Thursday, November 30, 2023

State Finals Picks 2023

The last week of the season arrives as the calendar flips to December. Only a few get December wins in the TAPPS ranks and it usually means you won the title (unless its 2020). Some new comers mix with 3 defending champions to set up a great final weekend. The bracket was kind and kept us from any ridiculousness with teams from the same area traveling to Waco so that's nice. Just 4 games remaining before we head to the gym for some basketball (love the new team fouls by quarter rule by the way). Good luck and safe travels on the road to State!

Division III State Final -- Dallas Christian vs. San Antonio Holy Cross -- We'll go out of order because we always begin with Chargers who are in their 4th straight state final. After losing to Austin Regents on the final play of the odd 2020 season on the latest calendar day that TAPPS has every played, DC returned to win the 2021 and 2022 state titles and bring the total to 10 TAPPS football championships. The Knights are in their 1st TAPPS title game after ending Cypress Christian's run of 3 straight state finals in the semifinals. Holy Cross has always featured a great defense. In 2017 and 2018 they held a powerful Regents offense to just 26 points per game in 2 semifinal meetings. The Knights scored just 6 points in those two games combined. This season they've finally put some offensive punch with that defensive muscle, averaging 41.5 points per game and nearly 48 points per game in their current 10 game win streak. The Chargers defense though is likely to be closer to the squads that limited Holy Cross to just 20 points in their first two games, both losses. DC is allowing just 10 points per game across their 12-1 season and allowed 3 or more scores in just 6 of 13 games. After defeating Lubbock Trinity for a 2nd straight semifinal, 24-14, it seems the DC offense is a little weaker than 2022. This screams for a defensive struggle given the track record of both squads. I'm going to go the other way and say both teams have a little extra mojo offensively in the season finale. The leanings of this space are well known though and will have to take the Chargers. Dallas Christian wins their record 11th TAPPS title, 39-27.

Division I State Final -- Dallas Parish Episcopal vs. Houston St. Thomas -- The Panthers have won 4 straight Division I championships and is certainly the favorite again as they've been all year. 5 consecutive TAPPS titles would be the record for TAPPS 11-man. Shiner St. Paul's bid for 5-in-a-row ended in the state final in 2022. While they haven't been knocked from favorite status, Parish has looked a little more vulnerable this season. The Panthers claimed the district title by just 9 over Prestonwood and the defense has allowed 40 or more in 2 of their last 3 outings. Prestonwood and Antonian are certainly very good, so no shame in that. The Eagles though enter at 12-0 and should be the best of the Panthers playoff opponents. Both teams have to be encouraged by seeing a district mate score as many as they did in the semifinals, but discouraged to see the opposition scored 73. The Eagles are scoring over 48 points per game on their undefeated run but allow nearly 28 points per game, which is the highest of any of the 8 state finalists this year. The Panthers are scoring 44 points per game, particularly impressive considering the tough non-district slate that Parish faced as part of their 1-3 start to the season. They're allowing 26.25 points per game but that includes 99 points yielded to UIL powers Aledo and South Oak Cliff. Its just 21 points per game allowed in their other 10 games. The opposite of the Division III final, this should be an offensive showcase. So I'll go the other way again, but I don't think the Eagles can push the Panthers off the mountain this time. A surprising defensive struggle sees the Panthers capture their 7th TAPPS title, 23-20.

Division II State Final -- Argyle Liberty Christian School vs. Regents School of Austin -- Division II is the only division not to see its champion return to the title game, as the Fort Bend Christian Eagles were eliminated in the Regional. The Warriors were much improved a season ago going from 2-8 in 2021 to 10-2 in 2022. All Saints ousted the district champion in a district rematch last season, but Liberty took out the Saints in both ends of the 2023 series advancing to their 1st title game since 2009 with a 45-17 win. At 13-0 Liberty has hardly been threatened on the campaign so far with 29 being the narrowest margin of victory this season. The Warriors are allowing just over 7 points per game. The Knights have their work cut out finding the endzone this week. Regents reached 5 consecutive state finals from 2016 to 2020, finally winning one on the final play of the game in 2020. After being eliminated in the Regional Round in back-to-back seasons the Knights defense led them back to the final. Regents has allowed just 14 points in their last 6 games, including 4 shutouts. Outside of their lone loss to Division I finalist St. Thomas, the Knights allowed just 94 points in their 12 wins. They also scored by the truckload too, posting 47 points per game. Regents is as good as anyone on the Liberty Christian schedule this season, but it seems to be a train you don't want to be in front of. The Knights should score some points but it won't be enough. Liberty will even its title game record at 4-4 and take their first crown since 2007. Warriors claim their 4th TAPPS title, 42-28.

Division IV State Final -- Lubbock Christian vs. Dallas First Baptist -- The Eagles flock back to Waco for a district rematch trying to capture back-to-back titles. 2022 was the 2nd championship for LCS, taking out 4-time defending champion Shiner St. Paul. The Cardinals 10 titles is tied for the most 11-man championships in TAPPS history. Their opponent this season is from the other end of the historical list. The Saints only title came in 2013 and this is just their 3rd trip to the final game after 2013 and 1984. The 12-0 season for FBA has been a huge turnaround after going just 5-6 in 2021 and 2022. The big difference has been an offense that scored just over 300 points each of those seasons, now scoring over 600 points in 2023. The defense has improved too but not as much as the offensive side of the ball. The Eagles will be the best FBA has seen this year. Lubbock Christian followed up last year's title with some challenging non-district games. The Eagles defeated Wellington (Skyrockets by the way) who reached the 3rd round of the UIL playoffs, and were only eliminated by Sunray who the Eagles also played this season. Both the Eagles and Saints dominated district opposition...except for each other. The Saints claimed a 47-22 victory at the Saints Athletic Complex on October 20. The Eagle offense also scored over 45 points per game and against better opponents, but the Saints stifled them in the 1st meeting. Its hard to beat a good team twice, but I think the Saints are better. It should be a close fun game for the final TAPPS football contest of 2023. FBA captures their 2nd TAPPS title, 36-30.

Season: 83-21

Quick Hits finishes the year 100-30

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