but could not produce any offense in a semifinal in Clyde. There's no reason to see the Chargers being pushed off the top step but that's why they play the games. I think DC may struggle a little offensively this week with a little more resistance from the Lions defense. However, the Lions have the same difficulty ahead. Can Trinity get in the endzone this year? Chargers win a defensive struggle, 26-6.

San Antonio Holy Cross vs. Houston Cypress Christian @ La Grange -- The Warriors are back in the Final 4 after falling to DC in the title game a season ago. Cypress is 8-3 on the season with losses to two teams still in the UIL playoffs. Against Division III opponents the Warriors have dominated 200-13 in across their last 4 outings. The Knights have had the more consistent season, entering this week on a 9 game win streak. Season opening losses to Antonian and a Louisiana opponent gave way to dominating their last 7. Holy Cross has won every game since September 22 by at least 33 points and scored at least 40 every trip out. They exceeded 200 points in their last 3 games. Only the two losses saw teams reach more than 20 against the Knight defense. Either the defenses of these two will be the best the other has seen or they'll be over matched by the high powered offenses. A year ago, both squads entered with a strong defense and it was a tight 36-32 Cypress win. The margin should be close again, but the Holy Cross offense appears improved over 2022 and the Warriors may be the slightest bit more vulnerable. I think the Knights turn the tables in an offensive shootout. Holy Cross reaches their first ever TAPPS football championship game, 44-41.

Division I

San Antonio Antonian @ Dallas Parish Episcopal -- Division I's decision to go with all home games creates some interesting playoff drama. The Panthers have won 4 Division I titles in a row, and remain the favorites. Parish hasn't been as dominant thus far in 2023. 2022 was a 12-1 season that finished with a +322 point differential. After starting 1-3, seven straight wins has the Panthers up to a +182 on the year. Its been the theme that 4 score wins became 1 score wins. Nonetheless, still wins for the Panthers. The Apaches actually enter with the better record at 9-2 but a slightly worse point differential at +157. They played almost identical games with TCA both allowing 28 while Parish scored 1 more point. I think Parish is as vulnerable as anytime in the last 4 seasons, but still should best Antonian at home. Panthers back to the title game, 42-27.

Plano Prestonwood Christian @ Houston St. Thomas -- The Eagles have positioned themselves as the challenger to the Panthers throne all year, and have the 11-0 record to prove it. Division II contender Austin Regents and SPC finalist Kinkaid, are among the list of trophies on the St. Thomas wall this season. The Eagles are averaging over 46 points per game, but should not look past this Prestonwood squad. The Lions are 7-3 on the season thanks to weather and a playoff bye. They're averaging 45.3 points per game themselves. They lost a road district championship game to Parish by just 9 points. Its another road challenge for Prestonwood after dominating St. Pius 56-27 in the Regional. The Eagles took out St. Pius 42-21. St. Thomas playoff victory was 35-17 over a Bishop Lynch squad that the Lions defeated 69-21. Putting all of that together, this looks like a "pointsy" affair. I think the Lions are better, but finding the stops to win this one will be a challenge. Prestonwood gets the road upset to set up the district rematch. Lions win 48-41.

Division II

Argyle Liberty Christian vs. Fort Worth All Saints @ The Star -- The Warriors are 12-0 having allowed just 69 points on the season. Only Prestonwood in the season opener scored 3 times. The Saints are a very good 9-2 squad, but lost at home to Liberty 42-13 in Week 10. The 2nd time around can always be a little tougher and that played out last year. The Saints upset the district champion Warriors in the Regional 37-20 after being shutout in the regular season. Given the stiff Liberty defense, I don't think All Saints can count on scoring more than 21, but should be good enough to keep that in range. The game will hinge on if the Saints defense can slow the Warriors offense that scores over 51 points per game. I just don't see it being enough. Warriors continue to be the favorites and reach their 8th TAPPS championship game. Liberty wins 40-22.

Austin Regents vs. Houston Second Baptist @ Flatonia -- The Knights and Eagles start most seasons as the favorites in the Districts 3 and 4 and thus the projected semifinal. They met in 4 straight semis between 2018 and 2021 with Regents winning the first 3 before Second Baptist took the title game spot in 2021. This year, Fort Bend Christian started as the defending champions pushing the Eagles off the favorite position, but we wound up with the "usual suspects." The Knights are 11-1 having only lost to Division I semifinalist St. Thomas. They've allowed just 11.5 points per game including just 7 total points in their last 5 games. That includes a 27-0 shutout of the defending champs last week in the Regional. The Eagles had a difficult non-district schedule, losing to all of the Houston SPC contenders as part of a 4 game losing streak. Now they've won 7 in a row and allowed just 40 total points in those wins. SBS shutout Fort Bend 20-0 on October 13. The Eagles reliably get to about 25 points, but not much more. This sets up the battle as the Knights offense against the Eagles defense. Four Regents touchdowns should win the game, but its not a certainty at all. I think the Knights win a tight one, 28-24.

Division IV

Dallas First Baptist vs. Houston Northland Christian @ Robinson -- Division IV has just 3 districts so we get a little more variety in the playoff pairings. With perennial power Shiner St. Paul ousted in the first round the bracket has opened up to some new contenders. The always changing landscape in private schools gives us a Division IV semi that would have pitted Division II schools against each other as recently as 2010. This season, the Saints are 11-0 with 600 points scored on the season. FBA has reached just 2 TAPPS state finals, and this would be their first since a winning the 2013 Division III championship. The closest margins on the season are 26 and 32 for the Saints who have crushed all the similarly sized schools this year. A huge step forward from a 5-6 campaign in 2022. The Cougars have adjusted to their smaller enrollment claiming a district title last year, but performing better in the playoffs this season. This would be the Cougars 4th appearance in a title game and first in Division IV. At 7-4, Northland has the most losses of any semifinalist this season. However, the Cougars are allowing just 15 points per game. This should be the best defense the Saints have seen all year and should make for a tight game most of the way. I think the FBA offense will be too much though. Saints win 40-20.

Hallettsville Sacred Heart vs. Lubbock Christian @ Dublin -- The defending champions of Division IV are the Eagles. Lubbock Christian played in the 1st official TAPPS championship game losing to Fort Worth Christian 34-2 in 1978. 45 years later they'll try to go back-to-back and win their 3rd title. At 10-2, the Eagles have valiantly defended their crown losing only to Sunray (still in the UIL playoffs) and possible final opponent First Baptist. The Eagles average game is a 30 point win and scoring over 40 points per game. The Indians have been in 13 state finals since their first in 1990. Sacred Heart is 11-0 for the first time since 2018. That season Shiner St. Paul ousted them in the semis. This year Northland gave the Indians the closest contest, a 23-0 win for Hallettsville. That win looks better and better as Northland advances to the semis as well. I think we have the best teams in Division IV in the semis this year. Last week the Indians shut out Muenster Sacred Heart 30-0. The Eagles defeated that squad 48-0 back in September. I think the champs will get their shot at defending the crown, but it will be a low scoring battle. Eagles survive, 23-20.

Quick Hits finishes the year 100-30